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What Just Changed?

What Just Changed? The illusion that risk can be limited delivered three asset bubbles in less than 20 years. Has anything actually changed in the past two weeks? The conventional bullish answer is no, nothing’s changed; the global economy is growing virtually everywhere, inflation is near-zero, credit is abundant, commodities will remain cheap for the […]

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Really Bad Ideas, Part 6: Money That “Rots And Rusts”

Really Bad Ideas, Part 6: Money That “Rots And Rusts” In the next downturn (which may have started last week, yee-haw), the world’s central banks will face a bit of poetic justice: To keep their previous policy mistakes from blowing up the world in 2008, they cut interest rates to historically – some would say […]

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A Stock Market Tumble Is the Correction We Need

A Stock Market Tumble Is the Correction We Need The Fed put us in this predicament. Only the market can get us out of it. Since hitting rock bottom in 2009, stock prices have consistently increased without much volatility — that is, until these first few days of February when the Dow Jones Industrial Average […]

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The State of the American Debt Slaves

The State of the American Debt Slaves It was one gigantic party. But wait… Total consumer credit rose 5.4% in the fourth quarter, year over year, to a record $3.84 trillion not seasonally adjusted, according to the Federal Reserve. This includes credit-card debt, auto loans, and student loans, but not mortgage-related debt. December had been […]

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It’s Looking A Lot Like 2008 Now…

It’s Looking A Lot Like 2008 Now… Did today’s market plunge mark the start of the next crash? Economic and market conditions are eerily like they were in late 2007/early 2008. Remember back then? Everything was going great. Home prices were soaring. Jobs were plentiful. The great cultural marketing machine was busy proclaiming that a […]

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The Rowboat (Wages) and the Yacht (Assets)

The Rowboat (Wages) and the Yacht (Assets) As I keep saying: the status quo has divested the working and middle classes. The reason why the status quo has failed and is fragmenting is displayed in these three charts of wages, employment and assets: wage earners (labor) are in a rowboat trying to catch the yacht […]

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Central Banks Put a Safety Net Under Financial Markets

CENTRAL BANKS PUT A SAFETY NET UNDER FINANCIAL MARKETS Most early business cycle indicators suggest that the global economy is pretty much roaring ahead. Production and employment are rising. Firms keep investing and show decent profits. International trade is expanding. Credit is easy to obtain. Stock prices keep moving up to ever higher levels. All […]

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Central Banks Put a Safety Net Under Financial Markets

Central Banks Put a Safety Net Under Financial Markets Most early business cycle indicators suggest that the global economy is pretty much roaring ahead. Production and employment are rising. Firms keep investing and show decent profits. International trade is expanding. Credit is easy to obtain. Stock prices keep moving up to ever higher levels. All […]

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ECB Forced to postpone New Stricter Credit Rules Indefinitely

ECB Forced to postpone New Stricter Credit Rules Indefinitely The ECB’s was forced to suspend its new stricter credit rules indefinitely concerning bad loans. The banks were screaming “you idiot”  for it would have pushed way too many banks over the edge, particularly in Italy. With the Italian elections coming in March, the new rules would […]

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The ‘Everything Bubble’ and What Happens if Credit Freezes Up in a Credit-Based Economy

The ‘Everything Bubble’ and What Happens if Credit Freezes Up in a Credit-Based Economy “It could get really messy.”  Wolf Richter on the X22 Report The US government bond market has soured, even the 10-year yield is surging, and mortgage rates have jumped. Read… What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2?

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As the Controlled Inflation Scheme Rolls On

As the Controlled Inflation Scheme Rolls On Controlled Inflation American consumers are not only feeling good.  They are feeling great. They are borrowing money – and spending it – like tomorrow will never come. After an extended period of indulging in excessive moderation (left), the US consumer makes his innermost wishes known (right). [PT] On Monday the Federal Reserve […]

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Corporate Coercion and the Drive to Eliminate Buying with Cash

Corporate Coercion and the Drive to Eliminate Buying with Cash “Sorry we’re not taking cash or checks,” said the clerk at the Fed Ex counter over a decade ago to an intern. “Only credit cards.” Since then, the relentless intensification of coercive commercialism has been moving toward a cashless economy, when all consumers are incarcerated […]

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Why the Financial System Will Break: You Can’t “Normalize” Markets that Depend on Extreme Monetary Stimulus

Why the Financial System Will Break: You Can’t “Normalize” Markets that Depend on Extreme Monetary Stimulus Central banks are now trapped. In a nutshell, central banks are promising to “normalize” their monetary policy extremes in 2018. Nice, but there’s a problem: you can’t “normalize” markets that are now entirely dependent on extremes of monetary stimulus. […]

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The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail

girardatlarge.com The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail Credit cannot expand faster than fundamentals forever  Modern finance has many complex moving parts, and this complexity masks its inner simplicity. Let’s break down the core dynamics of the current financial system. The Core Dynamic of the “Recovery” and Asset Bubbles: Credit Credit is the […]

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Weekly Commentary: A Phenomenal Year

Weekly Commentary: A Phenomenal Year 2017 was phenomenal in so many ways. The year will be remembered for a tumultuous first year of the Trump Presidency, the passage of major tax legislation and seemingly endless stock market records. It was a year of synchronized global growth and stock bull markets, along with record low market […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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