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Oil spills into the broader economy.

Canada’s economy has split in two. The resource producing economy is deteriorating at a breath-taking pace, broadsided by collapsing commodity prices. For Canada, the most important commodity is crude oil.

West Texas Intermediate has plunged below $39 a barrel, not seen since the Financial Crisis, and Western Canadian Select to a catastrophic $25 (C$33.32) a barrel. Canadian tar-sands producers are particularly hard hit; they’re the globe’s high-cost producers. And the epicenter of this activity is the province of Alberta.

Then there’s the rest of the economy, which is trying not to wobble too visibly as its foundation is breaking up. It is very likely that Canada is in a “technical recession” – defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth. The first five months already outlined a shrinking economy, dragged down not only by the resource sector but also by other weak links [read… It Gets Ugly in Canada].

Now everyone is waiting for the June GDP numbers to be released. Canada is heading into a general election this fall, and the economy is front and center.

But new vehicles sales are still hanging in there. As in the US, the industry is powered by cheap and easy credit. It’s enabled by a frazzled Bank of Canada that keeps lowering the rates. Subprime customers are being aggressively courted by banks and alternative lenders that lust for the easy profits to be made on folks who think they don’t have a choice. And Wall Street makes a bundle repackaging these subprime auto loans into highly rated structured securities.

So new vehicles sales rose 0.4% in July from a strong July 2014, to 177,844 units, setting a new monthly record, for the seventh month in a row, according to the Canadian Auto Dealer. July sales were 14.8% above the past-five-year average. Year-to-date, sales rose by 2.4% over last year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Price Collapse Triggers Currency Crisis In Emerging Markets

August 24, 2015

Oil Price Collapse Triggers Currency Crisis In Emerging Markets

Emerging market currencies are getting slammed by the collapse in commodity prices, a downturn that has accelerated in recent weeks.

The health of many middle-income and emerging market economies has been predicated on relatively strong commodity prices. A whole category of countries achieved strong growth by exporting their natural resources. For example, Brazil’s impressive economic expansion since the early 2000s, and the huge number of people that were able to jump into the middle class, was made possible by exporting oil, soy, iron ore, beef, and a variety of other resources. High prices for these goods led to more growth, a strengthening of the currency, and a real estate boom in cities like Rio de Janeiro.

The same story unfolded in many other commodity-driven economies, from Latin America, to Africa, to Central and Southeast Asia.

However, with commodity prices down dramatically from a year ago, growth in these countries has slowed, and their currencies are sharply weaker than they have been in the past.

In fact, the fall of Brent crude below $50 per barrel has sparked a sudden downturn in emerging market currencies across the globe.

But it isn’t just oil prices slamming currencies. The worries over the Chinese economy, including the plunge in its main stock market this summer, have raised concerns about the vigor of emerging market economies. Worse yet, China’s surprise devaluation has sent shock waves through currency markets around the world.

Other countries now feel pressure to let their currencies depreciate, and if they have adhered to a currency peg up until now, some are being pushed to float. Kazakhstan decided to scrap its currency peg last week, and the tenge promptly lost 23 percent of its value against the dollar. Vietnam also devalued the dong.

The devaluations tend to have a cascading effect, with other emerging markets coming under increasing pressure from their competitors.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oilsands companies feel the pain as Canadian oil price falls

August 12, 2015

Oilsands companies feel the pain as Canadian oil price falls

Alberta companies at break-even point or losing money as heavy crude sinks below $24 US a barrel

A drop in Canadian oil prices this week means companies in Alberta’s oilsands are breaking even or losing money on their operations.

Currently, oilsands companies are receiving about half as much money for oil compared to elsewhere in North America. That’s making it difficult for companies to cover their production and transportation expenses.

The value of oil from Alberta has dropped by 50 per cent since June.

Canadian dollar rebounds, but markets still falling on yuan devaluation

“At today’s prices, the typical producer is just able to cover those variable costs; many producers are above the typical level and they would be losing money for each barrel that they produce, if they are selling at the spot price today,” said Jackie Forrest, a vice-president with ARC Financial, who monitors trends in the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Companies still have other costs to cover such as royalties and debt payments.

