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Fed’s Balance Sheet Shrinks The Most Since Start Of QT; QE Unwind Hits $321 Billion

Fed’s Balance Sheet Shrinks The Most Since Start Of QT; QE Unwind Hits $321 Billion On Monday, when discussing the two key, opposing forces facing stocks this week, we said that while on one hand stock buybacks will make a triumphant return, as companies with $50bn of quarterly buybacks exited their blackout periods, and the […]

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The Fed’s QE Unwind Hits $321 Billion

The Fed’s QE Unwind Hits $321 Billion The “up to” exacts its pound of flesh. Over the four-week period from October 3 through October 31, the Federal Reserve shed $35 billion in assets, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet released Thursday afternoon. This brought the balance sheet to $4,140 billion, the lowest since February […]

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Europe More Than Europe: From ‘Boom’ To The Precipice of Recession

Europe More Than Europe: From ‘Boom’ To The Precipice of Recession Data dependent, they claim. They aren’t. Mario Draghi at his last press conference admitted, “incoming information, [is] somewhat weaker than expected.” There is so much riding on the word “somewhat.” Because of the weasel, the head of the ECB told the assembled media policy […]

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Why’s France so Worried about Italy’s Showdown with Brussels?

Why’s France so Worried about Italy’s Showdown with Brussels? The French megabanks are on the hook. France was just served with a stark reminder of an inconvenient truth: €277 billion of Italian government debt — the equivalent of 14% of French GDP — is owed to French banks. Given that Italy’s government is currently locked […]

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French FinMin: The Euro Zone Is Not Prepared To Face A New Crisis

French FinMin: The Euro Zone Is Not Prepared To Face A New Crisis Europe finds itself at a troubling crossroads: while on one hand the official narrative emanating from Brussels and Berlin (and, of course, the ECB) is that there is no risk of contagion from Italy’s budget crisis in the European Union, on the […]

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Weekly Commentary: “Whatever They Want” Coming Home to Roost

Weekly Commentary: “Whatever They Want” Coming Home to Roost Let’s begin with global. China’s yuan (CNY) traded to 6.9644 to the dollar in early-Friday trading, almost matching the low (vs. dollar) from December 2016 (6.9649). CNY is basically trading at lows going back to 2008 – and has neared the key psychological 7.0 level. CNY […]

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“Peak QE”: This Is What Share Of The Market Central Banks Now Own

“Peak QE”: This Is What Share Of The Market Central Banks Now Own After a decade of unprecedented liquidity injections by central banks to preserve the western financial system, global QE has peaked. First, the aggregate balance sheet of major central banks started to shrink earlier in the year, a reversal that took investors many […]

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ECB To End QE In December, Will Keep Rates Unchanged “As Long As Necessary”

ECB To End QE In December, Will Keep Rates Unchanged “As Long As Necessary” In a statement that was a virtual replica from September, the ECB announced it was keeping its three key rates unchanged (main refinancing operations: 0.00%, marginal lending facility: 0.25%; deposit facility: -0.40%), that it will end its LSAP QE program at […]

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Eight Reasons a Financial Crisis is Coming

Eight Reasons a Financial Crisis is Coming It’s been about 10 years since the last financial crisis. FocusEconomics wants to know if another one is due. The short answer is yes. In the last 10 years not a single fundamental economic flaw has been fixed in the US, Europe, Japan, or China. The Fed was […]

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Blain: “We Are Finally Approaching The End Phase Of The 2008 Global Financial Crisis”

Blain: “We Are Finally Approaching The End Phase Of The 2008 Global Financial Crisis” Blain’s Morning Porridge, Submitted by Bill Blain “I found Rome a City of Bricks and left it a City of Marble.” In the Headlights this morning – see www.morningporridge.com for some of the stories I’m watching: Debt Leverage: Interesting quote I […]

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The (ominous) problem with global liquidity

The (ominous) problem with global liquidity Market liquidity is crucial for well-functioning capital markets. There has been a quite lot of talk about diminished market liquidity and the role of machines in it (see, e.g. Q-review 4/2017, this and this). These are worrying developments. However, while market liquidity is crucial for markets, global financial flows, […]

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Ten Years After the Last Meltdown: Is Another One Around the Corner?

Ten Years After the Last Meltdown: Is Another One Around the Corner? September marked a decade since the bursting of the housing bubble, which was followed by the stock market meltdown and the government bailout of the big banks and Wall Street. Last week’s frantic stock market sell-off indicates the failure to learn the lesson […]

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QE Party Is Drying Up, Even at the Bank of Japan

QE Party Is Drying Up, Even at the Bank of Japan Despite repeated speeches to the contrary. As of September 30, total assets on the Bank of Japan’s elephantine balance sheet dropped by ¥5.4 trillion ($33 billion) from a month earlier, to ¥537 trillion ($4.87 trillion). It was the fourth month-over-month decline in a series […]

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The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations

The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations The defaults and currency crises in the periphery will then move into the core. It’s funny how unintended consequences so rarely turn out to be good. The intended consequences of central banks’ unprecedented tsunami of stimulus (quantitative easing, super-low interest rates and easy credit / […]

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The Fed’s QE Unwind Reaches $285 Billion

The Fed’s QE Unwind Reaches $285 Billion The “up to” begins to matter for the first time. The Fed released its weekly balance sheet Thursday afternoon. Over the four-week period from September 6 through October 3, total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $34 billion. This brought the decline since October 2017, when […]

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