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On Saturday, Iran marked what President Hassan Rouhani called a “golden page” in the country’s history when the IAEA ruled that Tehran had stuck to its commitments under last year’s nuclear accord.

Moments after the ruling was handed down, the US and the EU each lifted nuclear-related financial and economic sanctions on the “pariah state,” much to the chagrin of Israel and Tehran’s regional rivals who view the West’s rapprochement with the Iranians with deep suspicion.

“Everybody is happy except the Zionists, the warmongers who are fuelling sectarian war among the Islamic nation, and the hardliners in the U.S. congress,” Rouhani said, referring directly to Israel, the Saudis, and GOP lawmakers in the US.

In addition to the never-ending feud with the Israelis, Tehran is embroiled in a worsening conflict with Riyadh triggered by Saudi Arabia’s execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr and subsequent attacks on the Saudi embassy and consulate in Iran. The argument has raised the specter of an all-out conflict between the Sunni and Shiite powers and stoked sectarian discord across the region.

With sanctions lifted, Iran will now have access to some $100 billion in frozen funds and will be able to increase its oil revenue exponentially even as prices remain suppressed.

It’s easy to see why the Saudis and other Gulf Sunni monarchies are nervous. Iran plans to immediately boost output by 500,000 b/d with an additional 500,000 b/d coming online by year end. “The oil ministry, by ordering companies to boost production and oil terminals to be ready, kicked off today the plan to increase Iran’s crude exports by 500,000 barrels,” the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported on Sunday, citing Amir Hossein Zamaninia, deputy oil minister for commerce and international affairs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Hard Landing To Trigger Meltdown In India: “We Will See Another Crisis”

January 11, 2016

China’s Hard Landing To Trigger Meltdown In India: “We Will See Another Crisis”

In late September, India “surprised” 51 out of 52 economists by cutting rates a larger than expected 50 bps.

Despite RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s penchant for catching markets off guard and despite the fact that exports had fallen for eight consecutive months, economists still failed to predict that anything more than 25 bps was in the cards.

“The weakness in India’s exports is striking, not only in terms of past trend, but also from a cross country perspective,” Deutsche Bank wrote at the time. “Indeed, India’s exports performance has been the weakest in the region in 2015.”

In short: in a world gone Keynesian crazy, you live and die by your willingness to engage in competitive easing and with China having just a month earlier moved to devalue the yuan, India had little choice but to cut lest the export picture should darken further.

Since then the malaise has deepened.

Exports have now fallen for 12 straight months and although some of the decline is probably attributable to slumping prices (as opposed to lower volumes), it’s worrisome nevertheless.

“India’s external trade likely fell for second consecutive year in FY16E, with both exports and imports contracting by 18.5%YoY and 17.2%YoY in the period Apr-Nov’15,” Citi notes, adding that “the meltdown in India’s exports and imports was even sharper than the global tradewhich contracted by 12- 13%YoY.”

On Friday, in the wake of China’s continued devaluation of the yuan, Indian Trade Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expressed concern about the effect a sharply weaker RMB will have on her country’s trade deficit with Beijing. “It’s worrying,” she said. “My deficit with China will widen.”

India is now looking at ways to prevent a flood of cheap imports from hitting domestic producers. “India steel companies such as JSW Ltd have asked the government to set a minimum import price to stop cheap imports undercutting them,” Reuters writes. “A similar measure was adopted in 1999.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Catalonia Needs Its Own Central Bank”: Spain’s Black Swan Lives As New Catalan President Sworn In

January 10, 2016

“Catalonia Needs Its Own Central Bank”: Spain’s Black Swan Lives As New Catalan President Sworn In

When last we checked in on Catalonia, Spain’s black swan was splashing around in a desperate attempt to avoid snap elections just three months after the region’s parliament approved a “democratic disconnection” resolution and just four months after Catalans voted in what amounted to a referendum on secession from Spain.

The problem was that although Junts pel Si and the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) parties won a majority of the seats in parliament, and although both parties back a split from Spain, the two groups were unable to agree on who should lead the government. The choice was between then-President Artur Mas (Junts pel Si’s leader) or someone else.

Once CUP made it clear that they would not back Mas for President, the prospect of new elections reared its ugly head and the countdown was on to January 11 – the deadline for forming a government. “Lacking a majority in the 135-seat parliament, Mas had been reliant on the support of the pro-secession, far-left CUP group, which has 10 seats.” WaPo wrote in November. “But the CUP has refused to back Mas as regional president, because of his austerity policies of recent years and his party’s links to corruption scandals.”

When national elections held in December proved largely inconclusive, the stage was set for new elections both in Catalonia and for the country as a whole. Because the various parties vying for seats in the national parliament are divided on the Catalan independence bid, politics in Madrid are inextricably bound up with politics in Barcelona, creating an extraordinarily complex dynamic that admitted of no obvious solution.

Well, with the clock ticking, Catalonia resolved its stalemate on Saturday when Artur Mas agreed to stand aside so that Carles Puigdemont can assume the presidency.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fed Vice Chair Explains Why The Fed Is Still Obsessing With Negative Interest Rates

January 3, 2016

Fed Vice Chair Explains Why The Fed Is Still Obsessing With Negative Interest Rates

Two months ago, and roughly 6 weeks before the Fed’s first rate hike in 9 years, Janet Yellen warned that if the “outlook worsened, the fed might weight negative rates” adding that “negative rates could help encourage banks to lend.”

