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Canada, the Petroyuan Thesis, and Balance of Trade Issues in Pictures
Canada, the Petroyuan Thesis, and Balance of Trade Issues in Pictures As NAFTA negotiations linger on, let’s step back and see what Trump’s threats are all about. The US has had a goods surplus with Canada every month since 1985. Nonetheless, Trump is incredibly annoyed at Canada and threatens to put tariffs on Canadian cars. […]
Mortgage Prisoners Totally Screwed in Australia as Refinance Rejections Soar
Mortgage Prisoners Totally Screwed in Australia as Refinance Rejections Soar Australia is flooded with “too good to be true” refinance offers. Rejections up 349% since April, 1426% from December. Looking to refinance your Australian property you wish you didn’t buy? Not to worry, I can help is the message banks are sending. Oops, strike that. […]
So Bloody Predictable: Sydney Ground Zero in Interest-Only Mortgage Implosion
So Bloody Predictable: Sydney Ground Zero in Interest-Only Mortgage Implosion Australia’s housing boom is over. A recession is not far away. It’s “all so bloody predictable” says Australia Macro Business as Western Sydney Ground Zero in Interest-Only Mortgage Bust. Selling agents are starting to reveal the truth behind recent listings in Sydney’s west with Belle […]
Next Up: Global Synchronized Easing
Next Up: Global Synchronized Easing Global economic tightening is a pipe dream. It hasn’t happened yet, and likely won’t. Bloomberg writer Komal Sri-Kumar says, and I agree, Don’t be Surprised by a Switch Global Synchronized Easing. Global investors are positioned for a coordinated tightening of monetary policy by the world’s major central banks. Although the […]
It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things)
It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things) The debt cycle, tariffs, and central bank hubris have created the conditions for a spectacular unwind of risk assets. Yesterday in Turkey: Lira Bulls and Bears Duke it Out On Twitter I asked, “Is there a bullish case for the Lira? One person thinks so. Most think otherwise.” […]
In Praise of a Genuine Gold (Not Gold-Backed) Bond
In Praise of a Genuine Gold (Not Gold-Backed) Bond Buffet dismissed gold because it pays no interest. But what if there was a genuine gold bond that paid interest in gold? Keith Weiner at Monetary Metals asks Who Would Invest in a Gold Bond? Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet famously dismissed gold. “Gold has two […]
Poland, the Next Turkey? Spotlight on the Zloty and External Debt
Poland, the Next Turkey? Spotlight on the Zloty and External Debt Emerging markets have taken it on the chin. Is Poland next? Murray Gunn, Head of Global Research at Elliott Wave International, asks “Is Poland the next Turkey?” Our outlook for the Polish Zloty suggests that Poland’s developing authoritarianism is likely to accelerate. In case […]
An Eye on M1, Cyclicals, and Junk Bonds: What Matters?
An Eye on M1, Cyclicals, and Junk Bonds: What Matters? Rosenberg says “Keep an eye on M1”, others watch Cyclicals, and still others have an eye on junk bonds. An Eye on M1 View image on Twitter All of the monetary aggregates have slowed substantially, and real M1 growth is flagging a 1% stall-speed growth economy […]
Italian Bond Market Crisis Coming Up
Italian Bond Market Crisis Coming Up Italy’s 10-Year bond yield surged around the Italian election. There’s heavy issuance in Sept and ECB tapering in Oct. The yield on Italian bonds surged in May on the victory of the League- and Five Star in the national election. The alliance does not intend to follow EU budget […]
Not Just Fangs: Manias and Echo Bubbles Abound
Not Just Fangs: Manias and Echo Bubbles Abound It’s not just the FANGs investors should be worried about. A Tweet and an article explain. ✔ “With the FANG stocks faltering lately investors are starting to become concerned about their impact on the broader market. And there is certainly something to this.”https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/69386-it-s-more-than-just-fang-stocks-investors-should-be-worried-about?type=guest-contributors … 6:17 PM – Aug 3, […]
US Trade Policy: Not Only are We Stupid, We are Hypocrites
US Trade Policy: Not Only are We Stupid, We are Hypocrites The news agencies reported Trump would extend tariffs on Wednesday. Instead, we have an outline of possible actions. The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Turns Up the Heat on China. The U.S. turned up the heat Wednesday on China, with the Trump administration threatening […]
Spotlight Danville, Illinois, My Home Town: Bankrupt
Spotlight Danville, Illinois, My Home Town: Bankrupt Danville Illinois is bankrupt. That’s not an official announcement yet, but it will be. Pensions are at the heart of it. I have talked about my relationship with Danvile before, but here is a brief recap. I grew up in Danville, Illinois, the home of Chuckles (the candy), […]
Trump and Juncker Supposedly Agree to Trade Deal: Lies All Around
Trump and Juncker Supposedly Agree to Trade Deal: Lies All Around The US and EU agree to resolve trade differences. Color me skeptical as to how long this lasts and what happens next. The Wall Street Journal reports U.S., EU Agree to Resolve Trade Differences. President Trump on Wednesday declared a “new phase” in the […]
Surge in Global Credit Driven by China: Deflationary Bust Coming
Surge in Global Credit Driven by China: Deflationary Bust Coming Since 2008 the growth in global credit has been on the back of China. Real estate led the way. Now what? Inquiring minds should take a look at FT Alphaville article Chinese Real Estate, Charted. Here is the key chart. In March, Jim Chanos stated […]
Trump Threatens to Place Tariffs on All $500B China Imports, Blasts Fed Again
Trump Threatens to Place Tariffs on All $500B China Imports, Blasts Fed Again Trump blasted the Fed, the EU, China today with threats to put tariffs on everything. China and the EU are manipulators. ✔ ….The United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well. Tightening now hurts all that we […]
