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As the world heads towards the start of the winter fuel oil season, crude prices still show little sign of a sustained upward move. Instead, oil seems to be trapped in a new “normal” range of around $40 to $55 a barrel. Shale oil producers have done a remarkable job in adjusting to that change in the environment, but it remains to be seen what the eventual damage to companies in the sector will be once the last crude hedges from the pre-collapse period finally settle in 2016.

With that uncertainty just around the corner, it is little wonder that financing has proven challenging for many shale firms. What might be more surprising though is where the financing that is available is actually coming from. Unlike in the past, many shale firms are having great difficulty tapping financing from either banks or public equity markets. Instead shale firms are turning to private equity firms and other unconventional sources of financing. In a report earlier this year, Reuters noted that there was $44 billion in high yield debt and share sales for the first half of 2015. That issuance though has increasingly become unfeasible as the much hoped-for fast rebound in oil prices has failed to materialize.

This lack of funding has created opportunities for patient and deep pocketed private equity firms. Asset sales, M&A deals, and bankruptcies have all been relatively limited thus far in the oil price fiasco in part because many firms had strong hedge positions, committed bank revolvers, and perhaps most importantly, because the spread between bid and ask prices on assets was wide.

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Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Prices

October 26, 2015

Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Prices

We are a little more than a month away from OPEC’s next meeting, which will be held in Vienna on December 4, 2015.

OPEC altered the course of the oil markets last year when it decided to cast aside its traditional role of maintaining balance through production cuts. Instead it pursued a strategy of fighting for market share, contributing to an immediate rout in oil prices. WTI and Brent then went on to dive below $50 in the weeks following OPEC’s decision.

OPEC is widely expected to continue its current strategy at its next meeting, and as such, no rebound in oil prices is expected, at least not because of the results of the group’s meeting in Vienna.

But that raises a question about what the world of oil expects from OPEC: Why is it that the responsibility for balancing the market falls on OPEC? Why should OPEC be the one to fix the imbalances in the global crude oil trade?

On the one hand, it makes a certain degree of sense that market watchers anticipated adjustment from OPEC. After all, the group has historically coordinated its production levels in an effort to control prices, or at least influence them. They could cut their collective production target to boost prices, and vice versa.

However, there is an element of imperialism and superiority in the expectation that the burden should fall on OPEC, which is largely made up of producers from the Middle East. It is a bizarre mentality to think that private companies deserve to seize as much market share as they can manage, after which OPEC producers can take what is left. Steven Kopits, President of Princeton Energy Advisors, laid out the concept very nicely in a Platts article earlier this year, in which he says the expression “call on OPEC” should be scrapped.

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Saudi, US Oil Inventories Hit Record High as Demand Fizzles

October 20, 2015

Saudi, US Oil Inventories Hit Record High as Demand Fizzles

The amount of oil in storage globally, not including the various “strategic petroleum reserves” in the US, China, Europe, Japan, and other locations, has grown to staggering proportions this year, as oversupply drowns out tepid demand.

In the US, oil storage is seasonal. A big buildup starting late fall gets Americans and their favorite gas or diesel sipping or guzzling toys or clunkers through “driving season” – late spring and summer – when somehow everyone has to drive somewhere. After driving season, petroleum stocks fall. This pattern has played out this year as well, but with a difference.

Last week, the EIA reported that crude oil stocks rose 7.6 million barrels to 468.6 million barrels, the highest for this time of the year since records have been kept. Crude oil stocks are now 98 million barrels higher than they were last year at this time, when they were already bouncing into the upper end of the 5-year range.

This chart from the EIA shows the out-of-whack relationship between the five-year range (gray area) and the weekly buildup (blue line) this time around:

Instead of getting better somehow, this situation simply got worse over driving season. At the peak of the buildup this year, crude oil stocks were 22.5% higher than a year earlier. Now they’re 26.4% higher than they were at this time last year.

If the inventory buildup this fall, winter, and spring continues in this manner from today’s much higher starting point, we can look forward to a fiasco on the storage front – and on the pricing front. Because at this rate, by April, we’ll be having oil coming out of our ears!

