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It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things)

The debt cycle, tariffs, and central bank hubris have created the conditions for a spectacular unwind of risk assets.

Yesterday in Turkey: Lira Bulls and Bears Duke it Out On Twitter I asked, “Is there a bullish case for the Lira? One person thinks so. Most think otherwise.”

I intended to do a follow-up post today, but Saxo Bank’s Steen Jakobsen covered most of the essentials in a recent post that I just saw today.

I have some thoughts at the end in regards to Turkey and the “other things”.

Macro Digest: It’s Not Turkey, It’s the Debt Cycle by Steen Jakobsen, emphasis mine.

There is currently a lot of focus on Turkey, and for good reason, but Turkey is really only a second or third derivative of the global macro story.

Turkey represents the catalyst for a new theme, which is “too much debt and current account deficits equals crisis”. In that sense, we have come full cycle from deficits and debt mattering in the 1980s and ‘90s but not in the ‘00s and ‘10s post- the Nasdaq crash and great financial crisis under the biggest monetary experiment of all time.

In our view, the order of sequence for this crisis is as follows:

  1. The debt cycle is on pause as first China and now the US have deleveraged and ‘normalised’.
  2. The stock of credit or the ‘credit cake’ has collapsed. First it was the ‘change of the change of credit’, or the credit impulse, which tanked in late 2017 and into 2018. Now it is also the stock of credit. Right now, global M2 over global growth is less than one, meaning the world is trying to achieve 6% global growth with less than 2.5% growth in its monetary base… the exact opposite of the 00’s and ‘10s central bank- and politician-driven model.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: Instability

Weekly Commentary: Instability

With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market Instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, Indian rupee and others traded to record lows versus the greenback. The South African rand “flash crashed” 10%, before recovering to a 2.3% decline. Brazil’s sovereign CDS jumped 14 bps Monday to a six-week high 252. Italian 10-year yields jumped 11 bps to 3.10%, near the high going back to June 2014, as the euro declined to one-year lows.
The Turkish lira surged 8.4% Tuesday, jumped another 6.8% Wednesday and then gained an additional 1.9% Thursday. Wild Instability then saw the Turkish lira drop 3.1% during Friday’s session, ending the week up 6.9%. Qatar’s $15 billion pledge, along with central bank measures, supported the tenuous lira recovery.

August 17 – Wall Street Journal (Lingling Wei and Bob Davis): “Chinese and U.S. negotiators are mapping out talks to try to end their trade impasse ahead of planned meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November, said officials in both nations. The planning represents an effort on both sides to keep a spiraling trade dispute-which already has involved billions of dollars in tariffs and comes with the threat of hundreds of billions more-from torpedoing the U.S.-China relationship and shaking global markets. Scheduled midlevel talks in Washington next week, which both sides announced on Thursday, will pave the way for November. A nine-member delegation from Beijing, led by Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen, will meet with U.S. officials led by the Treasury undersecretary, David Malpass, on Aug. 22-23. The negotiations are aimed at finding a way for both sides to address the trade disputes, the officials said, and could lead to more rounds of talks.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kass: “Downside Risk Dwarfs Upside Reward”

‘The boldness of asking deep questions may require unforeseen flexibility if we are to accept the answers.’ – Brian Greene

* A pivot in monetary policy, a further rise in the risk free rate of return, policy and profit uncertainty and a softening in soft and hard high frequency economic data are some of the reasons that point to a lower and destabilized stock market

Following The Great Recession of 2007-09 and a near collapse of the world financial system, the US and other developed as well as emerging economies embarked upon a near decade long expansion and global bull market. In large measure the recoveries were abetted by a worldwide coordinated monetary easing which took interest rates to generational lows and provided an unprecedented amount of excess liquidity.

