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President Francois Hollande has publicly stated that the French economy is now in a state of “economic emergency.” He set out a €2bn job creation scheme in a desperate attempt to lift France out of an economic death spiral created by his socialistic policies that have raised taxes and chased out those who create wealth and jobs.

Hollande’s scheme, he proposes, will be a two-year plan where firms with less than 250 staff will get subsidies if they take on young or unemployed persons for six months or more. In addition, Hollande says he will create 500,000 vocational training courses, but that is pointless without firms hiring.

France’s unemployment rate is officially 10.6%, compared to a European Union average of 9.8%, and 4.2% in Germany. However, these numbers are modest and do not properly reflect the students who cannot get a job to start with. He also says that this program will be paid “without any new taxes of any kind.” I suppose he is finally realizing that raising taxes shrinks the private sector and that means less jobs are available.

Francois Hollande Admits Socialist Policies Failed, Declares “Economic State Of Emergency”

January 18, 2016

Francois Hollande Admits Socialist Policies Failed, Declares “Economic State Of Emergency”

Remember when showing ‘progress’ in Europe was as simple as pointing to your high stock market or low bond yields to “prove” everything is awesome.

Since 2012, when Mr Hollande came to power, more than 600,000 people have joined the ranks of the unemployed at a time when joblessness has decreased in most of the other large European economies.

Well for Francois Hollande, the days of hiding behing manipulated data are over and the open kimono reveals a nation whose stability is wracked by record unemployment. In a desperate-for-re-election speech today, The FT reports that socialist leader Hollande admitted his policies needed reform and that France is an economic “state of emergency.”

In a turn towards pro-business policies (sacre bleu!), Hollande prescribed new measures which involve the creation of 500,000 vocational training schemes, additional subsidies for small companies and a programme to boost apprenticeships.

With 15 months before the presidential election, the sense of urgency is also political for the socialist leader, who has tied his decision to run for a second mandate to his ability to curb unemployment significantly this year.

“We have to act so that growth becomes more robust and job creation more abundant,” Mr Hollande said in an address to unions and business leaders. “Our country has been facing structural unemployment for too long and it needs to reform.”

Under the plan, which takes effect immediately, companies with fewer than 250 workers will receive a €2,000 payout for hiring youths and unemployed people for contracts lasting more than six months at salaries below 1.3 times the minimum wage. After two years, the subsidy will become permanent in the form of a decrease in social security charges. The tax breaks previously announced will become permanent beyond 2017, he said.

The new measures, which will cost about €2bn, are seen as aimed at this political goal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada’s job recovery will reflect growing divergence between resource and export sectors: Don Pittis

January 8, 2016

Canada’s job recovery will reflect growing divergence between resource and export sectors: Don Pittis

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says rebuilding Canadian economy might be a 5-year healing process

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says the country is on track for slow job growth. But also expect a growing divergence between a weakening resource sector and a slowly recovering export economy.

“The chart between oil and the Canadian dollar looks like a pair of train tracks,” said Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz in Ottawa Thursday.

As Poloz was speaking, fears of a meltdown in China, one of the world’s biggest resource consumers, was sending Canada’s commodities-heavy stock index to a bear market close.

The governor’s folksy description of oil and loonie plunging in perfect parallel was in sharp contrast to what he sees as the result of that plunge: a sharp divergence, not just between the U.S. and Canadian economies but between Canada’s shrinking oil and resources sector and a recovery in other parts of the economy.

That double divergence is expected to show up in the jobs market — and the recovery won’t be quick.

Despite the new gloom that accompanied the global market tumble, Poloz said, there is already evidence of what he called a “solid U.S. economic expansion.” This week, an independent payroll survey showed the private sector created 257,000 jobs in December, the most in 12 months.

Growing gap

U.S. economists are forecasting that Friday’s job numbers will show 200,000 new jobs created in December and are predicting unemployment will stay at a low five per cent — whereas Canada’s unemployment rate lingers around seven per cent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spain has Fallen – not like Greece – but Fallen all the Same

January 1, 2016

Spain has Fallen – not like Greece – but Fallen all the Same

The Spanish elections – 20 December – were a deceit and a farce. Nobody seems to notice. At least not those concerned, the ignorant electorate, those who will suffer again possibly under a new neoliberal Rajoy leadership.

