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The upcoming OPEC meeting on June 22 is shaping up to be a contentious one, after news broke that the U.S. government asked Saudi Arabia to increase oil production before Washington pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal.

Earlier last week, news surfaced that the U.S. government asked Saudi Arabia to boost output to relieve pressure on prices. But Reuters followed up with a report on June 7, adding more context to that story. According to Reuters, a high level Trump administration official called Saudi Arabia a day before Trump was set to announce the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, asking for more oil supply to cover for disruptions from Iran.

The last time the U.S. government pressured OPEC into adding supply, it was also over Iran. The Obama administration wanted the cartel to offset disrupted Iranian production, after an international coalition put stringent sanctions on Iran in 2012. Roughly 1 million barrels per day were knocked offline.

While the Trump administration’s request might irk OPEC members, with Iran obviously the most aggrieved, the apparent willingness of Saudi Arabia to comply with Washington’s request has ignited furor from within the group.

“It’s crazy and astonishing to see instruction coming from Washington to Saudi to act and replace a shortfall of Iran’s export due to their Illegal sanction on Iran and Venezuela,” Iran’s OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, said in comments to Reuters. He said that OPEC would not simply comply with Washington’s requests. “No one in OPEC will act against two of its founder members,” he said, referring to Iran and Venezuela. “The U.S. tried it last time against Iran, but oil prices got to $140 a barrel.”

“OPEC will not accept such a humiliation. How arrogant and ignorant one could be (to) underestimate the history of 60 years’ cooperation among competitors,” he said.

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OPEC And Russia Prepare For Long-Term Control Over Oil Market

June 3, 2018

OPEC And Russia Prepare For Long-Term Control Over Oil Market

In a tight oil market reacting with price gains to concerns about supply shortages, the leaders of the OPEC and non-OPEC nations part of the production cut deal—Saudi Arabia and Russia—hinted last week that easing the cuts was an option that they had discussed and that would be up for talks at the OPEC and allies’ meeting in less than a month.

Oil prices plunged from three-and-a-half-year highs on reports that the Saudis and Russia may add as much as 1 million bpd of supply to offset crumbling Venezuelan production and possible loss of Iranian oil exports with the return of the U.S. sanctions.

Many analysts don’t think the group would add the reported 1 million bpd of supply, but the oil market lapped up the news and concerns about a return to oversupply have dominated the OPEC chatter news flow for nearly a week. As the June 22 meeting is drawing closer, oil prices will likely react to any new hint, comment, or report about OPEC’s efforts to “address consumer anxiety over security of oil supplies.”

The latest of those reports says that OPEC and non-OPEC are set to stick to the production cuts through the end of 2018, but will be ready to “adjust” supply to address possible shortages.

The group of producers part of the pact “is not ready yet to fully lift controls,” a Gulf source familiar with the Saudi thinking has told Reuters, adding that “it is going to be a long-term cooperation for the sake of a stable oil market.”

“However, if any shortage takes place, the producers will coordinate closely and promptly take necessary actions. The OPEC and non-OPEC agreement will remain in place. But the level of the cut may be adjusted if a physical shortage arises,” the source told Reuters.

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Reuters: OPEC Production Falls To 13-Month Low

June 1, 2018

Reuters: OPEC Production Falls To 13-Month Low

OPEC’s oil production dropped in May by 70,000 bpd to 32.00 million bpd on the back of outages in Nigeria and a continuous decline in Venezuela that dragged the cartel’s total production to the lowest level since April 2017, according to the monthly Reuters survey.

The largest fall in production was registered in Nigeria, according to the survey based on shipping data from external sources, Thomson Reuters flows data, and information provided by sources at OPEC and oil and consulting firms.

Nigeria’s production dropped to 1.85 million bpd in May from 1.94 million bpd in April, the Reuters survey found. Nigeria has been struggling with unplanned shutdowns of pipeline flows this month, and loading of the Forcados grade is being delayed.

