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Tag Archives: credit bubble bulletin
Weekly Commentary: Anbang and China’s Mortgage Bubble
Weekly Commentary: Anbang and China’s Mortgage Bubble The Shanghai Composite traded as high as 3,587 intraday on Monday, January 29th, a more than two-year high. This followed the S&P500’s all-time closing high (2,873) on the previous Friday. On February 9th, the Shanghai Composite traded as low as 3,063, a 14.6% decline from trading highs just […]
Weekly Commentary: Permanent Market Support Operations
Weekly Commentary: Permanent Market Support Operations U.S. stocks posted the strongest week of gains since 2013 (would have been 2011 if not for late-day selling). The S&P500 surged 4.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 5.3%. The small cap Russell 2000 rallied 4.4%. After closing last Friday at 29.06, the VIX settled back down to a […]
Weekly Commentary: The Grand Crowded Trade of Financial Speculation
Weekly Commentary: The Grand Crowded Trade of Financial Speculation Even well into 2017, variations of the “secular stagnation” thesis remained popular within the economics community. Accelerating synchronized global growth notwithstanding, there’s been this enduring notion that economies are burdened by “insufficient aggregate demand.” The “natural rate” (R-Star) has sunk to a historical low. Conviction in […]
Weekly Commentary: America First and the Decapitation of King Dollar
Weekly Commentary: America First and the Decapitation of King Dollar The U.S. ran a $71.6 billion Goods Trade Deficit in December, the largest goods deficit since July 2008’s $76.88 billion. The U.S. likely accumulated a near $550 billion Current Account Deficit in 2017, also near the biggest since before the crisis. Going all the way […]
Weekly Commentary: Mania
Weekly Commentary: Mania This might be the most fascinating market backdrop of my career. Not yet as dramatic as 1987, 1990, 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009 or 2012 – but, heck, we’re only two weeks into 2018 trading. In the first nine trading sessions of the year, the DJIA tacked on […]
Weekly Commentary: Issue 2018: Market Structure
Weekly Commentary: Issue 2018: Market Structure Financial conditions are much too loose. They remain too loose at home; they remain too loose abroad. January 3 – ETF.com (Heather Bell): “…ETF flows really blew away previous records. Flows into exchange-traded funds were going full blast throughout the year and finished on a particularly strong note. A […]
Weekly Commentary: A Phenomenal Year
Weekly Commentary: A Phenomenal Year 2017 was phenomenal in so many ways. The year will be remembered for a tumultuous first year of the Trump Presidency, the passage of major tax legislation and seemingly endless stock market records. It was a year of synchronized global growth and stock bull markets, along with record low market […]
Weekly Commentary: Epic Stimulus Overload
Weekly Commentary: Epic Stimulus Overload Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 13 bps this week to 2.48%, the high going back to March. German bund yields rose 12 bps to 0.42%. U.S. equities have been reveling in tax reform exuberance. Bonds not so much. With unemployment at an almost 17-year low 4.1%, bond investors have so far […]
Weekly Commentary: Chronicling for Posterity
Weekly Commentary: Chronicling for Posterity Janet Yellen’s Wednesday news conference was her final as Fed chair. Dr. Yellen has a long and distinguished career as an economist and public servant. Her four-year term at the helm of the Federal Reserve is almost universally acclaimed. History, however, will surely treat her less kindly. Yellen has been […]
Weekly Commentary: Q3 2017 Flow of Funds
Weekly Commentary: Q3 2017 Flow of Funds In nominal dollars, Total U.S. System (Non-Financial, Financial and Foreign) borrowings expanded $1.007 TN during the third quarter to a record $68.012 TN. Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) rose a nominal $732 billion during the quarter to a record $48.635 TN. It’s worth noting that NFD has expanded 46% […]
Weekly Commentary: China Initiating a Global Bear Market?
Weekly Commentary: China Initiating a Global Bear Market? Chair Yellen is widely lauded for her accomplishments at the Federal Reserve. For the most part, her four-year term at the helm of the Fed boils down to four (likely soon to be five) little rate hikes over 24 months. Most lavishing praise upon Janet Yellen believe […]
Weekly Commentary: “Not Clear What That Means”
Weekly Commentary: “Not Clear What That Means” November 15 – Bloomberg (Nishant Kumar and Suzy Waite): “Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn said the problems that caused the global financial crisis a decade ago still haven’t been resolved. ‘Have we learned our lesson? It depends what the lesson was…’ Einhorn said he identified several issues at the […]
Weekly Commentary: “Money” on the Move
Weekly Commentary: “Money” on the Move It’s been awhile since I’ve used this terminology. But global markets this week recalled the old “Bubble in Search of a Pin.” It’s too early of course to call an end to the great global financial Bubble. But suddenly, right when everything looked so wonderful, there are indication of […]
Weekly Commentary: End of an Era
Weekly Commentary: End of an Era Of the diverse strains of inflation, asset inflation is by far the most dangerous. A bout of consumer price inflation would be generally recognized as problematic and rectified through a tightening of monetary conditions. On the other hand, asset price inflation is both celebrated and venerated. There is simply […]
Must Stop Digging
Must Stop Digging Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Intel and Draghi all handily beat expectations. Booming technology earnings confirm the degree to which Bubble Dynamics have become entrenched within the real economy. Draghi confirms that central bankers remain petrified by the thought of piercing Bubbles. There is a prevailing view that Bubbles reflect asset price gains beyond […]
