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Weekly Commentary: Arms Race in Bubbles
Weekly Commentary: Arms Race in Bubbles The week left me with an uneasy feeling. There were a number of articles noting the 30-year anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. I spent “Black Monday” staring at a Telerate monitor as a treasury analyst at Toyota’s US headquarters in Southern California. If I wasn’t completely in […]
All is Not Well
All is Not Well The 1987 stock market crash raised concerns for the dangers associated with mounting U.S. “twin deficits.” Fiscal and trade deficits were reflective of poor economic management. Credit excesses – certainly including excessive government borrowings – were stimulating demand that was reflected in expanding U.S. trade and Current Account Deficits. Concerns dissipated […]
A Contagious Crisis Of Confidence In Corporate Credit
A Contagious Crisis Of Confidence In Corporate Credit Credit is not innately good or bad. Simplistically, productive Credit is constructive, while non-productive Credit is inevitably problematic. This crucial distinction tends to be masked throughout the boom period. Worse yet, a prolonged boom in “productive” Credit – surely fueled by some type of underlying monetary disorder – can […]
Weekly Commentary: Draghi Ready to Fight
Weekly Commentary: Draghi Ready to Fight A few Friday Bloomberg headlines: “Asian Stocks Jump by Most in Four Months on Stimulus Speculation;” “Japanese Stocks Surge by Most in Four Months as Bears Retreat;” “Hong Kong Dollar Jumps Most in 12 Years as Global Stocks Rally.” It was quite a week. Back in early December I […]
Weekly Commentary: Cracks at the Core of the Core
Weekly Commentary: Cracks at the Core of the Core January 15 – Bloomberg (Matthew Boesler): “The U.S. economy should continue to grow faster than its potential this year, supporting further interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve, New York Fed President William C. Dudley said. ‘In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear […]
The Precipice
The Precipice Global markets have found themselves again at the precipice. My sense is that everyone’s numb – literally dazed and confused from prolonged Monetary Disorder and the resulting perverted market backdrop. Repeatedly, “The Precipice” has signaled easy-money buying and trading opportunities. Again and again, selling, shorting and hedging at “The Precipice” guaranteed you were […]
Weekly Commentary: Monetary Fiasco
Weekly Commentary: Monetary Fiasco All great monetary fiascos are forged upon a foundation of misperceptions and flawed premises. There’s always an underlying disturbance in money and Credit masked by supposed new understandings, technologies, capabilities and superior financial apparatus. During the nineties “New Paradigm” period, exciting new technologies and “globalization” were seen unleashing a productivity and […]
Weekly Commentary: Risk Off?
Weekly Commentary: Risk Off? The “Granddaddy of All Bubbles” thesis rests upon the view that the world is in the midst of the precarious grand finale of a multi-decade global Credit and financial Bubble. When a Bubble bursts, system reflation requires an even larger fresh new Bubble. This has repeatedly been the case going back […]
Weekly Commentary: Developing or Developed?
Weekly Commentary: Developing or Developed? BloombergView (By Matthew A. Winkler): “Ignore China’s Bears: There’s a bull running right past China bears, and it’s leading the world’s second-largest economy in a transition from resource-based manufacturing to domestic-driven services such as health care, insurance and technology. Just when the stock market began its summer-long swoon, investors showed […]
Hobson’s Choice
Hobson’s Choice More than two months have passed since the August “flash crash.” Fragilities illuminated during that bout of market turmoil still reverberate. Sure, global markets have rallied back strongly. Bullish news, analysis and sentiment have followed suit, as they do. The poor bears have again been bullied into submission, as the punchy bulls have […]
Now What?
Now What? September 18 – Reuters: “The world’s leading central banks are facing the risk that their massive efforts to revive economic growth could be dragged down again, with some officials arguing for bold new ideas to counter the threat of slow growth for years to come. A day after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept […]
The Unwind
The Unwind Too often it’s as if I’m analyzing an altogether different world than conventional analysts. My strong preference is to be viewed as an adept and determined analyst, as opposed to some wacko extremist. I have always tried to distinguish my analysis from the “lunatic fringe.” It’s my overarching thesis that the world is […]
Money and Spheres
Money and Spheres In a tiny subsection of the analytical world, analysis is becoming more pointed and poignant. I appreciate Bill Gross’s August commentary, where he concluded: “Say a little prayer that the BIS, yours truly, and a growing cast of contrarians, such as Jim Bianco and CNBC’s Rick Santelli, can convince the establishment that […]