The second-largest fall in May came from Venezuela, whose production declined to 1.45 million bpd from 1.50 million bpd, compared to the implied target of 1.972 million bpd, which means that Venezuela’s involuntary “cut” in May was 617,000 bpd—more than the cut pledged and achieved by OPEC’s biggest producer Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, as well as the second-largest producer in the cartel, Iraq, slightly raised their production in May over April. Saudi Arabia stayed within its quota and its production inched up to 10.00 million bpd because more crude oil was consumed domestically by power plants, according to sources in the Reuters survey.

Iraq produced more because it increased exports from its southern ports, following a drop last month.

According to the latest available figures by OPEC’s secondary sources—the ones that OPEC uses to measure quotas and compliance with the deal, OPEC’s production in April increased by 12,000 bpd over March, to average 31.93 million bpd, as Saudi Arabia boosted its production by 46,500 bpd.

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Flip This Well: How Fracking Company CEOs Get Rich While Losing Billions

May 30, 2018

Flip This Well: How Fracking Company CEOs Get Rich While Losing Billions

Last year the fracking company Halcón Resources announced a new strategy that was sold as the path to profits for the previously troubled shale oil and gas firm. The company had sold its stake in the Bakken oil fields in order to double down on the Permian shale in Texas. At the time, Reuters touted the deal as a “stunning turnaround” for CEO Floyd Wilson, and the good news immediately drove up the Halcón stock price by 35 percent.

“The sale of our Williston Basin operated assets transforms Halcón into a single-basin company focused on the Delaware Basin where we have more than 41,000 net acres,” Wilson said in a statement. He was making his pitch and investors responded.

However, the move was part of a familiar formula for those in the shale industry, which uses horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to release oil and gas from shale formations: Borrow lots of money, drill lots of fossil fuels at a loss, flip the company for a profit.

As the Reuters article points out, Wilson’s ultimate goal is to create excitement about the potential of its Permian basin wells and then flip Halcón, just as he’s flipped other shale firms: “Focusing on the Permian could help Wilson achieve his long-held dream of selling Halcón to the highest bidder.”

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Farmers Reeling From High Oil Prices

May 22, 2018

Farmers Reeling From High Oil Prices

As the summer driving season approaches, drivers are already paying more for gasoline due to the oil price rally in recent months.

But higher oil prices affect not only the gasoline bills of retail consumers. The higher price of oil is also pushing up diesel fuel prices as the harvesting and planting seasons for various crops are already in full swing.

Farmers in the United States and around the world see their diesel fuel expenses jumping and eating into their profits that have been already constrained by depressed prices of some crops.

Ultra-low sulfur diesel is used for farming equipment and for transportation of crops, and the May price of that diesel is the highest it’s been since 2014, just before the collapse of crude oil prices.

“You just kind of all of a sudden realize, ‘Wow, it’s pretty high,’” farmer Glenn Brunkow from Wamego, Kansas, tells Reuters.

For next year, Brunkow is considering locking in diesel prices for the first time ever to save on future rises in diesel fuel prices.

This year, farmers are struggling with higher fuel costs as a result of the advance in crude oil prices in recent months.

In the U.S., where America’s farms output contributed US$136.7 billion—or about 1 percent of GDP—to the economy in 2016, total production expenses this year are expected to be flat on 2017, but spending on fuel and oils is expected to jump 10.2 percent, forecasts by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show.

Spending on fuels and oils, which accounts for nearly 5 percent of cash expenses, is expected to increase by 10.2 percent, or by US$1.4 billion, on top of a 13.9-percent, or US$1.7 billion, increase for 2017.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Unusual Eruptions” At World’s Largest Active Geyser In Yellowstone Stoke “Supervolcano” Fears

April 29, 2018

“Unusual Eruptions” At World’s Largest Active Geyser In Yellowstone Stoke “Supervolcano” Fears

One month after we reported that fears of an eruption at the Yellowstone supervolcano continue to grow following the first eruption of the world’s largest active geyser for the first time since 2014, overnight Reuters reported of continued “unusual eruptions” at the same location after said giant geyser erupted no less three times in the past six weeks, including once this week.

The good news, according to geologists, is that while the pattern is “unusual” it is not indicative of a more destructive volcanic eruption brewing beneath Wyoming.