Though US economic growth from 2009 to present remained substandard compared to previous recoveries, that excess liquidity provided a tailwind to higher stock prices. Corporate capital was increasingly allocated to buybacks rather than the more traditional capital spending outlays reflecting modest real growth in the domestic economy. Going back, since 1999 there were over 7500 listed securities on the NYSE and Nasdaq – today there are under 4000 listed securities (reflecting mergers, delistings offset by the proliferation of ETFs). And of the remaining listed companies nearly 20% of the outstanding shares have been repurchased.

Stocks clearly have benefited from this positive demand v. supply proposition.

If that was not enough, passive investing (ETFs) grew in popularity as did quantitative strategies — all at the expense of active investing. More than ever, investors worshipped at the altar of price momentum at a time in which the excess liquidity promoted optimism. Even central bankers (in Switzerland and Japan and elsewhere) joined in on the party – buying up equities with all that excess liquidity their central banks delivered as fear and doubt left Wall Street.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“That’s a Super Dangerous Place to Be”: CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management

“That’s a Super Dangerous Place to Be”: CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management

When central banks distort the markets, risk disappears from view.

“You could have a bunch of walking-zombie companies and you don’t even know it,” explained Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management, on Wednesday at the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York. “That’s a super dangerous place to be,” she said.

She was talking about the effects of the ECB’s bond buying program as part of a broader warning that investors are no longer seeing risks.

The ECB has been buying corporate bonds, among other things, in an explicit effort to distort the bond market and drive corporate bond yields to near zero. At the peak of the frenzy last fall, the average euro junk-bond yield fell to 2.08% — though it has risen since. These are bonds with an appreciable risk of default. But the yield was barely enough to cover inflation (currently 2.0%). Credit risk wasn’t priced in at all.

The bond-buying binge has created a universe of bonds with negative yields, and desperate investors who’ll take any risk without compensation just to cover inflation. This desperation supplies fresh money to burn to even the riskiest zombie companies.

Companies have relentlessly taken advantage of this investor desperation. The amount of corporate euro bonds outstanding has surged by about 45% over the past three years, to €1.5 trillion ($1.75 trillion), including record euro-bonds issued by American junk-rated companies.

When credit risk is not being priced at all – when it’s free – this most important gauge of the credit market is worthless.

“You’re equally rewarding the A-plus student and the student who’s doing no homework and is just showing up,” Erdoes said at the conference, as reported by Bloomberg.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NIRP Did It: I’m in Awe of How Central-Bank Policies Blind Investors to Risks

NIRP Did It: I’m in Awe of How Central-Bank Policies Blind Investors to Risks

“Reverse-Yankee” Junk Bond Issuance Hits Record.

It’s paradise for US companies looking for cheap money. They range from sparkly investment-grade companies, such as Apple with its pristine balance sheet, to “junk” rated companies, such as Netflix with its cash-burn machine. They have all been doing it: Selling euro-denominated bonds in Europe.

The momentum for these “reverse Yankees” took off when the ECB’s Negative Interest Rate Policy and QE – which includes the purchase of euro bonds issued by European entities of US companies – pushed yields of many government bonds and some corporate bonds into the negative.

By now, yields in the land of NIRP have bounced off the ludicrous lows late last year, as the ECB has been tapering its bond purchases and has started waffling about rate hikes. Investors that bought the bonds at those low yields last year are now sitting on nice losses.

But that hasn’t stopped the momentum of reverse Yankees, especially those with a “junk” credit rating.

Bonds issued in euros in Europe by junk-rated US companies hit an all-time record in the first half of 2018, “taking advantage of decidedly cheaper financing costs in that market,” according to LCD of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

In the first half, US companies sold €8.2 billion of these junk-rated reverse-Yankee bonds, a new record (chart via LCD):

These bonds are hot for European investors who are wheezing under the iron fist of NIRP that dishes out guaranteed losses even before inflation on less risky bonds. Anything looks better than bonds with negative yields.

