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Australia Is “Going Down Under”: “The Bubble Is About To Burst”, RBS Warns
Australia Is “Going Down Under”: “The Bubble Is About To Burst”, RBS Warns Thanks to a variety of idiosyncratic political crises and country-specific stumbling blocks, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and to a lesser extent Russia, have received the lion’s share of coverage when it comes to assessing the EM damage wrought by the comically bad combination […]
A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage
A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage As we’ve documented extensively of late, a host of idiosyncratic political factors have served to exacerbate what was already a very, very bad situation for emerging markets. This dynamic is most readily apparent in Brazil and Turkey, and although Ankara probably has a […]
In Latest Sign Of EM Chaos, Turkey’s FX Reserves Fall Below Key Threshold Ahead Of Pivotal Elections
In Latest Sign Of EM Chaos, Turkey’s FX Reserves Fall Below Key Threshold Ahead Of Pivotal Elections One of the key things to understand about the veritable meltdown that’s unfolded across emerging markets is that there’s more to the story than the headline risk factors. That is, while the list of proximate causes that includes […]
Brazilian Nightmare Worsens On Bad Budget Data, Record Low Confidence, Horrific Government Approval Ratings
Brazilian Nightmare Worsens On Bad Budget Data, Record Low Confidence, Horrific Government Approval Ratings Last month, in “‘No Recovery For You!’ Brazil Officially Enters Recession, Goldman Calls Numbers ‘Disquieting’”, we outlined Brazil’s July fiscal performance and came away believing that the country had little chance of hitting its primary fiscal surplus targets. Here’s what we […]
Rousseff Coup Could Sink Brazil, Emerging Markets
Rousseff Coup Could Sink Brazil, Emerging Markets Dolls in likeness of Lula da Silva, Rouseff. Source: The Guardian Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff’s approval rating has plummeted to 8% amid the country’s worst recession in two decades. Her job is at risk too. Earlier this week opponents filed a petition to impeach Rousseff due to allegations of corruption […]
Is Brazil About to Drag Down Spain’s Biggest Bank?
Is Brazil About to Drag Down Spain’s Biggest Bank? The timing could not have been worse. In July last year, an analyst working for Banco Santander Brasil did something he shouldn’t have. He warned the firm’s private banking clients about the economic risks posed by the reelection of Brazil’s scandal-tarnished president, Dilma Rousseff. Those risks […]
Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession
Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession It is to be expected that economists – even economists working for the same team – have different views about the likelihood of different future outcomes. Economics isn’t rocket science, and even rockets frequently land in the wrong place or explode in […]
Globalized Crisis
Globalized Crisis If there is a bright side to the turmoil that has roiled the global economy since 2008, it is that not every part of the world has erupted simultaneously. The first blow was the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, to which Europeans responded with self-satisfied reflections on the superior resilience of […]
“This Time May Be Different”: Desperate Central Banks Set To Dust Off Asia Crisis Playbook, Goldman Warns
“This Time May Be Different”: Desperate Central Banks Set To Dust Off Asia Crisis Playbook, Goldman Warns Early last month, Bloomberg observed that plunging currencies were “handcuffing bankers from Chile to Colombia.” The problem was described as follows: Central bankers in commodity-dependent Andes economies aren’t even considering interest-rate cuts to revive growth, even as prices for oil, […]
The “Peña Nieto Bottom”
The “Peña Nieto Bottom” When Enrique Peña Nieto’s government pushed a historic energy reform bill through the Mexican congress in 2013, it was hoped that it would serve not only to privatize but also modernize Mexico’s state-owned Pemex and allow it to compete with giants like Exxon. However, the one thing the government seemingly hadn’t […]
