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Moving Closer to the Precipice
Moving Closer to the Precipice Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Falter The decline in the growth rate of the broad US money supply measure TMS-2 that started last November continues, but the momentum of the decline has slowed last month (TMS = “true money supply”). The data were recently updated to the end […]
India: Why its Attempt to Go Digital Will Fail
India: Why its Attempt to Go Digital Will Fail India Reverts to its Irrational, Tribal Normal (Part XIII) Over the three years in which Narendra Modi has been in power, his support base has continued to increase. Indian institutions — including the courts and the media — now toe his line. The President, otherwise a […]
The Triumph of Hope over Experience
The Triumph of Hope over Experience The Guessers Convocation On Wednesday the socialist central planning agency that has bedeviled the market economy for more than a century held one of its regular meetings. Thereafter it informed us about its reading of the bird entrails via statement (one could call this a verbose form of groping […]
Ludwig von Mises’ Century of Validation
Ludwig von Mises’ Century of Validation Seeing the Light It has been said that “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” No one quite knows who first uttered this remark; it has been attributed to Albert Einstein, Mark Twain, Benjamin Franklin, and has even been […]
The Fed Will Blink
The Fed Will Blink Honest Profession GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow rose 174 points on Thursday. And Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said we’d have a new tax system by the end of the year. Animal spirits were restless. But which animals? Dumb oxes? Or wily foxes? Probably both. Since Thursday there have been two additional […]
Cracks in Ponzi-Finance Land
Cracks in Ponzi-Finance Land Retail Debt Debacles The retail sector has replaced the oil sector in a sense, and not in a good way. It is the sector that is most likely to see a large surge in bankruptcies this year. Junk bonds issued by retailers are performing dismally, and within the group the bonds […]
Hell To Pay
Hell To Pay Behind the Curve Economic nonsense comes a dime a dozen. For example, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen “think(s) we have a healthy economy now.” She even told the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy so earlier this week. Does she know what she’s talking about? Somehow, this cartoon never gets old… If […]
Doomsday Device
Doomsday Device Disappearing Credit All across the banking world – from commercial loans to leases and real estate – credit is collapsing. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing for British newspaper The Telegraph: Credit strategists are increasingly disturbed by a sudden and rare contraction of U.S. bank lending, fearing a synchronized slowdown in the U.S. and China this year […]
March to Default
March to Default Style Over Substance “May you live in interesting times,” says the ancient Chinese curse. No doubt about it, we live in interesting times. Hardly a day goes by that we’re not aghast and astounded by a series of grotesque caricatures of the world as at devolves towards vulgarity. Just this week, for […]
India: The next Pakistan?
India: The next Pakistan? India’s Rapid Degradation This is Part XI of a series of articles (the most recent of which is linked here) in which I have provided regular updates on what started as the demonetization of 86% of India’s currency. The story of demonetization and the ensuing developments were merely a vehicle for […]
The Long Run Economics of Debt Based Stimulus
The Long Run Economics of Debt Based Stimulus Onward vs. Upward Something both unwanted and unexpected has tormented western economies in the 21st century. Gross domestic product (GDP) has moderated onward while government debt has spiked upward. Orthodox economists continue to be flummoxed by what has transpired. What happened to the miracle? The Keynesian wet […]
Welcome to Totalitarian America, President Trump!
Welcome to Totalitarian America, President Trump! Trump vs. the Deep State If there had been any doubt that the land of the free and home of the brave is now a totalitarian society, the revelations that its Chief Executive Officer has been spied upon while campaigning for that office and during his brief tenure as […]
Speculative Blow-Offs in Stock Markets – Part 2
Speculative Blow-Offs in Stock Markets – Part 2 Blow-Off Pattern Recognition As noted in Part 1, historically, blow-patterns in stock markets share many characteristics. One of them is a shifting monetary backdrop, which becomes more hostile just as prices begin to rise at an accelerated pace, the other is the psychological backdrop to the move, which […]
A Mess 30 Years in the Making
A Mess 30 Years in the Making Promises of Slop “We have assembled a best-in-class team of policy advisors to drive President Trump’s bold plan for job creation and economic growth.” – Gary Cohn, Chief Economic Advisor to President Trump The art and science of spending other people’s money is not an occupation suited to […]