And here is why it makes sense for US companies to chase this money: It’s still ultra-cheap particularly for lower-rated companies. The chart below shows just how much sense it makes for the companies – though investors are going to have their day of reckoning.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kass – Risk Happens Fast

Risk Happens Fast

  • Risk happens fast – Trump trade policy whacks futures this morning
  • We remain in a trading sardine market – not an eating sardine market
  • Hastily crafted policy that conflates politics is dangerous in a flat and networked world
  • The return of an untethered Orange Swan is market unfriendly … brace yourselves
  • The Supreme Tweeter will likely “Make Uncertainty and Volatility Great Again” (#MUVGA)

The First Half of 2018

The first half of 2018 has been a tale of two markets. Maybe three markets.

January brought a market fervor – in which global equities rose dramatically, likely in response to the expected stimulative contribution and impact of the Administration’s reduction in statutory tax rates.

As interest rates began to climb in January, bullish investor sentiment crested and the risk parity trade went array.

Stocks fell violently in February and the new regime of volatility commenced – in a market revealed as increasingly illiquid.

The S&P Index fell from nearly 2900 and successfully tested the 2550 level twice. Several meek rallies commenced but the S&P had 2-3 more successful tests at about 2600 and stocks recently closed in on 2800 (S&P Index).

1Q-2018 corporate revenues and profits didn’t disappoint but the complexion of the market had clearly changed – and valuations (the S&P Index’s price earnings ratio expanded by almost 3 points in 2017) began to contract. Wall Street, which outperformed Main Street in 2017 – reversed roles in the first six months of 2018.

While the stock market reeled with volatility since January 1, the FAANG stocks generally stood tall throughout the year as the market narrowed and investor interest focused on the 5-10 anointed stocks.

The first half of 2018 was also characterized by a series of questionable and controversial presidential policies (the most recent being trade/tariff decisions) at the same time the Federal Reserve was pivoting on monetary policy. By overtly playing to his base, having little sense of economic history, Trump has contributed to even greater volatility in a market without memory from day to day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘Something’s Wrong’: The Fed’s Creating Risks – But The Markets Ignoring It

‘Something’s Wrong’: The Fed’s Creating Risks – But The Markets Ignoring It

The other day I published an article calling out the markets denial of rising risks.

Even with everything that’s happening in Italy and with the Emerging Markets blowing up – expected volatility has actually decreased. . .

Basically, the stock markets pricing everything in for perfection – that the economy and markets will have low-volatility, steady growth, and calming inflation.

At least the bond market isn’t as gullible as the yield curve stays relatively flat – and heading towards inversion.

So, is it just us handful of skeptics and contrarians that don’t believe the mainstreams ‘everything’s great’ story?

Here are a couple other big names that are now doubting the ‘goldilocks’ scenario. . .

Ray Dalio and his firm, Bridgewater Associates – the world’s largest hedge fund, has been in the public eye lately thanks to his new, bestselling book – Principles.

In Bridgewater’s recent Daily Observations, the fund warns that, “2019 is setting up to be a dangerous year, as the fiscal stimulus rolls off while the Fed’s tightening will be peaking…

Bridgwater concluded with. . .

“We are bearish on financial assets as the US economy progresses toward the late cycle, liquidity has been removed, and the markets are pricing in a continuation of recent conditions despite the changing backdrop…”

Another added to the list of skeptics – a Morgan Stanley Top Analysts made statements on Bloomberg that markets are “heading into a summer that’s going to stay volatile...”

The question now we must ask is: what seems to be the common denominator behind all this volatility, instability in emerging markets, and liquidity problems?

The answer: The Federal Reserve’s tightening.

The Fed has to realize what they’re doing – I refuse to believe that the supposedly ‘greatest financial minds’ don’t do their research about the correlation between ‘easy money booms’ and ‘tight money busts’.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Treasury Dept Warns Allies Against Accidentally Trading With Iran

US Treasury Dept Warns Allies Against Accidentally Trading With Iran

Companies ‘face substantial risks’ if they’re caught trading with Iran

The US Treasury Department on Tuesday issued a statement directed at allied governments, and private companies operating out of allied countries, warning them against any trade with Iran, warning they “face substantial risks” if they are caught.