People forget and are vulnerable to propaganda and lies and manipulations through the bought media in Europe as much as in the US. And this in Spain of all places, where unemployment is still hovering around the 20% – 25% mark, with youth unemployment around 50%, and where an average grad student coming out of university earns on average 1,000 euros or less per month, if he can find a job; hardly a liveable wage.

Others have to survive on monthly incomes in the 500 to 800 euro range. Spain, a country like Greece, where neoliberal troika policies cut minimum wages, pensions, increased retirement age, privatized the health system – and are at the verge of privatizing education. Spain, a country where the ruling Partido Popular (PP) was and still is involved in horrendous corruption scandals all the way to the top, as was widely divulged earlier this year even by the mainstream media. Does it not seem absurd that in this miserably down-trodden Spain, the largest single block of people are no more awake than voting again for their hangman?

Maybe they are awake, but stunned of the results and are too tired from working for peanuts than ‘wasting’ their scarce spare-time to investigate election results, analysing how elections could have turned out the way they did: The arch-conservative neoliberal PP winning a majority of parliamentary seats – 123 (28.7% of votes), though a far cry from the absolute majority (176) and a drop of 64 seats from 2011; the PSOE (Socialist Party) coming in with 22% and 90 seats (down 20), its worst result ever; the up-and-coming PODEMOS – gaining 69 seats (20.7%); and the new center-right Ciudadanos Party winning 40 seats (13.9%), the latter two from basically zero in 2011.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is Canada’s Depression: Surging Crime, Soaring Suicides, Overwhelmed Food Banks “And The Worst Is Yet To Come”

December 23, 2015

This Is Canada’s Depression: Surging Crime, Soaring Suicides, Overwhelmed Food Banks “And The Worst Is Yet To Come”

Back in March, we brought you “Drugs, Prostitution, Violence Plague Oil Boom Towns Gone Bust,” in which we detailed the plight of towns like Sidney and Bainville, Montana, where the slump in oil revenue has made it all but impossible for local authorities to cope with surging crime rates that some attribute to the influx of oil workers the communities experienced in the good old days of high crude prices.

The problem, apparently, was that despite the dramatic slump in oil, companies hadn’t yet begun to cut jobs or slash capex and so, officials were left with less money to put towards policing their growing populations.

As dangerous as it may be for small towns to experience exponential growth in what The Washington Post describedas “highly paid oil workers living in sprawling ‘man camps’ with limited spending opportunities,” what’s even more dangerous is the prospect that suddenly, the majority of those workers will be jobless. That is, if there’s anything that’s more conducive to raising the crime rate than legions of highly paid young men living in small towns with “limited spending opportunities,” it’s legions of formerly highly paid young men stuck in small towns with limited job opportunities.

With that in mind, America can look north to Calgary for a preview of what’s in store for America’s oil boom towns.

Although Alberta’s largest city bares little resemblance to Sidney and Bainville, the three do have one thing in common: oil. “Calgary boasted one of the lowest jobless rates in Canada as crude prices rose over $100 a barrel [but] it’s now reeling after a global glut pushed prices down by two-thirds,” Bloomberg notes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Next Domino: CANADA

December 13, 2015

The Next Domino: CANADA

The Federal Reserve has kept its zero interest rate policy (‘ZIRP’) for several years (and much longer than originally anticipated) whilst the European Central Bank seems to be getting serious about doing ‘better’ and has now reduced the deposit rate at the ECB to -0.30%. It’s already remarkable a central bank doesn’t seem to have any problem to reduce interest rates into the negative territory, but now Canada is considering making the same step as well.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Even though Canada’s benchmark interest rate is still relatively ‘high’ at 0.5%, the governor of the Central Bank of Canada has now hinted at a negative interest rate as well. That’s interesting, but not really surprising when you look at the current situation of the mining sector and the oil and gas sector, which have been important backbones of the Canadian economy for quite a while.

