BREAKING: Chinese stock market ends 3% lower, w/ 1,200+ stocks down 10% daily limit; Chinese media admit gov “failure to boost market” today
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Chinese Stock Plunge Resumes With 1200 Stocks Halted Limit Down; Yellen, Greek Elections On Deck
Chinese Stock Plunge Resumes With 1200 Stocks Halted Limit Down; Yellen, Greek Elections On Deck
Just when the Chinese plunge protection team (and “arrest shortie” task force) seemed to be finally getting “malicious selling” under control, first we saw a crack yesterday when the composite broke the surge of the past three days as a result of yet another spike in margin debt funded purchases, but it was last night’s reminder that “good news is bad news” that really confused the stock trading farmers and grandmas, which goalseeked Chinese economic “data” beat across the board, with Q2 GDP coming solidly above expectations at 7.0%, and retail sales and industrial production both beating, but in the process raising doubts that the PBOC will continue supporting stocks.
After all, the only purpose of the stock bubble was to deflect attention from the bursting of the housing bubble and the collapse elsewhere in the economy. So if Beijing is willing to telegraph that the worst is over for the economy, there is no further need for SHCOMP 5000 which can now be carefully deflated, as otherwise a violent bursting threatens China’s social stability.
As a result the Shanghai Comp tumbled -3.0% and Hang Seng slid -0.3% with markets showing a subdued reaction as the data does dampen calls for further actions by the PBoC. However that does not do justice to yet another day of Chinese stock insanity. This does:
The Crash in China Continues – and is Engulfing Hong Kong
The Crash in China Continues – and is Engulfing Hong Kong
Efforts of Potent Directors Ignored
When we first commented on the emerging problems with China’s market bubble, we warned that although a bounce from oversold levels was the most likely outcome, it wasn’t set in stone. It appeared to us that Chinese investors were especially prone to falling for the “potent directors fallacy” (a term coined by Robert Prechter of EWI many years ago) – the belief that powerful decision makers, in this case the central bank and the government – would be willing and able support the market no matter what. Willing they have been – able, less so.
Chinese retail investors are shell-shocked
Photo credit: EPA
For a long time it has been the general impression that due to its tight control over the banking system and other sectors in the economy, China’s leadership could just “order the markets around”. Investors who were aware of China’s enormous debt problems and its insanely overvalued real estate markets were regularly baffled by the fact that China’s mandarins were apparently capable of arresting any decline in prices or any emerging credit blow-ups with the flick of a finger. Faith in their abilities is currently being shaken to its core. This is highly relevant to the asset bubbles currently underway in other countries, even though what happens in China has little direct effect due to the country’s closed capital account.
China’s stock market crash just keeps going – the index has now reached an important lateral support level. It will probably bounce from there, but for a variety of reasons this is actually somewhat less certain than it would otherwise be – click to enlarge.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Chinese Stocks Crash Most In 19 Years, Re-Open Limit Down (Despite PBOC Hail Mary)
Chinese Stocks Crash Most In 19 Years, Re-Open Limit Down (Despite PBOC Hail Mary)
Carnage…
- *CHINA STOCK PANIC SELLING TO CONTINUE, CENTRAL CHINA ZHANG SAYS
This leave China’s CSI-300 broad stock index futures up just 7% year-to-date…
- *CHINA CSI 500 STOCK-INDEX FUTURES FALL BY MAXIMUM 10% LIMIT
- *CHINA CSI 500 STOCK-INDEX FUTURES FALL BY LIMIT FOR 2ND DAY
- *HKEX DROPS AS MUCH AS 7.3%, MOST SINCE SEPT. 2011
- *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO 7.5%
- *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE HEADS FOR BIGGEST 3-DAY DROP SINCE 1996
Carnage-er…
- *CHINA’S CSI 300 INDEX FALLS 3.4% TO 4,190.3 AT BREAK
- *CHINA’S SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FALLS 3.8% TO 4,035.48 AT BREAK
- *CHINA’S CSI 500 STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES TO 5.7%
- *CHINEXT INDEX PLUNGES 7.8% FOR 3-DAY 20% SLIDE
After The People’s Daily proclaimed… “investors were moved to tears” thanks to the PBOC’s actions…
- *FOUNDATIONS FOR A-SHARES ARE `SOLID’: CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL
- *CHINA STOCK MARKET TO HAVE 30 YEARS `GOLDEN AGE’: SEC. JOURNAL
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Lesson In China: Don’t Go Bubble In the First Place
The Lesson In China: Don’t Go Bubble In the First Place
There can be no mistaking that Chinese stocks are in a bubble. Since November 21, the Shanghai SSE Composite index has risen more than 100%. Going back to July 22, the gain is nearly 145%. Those dates are not random coincidence, as they mark specific points of PBOC activity. The stock bubble in China is certainly a monetary affair, but in ways that aren’t necessarily comparable to our own stock bubble experience (twice).
There is, of course, great similarities starting with leverage; in China at the moment there is no shortage, which is precisely the problem. It is quite precarious, though, in that the PBOC has at times shown far more open contempt for Chinese stock margin than the Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan ever did.
Stock forecasters in search of an early-warning system for the next Chinese bear market are zeroing in on the country’s record $358 billion pile of margin debt.
When that three-year build-up of leveraged positions starts to unwind, regulators will struggle to limit the selloff, according to Bocom International Holdings Co. and Rabobank International. Almost all of this year’s biggest declines in the Shanghai Composite Index, including a 6.5 percent slump on May 28, were sparked by investor concerns over margin-trading restrictions. The securities regulator announced plans Friday to limit the amount brokerages can lend for stock trading.
