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Quick Take: The Risk Of Algos
Quick Take: The Risk Of Algos “Mike ‘Wags’ Wagner: ‘You studied the Flash Crash of 2010 and you know that Quant is another word for wild f***ing guess with math.’ Taylor Mason: ‘Quant is another word for systemized ordered thinking represented in an algorithmic approach to trading.’ Mike ‘Wags’ Wagner: ‘Just remember Billy Beane never won a […]
Russia Warns West Risks “Hot War” After Mass Expulsion Of Diplomats
Russia Warns West Risks “Hot War” After Mass Expulsion Of Diplomats After a legion of western nations announced this week that they would expel Russian diplomats in solidarity with the UK, one Russian ambassador warned during an impromptu unscripted speech that, by hastily blaming Moscow for the poisoning of a former Russian spy at a […]
The Mind Blowing Concept of “Risk-Free’ier”
The Mind Blowing Concept of “Risk-Free’ier” The Earth is flat Cigarettes are healthy Leeches are the cure for everything The universe revolves around the Earth California is an island Red wine is healthy, unhealthy, healthy… Facts are essential as they offer humans a sense of stability in a chaotic world. For instance, we find comfort […]
Aliso Canyon Disaster Highlights Risks, Inadequate Safety Rules Governing Natural Gas Storage
Aliso Canyon Disaster Highlights Risks, Inadequate Safety Rules Governing Natural Gas Storage A recent report spearheaded by researchers at the University of Southern California blames the largest greenhouse gas leak in U.S. history on dysfunctional management and poor regulatory oversight. Southern California Gas (SoCalGas) is the company that operates the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility near the Los […]
Oil Prices Tear Higher On Middle East Tensions
Oil Prices Tear Higher On Middle East Tensions Oil prices rose on Tuesday ahead of the API data report, fueled by Middle East tensions and dwindling crude output in Venezuela. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) – U.S crude oil exports averaged 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in […]
“I hope for Goldman Sachs’ bankruptcy”: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Game
PHOTO: DAN CALLISTER/REX “I hope for Goldman Sachs’ bankruptcy”: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Game In Taleb’s universe, the fieriest circle of hell is reserved for bankers and neoconservatives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an intellectual brawler, a philosophical pugilist. His new book, Skin in the Game, put me in mind of the final scene […]
What do I mean by Skin in the Game? My Own Version
What do I mean by Skin in the Game? My Own Version When selecting a surgeon for your next brain procedure, should you pick a surgeon who looks like a butcher or one who looks like a surgeon? The logic of skin in the game implies you need to select the one who (while credentialed) looks […]
Stock Market Drop Is Greatest Threat To Global Stability, According To The Economist
Stock Market Drop Is Greatest Threat To Global Stability, According To The Economist Forget war with Russia, China, or nuclear threats from North Korea; ignore Middle East chaos; and don’t worry about global cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure. The Economist Intelligence Unit ‘scores’ the greatest global risk right now is a “prolonged fall in major stock […]
Sucker Traps and the Arithmetic of Risk
Sucker Traps and the Arithmetic of Risk John Hussman has another excellent article out this week but it will be ignored. Mathematically, it must be ignored. In the Arithmetic of Risk, Hussman posted the above chart. I added the anecdotes regarding where we are. Here are some pertinent snips. At present, I view the market […]
Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising
Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising So who’s holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone. One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo’s equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific […]
Find The Sentence That Dooms Pension Funds (Don’t Worry, It’s Highlighted)
Find The Sentence That Dooms Pension Funds (Don’t Worry, It’s Highlighted) The “pension crisis” is one of those things — like electric cars and nuclear fusion — that’s definitely coming but never seems to actually arrive. However, for pension funds the reason a crisis hasn’t yet happened is also the reason that it will happen, […]
Bank Bail-In Risk In Europe Seen In 5 Charts
Bank Bail-In Risk In Europe Seen In 5 Charts – Nearly €1 trillion in non-performing loans poses risks to European banks’ – Greece has highest non-performing loans as a share of total credit – Italy has the biggest pile of bad debt in absolute terms – Bad debt in Italy is still “a major problem” which has […]
The World Embraces Debt At Exactly The Wrong Time
The World Embraces Debt At Exactly The Wrong Time Self-destruction usually happens in stages. At first there’s a binge in which the thrill outweighs the sense of transgression. This is usually followed by remorse, acknowledgement of risks, and an attempt to reform. But straight-and-narrow is exhausting, and because of this is frequently just temporary, eventually […]
What Just Changed?
What Just Changed? The illusion that risk can be limited delivered three asset bubbles in less than 20 years. Has anything actually changed in the past two weeks? The conventional bullish answer is no, nothing’s changed; the global economy is growing virtually everywhere, inflation is near-zero, credit is abundant, commodities will remain cheap for the […]