The gold and copper price aren’t really giving mining companies a lot of hope and not only have the corporate tax payments from the sector been reduced, several mines have announced layoffs, reducing the employment rate in Canada. That’s tough luck, but the oil and gas sector might be in an even worse shape, and especially the province of Alberta will be in for a lot of pain in 2016 (and we would honestly be extremely surprised if the GDP in Alberta would increase ). Unfortunately this will create a ripple-effect throughout the entire Canadian economy and the Toronto Stock Exchange has lost 17.5% since April of this year which is more than three times as much as the loss of the Dow Jones Index in the same time frame.

Source: stockcharts.com

Just have a look at the oil and gas price, and it shouldn’t surprise you the majority of the oil and gas producers is ‘underwater’ and won’t generate a profit this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Rumors of New Bank Bailouts in Spain

December 10, 2015

Rumors of New Bank Bailouts in Spain

Just when the government touts its miracle economy!

Spain will hold do-or-die general elections on December 20. The Rajoy government hopes that recent improvements in economic performance will be enough to cast its gargantuan political scandals to the back of voters’ minds.

The economy is firing on all cylinders, it claims. To paraphrase Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro, Spain’s economy should serve as a shining example to the world. It is expected to grow by 3% this year, no mean feat in a region plagued by sub-par growth.

However, not everybody’s buying the government’s version of reality: poverty is growing at a startling rate, unemployment continues to hover on the wrong side of the 20% mark, and public debt is almost three times what it was at the beginning of the crisis [read: Six Nagging Facts About Spain’s Recovery].

To make matters worse, the European Commission has just pointed out, albeit as quietly as possible, that despite all the untold billions spent over the last four years trying to save Spain’s rickety financial system, the risk exposure of Spanish banks remains inordinately high. Many banks have been caught engaging in “abusive” mortgage lending practices and could end up having to pay back customers billions of euros.

But not until after the elections!

For years now, Spanish banks have been featuring so-called “floor clauses” in their variable-rate home mortgages, often without informing homebuyers. The variable rate is usually based on Euribor plus a differential. But these clauses set a “floor” or minimum interest rate that clients have to pay the bank, even if Euribor drops far below that figure. And in today’s zero-interest-rate environment, with Euribor at 0.05%, that can make a big difference.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It Begins: Desperate Finland Set To Unleash Helicopter Money Drop To All Citizens

December 7, 2015

It Begins: Desperate Finland Set To Unleash Helicopter Money Drop To All Citizens

With Citi’s chief economist proclaiming “only helicopter money can save the world now,”and the Bank of England pre-empting paradropping money concerns, it appears that Australia’s largest investment bank’s forecast that money-drops were 12-18 months away was too conservative.

Over the last few months, in a prime example of currency failure and euro-defenders’ narratives, Finland has been sliding deeper into depression. Almost 7 years into the the current global expansion, Finland’s GDP is 6pc below its previous peak. As The Telegraph reports, this is a deeper and more protracted slump than the post-Soviet crash of the early 1990s, or the Great Depression of the 1930s. And so, having tried it all, Finnish authorities are preparing to unleash “helicopter money” to save their nation by giving every citizen a tax-free payout of around $900 each month!

Just over two years ago, when the world was deciding who would be Bernanke Fed Chair replacement, Larry Summers or Janet Yellen (how ironic that Larry Summers did not get the nod just because a bunch of progressive economists thought he would not be dovish enough) we wrote about a different problem: with the end of QE3 upcoming and with the inevitable failure of the economy to reignite (again), we warned that there remains one option after (when not if) QE fails to stimulate growth: helicopter money.