A double whammy has driven down Canadian prices since the beginning of July: North American prices have dropped and heavy oil from Canada has fallen further because of increased supply and the closure of refineries and pipelines.

This week, BP shut down one of its refineries for heavy crude. The facility in Whiting, Ind., may need one month to repair. Meanwhile, Enbridge shut down both its Line 55 Spearhead pipeline and nearby Line 59 Flanagan South pipeline, following a crude oil leak in Missouri on Tuesday.

“You have a bunch of demand for Canadian heavy crude that is gone, but it will resolve itself,” said Martin Pelletier with TriVest Wealth, which operates a Canadian energy investment fund.

Pelletier said the markets have been in flux with “selling across the board and panic and fear.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cash-Strapped Saudi Arabia Hopes To Continue War Against Shale With Fed’s Blessing

August 5, 2015

Cash-Strapped Saudi Arabia Hopes To Continue War Against Shale With Fed’s Blessing

Two weeks ago, Morgan Stanley made a decisively bearish call on oil, noting that if the forward curve was any indication, the recovery in prices will be “far worse than 1986” meaning “there would be little in analysable history that could be a guide to [the] cycle.”

As we said at the time, “those who contend that the downturn simply cannot last much longer are perhaps ignoring the underlying narrative that helps to explain why the situation looks like it does.”

“At heart,” we continued, “this is a struggle between the Fed’s ZIRP and the Saudis, who appear set to outlast the easy money that’s kept US producers alive.” This is an allusion to the fact that the weakest players in the US shale industry – which the Saudis figure they can effectively wipe out – have been able to hold on thus far thanks largely to accommodative capital markets.

But persistently low crude prices – which, if you believe Morgan Stanley, are at this point driven pretty much entirely by OPEC supply – are taking their toll on producers the world over. That is, the damage isn’t confined to US producers.

In fact, the protracted downturn in prices is slowly killing the petrodollar and exporters sucked liquidity from global markets for the first time in 18 years in 2014. To let Goldman tell it, a “new (lower) oil price equilibrium will reduce the supply of petrodollars by up to US$24 bn per month in the coming years, corresponding to around US$860 bn” by 2018.

As Bloomberg noted a few months back, the turmoil in commodities has produced a “concomitant drop in FX reserves … in nations from oil producer Oman to copper-rich Chile and cotton-growing Burkina Faso.”

And don’t forget Saudi Arabia which, as you can see from the chart below, isn’t immune to the ill-effects of its own policies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Crude Surges After Surprise Inventory Draw, Biggest Production Decline Since 2013

July 29, 2015

Crude Surges After Surprise Inventory Draw, Biggest Production Decline Since 2013

Total US crude production slumped over 1.5% last week – the biggest decline since October 2013.

Add to that a considerable inventory draw of over 4.2mm barrels (against expectations of a build)…

and crude prices are surging.

Charts: Bloomberg

Futures Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red

July 28, 2015

Futures Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red

For the first half an hour after China opened, things looked bleak: after opening down 5%, the Shanghai Composite staged a quick relief rally, then tumbled again. And then, just around 10pm Eastern, we saw acoordinated central bank intervention stepping in to give the flailing PBOC a helping hand, driven by the BOJ but also involving NY Fed members, that sent the USDJPY soaring which in turn dragged ES and most risk assets up with it. And while Shanghai did end up closing down -1.7%, with Shenzhen 2.2% lower at the close, the final outcome was far better than what could have been, with the result being that S&P futures have gone back to doing their thing, and have wiped out all of yesterday’s losses in the levitating, zero volume, overnight session which has long become a favorite setting for central banks buying E-Minis.

As Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow comments, the majority of Asian equity indexes finished with losses but on an upbeat note, helping most European markets to start with modest gains that have increased with the morning, thanks to the aforementioned domestic and global mood stabilization. S&P futures have been positive all day other than a brief dip negative at the worst of the day’s China levels. Chinese equities opened quite weak and were down another 5% before the authorities assured the market that speculation they would withdraw from market supportive measures was misguided. This began a rally of over 6% before a mid-afternoon swoon.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudis Expand Price War Downstream

July 26, 2015

Saudis Expand Price War Downstream

The undisputed king of oil and gas is making some moves that could change the face of the global refining sector.

