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Did Covid-19 Just Pop All the Global Financial Bubbles
Did Covid-19 Just Pop All the Global Financial Bubbles? Once confidence and certainty are lost, the willingness to expand debt and leverage collapses. Even though the first-order effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still impossible to predict, it’s already possible to ask: did the pandemic pop all the global financial bubbles? The reason we can ask […]
When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable?
When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable? Given the exquisite precariousness of the global financial system and economy, hopes for a brief and mild downturn are wildly unrealistic. If we asked a panel of epidemiologists to imagine a virus optimized for rapid spread globally and high lethality, they’d likely include […]
Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech
Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech If you think global demand will rebound as global debt and confidence implode, you better not be making consequential decisions based on Euphorestra-addled magical thinking. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy was slowing for two reasons: 1) everybody who can afford it already […]
The Violent Collision of Market Fantasy and Viral Reality
The Violent Collision of Market Fantasy and Viral Reality When the stampede tumbles off the cliff, buyers vanish and markets go bidless. The shock wave unleashed in China on January 23 is about to hit the U.S. economy and shatter everything that is fragile and fantasy, starting with the U.S. stock market. The shock wave is […]
Controlling the Narrative Is Not the Same as Controlling the Virus
Controlling the Narrative Is Not the Same as Controlling the Virus Are these claims even remotely plausible for a highly contagious virus that spreads easily between humans while carriers show no symptoms? It’s clear that the narrative about the coronavirus is being carefully managed globally to minimize the impact on global sentiment and markets. Authorities are […]
The Pandemic Isn’t Ending, It’s Just the Beginning of Global Disorder and Depression
The Pandemic Isn’t Ending, It’s Just the Beginning of Global Disorder and Depression When you’ve been lied to, you’ve been betrayed. Betrayal has consequences. Unsurprisingly, denying the pandemic is unstoppable and consequential is the order of the day: authorities everywhere are terrified these realities might leak through all their oh-so-obviously desperate firewalls and filters. Why are […]
When China’s Supply Chains Break, so Will the Delusion the U.S. Economy Is Invulnerable
When China’s Supply Chains Break, so Will the Delusion the U.S. Economy Is Invulnerable Was it ever plausible that China’s economy could grind to a halt and there wouldn’t be any consequences for the U.S. economy? No. Many commentators talk about supply chains in China, but how many have actually visited factories in China, other […]
Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In
Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In If we accept what is known about the virus, then logic, science and probabilities all suggest we brace for impact. Here’s a summary of what is known or credibly estimated about the 2019-nCoV virus as of January 31, 2019:1. A statistical study from highly credentialed Chinese academics […]
Has the Global Economy Finally Exhausted its Good Luck?
Has the Global Economy Finally Exhausted its Good Luck? All of these guarantees and redundancies are as illusory as the “unsinkable” technologies of the Titanic. The past three decades of global growth are rarely attributed to luck: it’s all the result of our brilliant fiscal, monetary and trade policies. Those in positions of wealth and power […]
Coronavirus and the “Unsinkable” Titanic Analogy
Coronavirus and the “Unsinkable” Titanic Analogy Unthinkable doesn’t mean unsinkable. As we all know, the “unsinkable” Titanic suffered a glancing collision with an iceberg on the night of April 14, 1912. A half-hour after the iceberg had opened six of the ship’s 16 watertight compartments, it was not at all apparent that the mighty vessel had […]
Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China?
Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China? Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects. While the media naturally focuses on the immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic, the possible second-order effects receive little attention: first […]
Some Practical Questions about the Coronavirus Epidemic
Some Practical Questions about the Coronavirus Epidemic Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases. Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven’t found any information about the […]
Welcome to the Era of Intensifying Chaos and New Weapons of Conflict
Welcome to the Era of Intensifying Chaos and New Weapons of Conflict Geopolitics has moved from a slow-moving, relatively predictable chess match to rapidly evolving 3-D chess in which the rules keep changing in unpredictable ways. A declining standard of living in the developed world, declining growth for the developed world and geopolitical jockeying for […]
Skyrocketing Costs Will Pop All the Bubbles
Skyrocketing Costs Will Pop All the Bubbles The reckoning is coming, and everyone who counted on “eternal growth of borrowing” to stave off the reckoning is in for a big surprise. We’ve used a simple trick to keep the status quo from imploding for the past 11 years: borrow whatever it takes to keep paying […]
A “Market” That Needs $1 Trillion in Panic-Money-Printing by the Fed to Stave Off Implosion Is Not a Market
A “Market” That Needs $1 Trillion in Panic-Money-Printing by the Fed to Stave Off Implosion Is Not a Market It was all fun and games enriching the super-wealthy but now the karmic cost of the Fed’s manipulation and propaganda is about to come due. A “market” that needs $1 trillion in panic-money-printing by the Fed […]