But this is a global issue for producers (or conversely, an opportunity for oil consumers). Here’s Saudi Arabia, which has been pumping oil at record levels to maintain its market share against Russia and the boys from the oil patch in the US and Canada: its inventories are ballooning too.

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Too Many Wildcards For Oil Markets To Settle Yet

October 6, 2015

Too Many Wildcards For Oil Markets To Settle Yet

Could the price of oil be a value such that the current quantity produced exceeds the current quantity consumed? The answer is yes, and indeed that has been the case for much of the past year.

Suppose, for illustration, that even at a price of $40, there would be enough producers with sunk costs on projects already begun who would be willing to bring sufficient oil to the market to fully meet current consumption. But suppose further that at a price of $40, few new investments are undertaken, so that next year supply is much lower than it is this year, such that next year’s production would equal next year’s demand at a price of $60.

What’s wrong with this picture? Under the above scenario, if you were to buy oil today at $40, store it for a year, and sell it next year for $60, you’d make a huge profit. And if right-minded capitalists tried to do exactly that in huge volumes, the price of oil today would be bid up above $40, as the inventory demand is added to current consumption demand. As that oil is sold next year, it would bring the price next year below $60. In equilibrium, the difference between this year’s price and next year’s expected price should be close to the storage cost.

That arbitrage is clearly an important aspect of what has been going on over the last year. In response to lower prices, capital expenditures in the oil patch are being slashed. The number of drilling rigs active in the U.S. areas associated with tight oil production is only 43 percent of its level a year ago.

Number of active oil rigs in counties associated with the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Niobrara plays, monthly Jan 2007 to Aug 2015. Data source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report.

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Whatever Happened to Peak Oil?

September 16, 2015

Whatever Happened to Peak Oil?

Whatever happened to “peak oil” – the assertion that the rate at which oil is extracted from the Earth is nearing a maximum or peak level? With falling oil and gasoline prices and a boom of new oil development in the United States and elsewhere, concern about global oil supplies have faded from public view.

But have concerns about peak oil really disappeared? What key factors have changed in the oil industry, and what challenges remain? Are we entering a new era of “abundance” or are the risks of the world’s dependence on oil rising?

Guests:

Jeremy Gilbert – principal, Barrelmore Ltd; former chief petroleum engineer, BP
John Kingston – president, McGraw Hill Financial Global Institute; former director of news, Platts (energy information division of McGraw-Hill)
Steve Andrews – co-founder, Association for the Study of Peak Oil USA

Key Questions:

Cost: What are the trends regarding costs to maintain global oil production now and in the future? Are costs of developing new oil rising or are fracking and other technologies driving production costs down? Do falling prices mean that oil is getting cheaper?

Demand: What are the trends regarding global oil demand? Will oil consumption peak because of a peak in demand as much as supply? How are demand and supply interconnected?

Supply: What is the outlook for global supply? How will trends regarding costs and price volatility affect global supply? How much does price affect the outlook for supply? Do prices need to keep rising to maintain supply?

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This Week In Energy: The Growing Threat From China

August 16, 2015

This Week In Energy: The Growing Threat From China

Oil prices dropped to new six-year lows this week as WTI dipped below $42 per barrel. The big piece of news this week was the currency depreciation in China. It seems we are talking more and more these days about the warning signs coming from China’s economy and how the trouble there is depressing oil prices. In June and July, it was the stock market crash, and this week it is the currency depreciation. The yuan dropped 3 percent by the end of the week after stabilizingat 6.3975 per dollar.

The move to devalue the yuan was aimed at providing a jolt to Chinese exports. But a more pessimistic take on the move is that China’s economy is starting to raise some red flags. The grip that the central government has had on the economy appears to be slipping. The Chinese government has carefully crafted a reputation of control, backed up by two decades of phenomenal growth.

Presiding over such a period of unprecedented economic expansion has created an aura of invincibility and inevitability. But the economy is starting to appear fragile, with high levels of provincial debt, an inflated stock market, and growing unease about environmental pollution that could force the government to pullback on growth. To make matters worse, the port city of Tianjin suffered a massive explosion this week that killed dozens of people and spewed toxic chemicals into the air. The incident is emblematic of China’s growth-at-all-costs model, which is starting to run its course as people become fed up.