The bad news, is that with geological events in Yellowstone increasingly described by even the most “reputable” mainstream media and scholars as “unusual”, the broader public is having trouble believing that everything is just normal.

This is what happened: Steamboat Geyser, which can shoot water as high as 300 feet (91 meters) into the air, erupted on March 15, April 19 and on Friday.

As the Bozeman Daily Chronicle adds, the Steamboat Geyser eruption on Friday was reported by a park visitor and was estimated to have begun at 6:30 am; that person was likely the only one who witnessed it firsthand, since boardwalks leading to area are closed due to high snowfall notes Gizmodo.

Why is this unusual? Because the last time it erupted three times in a year was in 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Yellowstone Volcano Observatory said. Also notable: the last time it erupted prior to March was more than three years ago in September 2014.

While this year’s eruptions have (so far) been smaller than a usual Steamboat eruption, the two in April were about 10 times larger than an eruption at the park’s famed Old Faithful Geyser in terms on the amount of water discharged, geologists quoted by Reuters said.

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Goldman: Oil Demand Will Continue To Soar

April 25, 2018

Goldman: Oil Demand Will Continue To Soar

Oil demand is growing, and production is falling. This is the message we have been receiving for a few weeks now with increasingly frequency, especially after OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia admitted it would like oil prices even higher than US$70. Like a genie from a lamp, the market immediately obliged with traders rushing in to buy more oil, pushing Brent closer to US$75.

Everyone who’s anyone seems to be upbeat about demand. The IEA forecasts daily demand growth at 1.5 million bpd this year. Reuters shipping data suggests April imports into Asia will hit an all-time high. Investment banks are bullish. What could go wrong?

If you listen to Goldman’s Jeffrey Curry, nothing. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Currie said, “You’d have to get a really high price before you start to see it damage demand,” adding that higher oil prices were actually good for the global economy because “higher oil prices lead to creation of global excess savings – petrodollars,” which are then invested again globally, stimulating further demand.

In case anyone suspects there is something wrong with this rosy picture, they are right. For starters, these “global excess savings” will only come after oil producers close their budget gaps. Saudi Arabia alone has budgeted a deficit of more than US$50 billion for this year. It will be a while before it gets to have any savings, let alone excessive ones, to invest globally and stimulate oil demand. This is true of other major producers, too, as they all were hit hard by the last oil price crisis.

Leaving budget deficits aside, there is also the problem with inflation. Since virtually every single economy in the world is dependent on oil, inflation is closely linked to prices. Higher oil prices mean higher fuel prices and higher fuel prices drive higher inflation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Warns Of ‘Precise And Painful’ Response To Any Future US Sanctions

April 19, 2018

Russia Warns Of ‘Precise And Painful’ Response To Any Future US Sanctions

Russia is continuing to warn the West of further attacks against Russia. Whether it be in the form of missiles or sanctions, the former Soviet Union doesn’t seem like they wish to play “war games” any longer.

The United States this month added several Russian firms and officials to a sanctions blacklist in response to what it said were the Kremlin’s “malign activities.” Moscow says those sanctions are unlawful and has warned that it will retaliate in a “painful” manner.

“No one should be under any illusions,” said Valentina Matvienko, who is closely aligned with the Kremlin, was quoted as saying by the Interfax News Agency.Matvienko, the speaker of the Russian upper house of parliament, said on Wednesday that Moscow’s response to any United States sanctions will be targeted and painful, Russian news agencies reported.

“Russia’s response to the sanctions, our so-called counter-sanctions, will be precise, painful, and without question sensitive for exactly those countries that imposed them [the sanctions] on Russia,” she was quoted as saying, according to Reuters. “Sanctions are a double-edged sword and those who impose them should understand that sanctions against countries, especially those like Russia, will carry with them risks of serious consequences for those who impose them,” Matvienko added.

Lawmakers in the lower house of the Russian parliament have drawn up legislationthat would give the government powers to ban or restrict imports of U.S. goods and services ranging from medicines to software and rocket engines. However, the Kremlin has not yet said if it backs such measures.