In June 2015, Saudi Arabia pumped a record 10.564 million barrels a day, a record level. As if being the world’s biggest exporter of oil was not enough, the desert kingdom is now looking to conquer the refining sector as it has quickly become the fourth largest refiner in the world. “Saudis have moved into the product business in a big way,” said Fereidun Fesharaki of FGE Energy. With Saudi Arabia’s refined fuel contributing to the global supply glut, what will be its impact on the refining markets especially those in Asia?

How will Saudi Arabia Capture Market Share Downstream?

A refinery’s success is measured by its ‘gross refining margins’. The gross refining margin is nothing but the difference between the value of the refined products and price of the crude oil. In case of Saudi Arabia, the price of crude oil would be extremely low. “The crude is so cheap it’s pretty much free for them, the margins are going to be massive. It makes trade flows in products very different,” said Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects.

There is little doubt then as to why the Saudis are shifting their focus to domestic refining. Along with acquiring a controlling stake in Korea’s S- Oil, the desert kingdom is commissioning a new refinery in Jizan which would have a capacity of around 400,000 barrels per day when it begins operations in 2017. Jizan will come on top of Saudi Arabia’s two other 400,000 bpd- refineries at Yasref and Yanbu, and will turn the country into a major global player in the downstream sector, expanding its campaign for market share beyond just crude oil.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

More Job Losses Coming to U.S. Shale

July 17, 2015

More Job Losses Coming to U.S. Shale

With the recently concluded nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, oil prices have already started heading downward on sentiments that Iran’s crude oil supply would further contribute to the already rising global supply glut. The economic crisis in Greece, OPEC’s high production levels and China’s market turmoil have created more pressure on oil prices, making a price rebound look highly unlikely in the near future.

So, with the prices of both Brent and WTI moving towards $50 per barrel, the short to medium-term outlook for oil remains mostly bearish. This is bad news for the U.S. shale sector which is already dealing with rising debt and the ever-increasing risk of default.

A recent Bloomberg report stated that U.S. driller’s debts stood at $235 billion at the end of first quarter of 2015, which is quite worrying. Does this mean that the U.S. oil sector is likely to witness a lot more layoffs than we have seen so far? Surprisingly, a recent IHS study had revealed that the U.S. shale sector has been boosting job creation in addition to supporting around 1.7 million jobs in U.S.

All this as the overall unemployment rate in U.S. has been declining since previous years. But with rising negative sentiment pertaining to oil prices, is U.S. the shale sector prepared to face one of its biggest tests yet? Will the industry be able to sustain another long period of low oil prices or will it once again resort to trimming its workforce?

Low oil prices will most likely result in more job losses

Since the oil price collapse of last year, we have seen how oil field services and drilling companies have slashed thousands of jobs in order to reduce costs and cut their operational spending. Some of the major oilfield companies like Schlumberger, Halliburton and Weatherford have already announced close to 20,000 layoffs as of February 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC Production Still Increasing

July 14, 2015

OPEC Production Still Increasing

The July OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all OPEC Crude Only production data for June 2015.

Crude Only production for the entire OPEC 12 as up 283,000 barrels per day in June to 31,378,000 bpd. But that was after May production had been revised up by 120,000 bpd. So counting May’s revisions and June’s numbers, OPEC production was up 403,000 bpd from what was originally reported last month.

The biggest gainer, by far, was Iraq, up 198,600 barrels per day over May to 4,007,000 bpd. It is interesting to note that Iraq via “Direct Communication” say they only produced 3,591,000 bpd in June, 416,000 bpd less than what “Secondary Sources” said they produced.

Saudi Arabia was up 48,400 bpd in June to 10,235,000 bpd. That is just over one half million barrels per day above their 2014 average.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudis Pump Record Crude as OPEC Sees Stronger Demand in 2016

July 13, 2015

Saudis Pump Record Crude as OPEC Sees Stronger Demand in 2016

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it raised oil production to a record as the organization forecast stronger demand for its members’ crude in 2016.

