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Europe’s natural gas and electricity markets are heading into the winter heating season with prices at record highs amid various supply outages in already tight markets and uncertainty over how much flexibility in gas and power generation there will be.

Forward prices for natural gas are factoring in a winter risk premium in the currently tight market, highlighting the concern that another supply outage could strain the market further and send prices even higher, according to an S&P Global Platts analysis.

Yet, the key factor determining Europe’s gas and power demand this winter will be something that no market can control—weather. Forecasts suggest that the start to the winter in Europe would be mild.

Last winter’s start was also mild, before the Beast from the East swept through Europe at the end of the season, causing one of the coldest winters this decade, squeezing natural gas supplies across Western Europe, and sending prices soaring.

The cold spell in Europe at the end of February and early March led to record withdrawals in the first quarter of 2018, and storage levels dropped to 18 percent of capacity—well below the five-year range, the European Commission (EC) said in its Q1 Quarterly Report on European gas markets.

In the summer, natural gas prices in the UK surged to the highest for a summer season, with Europe’s natural gas market the most bullish in years, as higher-than-expected summer demand and a tighter market drove natural gas price futures to levels last seen during this past winter’s supply crunch. After touching their highest levels for a summer season, natural gas futures prices in Northwest Europe have continued to rise in anticipation of tightening supply as winter is approaching.

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Canadian Shale Is Hitting The Wall

September 24, 2018

Canadian Shale Is Hitting The Wall

Plunging Canadian prices have been depressing oil producers’ realized prices and revenues, even though the U.S. benchmark and the international Brent Crude prices have rallied year to date.

But it’s not only oil sands producers that have been coping with wide price differentials between Canadian crude oil prices and WTI this year.

Canada’s shale drillers have also started to face widening differentials between the Canadian benchmark for light oil delivered at Edmonton and WTI, due to—unsurprisingly—insufficient pipeline infrastructure to transport the light oil to the market.

The Edmonton sweet crude discount to WTI slumped to US$16 a barrel earlier this month—the widest spread since Bloomberg began compiling the data in June 2014.

Not that Western Canadian Select (WCS)—the benchmark price of oil from Canada’s oil sands delivered at Hardisty, Alberta—has been doing any better. The WCS discount to WTI has been more than US$20 this year, and even US$30 at one point. This resulted in Canada Natural Resources saying in early August that it was allocating capital to lighter oil drilling and is curtailing heavy oil production as the price of Canadian heavy oil tumbled to a nearly five-year-low relative to the U.S. benchmark price.

Higher oil prices this year have encouraged more Canadian light tight oil and condensate drilling and production, but takeaway capacity—the weakest link of Canada’s oil industry—is maxed and has already started to affect the realized prices of shale drillers, similar to the widening discount for Midland crude from the Permian in the United States.

To be sure, Canadian shale producers are still making money, even with a wider discount, because WTI is now at $70 a barrel, analysts tell Bloomberg.

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Iran Starts Air Force Drills Near The World’s Crucial Oil Chokepoint

September 22, 2018

Iran Starts Air Force Drills Near The World’s Crucial Oil Chokepoint

Iran’s Air Force and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps began on Friday fighter jet drills over the waters near the world’s most important oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s IRNA news agency reported on Friday.

Aircraft including nine F-4, six Sukhoi, and four Mirage started the war games in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman waters, IRNA said.

The maneuver is a warning that Iran’s enemies will face a “stern response” if they show ill-will toward Tehran, the AP quoted the official Iranian news agency as saying.

Earlier this year, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz for all tanker traffic if the U.S. drives Iranian oil exports to zero.

As the first round of U.S. sanctions on Iran kicked in last month and the second round of sanctions—including on Iranian oil exports—is set to snap back in early November, the Islamic Republic has recently stepped up rhetoric about controlling the most vital oil flow chokepoint in the world.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rebuffed Iran’s claims saying in a statement posted on Twitter: “The Islamic Republic of Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important chokepoint, with an oil flow of 18.5 million bpd in 2016, the EIA estimates. The Strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and is the key route through which Persian Gulf exporters—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain—ship their oil. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that can ship crude oil outside of the Persian Gulf with additional pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which is a route of more than 30 percent of the daily global seaborne-traded crude oil and petroleum products and more than 30 percent of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows.