While QE may be ending, it certainly does not mean that the Fed is halting its effort to “boost” the economy. In fact… the end of QE may well be simply a redirection, whereby the broken monetary pathway, one which uses banks as intermediaries to stimulate inflation (supposedly a failure according to the economist mainstream), i.e., “second-round effects”, is bypassed entirely and replaced with Plan Z, aka “Helicopter Money” mentioned previously as an all too real monetary policy option by none other than Milton Friedman and one Ben Bernanke. This is also known as the nuclear option.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Brazil Devolves Into Full-Blown Political Crisis With Launch Of Impeachment Proceedings Against President Rouseff

December 2, 2015

Brazil Devolves Into Full-Blown Political Crisis With Launch Of Impeachment Proceedings Against President Rouseff

Moments ago Brazil lower house chief Eduardo Cunha announced that he has accepted an impeachment request filed by Helio Bicudo. Cunha told reporters in Brasilia that the decision is not political, and while one can debate that, the implications will have a tremendous impact on both Brazil’s political situation not to mention its already imploding economy.

As Bloomberg adds, Cunha told reporters in Brasilia on Wednesday he “profoundly regrets” what’s happening. “May our country overcome this process.” The impeachment process could take months, involving several votes in Congress that ultimately may result in the president’s ouster. Rousseff would challenge any impeachment proceedings in the Supreme Court, according to a government official with direct knowledge of her defense strategy.

The speaker’s decision will put the president’s support in Congress to a test after government and opposition spent months trying to rally lawmakers to their sides. The move also threatens to paralyze Rousseff’s economic agenda as she focuses on saving her political life rather than reviving growth. Her ouster would mark the downfall of the ruling Workers’ Party that won global renown for lifting tens of millions from poverty before becoming ensnared in Brazil’s largest-ever corruption scandal.

Accusations that top members of her party accepted bribes, coupled with surging consumer prices and rising unemployment, have driven Rousseff’s approval rating to record lows. The majority of Brazilians in public opinion polls agreed that Congress should open impeachment proceedings against the president.

The story gets better because Cunha himself is facing allegations that he accepted kickbacks and hid the money in overseas accounts. The lower house ethics committee is considering whether to open a probe that could result in his removal from office. His decision today comes after Workers’ Party members on the committee agreed Dec. 2 to vote in favor of investigating Cunha. The speaker denies wrongdoing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sweden Warns Of Dire “Consequences” From Massive Housing Bubble, Heavily Indebted Households

November 25, 2015

Sweden Warns Of Dire “Consequences” From Massive Housing Bubble, Heavily Indebted Households

Late last month, Sweden tripled down on QE, as the Riksbank announced it would expand its asset purchases by SEK65 billion. Or, visually:

The recent history of Swedish monetary policy is viewed by some as a cautionary tale about what can happen when a central bank attempts to normalize policy too “early.” As a reminder, the Riskbank began raising rates in 2010. Reminiscing about the bank’s decision four years later, Paul Krugman blew a gasket on the way to accusing Sweden of being a nefarious lot of job hating heretics hell bent on perpetuating global inequality by enriching creditors at the expense of impoverished debtors.

Of course Krugman needn’t have been so hard on the Riksbank. After all, they reversed course a little over a year later and since then, it’s been nothing but easing as the repo rate fell 35 bps into negative territory.

The problem, as we’ve documented quite extensively, is that Sweden’s adventures in NIRP-dom have done little to boost inflation (to be fair, unemployment has fallen).

For the Paul Krugmans of the world, that’s evidence of a hangover from the series of hikes the Riksbank embarked on beginning in 2010. For anyone who is sane, it’s evidence that, i) unconventional monetary policy is bumping up against the law of diminishing returns , and ii) when everyone is easing, no one gets the benefits.

But while NIRP may not be doing much for inflation, it sure has been effective at creating a rather scary looking housing bubble. Have a look:

We discussed this at length in “Sweden Goes Full Krugman, Gets Massive Housing Bubble.” Here’s what the Riskbank had to say about this after its September meeting:

“Low interest rates contribute to the trends of rising house prices and increasing indebtedness in the Swedish household sector continuing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Judgment Day At Hand?

November 12, 2015

Is Judgment Day At Hand?

What is Judgment Day?

It is like ancient times that the Feds, under Greenspan, somehow decided that US needed to follow a zero interest rate policy, a policy now known as the ZIRP. It was 2008 when Bernanke gave birth to the term Quantitative Easing, QE. QE was followed by Operation Twist, and its sequels – QE2 and QE3.

