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Tag Archives: emerging markets
The Curious Case of Missing Defaults
THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE MISSING DEFAULTS CAMBRIDGE – Booms and busts in international capital flows and commodity prices, as well as the vagaries of international interest rates, have long been associated with economic crises, especially – but not exclusively – in emerging markets. The “type” of crisis varies by time and place. Sometimes the […]
Why One Trader Thinks The Turkish Crash Will Lead To EM Contagion
Why One Trader Thinks The Turkish Crash Will Lead To EM Contagion Yesterday when we discussed the dramatic crash in the Turkish lira, resulting from the visa suspension drama at both Turkish and US consulates, we noted that “this is the currency’s seventh consecutive decline, after dropping on Friday amid concern Fed tightening would hurt […]
In Emerging Markets, It’s Time To Dump Most Central Banks, And Their Currencies Too
In Emerging Markets, It’s Time To Dump Most Central Banks, And Their Currencies Too On March 16th, the New York Times carried reportage by Peter S. Goodman, Keith Bradsher and Neil Gough, which was titled “The Fed Acts. Workers in Mexico and Merchants in Malaysia Suffer.” The theme of their extensive reportage is that U.S. […]
“Are We Prepared to Impose Temporary Debt Standstills?”
“Are We Prepared to Impose Temporary Debt Standstills?” In a remarkable turnaround, foreign investors are estimated to have pumped over $35 billion into emerging market (EM) stocks and bonds in March, the highest monthly inflow in nearly two years, according to the Institute of International Finance. One of the biggest beneficiaries is Latin America, which […]
“Time To Panic”? Nigeria Begs World Bank For Massive Loan As Dollar Reserves Dry Up
“Time To Panic”? Nigeria Begs World Bank For Massive Loan As Dollar Reserves Dry Up Having urged “don’t panic” just 4 short months ago, it appears Nigeria just did just that as the global dollar short squeeze forces the eight-month-old government of President Muhammadu Buhari to beg The World Bank and African Development Bank for $3.5bn in […]
Bear Necessities
BEAR NECESSITIES “At first sign of crisis, the ignorant don’t panic because they don’t know what’s going on. Then later they panic precisely because they don’t know what’s going on.” – Jarod Kintz. In a crisis, it helps to have good counsel. Investment strategist Mike Tyson is pretty good at summing up the problem: “Everyone […]
Soon Comes The Deluge
Soon Comes The Deluge The robo-machines are now having a grand old time hazing the August lows at 1870 on the S&P, and may succeed in ginning up another dead-cat bounce or two. But this market is going down for the count owing to a perfect storm. To wit, the global and US economies are heading […]
Emerging Market Meltdown Sinks Spain’s Biggest Companies
Emerging Market Meltdown Sinks Spain’s Biggest Companies A Lethal Cocktail After years of uninterrupted domination, the old guard at Spain’s Ibex 35 stock index – two mega-banks Banco Santander and BBVA, oil giant Repsol, telecommunications behemoth Telefonica, and utility Iberdrola – is beginning to lose it. Today the big-five’s combined capitalization represents 45% of the ibex 35’s total capitalization. This may […]
A Year of Sovereign Defaults?
A Year of Sovereign Defaults? MIAMI – When it comes to sovereign debt, the term “default” is often misunderstood. It almost never entails the complete and permanent repudiation of the entire stock of debt; indeed, even some Czarist-era Russian bonds were eventually (if only partly) repaid after the 1917 revolution. Rather, non-payment – a “default,” […]
The Fed’s Risk to Emerging Economies
The Fed’s Risk to Emerging Economies MILAN – The US Federal Reserve has finally, after almost a decade of steadfast adherence to very low interest rates, hiked its federal funds rate – the rate from which all other interest rates in the economy take their cue – by 25 basis points. That brings the new rate up […]
The Precipice
The Precipice Global markets have found themselves again at the precipice. My sense is that everyone’s numb – literally dazed and confused from prolonged Monetary Disorder and the resulting perverted market backdrop. Repeatedly, “The Precipice” has signaled easy-money buying and trading opportunities. Again and again, selling, shorting and hedging at “The Precipice” guaranteed you were […]
What Deflation Quacks Like
What Deflation Quacks Like As yet another day of headlines shows, see the links and details in today’s Debt Rattle at the Automatic Earth, deflation is visible everywhere, from a 98% drop in EM debt issuance to junk bonds reporting the first loss since 2008 to corporate bonds downgrades to plummeting cattle prices in Kansas to […]
The U.S. Dollar Has Already Caused A Global Recession And Now The Fed Is Going To Make It Worse
The U.S. Dollar Has Already Caused A Global Recession And Now The Fed Is Going To Make It Worse The 7th largest economy on the entire planet, Brazil, has been gripped by a horrifying recession, as has much of the rest of South America. But it isn’t just South America that is experiencing a very […]
USA Losing Sovereignty to World Fiscal Mismanagement
USA Losing Sovereignty to World Fiscal Mismanagement The IMF and many economists (domestic and foreign) are now warning that a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, no matter when, will spark a major economic crisis in the emerging markets. They see this crisis being ripe for countries with high budget deficits, such as Turkey, […]
The Last 30 Years of Global Economic History Are About to Go Out the Window
The Last 30 Years of Global Economic History Are About to Go Out the Window Over the last 30 years, a near constant flow of cash has inundated China and other emerging markets. It has lifted those economies, pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and dictated corporate expansion plans worldwide. That wave […]