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Perry Tells Russia To Stop Using Energy As Economic Weapon

September 14, 2018

Perry Tells Russia To Stop Using Energy As Economic Weapon

The United States welcomes competition from Russia on the global energy markets, but Russia can no longer use energy as an economic weapon, U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry saidon Thursday during his meeting with Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak in Moscow.

At the meeting, “Secretary Perry also expressed his disappointment and concern about Russia’s continued attempts to infiltrate the American electric grid,” a statement from the U.S. Department of Energy on the meeting says.

“Secretary Perry made clear that while the United States welcomes competition with Russia in energy markets across Europe, Asia and elsewhere, Moscow can no longer use energy as an economic weapon. The United States is now in a position to offer these nations an alternative source of supply,” the DOE said.

Russian gas giant Gazprom, which holds a third of European natural gas market, has in the past cut supply to Europe via Ukraine due to disputes over pricing, and has prevented customers from reselling natural gas, dominating most of the markets in central and southeastern Europe.

Referring to the controversial Gazprom-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project to Germany, “President Trump has made clear that the United States staunchly opposes the Nordstream 2 Pipeline, which would expand a single-source gas artery deep into Europe,” the DOE said.

“The U.S. supports the desire of European nations to minimize their dependence on Russia as a single energy supplier, and look forward to increasing LNG exports to the region, as announced by President Trump and EU President Juncker in June.”

During his visit to Moscow, when asked if the U.S. could impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 and if more energy sanctions were being planned, Secretary Perry told reporters “Yes to your first question and yes to your second.” However, sanctions are not where the U.S. and Russia want to go, the AP quoted Secretary Perry as saying.

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Why The U.S. Is Suddenly Buying A Lot More Saudi Oil

September 11, 2018

Why The U.S. Is Suddenly Buying A Lot More Saudi Oil

For a few months now, OPEC has been boosting production to ease concerns about high oil prices amid expected supply losses from Venezuela and Iran.

The cartel’s largest producer and exporter, Saudi Arabia, has been specifically targeting an increase in crude oil exports to the most transparent market, the United States, which reports crude oil imports and inventory levels every week.

On the one hand, the Saudis are looking to regain their foothold in the American market after having cut shipments to the United States to a 30-year-low at the end of last year, when OPEC’s efforts to erase the global oil glut were in full swing.

On the other hand, the Saudis are responding to the demands of their staunch ally U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly slammed OPEC for the high gasoline prices, urging the cartel in early July to “REDUCE PRICING NOW!”

In the week to August 31, the four-week average of U.S. crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia exceeded 1 million bpd for the first time since June 2017, data by the EIA showed.

At that time last year, Saudi Arabia started to purposefully reduce its exports to the United States, where inventory data and refinery runs are reported every week. Those reports influence the price of oil and investor sentiment.

In the last week of October 2017, the four-week average of U.S. imports from Saudi Arabia was just 506,000 bpd—almost half of the four-week average of 1.009 million bpd for the last week of August this year.

In October 2017, U.S. imports from Saudi Arabia stood at 582,000 bpd—the lowest level since November 1987, as OPEC’s leader, its fellow OPEC members, and Russia-led non-OPEC allies part of the production cut pact were working to drain the global oil glut that weighed on oil prices and on the incomes of oil producing countries.

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Denmark Becomes Net Oil Importer For First Time In 25 Years

September 1, 2018

Denmark Becomes Net Oil Importer For First Time In 25 Years

For the first time since 1993, Denmark is on track to become a net oil importer this year, as oil production in the Danish part of the North Sea will be lower than the country’s consumption, the Danish Energy Agency said on Thursday, revising down its oil production forecasts.