Undersecretary of the Treasury Sigal Mandelker says that the world must “harden your financial networks,” and make sure they have “airtight” procedures in place to prevent even accidental business ties to Iran. He added that nations must make sure “Iran and its proxies are not exploiting your companies to support their nefarious activities.”

Though presented as a warning about being tricked by Iran, the warning is likely primarily directed at EU nations, as the EU has already decided to prohibit its companies complying with US sanctions on Iran. The EU is planning to try to block the US from punishing those companies, but many of the major businesses are being very cautious about new deals with Iran, fearing the US will go after them anyhow.

US sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program are expected to ratchet up in the next several months, after President Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal. Yet the deal remains in place, and many nations may not be willing to follow the US in this crackdown so long as Iran remains compliant.

This is Italy. This is not Sparta.

Nikolay Dubovsky Became Silent 1890

“European Stocks Surge Celebrating New Spanish, Italian Governments”, says a Zero Hedge headline. “Markets Breathe Easier As Italy Government Sworn In”, proclaims Reuters. And I’m thinking: these markets are crazy, and none of this will last more than a few days. Or hours. The new Italian government is not the end of a problem, it’s the beginning of many of them.

And Italy is far from the only problem. The new Spanish government will be headed by Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, who manoeuvred well to oust sitting PM Rajoy, but he also recently saw the worst election result in his party’s history. Not exactly solid ground. Moreover, he needed the support of Catalan factions, and will have to reverse much of Rajoy’s actions on the Catalunya issue, including probably the release from prison of those responsible for the independence referendum.

Nor is Spain exactly economically sound. Still, it’s not in as bad a shape as Turkey and Argentina. A JPMorgan graph published at Zero Hedge says a lot, along with the commentary on it:

The chart below, courtesy of Cembalest, shows each country’s current account (x-axis), the recent change in its external borrowing (y-axis) and the return on a blended portfolio of its equity and fixed income markets (the larger the red bubble, the worse the returns have been). This outcome looks sensible given weaker Argentine and Turkish fundamentals. And while Cembalest admits that the rising dollar and rising US rates will be a challenge for the broader EM space, most will probably not face balance of payments crises similar to what is taking place in Turkey and Argentina, of which the latter is already getting an IMF bailout and the former, well… it’s only a matter of time.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

After Italy… Spain Risk Soars

After Italy… Spain Risk Soars

Political risk in Europe was largely ignored in international markets because of the mirage of the so-called “Macron effect”. The ECB’s massive quantitative easing program and a perception that everything was different this time in Europe added to the illusion of growth and stability.

However, a storm was brewing and the same old problems seen throughout the years in Europe were increasing.

In Italy, the shock came with an election that brought a coalition of extreme left and extreme right populists. Disillusion with the Euro was evident in Italy for years, as the economy continued to be in stagnation while debt soared. However, international bodies, mainstream analysts, and banks preferred to ignore the risk, instead continuing to announce impossible growth estimates for the following year and science-fiction banks’ profitability improvements.

Italy’s economic problems are self-inflicted, not due to the Euro. Governments of all ideologies have consistently promoted inefficient dinosaur “national champions” and state-owned semi-ministerial corporations at the expense of small and medium enterprises, competitiveness and growth, labor market rigidities created high unemployment, while banks were incentivized to lend to obsolete and indebted state-owned companies in their disastrous empire-building acquisitions, inefficient municipalities, as well as finance bloated local and national government spending. This led to the highest Non-Performing Loan figure in Europe.

Now, the new government wants to solve a problem of high government intervention with more government intervention. The measures outlined would imply an additional deficit of some €130bn by 2020 and shoot the 2020 Deficit/GDP to 8%, according to Fidentiis.

Italy’s large debt and non-performing loans can create a much bigger problem than Greece for the EU. Because this time, the ECB has no tools to manage it. With liquidity at all-time highs and bond yields at all-time lows, there is nothing that can be done from a monetary policy perspective to contain a political crisis.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Eight Geopolitical Risks That Could Send Oil Prices Surging

Eight Geopolitical Risks That Could Send Oil Prices Surging

Oil

The geopolitical risk premium has taken center stage as one of the key drivers of oil prices in recent months, often trumping fundamentals to send prices soaring on concerns about where the next sudden oil supply disruption would come from.

