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Tag Archives: recession
The Reckoning
The Reckoning The big macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention. The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on Brexit to perhaps delay the inevitable: The Coming Recession. This week’s full frontal capitulation by the Fed has not only removed a key […]
David Stockman: The Undrainable Swamp & The Inevitable Recession
David Stockman: The Undrainable Swamp & The Inevitable Recession What the future of the post “Peak Trump” era holds. Love it or hate it, the potency of the Trump Administration is on the wane, soon to be stuck in the mire of the Swamp it has deepend instead of drained, while the economy falls into […]
What Happens When More QE Fails to Reverse the Recession?
What Happens When More QE Fails to Reverse the Recession? The smart money is liquidating assets, paying off debt and moving capital into collateral that isn’t impaired by debt or speculative valuations. The Federal Reserve’s sudden return to “accommodative” dovishness in response to the stock market’s swoon telegraphs its intent to fire up QE once […]
What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021?
What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021? The banquet of consequences is now being served, but the good seats have all been taken.As I discussed in We’re Overdue for a Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession, recessions have a proximate cause and a structural cause. The proximate cause is often a spike in energy costs (1973, 1990) or a financial crisis triggered […]
We’re Overdue for a Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession
We’re Overdue for a Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession We’re way overdue for a sell-everything recession, one that the Fed will only make worse by pursuing its usual policies of lowering interest rates and goosing easy money. As I noted last week, central banks, like generals, always fight the last war–until the war is lost. The global economy is […]
Blain’s Morning Porridge – 11th February 2019
Blain’s Morning Porridge – 11th February 2019 “A little bit of an altercation in the scrum, they’ll be laughing at that in Hawick.” What a fascinating world we live in. Amazon boss Jeff Bezos exposing himself, and exposes the National Inquirer for attempted blackmail. A young senator, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, snaring the headlines and proposing a […]
The next recession could force the Fed to cut interest rates into negative territory. Here’s what that means, and how it could affect you.
The next recession could force the Fed to cut interest rates into negative territory. Here’s what that means, and how it could affect you. The San Francisco Federal Reserve recently published a paper indicating that an unprecedented policy step, if adopted, would have helped the economy recover more quickly from the most recent financial crisis. […]
Fed Will Crash Markets & Dollar, Gold Protects – John Williams
Fed Will Crash Markets & Dollar, Gold Protects – John Williams Economist John Williams warns the Federal Reserve has painted itself into a very tight no win corner. No matter what the Fed does with rates it’s going to be a disaster. Williams explains, “You had some very heavy selling towards the end of the […]
A Recession Survival Guide
A Recession Survival Guide The funny thing about slashing your budget to survive a recessionary storm is that it works wonders whether the recession is deep or shallow. We know that after 10 years of expansion, a recession is baked in. Trees don’t grow to the moon, etc. We also know that some people will hardly […]
The Next Recession: What It Could Look Like
The Next Recession: What It Could Look Like With the New Year and the US recovery soon to be record-breaking in duration, many are asking when the next recession is likely to come and what will cause it. While none of us has a crystal ball that gives a clear view of the future, there […]
The Last Two Times This Happened, A Crisis Hit Within 6 Months
The Last Two Times This Happened, A Crisis Hit Within 6 Months As I keep warning, the global economy is rapidly moving into a recession. If you don’t believe me, consider that in the last two weeks, the following have been announced… 1) South Korean exports, a critical measure for global growth, recorded a -1.2% […]
Collapse In Global M1 Signals A Worldwide Recession Has Arrived
Collapse In Global M1 Signals A Worldwide Recession Has Arrived By now everyone has seen some iteration of this chart showing that the annual change in central bank liquidity is now negative. Another way to visualize just the Fed’s balance sheet contraction is courtesy of this chart from Morgan Stanley which shows specifically which assets […]
Risks to the Global Economy in 2019
Adam Gault/Getty Image Risks to the Global Economy in 2019 Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo […]
Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed
Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed German, French, and Italian industrial production collapsed in November. Italy GDP is negative for 3rd Quarter. Italy GDP Italy’s GDP was negative for the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone’s third largest economy fell by 0.1 percent in July-September due to […]
Peter Schiff: This Is the Beginning of a Much Bigger Crisis (Video)
Peter Schiff: This Is the Beginning of a Much Bigger Crisis (Video) Wall Street has been on a roller coaster ride over the last few months. If you listen to the pundits on the financial networks, you’ll hear the word “volatile” used over and over again. That word certainly seems to describe the current state […]