The new forecast by the agency is a change from last year’s assessment and forecasts, which had expected that Denmark would continue to be a net oil exporter for a number of years, the agency said.

Now, the country is expected to be a net oil exporter for a single year, in 2024, when oil production is forecast to exceed consumption due to expected start-up of new developments.

The Danish Energy Agency revised down its oil production forecast by 8 percent compared to last year’s forecast, mostly due to a downward revision of the resources, delays, and a “greater uncertainty regarding the development of several fields and discoveries.”

For this year, the agency expects Denmark’s oil production to average just 128,000 bpd, a figure 10 percent lower than last year’s 2018, mainly due to what is expected to be lower production from some of the larger oil fields.

Between 2018 and 2022, the oil production estimate was revised down by an average 14 percent, attributable again to lower production expected at some larger oil fields.

The outlook for Denmark’s natural gas exporter status is rosier. Denmark is expected to remain a net natural gas exporter until 2035, except for the years 2020 and 2021 when the Tyra field redevelopment—approved last year—will be underway, the Danish agency noted.

“The approval of the rebuilding of the facilities on the Tyra field implies that the uncertainty in this regard is less than before. However, great uncertainty remains with regard to the development of a number of projects hence contributing to the forecast being somewhat uncertain,” the agency said.

Europe’s Natural Gas Prices Surge To Record For Summer Season

August 27, 2018

Europe’s Natural Gas Prices Surge To Record For Summer Season

Europe’s natural gas market is the most bullish it has been in years, as higher-than-expected summer demand and a tighter market drive natural gas price futures to levels last seen during this past winter’s supply crunch and to the highest for a summer season.

Natural gas prices are expected to stay strong and may still have room to rally, ahead of the next winter heating season in Europe that begins in October, analysts and traders tell Bloomberg.

Contrary to the typical summer lull in Europe’s gas prices, this year the front-month gas price in the UK—Europe’s biggest gas market—for example, is nearing the winter price from December 2017 when a deadly explosion in Austria’s gas hub at Baumgarten squeezed supplies throughout Europe. Immediately after the explosion, the price of gas for immediate delivery in the UK reached its highest level since 2013.

The past winter season in Europe was one of the coldest this decade, sending gas demand soaring and the level of natural gas stored in tanks across Europe dropping to below average levels.

Russia—which already supplies around one-third of Europe’s gas—boosted deliveries in the winter, and continued to ship higher volumes even after that, as gas importing countries were replenishing gas storage supplies that had been drained amid the cold snaps.

Come spring, demand in Europe stayed high. First, because gas storage levels were low, and second—because some of Europe’s other traditional gas-supplying countries decreased supplies over issues or maintenance at facilities.

Then summer came and with it a prolonged scorching heat wave across most of Europe for most of July and August. Demand for gas jumped again amid a tighter market and spot cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) going mostly to Asia—China in particular—as sellers profit from selling their LNG on the Asian market where prices are higher than Europe’s.

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Canada’s Top Court Dismisses Burnaby Case Against Trans Mountain Pipeline

August 24, 2018

Canada’s Top Court Dismisses Burnaby Case Against Trans Mountain Pipeline

Canada’s Supreme Court on Thursday dismissed an appeal by the City of Burnaby—the planned end point of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in British Columbia on the Pacific coast, clearing another legal hurdle for the project, which still faces several lawsuits at various Canadian courts.

The City of Burnaby was seeking to overturn a decision by Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB), which ruled in favor of Kinder Morgan in December last year, saying the company is not required to comply with two sections of the City of Burnaby’s bylaws as it was preparing to begin construction of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project. The NEB found that Burnaby’s bylaw review process was unreasonable and caused an unreasonable delay.

The Trans Mountain expansion has become one of the most controversial pipeline projects in North America as it pitted two provinces—Alberta and British Columbia—against each other.

Alberta’s heavy oil producers need more pipeline capacity as their production grows, but pipeline capacity has stayed the same. British Columbia’s NDP government, which came into office last year, however, is against any new oil pipelines, although it doesn’t mind all the crude it currently gets from the existing pipeline.