In recent weeks, a perfect storm of nearly erased global oil glut and simmering—and at times flaring—tensions in the Middle East and the worst production loss without an armed conflict (Venezuela) have supported oil prices and boosted them to levels last seen in November 2014.

In the coming weeks and months, geopolitical risks could further boost oil prices in a market that hasn’t been this tight in years. The main risks to oil supply could come from the Middle East, North Africa, and Venezuela.

S&P Global Platts has summed up the key flashpoints around the world that could lead to oil supply disruptions, potentially further boosting oil prices.

Iran

OPEC’s third-largest producer Iran—which pumps 3.8 million bpd as per OPEC’s secondary sources—could be the most immediate threat to supply.

U.S. President Donald Trump has until May 12 to decide whether to waive the sanctions against Tehran as part of the nuclear deal that global powers signed with Iran. Analysts think that the possibility of President Trump not waiving the sanctions is high, but they diverge wildly as to how a no-waiver would impact Iran’s oil exports and global oil prices. Estimates vary from a zero to one million bpd loss of supply out of Iran, and a premium to oil prices of between $2 and $10. Iran’s top oil customers are China, India, and South Korea.

Yemen

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil

The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil

Oil tanker

Oil prices could rise due to the “perfect storm of stagnant supply, geopolitical risk, and a harsh winter,” according to an April 12 note from Barclays.

Geopolitical events specifically could help keep Brent above $70 through April and May, which comes on the back of a substantial decline in oil inventories.

The investment bank significantly tightened its forecast for Venezuelan production, lowering it to 1.1-1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), down sharply from its previous forecast of 1.4 mb/d. That helped guide the bank’s upward revision for its price forecast for both WTI and Brent in 2018 and 2019, a boost of $3 per barrel.

The flip side is that the explosive growth of U.S. shale keeps the market well supplied, and ultimately forces a downward price correction in the second half of the year, Barclays says. In fact, the investment bank said there are several factors that could conspire to kill off the recent rally. One of the looming supply risks is the potential confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. The re-implementation of sanctions threatens to cut off some 400,000 to 500,000 bpd of Iranian supply.

But Barclays says these concerns are “misguided,” with the risk overblown. “Yes, it should kill the prospects for medium-term oil investment, and yes it could destabilize the region further, but we struggle to accept a narrative that the market had been expecting big gains in Iranian output over the next several years anyway.” Moreover, the ongoing losses from Venezuela are also broadly accepted by most analysts. “Therefore, it is worth suggesting that in both of these countries, a dire scenario may already be priced in,” Barclays wrote.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Quick Take: The Risk Of Algos

Quick Take: The Risk Of Algos 

Mike ‘Wags’ Wagner: ‘You studied the Flash Crash of 2010 and you know that Quant is another word for wild f***ing guess with math.’

Taylor Mason: ‘Quant is another word for systemized ordered thinking represented in an algorithmic approach to trading.’

Mike ‘Wags’ Wagner: ‘Just remember Billy Beane never won a World Series .’ – Billions, A Generation Too Late

My friend Doug Kass made a great point on Wednesday this week:

“General trading activity is now dominated by passive strategies (ETFs) and quant strategies and products (risk parity, volatility trending, etc.).

Active managers (especially of a hedge fund kind) are going the way of dodo birds – they are an endangered species. Failing hedge funds like Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square is becoming more the rule than the exception – and in a lower return market backdrop (accompanied by lower interest rates), the trend from active to passive managers will likely continue and may even accelerate this year.”

He’s right, and there is a huge risk to individual investors embedded in that statement. As JPMorgan noted previously:

Quantitative investing based on computer formulas and trading by machines directly are leaving the traditional stock picker in the dust and now dominating the equity markets.