U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned the joint U.S., French, and British military operation last weekend that struck several sites in Syria to punish the Russian-backed government of President Bashar Assad for an apparent chemical attack that killed civilians. Trump said the strike was “absolute precision.”

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Russia Has “Irrefutable Evidence” UK Staged Syrian Chemical Attack

April 13, 2018

Russia Has “Irrefutable Evidence” UK Staged Syrian Chemical Attack

As the blame game over the alleged chemical attack in Syria escalates ahead of what is expected to be an imminent, if contained, air strike campaign by the US, UK and/or France against Syria, on Friday morning, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow had “irrefutable evidence” that the attack – which allegedly killed more than 40 people in an April 7 chemical weapons strike on the former rebel outpost of Douma -was staged with the help of a foreign secret service.

“We have irrefutable evidence that this was another staged event, and that the secret services of a certain state that is now at the forefront of a Russophobic campaign was involved in this staged event,” he said during a press conference according to AFP.

Speculation that said “certain state” was the UK was confirmed shortly after, when Russia’s defense ministry alleged that Britain was involved in the suspected chemical attack. According to defense ministry spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov, the Kremlin has evidence that Britain was behind the attack.

Quoted by Reuters, he said: “We have… evidence that proves Britain was directly involved in organising this provocation.”

As RT further adds, the Russian Defense Ministry presented what it says is “proof that the reported chemical weapons attack in Syria was staged.” It also accused the British government of pressuring the perpetrators to speed up the “provocation.” During a briefing on Friday, the ministry showed interviews with two people, who, it said, are medical professionals working in the only hospital operating in Douma, a town near the Syrian capital, Damascus.

In the interviews released to the media, the two men reported how footage was shot of people dousing each other with water and treating children, which was claimed to show the aftermath of the April 7 chemical weapons attack.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

In Unprecedented Move, China Plans To Pay For Oil Imports With Yuan Instead Of Dollars

April 1, 2018

In Unprecedented Move, China Plans To Pay For Oil Imports With Yuan Instead Of Dollars

Just days after Beijing officially launched Yuan-denominated crude oil futures (with a bang, as shown in the chart below, surpassing Brent trading volume) which are expected to quickly become the third global price benchmark along Brent and WTI, China took the next major step in the challenging the Dollar’s supremacy as global reserve currency (and internationalizing the Yuan) when on Thursday Reuters reported that China took the first steps to paying for crude oil imports in its own currency instead of the US Dollars.

A pilot program for yuan payment could be launched as soon as the second half of the year and regulators have already asked some financial institutions to “prepare for pricing crude imports in the yuan“, Reuters sourcesreveal.

According to the proposed plan, Beijing would start with purchases from Russia and Angola, two nations which, like China, are keen to break the dollar’s global dominance. They are also two of the top suppliers of crude oil to China, along with Saudi Arabia.

A change in the default crude oil transactional currency – which for decades has been the “Petrodollar”, blessing the US with global reserve currency status – would have monumental consequences for capital allocations and trade flows, not to mention geopolitics: as Reuters notes, a shift in just a small part of global oil trade into the yuan is potentially huge. “Oil is the world’s most traded commodity, with an annual trade value of around $14 trillion, roughly equivalent to China’s gross domestic product last year.” Currently, virtually all global crude oil trading is in dollars, barring an estimated 1 per cent in other currencies. This is the basis of US dominance in the world economy.

However, as shown in the chart below which follows the first few days of Chinese oil futures trading, this status quo may be changing fast.

Superficially, for China it would be a matter of nationalistic pride to see oil trade transact in Yuan: “Being the biggest buyer of oil, it’s only natural for China to push for the usage of yuan for payment settlement. This will also improve the yuan liquidity in the global market,” said one of the people briefed on the matter by Chinese authorities.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Top General Issues Urgent Warning Over US-China Collision Course in Africa

March 9, 2018

(ANTIMEDIA Op-ed) Djibouti — China is the rising world power. This much is clear, but nowhere is that reality felt more than behind closed doors in Washington, D.C. The global hegemony of the United States is being challenged, and the contest is perfectly encapsulated in what’s happening now in the small African nation of Djibouti.