The fierce opposition in British Columbia has forced Kinder Morgan to reconsider its commitment to expand the Trans Mountain pipeline, and to sell the project to the Canadian government.

“We’re disappointed that the courts seem unwilling to review decisions made by the National Energy Board that hamper municipal jurisdiction,” Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan said, commenting on today’s court ruling.

“Burnaby is not going away. We intend to continue to oppose this project with all legal means available to us, and will be continuing with our other legal challenges,” Corrigan added.

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Oil Markets Are In For A Bumpy Ride

August 21, 2018

Oil Markets Are In For A Bumpy Ride

The always-volatile oil market is set for even more volatility over the next two years as investors and speculators try to make sense of the conflicting market forces determining the pace of demand growth and global oil supply.

Over the past month, the two key themes have been how much Iranian oil will come off the oil market from U.S. sanctions in November, and how much demand growth could suffer with the trade wars. More recently, another theme is the emerging markets turmoil following Turkey’s crisis. Throw in all the new and much stricter International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations on sulfur fuel oil requirements from 2020 that are expected to upend the refining and shipping markets, and oil prices are set for wild swings, industry executives and analysts say.

The severe IMO restrictions on fuel oil’s sulfur content—aimed at reducing emissions—will drive increased demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil, which in turn will push up demand for crude oil, Morgan Stanley analysts say. This would boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020, according to Morgan Stanley.

But before the 2020 regulation, analysts and investors are closely watching two currently unfolding developments—the sanctions on Iran’s oil and possibly weakening global oil demand growth—the main bullish and bearish factors, respectively, in the market right now.

“With new sanctions coming into play and also the IMO 2020, we see there is more volatility and therefore more opportunities to trade. So, we see our customers taking, slowly but surely, positions for that to happen,” Eelco Hoekstra, chief executive at independent tank storage company Vopak, told CNBC on Friday.

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All-Time Low Spare Capacity Could Send Oil To $150

August 16, 2018

All-Time Low Spare Capacity Could Send Oil To $150

While the oil market and analysts are trying to guesstimate how much Iranian oil the U.S. sanctions will stifle later this year, they all agree that the return of the sanctions is the market’s key bullish driver as well as the largest ‘known unknown’ for oil prices later this year and into 2019.

Some ultra-bullish hedge funds think that the U.S. sanctions will remove much more than 1 million bpd of Iranian oil from the market. Considering the low spare capacity for a quick ramp-up of production elsewhere, some hedge fund managers expect oil prices to jump to as high as $150 a barrel in 18 to 24 months.

“Our view is that by November 4, we will have lost between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels [of output] a day. It is a very big number. That’s based on the view that the U.S. will allow a few temporary exception waivers,” Jean-Louis Le Mee, CEO at London-based Westbeck hedge fund told Reuters. “Ultimately, we could see losses from Iran exceed 2 million barrels a day,” Le Mee said.

According to Pierre Andurand, who manages the US$1.2-billion Andurand Commodities Fund, the world’s spare capacity is at its lowest ever, and this will be a real issue with global oil supply.

Replying to one of President Trump’s tweets blaming OPEC for the “too high” oil prices, Andurand said in mid-June that “OPEC has the lowest spare capacity ever right now. There is going to be a real issue. Prices will be above $150 in less than 2 years. Eventually higher prices will bring more supply. But right now too little supply coming over the next few years despite US supply growth.”

Generalist investors don’t have such bullish views, but “this is going to catch everybody by surprise,” Westbeck’s chief investment officer Will Smith told Reuters.

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Why Saudi Oil Production Suddenly Dropped

August 8, 2018

Why Saudi Oil Production Suddenly Dropped

As if oil market participants haven’t had enough conflicting market forces to digest over the past week, reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production surprisingly dropped in July by around 200,000 bpd from June further confounded the market and sent oil prices rising on Monday.