While fundamental narratives explaining the price action abound, the majority of equity investors today don’t buy or sell stocks based on stock specific fundamentals. Fundamental discretionary traders’ account for only about 10 percent of trading volume in stocks. Passive and quantitative investing accounts for about 60 percent, more than double the share a decade ago.

As long as the algorithms are all trading in a positive direction, there is little to worry about. But the risk happens when something breaks. With derivatives, quantitative fund flows, central bank policy and political developments all contributing to low market volatility, the reversal of any of those dynamics will be problematic.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Warns West Risks “Hot War” After Mass Expulsion Of Diplomats

After a legion of western nations announced this week that they would expel Russian diplomats in solidarity with the UK, one Russian ambassador warned during an impromptu unscripted speech that, by hastily blaming Moscow for the poisoning of a former Russian spy at a shopping center in Salisbury, the West was risking a return to the Cold War. A second Russian ambassador took the warning a step further, and claimed the West has inadvertently risked a “hot war” with Russia.

So far, 23 countries have expelled over 130 Russian diplomats since the UK pointed the finger at Russia, accusing it of organizing an assassination plot that involved poisoning former Russian spy Sergei Skripal with a Soviet-era nerve agent called Novichok.

The UK demanded that Russia explain how the nerve agent came to be used in the attack, if it wasn’t ordered by senior officials in the Russian government, per Newsweek.

Grigory Logvinov

Russia responded by demanding a sample of the chemical used, and offered to assist the UK in its investigation, but has been rebuffed. Meanwhile, the UK media reports say Skripal and his daughter Yulia Skripal may never fully recover from the attack.

Amid the escalating noise, Russia’s ambassador to Australia said on Wednesday that the world will enter into a “Cold War situation” should the West continue its “biased” attacks on Russia, according to Reuters.

“The West must understand that the anti-Russian campaign has no future,” Russian Ambassador Grigory Logvinov told reporters in Canberra.

“If it continues, we will be deeply in a Cold War situation.”

Australia said Tuesday it would expel two Russian diplomats, inspiring Logvinov to make his address warning of the dangers of deteriorating relations between Russia and its partners. So far, countries have at least stopped short of adding to the sanctions against Russia that were imposed following the annexation of Crimea.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Mind Blowing Concept of “Risk-Free’ier”

The Mind Blowing Concept of “Risk-Free’ier”

  • The Earth is flat
  • Cigarettes are healthy
  • Leeches are the cure for everything
  • The universe revolves around the Earth
  • California is an island
  • Red wine is healthy, unhealthy, healthy…

Facts are essential as they offer humans a sense of stability in a chaotic world. For instance, we find comfort in the “fact” that the life-sustaining sun will continue to shine for billions of years. If there were serious doubts about this fact, our lives would be very different today.

In this article, we debunk a “fact” that serves as the foundation for the pricing of all financial assets. It was not that long ago that people who thought the earth round were labeled delirious madmen. Today, questioning the “risk-free” status of U.S. Treasury securities (UST), as we do, will lead many financial professionals to decry our prudence as foolish irrationality. That said, we would rather assess the situation objectively than get caught “swimming naked when the tide goes out”.

Mesofacts

In a must-read article entitled, My Leitner-esque Moment, Kevin Muir of The Macro Tourist blog broaches the topic of sovereign debt risk and, in what must be a moment of temporary insanity, questions the so-called “risk-free” status of UST.

Sovereign debt risk exists and said bonds default from time to time. Despite history and facts, associating the word “risk” with UST is for some reason blasphemous amongst financial professionals. The yields of UST are treated by all investors, even those nay-sayers like Muir and ourselves, to be the risk-free rate. This argument does not refer to the risk of changing yields but more importantly to that of credit risk.

All financial and investment models and theories assume that UST have no credit risk which, by definition, implies zero chance of default. What in this world has no risk? If you can name something, congratulations, we cannot.

For background, consider that sovereign debt defaults have been commonplace among big and small countries. The graph below shows the frequency by country since 1800.

Graph Courtesy Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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