The new buzzword is “normalization”. Normalization is the reversal of the QE operations and the raising of interest rates to above zero. Whether we agree or disagree is irrelevant. The fact is that the BLS just declared the unemployment rate is at 5%, a level that should justify initiating the normalization process starting with the next FOMC meeting in December. In other words, judgment day is at hand.

juday Batten down the hatches, judgment day approacheth
Image credit: World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)

The following two charts summarize the Fed’s policies nicely. The first shows the Federal Funds rate. It dropped from over 5% in 2007 to zero today. So we are making a big deal over a possible 25 basis points hike? I will leave that question for later.

Effective Federal Funds rate. It may be hiked from nothing to almost nothing soon, but what difference would it really make? – click to enlarge.

The second chart shows the Fed Balance Sheet, also starting in 2007. It went from $875 billion in 2007 to $4.5 trillion today, an increase of $3.625 trillion.

Total assets held by the Federal reserve. This unprecedented intervention has delivered “the weakest economic recovery of the entire post-WW2 era”. This result should be no surprise to anyone, except perhaps the monetary mandarins themselves – click to enlarge.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Looking at the two charts above, they beg the question: How do you normalize the extreme policies of the last 8 years? If normal means a return to a 5% federal funds rate and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet back to under $1 trillion, we have a hell of a long way to go.

The Re-enserfment of Western Peoples

November 9, 2015

The Re-enserfment of Western Peoples

The re-enserfment of Western peoples is taking place on several levels. One about which I have been writing for more than a decade comes from the offshoring of jobs. Americans, for example, have a shrinking participation in the production of the goods and services that are marketed to them.

On another level we are experiencing the financialization of the Western economy about which Michael Hudson is the leading expert (Killing The Host). Financialization is the process of removing any public presence in the economy and converting the economic surplus into interest payments to the financial sector.

These two developments deprive people of economic prospects. A third development deprives them of political rights. The Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic Partnerships eliminate political sovereignty and turn governance over to global corporations.

These so called “trade partnerships” have nothing to do with trade. These agreements negotiated in secrecy grant immunity to corporations from the laws of the countries in which they do business. This is achieved by declaring any interference by existing and prospective laws and regulations on corporate profits as restraints on trade for which corporations can sue and fine “sovereign” governments. For example, the ban in France and other counries on GMO products would be negated by the Trans-Atlantic Partnership. Democracy is simply replaced by corporate rule.

I have been meaning to write about this at length. However, others, such as Chris Hedges, are doing a good job of explaining the power grab that eliminates representative government.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/The-Most-Brazen-Corporate-by-Chris-Hedges-American-Hypocrisy_Americans-For-Prosperity_Corporate-Citizenship_Corporate-Crime-151107-882.html

The corporations are buying power cheaply. They bought the entire US House of Representatives for just under $200 million. This is what the corporations paid Congress to go along with “Fast Track,” which permits the corporations’ agent, the US Trade Representative, to negotiate in secret without congressional input or oversight. http://www.opednews.com/articles/Almost-200-Million-Donate-by-Paola-Casale-Banking_Congress_Control_Corporations-150620-523.html

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Lost in Extrapolation

October 29, 2015

Lost in Extrapolation

Phillips Curve Fail

In the late 1970s the impossible happened. Inflation and unemployment simultaneously went vertical. The leading economists of the day were flummoxed.

summers Larry Summers favors us with his “eternal stagnation” shrug. The man is a sheer inexhaustible fount of truly atrocious ideas. As we have previously pointed out, when he’s around, the economy can only be deemed safe under certain circumstances.
Photo credit: Reuters

The Phillips curve said there’s an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. When unemployment goes down, inflation goes up. Conversely, when unemployment goes up, inflation goes down.

These are the data economist William Phillips originally studied – wage rates vs. unemployment in the UK in the years 1913 to 1948. Phillips’ study will forever stand as a monument as to why economic theory cannot possibly be derived from empirical data. In the wake of the 1970s experience, at least seven Nobel prizes in economics were awarded for work that debunked the Phillips curve-based assumptions of the Keynesians in some shape or form. Recently its long dead cousin NAIRU has risen from the grave again, like a zombie – click to enlarge.

