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Central Banking: It’s Alive!!
CENTRAL BANKING: IT’S ALIVE!! In his recent posting on Linked In, entitled, ‘The death of macro-prudential’, Stuart Trow of the EBRD delivered a well-aimed broadside at the pitiable conduct of the Bank of England and elaborated on some of the malign consequences of its catalogue of errors. Without wishing to single him out unduly for […]
The Role of Shadow Banking in the Business Cycle
THE ROLE OF SHADOW BANKING IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE 1The process of lending and the uninterrupted flow of credit to the real economy no longer rely only on banks, but on a process that spans a network of banks, broker-dealers, asset managers, and shadow banks funded through wholesale funding and capital markets globally. – Pozsaret […]
Should the Fed Print Money to Accommodate Demand for Money?
SHOULD THE FED PRINT MONEY TO ACCOMMODATE DEMAND FOR MONEY? For most economists and commentators the main role of the Fed is to keep the supply and demand for money in equilibrium. Whenever an increase in the demand for money occurs, to maintain the state of equilibrium the accommodation of the demand for money by […]
The Myth That Central Banks Assure Economic Stability
THE MYTH THAT CENTRAL BANKS ASSURE ECONOMIC STABILITY The world has been plagued with periodic bouts of the economic rollercoaster of booms and busts, inflations and recessions, especially during the last one hundred years. The main culprits responsible for these destabilizing and disruptive episodes have been governments and their central banks. They have monopolized the […]
Does Subjective Valuation Mean Arbitrary Valuation?
DOES SUBJECTIVE VALUATION MEAN ARBITRARY VALUATION? Why do individuals pay much higher prices for some goods versus other goods? The common reply to this is the law of supply and demand. However, what is behind this law? To provide an answer to this question economists refer to the law of diminishing marginal utility. Mainstream economics […]
The Relevance of Hayek’s Triangle Today
THE RELEVANCE OF HAYEK’S TRIANGLE TODAY Most of us are aware of the inflationary pressures in the major economies, that so far are proving somewhat latent in the non-financial sector. But some central banks are on the alert as well, notably the Federal Reserve Board, which has taken the lead in trying to normalise interest […]
MAY DAY
MAY DAY “Japan was the dress rehearsal; the rest of the world will be the main event.” Investor in Japanese stocks, known to this correspondent, circa 2001. “Twitter has taught me a couple of things. 1: there are some incredibly brilliant people in the world. 2: they are vastly outnumbered.” Tweet by @jrsalzman. There are […]
Does it Matter Whether Assumptions in Economics are Arbitrary?
DOES IT MATTER WHETHER ASSUMPTIONS IN ECONOMICS ARE ARBITRARY? Various assumptions employed by mainstream economists appear to be of an arbitrary nature. The assumptions seem to be detached from the real world. For example, in order to explain the economic crisis in Japan, the famous mainstream economist Paul Krugman employed a model that assumes that […]
Wealth-Destroying Zombies
WEALTH-DESTROYING ZOMBIES The hot topic in monetary economics today (hah, if it’s not an oxymoron to say these terms together!) is whither interest rates. The Fed in its recent statement said the risk is balanced (the debunked notion of a tradeoff between unemployment and rising consumer prices should have been tossed on the ash heap […]
Expectations and the Austrian Business Cycle Theory
EXPECTATIONS AND THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY According to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) the artificial lowering of interest rates by the central bank leads to a misallocation of resources because businesses undertake various capital projects that prior to the lowering of interest rates weren’t considered as viable. This misallocation of resources is commonly […]
Is the US Exporting a Recession?
IS THE US EXPORTING A RECESSION? The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates The ECB and BoJ maintain QE Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US After last week’s ECB meeting, Mario Draghi gave the usual press conference. He confirmed […]
Inflation or Employment
INFLATION OR EMPLOYMENT Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009 Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures Given the official policy response to the Great Financial Recession – a mixture […]
The Deflation/Inflation Debate
THE DEFLATION/INFLATION DEBATE “Naïve inflationism demands an increase in the quantity of money without suspecting that this will diminish the purchasing power of the money.” ― Ludwig von mises, The Theory of Money and Credit It is hardly surprising that with equity indices stalling, the financial community is increasingly worried that the long, steady bull market […]
What to Expect From Central Bankers
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM CENTRAL BANKERS The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom As financial […]