Last week, several surveys of OPEC’s crude oil production in July showed that the cartel is pumping at high rates, and Saudi Arabia is nearing its production record. But on Friday, Saudi sources and OPEC sources told news agencies that the Saudi oil production was not even close to record figures—and it actually dropped last month compared to June.

The Saudis pumped 10.29 million bpd in July, Saudi sources told S&P Global Platts on Friday. On the same day, two OPEC sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in July was 10.29 million bpd.

According to OPEC’s secondary sources, the ones the cartel uses to calculate quotas and compliance, Saudi Arabia’s oil production had jumped in June by 405,400 bpd compared to May, to reach 10.420 million bpd.

According to a Reuters survey from last week, Saudi Arabia’s production in July was 10.65 million bpd, but exports were close to June’s levels because the Saudis increased domestic use at power plants and refineries. OPEC’s crude oil production jumped by 340,000 bpd in July from June, as Saudi Arabia pumped near-record volumes, the S&P Global Platts survey showed on Friday.

The numbers leaked by Saudi and OPEC sources on Friday are in stark contrast with many of the surveys.

Some of the Platts survey participants think that Saudi Arabia may have trouble placing its barrels on the market, and demand for Saudi crude may not have been as robust as the Kingdom had expected.

“I think what they’re trying to do is, there’s a story in the market that the Saudis and the UAE and Kuwaitis and Russians were all vastly increasing production well ahead of any cutbacks from Iran, and I think they are trying to change the narrative,” a Platts survey participant said.

Canada’s Biggest Producer Cuts Drilling As Heavy Oil Price Tumbles

August 6, 2018

Canada’s Biggest Producer Cuts Drilling As Heavy Oil Price Tumbles

Canada Natural Resources, the largest producer, is allocating capital to lighter oil drilling and is curtailing heavy oil production as the price of Canadian heavy oil tumbled to a nearly five-year-low relative to the U.S. benchmark price.

Due to the transportation bottlenecks, the discount at which Western Canadian Select (WCS)—the benchmark price of oil from Canada’s oil sands delivered at Hardisty, Alberta—trades relative to WTI has been more than US$20 this year.

On Thursday, that discount blew out to US$30.80 a barrel—the largest WCS-WTI differential since December 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Canada Natural Resources said on Thursday in its Q2 results release that its North America crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production in the second quarter dropped by 3 percent from the first quarter of 2018, primarily as a result of production curtailments and shut-in volumes of around 10,350 bpd as well as reduced drilling activity and delayed completion and ramp up of certain primary heavy crude oil wells drilled in Q1 and Q2.

“Due to current market conditions the Company has exercised its capital flexibility by shifting capital from primary heavy crude oil to light crude oil in 2018, resulting in an additional 7 net light crude oil wells targeted to be drilled in the second half of the year. Primary heavy crude oil drilling was reduced by 24 net primary heavy crude oil wells in Q2/18, with an additional 35 primary heavy crude oil well reduction targeted for the second half of the year,” Canada Natural Resources said yesterday.

Canada is producing record amounts of heavy oil from the oil sands and its economic recovery is driven by the oil industry, but drillers are finding it increasingly difficult to get this oil to market because pipelines are running at capacity and new ones are finding opposition from various groups.

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Russia Plans $50 Billion Investment In Iran’s Oil, Gas Industry

July 15, 2018

Russia Plans $50 Billion Investment In Iran’s Oil, Gas Industry

Russia is getting ready to invest US$50 billion in Iran’s oil and gas industry as the two countries continue to seek closer ties, just as the United States is looking to cut as much Iranian crude oil exports from the market as possible.

“Russia is ready to invest $50bn in Iran’s oil and gas sectors,” according to Ali Akbar Velayati, Senior Adviser for International Affairs of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, as carried by the Financial Times.

Velayati was on a visit to Moscow that included a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Military and technical co-operation with Russia is of major importance to Iran,” FT quoted Velayati as saying.

“The discussion focused on Russian-Iranian cooperation issues as well as the situation in the region, including developments in Syria. The parties reaffirmed their commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s Nuclear Deal (JCPOA),” the Kremlin said in a brief statement on the meeting on Thursday.