The world’s biggest oil exporter pumped 10.564 million barrels a day in June, exceeding a previous record set in 1980, according to data the kingdom submitted to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The group expects demand for its crude to rise in 2016 compared with this year as supply elsewhere falters and consumption growth quickens.

OPEC said it expects global oil markets to rebalance as diminished output from rival producers such as U.S. shale drillers whittles away a glut. The strategy is taking time to have an impact, with crude prices remaining 46 percent below year-ago levels and annual U.S. production forecast to reach a 45-year high.

“An improvement towards a more balanced market” is likely in 2016 as consumption grows faster than supply, OPEC’s Vienna-based research department said Monday in its monthly market report. “Momentum in the global economy, especially in the emerging markets, would contribute further to oil demand growth in the coming year.”

Brent crude futures fell 1.8 percent to $57.70 a barrel at 10:51 a.m. local time on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, extending a 2.6 percent loss last week.

China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge

July 9, 2015

China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge

Here is a brief sample of some of the measures the Chinese government and the PBOC have unleashed in just the past ten days to prop up the crashing market include:

a ban on major shareholders, corporate executives, directors from selling stock for 6 months
freezing more than half (1400 at last count per Bloomberg) of the listed companies from trading,
blocking fund redemptions, forcing companies to invest in the market,
halting IPOs,
reducing equity transaction fees,
providing daily bailouts to the margin lending authority,
reducing margin requirements,
boosting buybacks
endless propaganda by Beijing Bob.

The measures are summarized below.

But it wasn’t until last night’s first official threat to “malicious” (short) sellers that they face charges (i.e., arrest), as Xinhua reported yesterday:

[Ministry of Public Security in conjunction with the recent Commission investigation of malicious short stock and stock index clues ] correspondent was informed on the 9th morning , Vice Minister of Public Security Meng Qingfeng led to the Commission , in conjunction with the recent Commission investigation of malicious short stock and stock index clues show regulatory authorities to the operation of heavy combat illegal activities.

… that the wall of Chinese intervention finally worked. For now.

And since this is all about one thing, the stock, market, it is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index had dropped as much as 3.8% to a 4 month low before the news that the cops were going to arrest anyone who used a wrong discount rate in their DCF, when everything suddenly took off, and the SHCOMP closed a “Dramamine required” 5.8% higher, the biggest daily increase since March 2009!

“As China beefs up its efforts to rescue the market, with even the public security ministry involved, market sentiment is recovering slightly from a panicky stage earlier,” Shenyin Wanguo analyst Qian Qimin says by phone

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb)

July 8, 2015

Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb)

The views expressed are those of Dennis Coyne and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson.

blog20150706/

The post that follows relies heavily on the previous work of both Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope) and Jean Laherrere and I thank them both for sharing their knowledge, any mistakes are my responsibility.

In a previous post I presented a simplified Oil Shock model that closely followed a 2013 estimate of World C+C Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) by Jean Laherrere of 2700 Gb, where 2200 Gb was from crude plus condensate less extra heavy oil (C+C-XH) and 500 Gb was from extra heavy (XH) oil resources in the Canadian and Venezuelan oil sands.

In the analysis here I use the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method to estimate World C+C-XH URR to be about 2500 Gb. The creaming curve method preferred by Jean Laherrere suggests the lower URR of 2200 Gb, if we assume only 200 Gb of future reserve growth and oil discovery.

Previously, I have shown that US oil reserve growth (of proved plus probable reserves) was 63% from 1980 to 2005. If we assume all of the 200 Gb of reserves added to the URR=2200 Gb model are from oil discoveries and that in a URR=2500 Gb, oil discoveries are also 200 Gb, then 300 Gb of reserve growth would be needed over all future years (we will use 90 years to 2100) or about 35% reserve growth on the 850 Gb of 2P (proved plus probable) reserves in 2010. I conclude that a URR of 2500 Gb for C+C-XH is quite conservative.

