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The Biggest Risk In Today’s Oil Markets
The Biggest Risk In Today’s Oil Markets The oil market is “tightening up,” but the Trump administration could still spoil oil prices if its aggressive trade war against China drags down economic growth. The U.S. stepped up the trade conflict with China on Monday when the Trump administration announced $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese […]
We’re All Speculators Now
We’re All Speculators Now When the herd thunders off the cliff, most participants are trapped in the stampede.. One of the most perverse consequences of the central banks “saving the world” (i.e. saving banks and the super-wealthy) is the destruction of low-risk investments: we’re all speculators now, whether we know it or acknowledge it. The […]
Corporate Credit – A Chasm Between Risk Perceptions and Actual Risk
Corporate Credit – A Chasm Between Risk Perceptions and Actual Risk Shifts in Credit-Land: Repatriation Hurts Small Corporate Borrowers A recent Bloomberg article informs us that US companies with large cash hoards (such as AAPL and ORCL) were sizable players in corporate debt markets, supplying plenty of funds to borrowers in need of US dollars. […]
This Vital Oil And Gas Choke Point Could Be At Risk
This Vital Oil And Gas Choke Point Could Be At Risk Beijing is taking to task a Pentagon report, ”Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018” released last Thursday on China’s military activities. The annual report issued by the Pentagon and presented to Congress, highlights growing Chinese naval capability, all the […]
It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things)
It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things) The debt cycle, tariffs, and central bank hubris have created the conditions for a spectacular unwind of risk assets. Yesterday in Turkey: Lira Bulls and Bears Duke it Out On Twitter I asked, “Is there a bullish case for the Lira? One person thinks so. Most think otherwise.” […]
Weekly Commentary: Instability
Weekly Commentary: Instability With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market Instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, Indian rupee and others traded to record lows versus the greenback. The South African rand “flash crashed” […]
Kass: “Downside Risk Dwarfs Upside Reward”
Kass: “Downside Risk Dwarfs Upside Reward” ‘The boldness of asking deep questions may require unforeseen flexibility if we are to accept the answers.’ – Brian Greene * A pivot in monetary policy, a further rise in the risk free rate of return, policy and profit uncertainty and a softening in soft and hard high frequency economic […]
“That’s a Super Dangerous Place to Be”: CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management
“That’s a Super Dangerous Place to Be”: CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management When central banks distort the markets, risk disappears from view. “You could have a bunch of walking-zombie companies and you don’t even know it,” explained Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management, on Wednesday at the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York. […]
NIRP Did It: I’m in Awe of How Central-Bank Policies Blind Investors to Risks
NIRP Did It: I’m in Awe of How Central-Bank Policies Blind Investors to Risks “Reverse-Yankee” Junk Bond Issuance Hits Record. It’s paradise for US companies looking for cheap money. They range from sparkly investment-grade companies, such as Apple with its pristine balance sheet, to “junk” rated companies, such as Netflix with its cash-burn machine. They […]
Kass – Risk Happens Fast
Risk Happens Fast Risk happens fast – Trump trade policy whacks futures this morning We remain in a trading sardine market – not an eating sardine market Hastily crafted policy that conflates politics is dangerous in a flat and networked world The return of an untethered Orange Swan is market unfriendly … brace yourselves The […]
‘Something’s Wrong’: The Fed’s Creating Risks – But The Markets Ignoring It
‘Something’s Wrong’: The Fed’s Creating Risks – But The Markets Ignoring It The other day I published an article calling out the markets denial of rising risks. Even with everything that’s happening in Italy and with the Emerging Markets blowing up – expected volatility has actually decreased. . . Basically, the stock markets pricing everything […]
US Treasury Dept Warns Allies Against Accidentally Trading With Iran
US Treasury Dept Warns Allies Against Accidentally Trading With Iran Companies ‘face substantial risks’ if they’re caught trading with Iran The US Treasury Department on Tuesday issued a statement directed at allied governments, and private companies operating out of allied countries, warning them against any trade with Iran, warning they “face substantial risks” if they […]
This is Italy. This is not Sparta.
This is Italy. This is not Sparta. Nikolay Dubovsky Became Silent 1890 “European Stocks Surge Celebrating New Spanish, Italian Governments”, says a Zero Hedge headline. “Markets Breathe Easier As Italy Government Sworn In”, proclaims Reuters. And I’m thinking: these markets are crazy, and none of this will last more than a few days. Or hours. […]
After Italy… Spain Risk Soars
After Italy… Spain Risk Soars Political risk in Europe was largely ignored in international markets because of the mirage of the so-called “Macron effect”. The ECB’s massive quantitative easing program and a perception that everything was different this time in Europe added to the illusion of growth and stability. However, a storm was brewing and […]
Eight Geopolitical Risks That Could Send Oil Prices Surging
Eight Geopolitical Risks That Could Send Oil Prices Surging The geopolitical risk premium has taken center stage as one of the key drivers of oil prices in recent months, often trumping fundamentals to send prices soaring on concerns about where the next sudden oil supply disruption would come from. In recent weeks, a perfect storm […]