According to the Iranian official, a Russian oil company has signed an agreement with Iran worth US$4 billion, and that deal “will be implemented soon.”

Russian energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom have also started talks with the oil ministry of Iran to potentially sign deals worth up to US$10 billion, the Iranian adviser said, while a Russian government official confirmed to FT Russia’s US$50-billion investment plans.

Earlier this year, a local Iranian company, Dana Energy, in a consortium led by Russia’s Zarubezhneft, signed an agreement with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to redevelop the Aban and West Paydar oilfields, with total capex estimated at around US$740 million.

Separately, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russia was studying all legal implications for a possible deal with Iran under which Moscow would provide goods to Tehran in exchange for oil. Such a deal is still possible, Novak said.

The U.S. Energy Industry Can’t Afford A Trade War

July 12, 2018

The U.S. Energy Industry Can’t Afford A Trade War

As the U.S.-China trade spat turns into a full-blown war with tariffs and retaliatory tariffs and threats of further tariffs, U.S. energy exports to China may suffer if Beijing follows through with its threat to slap tariffs on U.S. oil and oil product imports.

China has, in recent years, become a key export market for growing U.S. energy exports. In fact, China is America’s second-largest crude oil customer after Canada and is also one of the biggest importers of U.S. propane and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Associations of U.S. manufacturers, retailers, and petroleum and chemicals producers have stepped up calls on the U.S. Administration to seek alternative solutions to the tariffs, warning that additional levies would hurt U.S. jobs and growth.

If the United States were to impose tariffs on oil, U.S. oil sellers would have to look for other destinations and attract new customers, which could cost them more.

Last year, more U.S. crude oil was sent to China than any other destination except Canada, the EIA said in an analysis on Tuesday. China received more U.S. crude oil in 2017 than the third- and fourth-largest importers combined, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.

U.S. crude oil exports to China averaged 330,000 bpd between January and April this year, with February sales to China beating even exports to Canada, according to the EIA.

And it’s not just crude oil. China was also the third-largest destination for U.S. propane exports last year, behind only Japan and Mexico. Around half of U.S. propane exports went to Asia in 2017, displacing supplies from Middle Eastern countries and some regional production of propane.

For LNG, 15 percent of U.S. exports went to China, making it the third-largest importer of U.S. LNG behind Mexico and South Korea.

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A Storm Is Brewing For U.S. Oil Exports

July 11, 2018

A Storm Is Brewing For U.S. Oil Exports

Two geopolitical developments in recent weeks—U.S. sanctions on Iran and the escalating U.S.-Chinese trade war—are set to reshuffle the U.S. oil flows to the world’s fastest-growing oil market, Asia.

On the one hand, the United States is pressing Iran’s oil customers to cut their Iranian crude imports by as much as possible. China is Tehran’s biggest oil buyer, and India is its second. While India is reportedly preparing for a drastic reduction of Iranian oil imports, China will continue to buy Iranian oil.

On the other hand, China is threatening to impose a 25-percent tariff on U.S. crude oil and oil products after the U.S.-Chinese trade war took a turn for the worse in recent weeks. Such a tariff would make American crude oil uncompetitive in China, and U.S. oil sellers will have to find alternative buyers for their crude to replace the volumes they are currently selling to their second-largest oil customer after Canada.

India is an obvious possibility—its imports and demand are surging, and it may be willing to replace at least part of its Iranian oil imports out of fear that its companies and the sovereign could lose access to the U.S. financial system should it continue to buy Iran’s oil.

But the problem with India possibly replacing Iranian oil with U.S. crude is that American light oil isn’t a substitute for heavy high-sulfur Iranian crude.

India began regular U.S. imports last year, but the volumes are currently small, especially compared to the U.S. crude exports to China, EIA data shows. But in May, India’s imports of U.S. crude oil jumped by nine times the April volumes—signifying that at least a partial switch is already underway.

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