That is the backdrop for the currency move this week, and the devaluation sent a shock through the oil markets. Oil demand has been growing, but not quick enough to soak up extra crude supplies. A weaker Chinese currency will make oil comparatively more expensive, so could knock Chinese oil demand down a bit, a bearish development for oil.

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Oil storage tanks filled to levels not seen in 80 years

August 14, 2015

Oil storage tanks filled to levels not seen in 80 years

U.S. oil inventories at levels not seen in at least 80 years

North American oil prices could take a hit this fall as there are renewed concerns about a lack of storage capacity.

A recent report by the U.S. Energy Information Agency suggests crude oil inventories “remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.”

The concern is what will happen this fall and whether oil supplies will hit “tank top.” North American refineries are running at near capacity this summer, buying up oil and converting it to gasoline and other products. Several refineries will shut down in a few months for maintenance and there could be more unplanned outages because refineries are operating at such a high level.

Each fall, it’s typical for inventories to begin to build, but “the problem is we are at a much higher starting point,” said Jackie Forrest, a vice-president with ARC Financial, who monitors trends in the Canadian oil and gas industry. A lack of storage could impact North American oil prices and in particular West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for the continent.

“It could cause a bit of a disconnect where WTI becomes a bit cheaper than global crudes, but I don’t think it is going to cause a serious problem where there is no room to store crude,” said Forrest.

Canadian oil production is expected to rise over the next few decades.

The oilpatch had similar concerns in the spring. At that time, some companies began turning to ‘fracklog’ as one method of storing oil. Producers continue to drill wells, but stop just short of pumping out the oil. It’s a way of storing the oil in the ground. The goal is to hold on to the oil until prices rebound.

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Saudis Pump Record Crude as OPEC Sees Stronger Demand in 2016

July 13, 2015

Saudis Pump Record Crude as OPEC Sees Stronger Demand in 2016

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it raised oil production to a record as the organization forecast stronger demand for its members’ crude in 2016.

The world’s biggest oil exporter pumped 10.564 million barrels a day in June, exceeding a previous record set in 1980, according to data the kingdom submitted to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The group expects demand for its crude to rise in 2016 compared with this year as supply elsewhere falters and consumption growth quickens.

OPEC said it expects global oil markets to rebalance as diminished output from rival producers such as U.S. shale drillers whittles away a glut. The strategy is taking time to have an impact, with crude prices remaining 46 percent below year-ago levels and annual U.S. production forecast to reach a 45-year high.

“An improvement towards a more balanced market” is likely in 2016 as consumption grows faster than supply, OPEC’s Vienna-based research department said Monday in its monthly market report. “Momentum in the global economy, especially in the emerging markets, would contribute further to oil demand growth in the coming year.”

Brent crude futures fell 1.8 percent to $57.70 a barrel at 10:51 a.m. local time on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, extending a 2.6 percent loss last week.

Bearish News For Oil Growing By The Day

July 4, 2015

Bearish News For Oil Growing By The Day

Oil hit its lowest point in two months on July 1, falling on a combination of market turmoil and bearish oil figures.

WTI dipped below $57 and Brent dropped to around $62 per barrel, breaking out of a narrow range within which the two benchmarks have been trading for several months.

The ongoing crisis in Greece is weighing on global markets. The Greek government has called a referendum set for July 5th that will largely test the Greek public’s desire to endure more austerity or else risk a more uncertain path. Greece’s creditors have declined to negotiate an extension of the bailout package until after the referendum, and EU member states led by Germany have suggested the vote would be tantamount to a decision on whether or not Greece would remain in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Greece’s banks are closed for the week, and tempers will likely flare as the days pass with people unable to withdraw cash.

The crisis is causing broader worries over the stability of global markets. Although Greece is a small country, and makes up only a fraction of the Eurozone’s GDP, the markets are keeping a wary eye on the ongoing predicament, watching for any signs that the euro itself could be affected. All of this is dragging down stock markets and oil prices.

A second major factor that suddenly pushed down oil prices is the latest EIA figures released on July 1, which showed a very surprising uptick in the level of crude oil storage. Oil inventories climbed by 2.4 million barrels, the first increase in two months. Since mid-April, the U.S. has begun drawing down its record high inventory levels, with refineries working their way through the glut and producers leveling off their production.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand

June 24, 2015

BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand

Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply. Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars.