How could it be that both were going up at once? Weren’t they mutually exclusive? Indeed, it took years of heavy handed government intervention to pull off such a feat.

When unemployment began creeping up in the 1970’s the U.S. Treasury, with backing from the Federal Reserve, did what Keynes had told them to do. They spent money to stimulate the economy and spur jobs creation.

According to the Phillips curve, with rising unemployment the planners could have their cake and eat it too. They could run large deficits without inflation.

Unfortunately, something unexpected happened. Instead of jobs they got inflation. Then, when they tried it again, they still didn’t get jobs. Astonishingly, they got more inflation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sweden Launches MOAR QE, As Krugman Paradise Quadruples Down After Dovish Draghi

October 28, 2015

Sweden Launches MOAR QE, As Krugman Paradise Quadruples Down After Dovish Draghi

Over the last six months, we’ve documented Sweden’s descent into the Keynesian Twilight Zone in great detail.

Once upon a time, the Riksbank actually tried to raise rates, only to be lambasted by a furious Paul Krugman who accused the central bank of unnecessarily transforming Sweden from “recovery rockstar” to deflationary deathtrap. Tragically, the Riksbank listened to Krugman and reversed course in 2011. Before you knew it, rates had plunged 35 basis points into NIRP-dom. Unemployment subsequently fell, but the promised lift in inflation didn’t quite pan out. Sweden did, however, get a massive housing bubble for their trouble:

h/t @auaurelija

Obviously, those charts beg the question of why in the world Sweden (or Denmark, or Norway for that matter… or hell, even the US) are trying to contend that there’s no inflationary impulse, but let’s leave that for another day.

As for the Riksbank’s QE program, things began to go awry during the summer when the central bank managed to buy such a large percentage of the stock of government bonds that market depth was affected, causing investors to reconsider the trade off between liquidity and the benefits of frontrunning central bank asset purchases. In short, government bond yields began to rise in what perhaps marked the first instance of QE actually breaking.

But that didn’t stop the Riksbank from doubling down and increasing their asset purchases just a week later.

Since then, it’s been touch and go, with Stefan Ingves looking warily south towards Frankfurt hoping Mario Draghi doesn’t do something that sends the krona soaring on the way to ushering in a deflationary impulse.

Well, that’s exactly what Draghi did last week when the ECB telegraphed either a further depo rate cut, an expansion of PSPP, or both in December. That pretty much sealed the deal for the Riksbank – either cut, expand QE, or concede defeat in the global currency wars.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Debt, Peak Doubt, & Peak Double-Down

October 20, 2015

Peak Debt, Peak Doubt, & Peak Double-Down

Time to Hike Rates
It makes little sense to me why the market is only pricing a 6% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting, 30% for December, and only a near 50/50 probability all the way out to March 2016. The statutory mandates of the Fed as stated in the Federal Reserve Act are “maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates”. All three have been fully realized.

The unemployment rate is 5.1% (full-employment). Core CPI has been stable for years and printed 1.9% yesterday; remarkably close to the Fed’s self-imposed target of 2%. For a few years, Treasury rates have been stable at near-historical low levels. In addition, the 4-week moving average of Unemployment Claims fell to its lowest level since 1973. The most recent employment report was a bit weaker than expected, but it fell within a standard margin of error. Yet, the Fed continues to remain at the emergency rate of 0.0%.

At the September meeting, the FOMC talked up the economy, but refrained again from hiking rates, citing “international developments”. By making this decision, the Fed has to be careful it does not also provide an ‘emerging markets put’.

As the October meeting approaches, international developments have settled down. Emerging market stocks indexes and currencies have bounced since the September FOMC meeting. Chinese markets in particular have calmed down and have traded higher. The US stock market is higher. The trade-weighted dollar is lower. Credit spreads are tighter. The arguments for a hike at the October or December meeting should have increased not decreased.

The recalibration in rate hike probabilities could be the result of the “data dependent” language which has never been adequately defined. It is suspect to believe that monetary policy for an $18 trillion complex global economy is being determined by a backward looking piece of monthly economic data.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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