Strategically located at the southern entrance to the Red Sea on the route to the Suez Canal, Djibouti is home to both U.S. and Chinese military bases, and the two are only miles apart. The U.S. base houses around 4,000 military personnel and is used as a launching pad for operations in Yemen and Somalia.

On Tuesday, Reuters highlighted how the situation at a key port in Djibouti has U.S. officials worrying over China’s growing reach:

“Last month, Djibouti ended its contract with Dubai’s DP World, one of the world’s biggest port operators, to run the Doraleh Container Terminal, citing failure to resolve a dispute that began in 2012.

“DP World called the move an illegal seizure of the terminal and said it had begun new arbitration proceedings before the London Court of International Arbitration.”

It also described the reaction in Washington at a session of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee:

“During a U.S. congressional hearing on Tuesday, which was dominated by concerns about China’s role in Africa, lawmakers said they had seen reports that Djibouti seized control of the port to give it to China as a gift.”

Speaking before lawmakers, Marine General Thomas Waldhauser, the top U.S. commander in Africa, warned that the military’s ability to resupply and refuel ships would be greatly affected if China restricted access to the port:

“If the Chinese took over that port, then the consequences could be significant.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mnuchin’s Wrong: Here’s Why Investors Should Be Very Worried About Inflation

February 27, 2018

Mnuchin’s Wrong: Here’s Why Investors Should Be Very Worried About Inflation

Despite Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s bizarre insistence that there’s no connection between consumer-price inflation and rising energy prices and wages, these factors – plus a spate of others – are forcing some food companies to consider raising prices on goods from chicken to cereal, according to Reuters.

One of these factors, as Reuters explores in a wide-ranging feature published on Monday, involves US trucking and railroad operators foisting higher shipping rates on customers like General Mills Inc. and Hormel Foods Corp.

According to Reuters, transportation costs are climbing at double the rate of inflation.

These increases are catching food companies off guard. Struggling railroads and trucking companies haven’t expanded their capacity, choosing instead to focus on cost cuts – much to Wall Street’s delight.

Interviews with executives at 10 companies across the food, consumer goods and commodities sectors reveal that many are grappling with how to defend their profit margins as transportation costs climb at nearly double the inflation rate.

Two executives told Reuters their companies do plan to raise prices, though they would not divulge by how much. A third said it was discussing prospective price increases with retailers.

The prospect of higher prices on chicken, cereal and snacks costs comes as inflation emerged as a more distinct threat in recent weeks. The U.S. Labor Department reported earlier this month that underlying consumer prices in January posted their biggest gain in more than a year.

As US economic growth has revved up, railroads and truck fleets have not expanded capacity to keep pace – a decision applauded by Wall Street. Shares of CSX Corp, Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific Corp have risen an average 22 percent over the past year as they cut headcount, locomotives and rail cars, and lengthened trains to lower expenses and raise margins.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Communications Are Down”: Massive 7.5M Quake Cripples Papua New Guinea

February 26, 2018

“Communications Are Down”: Massive 7.5M Quake Cripples Papua New Guinea

Several major oil and gas operators were forced to shutter operations on Monday after a powerful 7.5 magnitude earthquake rattled Papua New Guinea’s energy-rich interior, causing landslides and cutting off communications, per Reuters. The tremor hit in the rugged, heavily forested Southern Highlands about 350 miles northwest of Port Moresby at around 3:45 am local time (1545 GMT Sunday), according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

No Casualties

As of the latest report, there were no confirmed casualties, although the International Red Cross said some reports indicated there were “fears of human casualties.”

“It’s a very serious all across the Southern Highlands and also all over the western highlands. People are definitely very frightened,” Udaya Regmi, the head of the IRC in Papua New Guinea, said by telephone from Port Moresby.

The PNG government also said it had sent disaster assessment teams. At least 13 aftershocks with a magnitude of 5.0 or more rattled the area throughout the day, according to USGS data. So far, no tsunami warnings have been issued.