Neither of these views is correct. The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices. I see evidence of this in the historical energy data recently updated by BP (BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015). Of course,

Growth in world energy consumption is clearly slowing. In fact, growth in energy consumption was only 0.9% in 2014. This is far below the 2.3% growth we would expect, based on recent past patterns. In fact, energy consumption in 2012 and 2013 also grew at lower than the expected 2.3% growth rate (2012 – 1.4%; 2013 – 1.8%).

Recently, I wrote that economic growth eventually runs into limits. The symptoms we should expect are similar to the patterns we have been seeing recently (Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)). It seems to me that the patterns in BP’s new data are also of the kind that we would expect to be seeing, if we are hitting limits that are causing low commodity prices.

One of our underlying problems is that energy costs that have risen faster than most worker’s wages since 2000. Another underlying problem has to do with globalization. Globalization provides a temporary benefit. In the last 20 years, we greatly ramped up globalization, but we are now losing the temporary benefit globalization brings. We find we again need to deal with the limits of a finite world and the constraints such a world places on growth.

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Gas prices ‘way beyond’ where oil rebound should have them: BMO

June 22, 2015

Gas prices ‘way beyond’ where oil rebound should have them: BMO

It’s not just you: Gas prices are much higher than they should be, energy experts say

Gas prices are up by more than a third since the start of the year, a figure much higher than one would expect based on the slight rebound in oil prices, Bank of Montreal’s chief economist says.

Doug Porter noted Thursday that while everything connected to crude oil has looked execrable since the slowdown that started last fall, Canadian gas prices have been especially loopy because of the impact of the Canadian dollar.

A lot of the gasoline used in Canada is refined and processed in the U.S., where refineries price the base commodity in U.S. dollars. That makes Canadian pump prices doubly sensitive because they are heavily impacted by the value of the Canadian dollar.

Gas price jump ‘doesn’t make sense’ experts say

If you balance out the impact of currency fluctuations, “converting oil prices into Canadian-dollar suggests that the jump in gasoline has gone way beyond the move in crude,” Porter wrote. “So what’s up?”

It’s a question many Canadians have been asking themselves, with the average price of a litre of gasoline at $1.20 across the country. Porter noted there are indeed plenty of valid reasons for gas prices to be up a bit. In addition to the small rebound in crude oil, there are seasonal factors at play.

“In each of the past two years, the annual highs for gasoline prices were hit in the fourth week of June,” Porter said. We are right on track for that to happen again this year.

Demand is up

And demand for gasoline is legitimately higher too. Phil Flynn, the senior market analyst at energy research firm Price Futures Group in Chicago, said cheap oil prices last fall compelled most Americans to do what they normally do when that happens — drive more. “When oil prices crashed it stirred demand,” he said in an interview. “It’s the oldest story in the market.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Oil: Myth Or Coming Reality?

June 16, 2015

Peak Oil: Myth Or Coming Reality?

In 1956, a geoscientist named M. King Hubbert formulated a theory which suggested that U.S. oil production would eventually reach a point at which the rate of oil production would stop growing. After production hit that peak, it would enter terminal decline. The resulting production profile would resemble a bell curve and the point of maximum production would be identified as Peak Oil, a point of no return.

The original peak oil curve
Image Source: Cornell University

Hubbert first predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 and then start declining rapidly. His prediction turned out to be partly true, as U.S. crude oil production peaked that same year, not to be eclipsed again until the shale boom began.

Annual crude oil production (in thousands of barrels per year) for entire United States, with contributions from individual regions as indicated.

“The end of the oil age is in sight, if present trends continue production will peak in 1995 — the deadline for alternative forms of energy that must replace petroleum in the sharp drop-off that follows.” This is what Hubbert had to say in 1974, based on 628 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. However, his prediction didn’t turn out to be true, as global oil production continues to surge, thanks to new oilfield discoveries and improved exploration and drilling technology.

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The Dark Side Of The Shale Bust

June 16, 2015

The Dark Side Of The Shale Bust

The fallout of the collapse in oil prices has a lot of side effects apart from the decline of rig counts and oil flows.

