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Tag Archives: recession
Is an Increase in Demand Key for Economic Growth?
IS AN INCREASE IN DEMAND KEY FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH? Whenever the so-called economy shows signs of weakness most experts are of the view that what is required to prevent the economy sliding into recession is to boost the overall demand for goods and services. If the private sector fails to increase its demand then it […]
The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed
The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed Those households, enterprises and organizations that have no debt, a very low cost basis and a highly flexible, adaptable structure will survive and even prosper. The coming recession will be unevenly distributed, meaning that it will devastate many while leaving others relatively untouched. A few will actually do better […]
Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary?
Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary? It’s not yet clear that the stock market swoon is predictive or merely a panic attack triggered by a loss of meds. We contrarians can’t help it: when the herd is bullish, we start looking for a reversal. When the herd turns bearish, we […]
Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints
Sirinarth Mekvorawuth/EyeEm/Getty Images Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints With policy interest rates near zero in most advanced economies (and just above 2% even in the fast-growing US), there is little room for monetary policy to maneuver in a recession without considerable creativity. But those who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are stupefyingly naive. […]
Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?
Getty images Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008? Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions Even people who don’t follow the stock market closely are aware that the global economy is weakening and appears to be heading into recession. For those who track the stock market, the signs are ominous: the U.S. was […]
The path to the Global Depression
The path to the Global Depression The world economy has never faced a more perilous situation. While many have just started to debate whether a recession will start in 2019 or 2020, very few perceive the ’black hole’ the global economy is about to get sucked into. The hole has two main “gravitational forces”: the […]
Druckenmiller: “The Best Economist I Know Is Saying Something Is Not Right”
Druckenmiller: “The Best Economist I Know Is Saying Something Is Not Right” Stanley Druckenmiller established himself as one of the most successful hedge fund managers of his generation thanks to an uncanny ability for recognizing signals in asset prices that portended an coming recession. So when he warns about rough times ahead, it’s probably worth […]
Why The Collapsing Chinese Credit Impulse Is All That Matters
Why The Collapsing Chinese Credit Impulse Is All That Matters Back in June 2017, we wrote that if one had to follow just one macro indicator that impacts virtually every aspect of the global economy, that would be the Chinese credit impulse. Not surprisingly, the article was titled “Why The (Collapsing) Credit Impulse Is All […]
Australia’s House of Cards is Collapsing: Recession Coming Up
Australia’s House of Cards is Collapsing: Recession Coming Up Australia’s housing collapse is now in full swing. A recession will follow shortly. Inga Ting, Geoff Thompson and Alex McDonald provide and excellent set of graphics and information on the bursting of Australia’s housing bubble at House of Cards. Home prices in more than four out […]
Are We in a Recession Already?
Are We in a Recession Already? The value of declaring the entire nation in or out of recession is limited. Recessions are typically only visible to statisticians long after the fact, but they are often visible in real time on the ground: business volume drops, people stop buying houses and vehicles, restaurants that were jammed […]
3 Things That Happened Just Before The Crisis Of 2008 That Are Happening Again Right Now
3 Things That Happened Just Before The Crisis Of 2008 That Are Happening Again Right Now Real estate, oil and the employment numbers are all telling us the same thing, and that is really bad news for the U.S. economy. It really does appear that economic activity is starting to slow down significantly, but just […]
Global Oil Price Deflation 2018 and Beyond
Global Oil Price Deflation 2018 and Beyond Photo Source wongaboo | CC BY 2.0 One of the key characteristics of the 2008-09 crash and its aftermath (i.e. chronic slow recovery in US and double and triple dip recessions in Europe and Japan) was a significant deflation in prices of global oil. After attaining well over […]
Steen Jakobsen: The Four Horsemen Portend A Painful Reckoning
Steen Jakobsen: The Four Horsemen Portend A Painful Reckoning Even the US is now ‘swimming naked’ Steen Jacobsen, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank sees economic slowdown ahead. Specifically, his “Four Horseman” indicators: the drivers of economic growth, are all flashing red. Jacobsen believes that the central banks will continue their liquidity […]
Understanding the Global Recession of 2019
Understanding the Global Recession of 2019 Isn’t it obvious that repeating the policies of 2009 won’t be enough to save the system from a long-delayed reset? 2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial […]