“The Papua New Guinea Defense Force has also been mobilized to assist with the assessment and the delivery of assistance to affected people as well as the restoration of services and infrastructure,” Isaac Lupari, the chief secretary to the government, said in a statement.

Energy Disruptions

ExxonMobil said it had shut its Hides gas conditioning plant and that it believed administration buildings, living quarters and a mess hall had been damaged. It also said it had suspended flights into the nearby Komo airfield until the runway could be surveyed.

“Due to the damage to the Hides camp quarters and continuing aftershocks, ExxonMobil PNG is putting plans in place to evacuate non-essential staff,” the company said in an emailed statement.

Gas is processed at Hides and transported via a 435-mile pipeline that feeds a liquefied natural gas plant near Port Moresby for shipping.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Warns US To “Stop Playing With Fire” In Syria, Immediately Leave Area It Controls

February 19, 2018

Russia Warns US To “Stop Playing With Fire” In Syria, Immediately Leave Area It Controls

Two weeks after a US B-52 strike killed scores of Russian mercenaries in Syria, which according to Bloomberg and Reuters were are as many as 200, while Russia said no more than 5 Russians were killed in the attack then promptly refused to discuss the embarrassing topic further, Moscow has clearly not forgotten this latest – and most serious – escalation in the 7-year-old proxy war, and on Monday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the Trump administration not to “play with fire” as he lashed out at the U.S. over what he described as its “provocative” support for autonomy-seeking Kurds in Syria, while urging US troops in the area of Al-Tanf to “leave immediately.”

Speaking to a Moscow audience at the Valdai Club conference on the Middle East, Lavrov said that US troops must immediately cease operations in the Southern Syria area of Al-Tanf, adding that he once again calls “on our American colleagues not to play with fire and measure their steps proceeding not from immediate needs of today’s political environment, but rather from long-term interests of the Syrian people and of all peoples of this region, including the Kurds, of course,” the Russian top diplomat was quoted as saying by TASS News Agency.

Lavrov was referring to an area on Syria’s border with Jordan and Iraq, which the US declared to be under its protection last year. Among other things, it contains the Rukban refugee camp. The facility is apparently used by radical militants, including members of UN-designated terrorist group best known by its former name Al-Nusra Front, to recover and raid other parts of Syria, Lavrov said at the Valdai Club conference on the Middle East in Moscow, alongside his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif and a top adviser of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China, South Korea Vow Retaliation In Trump Trade War

January 23, 2018

China, South Korea Vow Retaliation In Trump Trade War

When we reported earlier today that President Trump lobbed the first real shot in the global (but mostly Asian) trade war when the White House announced it would slap imported solar cells and washing machines with up to 50% tariffs – Trump’s most significant trade action to date, taking direct aim at China and South Korea (full details here)- we said that “we now await China’s (or South Korea’s) response…”

We didn’t have long to wait.

South Korea stormed out of the gate, with Reuters reporting that it will complain with the WTO against the U.S. for imposing anti-dumping duties on Korean washing machine and solar panel makers, a decision Trade Minister Kim Hyun-chong called “excessive” and “regrettable.” Kim warned that the US safeguard decision is “excessive” and violates WTO provisions.

As a reminder, the United States will impose a 20 percent tariff on the first 1.2 million imported large residential washers in the first year, and a 50% tariff on machines above that number. The tariffs decline to 16% and 40% respectively in the third year.

“The United States has opted for measures that put political considerations ahead of international standards,” Kim said in a meeting with industry officials on Tuesday. “The government will actively respond to the spread of protectionist measures to defend national interests,” he said.

South Korea will also consider discussing steps jointly with other countries subject to the imposition, the trade ministry said, meanwhile the South Korean government said it would help Samsung and LG in finding alternative markets for the sale of washing machines.

Additionally, Bloomberg reports that South Korea will also seek to retaliate in kind by reinstating tariffs on the U.S. in what has been dubbed the “Washing Machine” row. To do that, South Korea asked the World Trade Organization to approve suspension of trade concessions, the trade ministry says in an emailed statement.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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