Oil production in North Dakota has exploded over the last five years, from negligible levels before 2010 to well over a million barrels per day, making North Dakota the second largest oil producing state in the country.

But the bust is leaving towns like Williston, North Dakota stretched extremely thin as it tries to deal with the aftermath. Williston is coping with $300 million in debt after having leveraged itself to buildup infrastructure to deal with the swelling of people and equipment heading for the oil patch. Roads, schools, housing, water-treatment plants and more all cost the city a lot of money, expected to be paid off with revenues from oil production that are suddenly not flowing into local and state coffers the way they once were.

Williams County Commissioner Dan Kalil says that a lot of unemployed people who flocked to North Dakota are left in the wake of the bust, something that the local government has to sort out. “We attracted everyone who had failed in Sacramento, everyone who failed in Phoenix, everyone who failed in Las Vegas, everybody who had failed in Houston, everyone who failed in Florida,” Kalil said in a June 3 interview with WHQR.org. “And they all came here with unrealistic expectations. And it’s really frustrating for those of us left to clean up the mess.”

Output is still only slightly off its all-time high of 1.2 million barrels per day, which it hit in December 2014. But more declines are expected with drillers pulling their rigs and crews from the field. Rig counts in North Dakota have fallen to just 76, as of June 12, far below the 130 or so that state officials believe is needed to keep production flat.

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Don’t Believe The Hype On U.S. Shale Growth

June 15, 2015

Don’t Believe The Hype On U.S. Shale Growth

The OPEC Free Fall

There is a popular narrative going around that I want to address in today’s article. Last November, after several months of plummeting crude oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met to discuss the oil production quotas for each country in the months ahead. Many expected OPEC to cut production in order to shore up crude prices that had been falling since summer. This was the strategy favored by OPEC’s poorer members, as many require oil prices at $100/barrel (bbl) in order to balance government budgets.

Instead, OPEC announced that they would continue pumping at the same rate. They chose to defend market share against the surge of supply from U.S. shale producers, and in doing so the fall in the price of crude oil accelerated. A look at the U.S. rig count shows the swift impact to U.S. shale drillers in the aftermath of that meeting:

Rig counts went into free-fall after it became clear that OPEC was not interested in propping up the price of oil for the benefit of rapidly expanding shale oil producers. While that approach hurt OPEC’s income in the short term, it also immediately impacted rig counts in the shale oil fields. But — and here is the narrative — shale oil producers continue to make gains in production even as rig counts have been slashed because they are becoming more and more efficient

Dissecting the Narrative

There is some truth to the narrative. Yes, oil production has continued to grow even though rig counts have plummeted. The week before OPEC’s meeting last November, the number of rigs drilling for oil stood at 1,574. Oil production that week was 9.1 million bpd. Today, with the rig count at 642, production is 9.6 million bpd — a gain of just over half a million bpd.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Bit Of Perspective On Gasoline Prices

June 13, 2015

A Bit Of Perspective On Gasoline Prices

To me, commodity pricing today is so distorted that it is almost startling. The media continues its post Goldman Sachs’ bearish calls to pound away on OPEC supply with little attention paid to rising demand. Admittedly, as we end the summer driving season, such demand will wane, adding pressure for supplies to draw down as we head into the fall. Even the EIA seems to think this trend will likely begin in July.

The focus this week in the media is Saudi supply, as it negotiates with India for more supply without mentioning a reason: demand is up. This, even after reiteration upon reiteration from the Saudis that demand is exceeding expectations. Even the EIA has finally admitted it, although as expected, they upped their U.S. supply estimates to over 700,000 barrels per day in 2015 to offset the euphoria. I have my doubts on this call of higher supply as I’ve written before.

I have emphasized the point of waning supply, tied to depletion, for months now, which, like demand has gone unspoken in the media with the overriding narrative focused on efficiency gains or well productivity instead. The bias is very clear at this point and so is the media agenda.

In the near term, shorting in highly leveraged names ahead of the fall credit redetermination has caused equities to decouple from oil prices. Energy prices are at or near highs and even natural gas has recovered some while E&P equity prices for leveraged names are at lows. Look for a substantial pick up in M&A soon which, more than prices, will act as a catalyst on equity prices in my view.

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