Unlike central banks here and elsewhere, the PBOC has a vastly different understanding and appreciation for asset bubbles, at least to the point that in 2014 and 2015 under reform it is not shirking responsibility for them. The Federal Reserve, in particular, had long been against any linkage between monetarism and asset bubbles, believing instead that they were fully contained under “market” irregularities (that has evolved, somewhat, under the relatively new Yellen Doctrine). I’m not sure the PBOC ever went so far as to completely delink its own activities from asset bubbles, but it at one point was clearly embracing of them even if reluctantly part of a greater government mandate.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Considers Launching QE; Shanghai Stocks Soar
China Considers Launching QE; Shanghai Stocks Soar
Nearly two months ago we explained “How Beijing Is Responding To A Soaring Dollar, And Why QE In China Is Now Inevitable” in which we cited Cornerstone who reminded us “that from 2007 to late 2008, U.S. fed funds dropped 500 bp, and then the Fed still needed to do QE? The backdrop for China looks a bit similar. We had a credit bubble, they have a credit bubble. We had a housing bubble, they have a housing/investment bubble. Will China eventually have to go down the same path as the U.S., and the Eurozone? … The PBoC will first cut rates to 0%, before contemplating QE.”
To this we added that “once China, that final quasi-Western nation, proceeds to engage in outright monetization of its debt, then and only then will the terminal phase of the global currency wars start: a phase which will, because global economic growth and that all important lifeblood of a globalized economy – trade – at that point will be zero if not negatve, will see an unprecedented crescendo of money printing by absolutely everyone, before coordinated devaluations mutate into uncoordinated, and when central bank actions morph from “all for one” to “each man for himself.”
We may not have long to wait because just hours ago, MarketNews first among the wire services hinted at what we suggested was the endgame.
- *PBOC DISCUSSING DIRECT PURCHASES OF LOCAL GOVT BONDS: MNI
- *PBOC IS DISCUSSING UNCONVENTIONAL POLICIES: MNI
Bloomberg adds more, citing MNI as saying that the Chinese central bank discussing “adopting unconventional policies to rebuild its balance sheet and reinvigorate economy, including making direct purchases of local government bonds from market.”
Of just as we predicted.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why The Record Drop In Chinese House Prices Suggests Beijing Is Already In A Recession
Why The Record Drop In Chinese House Prices Suggests Beijing Is Already In A Recession
Another month, and another confirmation that China’s hard landing is if not here, then likely mere months away.
Overnight, the NBS reported that in March, Chinese house prices dropped in 69 of 70 cities compared to a year ago. According to Goldman’s seasonal adjustments, in March home prices dropped another 0.5% from February, the same as the prior month’s decline, suggesting that theFebruary 28 rate cut hasn’t done much to boost housing spirits.
However, it is the annual data that truly stands out, because with a drop of 6.1% this was the biggest drop in Chinese house prices in history.
To be sure, the PBOC is now scrambling to halt what, unless it is stopped, will become a full-blown hard landing in months, if it isn’t already. As a result, as shown in the chart below it has recently engaged in several easing steps, with many more to come according to the sell-side consensus. So far these have failed to stimulate the overall economy, which continues to be pressured by a deflation-importing world, but have certainly lead to a massive surge in the Chinese stock market.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why The Mania Is Getting Scary—-Central Bankers Are Running A Doomsday Machine
Why The Mania Is Getting Scary—-Central Bankers Are Running A Doomsday Machine
If you need evidence that we are in the midst of a lunatic financial mania, just consider this summary from a Marketwatch commentator as to why markets are ripping higher this morning:
“The dovish comments from both Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan are giving markets a big lift, and in the absence of negative data or news, I imagine this will continue to buoy the markets throughout the session,” Erlam said in emailed comments.
Yellen said gradual hikes are likely this year, but that the central bank will movecautiously……. the PBOC governor said he saw “more room” for China to ease policy if the economy stays soft and inflation continues to weaken.
Its just that frightfully simple. If any of the major central banks anywhere on the planet ease or even hint they might, the robo machines and day traders unleash an avalanche of buy orders and the stock averages jerk higher.
Indeed, Zero Hedge captured the motion succinctly this AM. In keeping with Bernanke’s inaugural blog revelation that 98% of monetary policy consists of “open mouth” operations, the markets leapt upwards on cue. That is, if central banker jaws are flapping, then buy!
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Switches to Supporting Yuan as Outflows Mount: Currencies
China Switches to Supporting Yuan as Outflows Mount: Currencies
Managing the yuan is turning into a different game for China’s policy makers these days.
After more than a decade of curbing the currency’s gains to help turn the nation into a manufacturing colossus, there are signs the People’s Bank of China is now propping up the yuan to stem an exodus of capital that’s threatening the economy.
A gauge of capital flows on the PBOC’s balance sheet fell by the most since 2003 last month in a sign it’s selling foreign currency, while the yuan’s reference rate set daily by policy makers is at itsstrongest-ever level compared with the market price.
“Everyone thought the movie would never end, and suddenly it ended, so everyone is hurrying to leave,” Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said by phone on Jan. 22. “The authorities need to think of a way to keep the audience in the theater” as the economy slows, he said.
China amassed a world-leading $4 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves by mid-2014 as exports surged and capital flowed in, attracted by a currency that strengthened for four consecutive years. Now that the yuan’s gains are faltering, the PBOC is trying to prevent its declines from turning into a rout that could deter investment just as the economy suffers its slowest growth in 24 years.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