A problem with the Hubbert Linearization method is that there is a tendency to underestimate URR.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bearish News For Oil Growing By The Day

July 4, 2015

Bearish News For Oil Growing By The Day

Oil hit its lowest point in two months on July 1, falling on a combination of market turmoil and bearish oil figures.

WTI dipped below $57 and Brent dropped to around $62 per barrel, breaking out of a narrow range within which the two benchmarks have been trading for several months.

The ongoing crisis in Greece is weighing on global markets. The Greek government has called a referendum set for July 5th that will largely test the Greek public’s desire to endure more austerity or else risk a more uncertain path. Greece’s creditors have declined to negotiate an extension of the bailout package until after the referendum, and EU member states led by Germany have suggested the vote would be tantamount to a decision on whether or not Greece would remain in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Greece’s banks are closed for the week, and tempers will likely flare as the days pass with people unable to withdraw cash.

The crisis is causing broader worries over the stability of global markets. Although Greece is a small country, and makes up only a fraction of the Eurozone’s GDP, the markets are keeping a wary eye on the ongoing predicament, watching for any signs that the euro itself could be affected. All of this is dragging down stock markets and oil prices.

A second major factor that suddenly pushed down oil prices is the latest EIA figures released on July 1, which showed a very surprising uptick in the level of crude oil storage. Oil inventories climbed by 2.4 million barrels, the first increase in two months. Since mid-April, the U.S. has begun drawing down its record high inventory levels, with refineries working their way through the glut and producers leveling off their production.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

New International Energy Statistics.

June 24, 2015

New International Energy Statistics.

The Eia has finally updated their International Energy Statistics with data through February 2015. All data in the charts below are Crude + Condensate and is in thousand barrels per day with the last data point February 2015.

World C+C dropped 477,000 bpd in January and another 65,000 bpd in February for a total decline of 542,000 bpd. World C+C stood at 79,160,000 barrels per day in February.

Non OPEC C+C declined 244,000 bpd in January and another 100,000 bpd in February for a total decline of 344,000 since December. Non-OPEC C+C production stood at 46,656,000 bpd in February.

OPEC C+C, in February 2015 stood at 32,504,000 bpd, down 1,451,000 bpd from its peak in April 2012. However according to the OPEC MOMR their crude only is up 1,000,000 bpd from February to May.

Gas prices ‘way beyond’ where oil rebound should have them: BMO

June 22, 2015

Gas prices ‘way beyond’ where oil rebound should have them: BMO

It’s not just you: Gas prices are much higher than they should be, energy experts say

Gas prices are up by more than a third since the start of the year, a figure much higher than one would expect based on the slight rebound in oil prices, Bank of Montreal’s chief economist says.

Doug Porter noted Thursday that while everything connected to crude oil has looked execrable since the slowdown that started last fall, Canadian gas prices have been especially loopy because of the impact of the Canadian dollar.

A lot of the gasoline used in Canada is refined and processed in the U.S., where refineries price the base commodity in U.S. dollars. That makes Canadian pump prices doubly sensitive because they are heavily impacted by the value of the Canadian dollar.

Gas price jump ‘doesn’t make sense’ experts say

If you balance out the impact of currency fluctuations, “converting oil prices into Canadian-dollar suggests that the jump in gasoline has gone way beyond the move in crude,” Porter wrote. “So what’s up?”

It’s a question many Canadians have been asking themselves, with the average price of a litre of gasoline at $1.20 across the country. Porter noted there are indeed plenty of valid reasons for gas prices to be up a bit. In addition to the small rebound in crude oil, there are seasonal factors at play.

“In each of the past two years, the annual highs for gasoline prices were hit in the fourth week of June,” Porter said. We are right on track for that to happen again this year.

Demand is up

And demand for gasoline is legitimately higher too. Phil Flynn, the senior market analyst at energy research firm Price Futures Group in Chicago, said cheap oil prices last fall compelled most Americans to do what they normally do when that happens — drive more. “When oil prices crashed it stirred demand,” he said in an interview. “It’s the oldest story in the market.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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