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Tag Archives: volatility
“We Should Have Known Something Was Wrong”
“We Should Have Known Something Was Wrong” Remember when stuff such as the following was written exclusively on “conspiracy” tin-foil blogs by deranged lunatics who could not appreciate the brilliance of the neo-Keynesian system and central-planning by academics, in all its glory? Good times. Here is Bank of America’s Athanasios Vamvakidis channeling Tyler Durden circa […]
What’s The Worst That Could Happen?
What’s The Worst That Could Happen? Via ConvergEx’s Nicholas Colas, The 30 stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average currently trade for an average of 14.8x next year’s consensus earnings. But… Everyone knows Wall Street analysts are always too optimistic, so what if we just look at the lowest estimate for each company? That “Worst Case […]
This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank
This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank DB’s Jim Reid lays out the “endgame” scenario, one which this website first said is inevitable back in 2009. With Citi and Macquarie already on board, expect what was once merely the figment of a “deranged tinfoil conspiracy-theory blog’s” imagination, to become global monetary policy. And yes, the real endgame is the one […]
Powder Kegs Exploding: Violence Escalates In Turkey, Yemen As Mid-East Tips Towards Chaos
Powder Kegs Exploding: Violence Escalates In Turkey, Yemen As Mid-East Tips Towards Chaos On Friday we checked in on two of the world’s most important conflicts: 1) that which is unfolding in Turkey where President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an has effectively granted Washington access to Incirlik (you know, for “anti-terror” sorties) in exchange for NATO’s acquiescence […]
The Numbers Are In: China Dumps A Record $94 Billion In US Treasurys In One Month
The Numbers Are In: China Dumps A Record $94 Billion In US Treasurys In One Month Shortly after the PBoC’s move to devalue the yuan, we noted with some alarm that it looked as though China may have drawn down its reserves by more than $100 billion in the space of just two weeks. That, we went on […]
The IMF Just Confirmed The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks Is Now In Play
The IMF Just Confirmed The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks Is Now In Play The most important piece of news announced today was also, as usually happens, the most underreported: it had nothing to do with US jobs, with the Fed’s hiking intentions, with China, or even the ongoing “1998-style” carnage in emerging markets. Instead, […]
China Takes “10 Steps Back,” Slaps 20% Reserve Requirement On Currency Forwards
China Takes “10 Steps Back,” Slaps 20% Reserve Requirement On Currency Forwards Overnight, China decided to take steps to reduce “macro financial risks.” And by that they mean “do something quick to help ease pressure on the yuan” and by extension, on the PBoC’s rapidly depleting FX reserves. To that end, starting October 15 banks will […]
How China Cornered The Fed With Its “Worst Case” Capital Outflow Countdown
How China Cornered The Fed With Its “Worst Case” Capital Outflow Countdown Last week, in “What China’s Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse,” we took a look at the potential size of the RMB carry trade, noting that according to BofAML, the unwind could, in the worst case scenario, be somewhere on the […]
Here’s Why The Markets Have Suddenly Become So Turbulent
Here’s Why The Markets Have Suddenly Become So Turbulent A perfect storm of failing trends When stock markets are free-falling 10+% in a matter of days, it’s natural to seek some answers to the question “why now?” Some are saying it was all the result of high-frequency trading (HFT), while others point to China’s modest […]
“Central Bankers Look Naked… & Investors Have Nothing Else To Believe In”
“Central Bankers Look Naked… & Investors Have Nothing Else To Believe In” Via RBS’ Alberto Gallo, “Policymakers responded to the financial crisis with easy monetary policy and low interest rates. The critics — including us — argued against ‘solving a debt crisis with more debt.’ Put differently, we said that QE was necessary, but not […]
What If The “Crash” Is as Rigged as Everything Else?
What If The “Crash” Is as Rigged as Everything Else? Take your pick–here’s three good reasons to engineer a “crash” that benefits the few at the expense of the many. There is an almost touching faith that markets are rigged when they loft higher, but unrigged when they crash. Who’s to say this crash isn’t […]
Counterintuitive: (Some) volatility is good for you, stability not so much
Counterintuitive: (Some) volatility is good for you, stability not so much With stock markets around the world plunging and commodity prices in free fall, it seems appropriate to return to a theme which I’ve taken up previously: That a certain amount of volatility is good for humans and the systems they build, and that attempts to […]
Global Markets Turmoil After China Extends Currency War To 2nd Day – Devalues Yuan To 4 Year Lows
Global Markets Turmoil After China Extends Currency War To 2nd Day – Devalues Yuan To 4 Year Lows Chinese stocks opened lower, extending yesterday’s losses, after The PBOC weakened its Yuan FIX dramatically for the 2nd consecutive day(from 6.1162 Monday to 6.2298 last night to 6.3306). Offshore Yuan fell another 9 handles against the USD after China […]
This Is What Global Currency War Looks Like: A Complete History Of Recent FX Interventions
This Is What Global Currency War Looks Like: A Complete History Of Recent FX Interventions After the dramatic collapse in the SNB’s defense of the Swiss Franc peg to the Euro, there was a period of relative FX peace in which few if any central banks engaged in outright currency intervention (aside from the countless […]
The Irony Of Market Manipulation
The Irony Of Market Manipulation Having gazed ominously at the extreme monetary policy smoke-and-mirrors intervention in bond markets, and previously explained that “the stock market is to important to leave to the vagaries of an actual market.“ While the rest of the world’s central banks’ direct (BoJ) and indirect (Fed, ECB) manipulation of equity markets, nobody bats an eyelid; but […]