Moments ago, in a speech titled “Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound” delivered before the American Economic Association in San Francisco, the Fed’s second in command, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer while discussing the equilibrium real interest rate, or r* (or the real interest rate at which the economy would settle at full employment and with inflation at 2 percent, provided the economy is not at the ZLB), unexpectedly hinted once again at the potential advent of negative rates in the US, two weeks after the Fed’s raised the interest rate to a 25-50 bps corridor except of course for December 31 when as we noted, the Fed Funds dropped to 0.12%, suggesting that banks are perfectly ok with hiking rates… except when it comes to quarter and year-end window dressing for regulatory, compliance and public filing purposes.

Specifically, Fischer discussed what steps, if any, can be taken to mitigate the constraints associated with the ZLB? His second answer: NIRP. To wit:

Another possible step would be to reduce short-term interest rates below zero if needed to provide additional accommodation. Our colleagues in Europe are busy rewriting economics textbooks on this topic as we speak-and also helping us to remember earlier discussions of negative interest rates by Keynes, Irving Fisher, Hicks, and Gesell.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Secret Do Global Banks Know about Chinese Banks?

December 30, 2015

What Secret Do Global Banks Know about Chinese Banks?

They’re dumping their stakes.

“Now is the right time for us to sell this investment,” announced Deutsche Bank’s newish co-CEO John Cryan on Monday after the long Christmas weekend when no one was supposed to pay attention.

It was how Cryan justified the deal to sell Deutsche’s entire 19.99% stake in Hua Xia Bank in China to Chinese insurer PICC Property and Casualty. He couched the deal in terms of executing Deutsche’s “strategic agenda”: boosting capital ratios to prop up the balance sheet.

Deutsche isn’t the first Western bank to bail out of banks in China where regulators limit foreign ownership stakes to a maximum of 20%, which brings some complications.

Goldman Sachs sold its stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in 2013. Bank of America Merrill Lynch bailed out of its stake in China Construction Bank in a series of deals. BBVA, Spain’s second largest bank, has been cutting its stake in China Citic Bank from about 15% in 2013 down to 4.7% now, and that remainder appears to be earmarked for sale as well. Other banks are also likely to pick up their marbles and go, such as Standard Chartered, with its stake in Agricultural Bank of China.

Like Deutsche, they couched those deals in terms of boosting capital ratios and balance sheets.

And Deutsche could use some balance sheet repair. One of the largest and most leveraged global banks, it has been tangled up for years in a long list of scandals, court cases, and multi-billion-dollar settlements. Recently it suspended senior staff in Russia after suspecting they’d assisted in laundering money for sanctioned buddies of President Vladimir Putin. We were all shocked.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudis Boost Gas Prices by 40%, Dismantle Welfare State To Wage War With U.S. Shale

December 28, 2015

Saudis Boost Gas Prices by 40%, Dismantle Welfare State To Wage War With U.S. Shale

Earlier today, we parsed Saudi Arabia’s budget report in order to determine if the kingdom’s fiscal nightmare was better or worse than market expectations.

As it turns out, it was better. This year’s deficit is expected to come in at around 15-16% of GDP, considerably below the 20% some analysts feared. For 2016, it looks as though the number should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 13%, broadly in line with expectations.

Be that as it may, the Saudis are boxed in as long as they insist on, i) keeping oil prices depressed, ii) maintaining the riyal peg, and iii) holding subsidies steady. If something doesn’t give with at least one of those imperatives, then the kingdom will continue to burn through its SAMA reserves which fell by $12.55 billion in November from October.

The problem is that deviating from any of the points outlined above has consequences. Allowing oil prices to rise risks putting uneconomic US production back online, dropping the riyal peg would be a significant black swan event for markets and would represent a landmark break with three decades of precedent, and easing up on the subsidies risks creating the type of social unrest that occurred elsewhere in the region during the Arab Spring.

Well it looks like when it came time to choose, the Saudis decided that the people will have to suffer because today, Saudi Arabia raised the price of domestic fuel by up to 40%.

And that’s not all.

Prices for gas, diesel, kerosene, water and electricity were also raised.

Indeed, some Saudis were looking to fill up before the price hike:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s Just Not Saudi Arabia’s Year: First Oil Prices, Now This…

November 4, 2015

It’s Just Not Saudi Arabia’s Year: First Oil Prices, Now This…

Last week, in the latest sign of Saudi Arabia’s deteriorating financial condition, S&P downgraded the kingdom to AA- negative citing “lower for longer” crude and the attendant ballooning fiscal deficit.

To be sure, we’ve covered the story extensively and it was almost exactly one year ago that we flagged the quiet death of the petrodollar and explained the significance to a market that hadn’t yet woken up to just what it means when, thanks to plunging crude prices, producing nations cease to be net exporters of capital.

With more than $650 billion in SAMA reserves, Riyadh does have a sizeable cushion. However, there are a number of factors (in addition to low oil prices) that are weighing heavily including, i) financing the war in Yemen, ii) maintaining the lifestyle of everyday Saudis, and iii) preserving the riyal peg. Here’s a look at the breakdown of government expenditures:

When you mix heavy outlays with declining revenue, it means dipping into the warchest…

Here’s a bit of color from Deutsche Bank which helps to explain what we mean by “the cost of preserving the societal status quo”:

The largest energy subsidy beneficiary is the end-consumer in the form of fuel (petrol) subsidies. Bringing up the price of petrol to levels in the UAE, which earlier this year eliminated the petrol subsidy, could provide the government with USD27bn incremental revenues, or 20% of the budget deficit. However, this is a highly unlikely scenario given the demographic differential between KSA and UAE and the socio-economic impact that such an outcome (blended prices rising from USD0.11/l to USD0.5/l) could have within the country.

The Saudi government could look to increase electricity tariffs. This would be a challenge for residential consumption (51% of aggregate consumption) given the political/social impact, though it would present the highest incremental revenue benefit.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Europe Is About To Plunge Further Into The NIRP Twilight Zone, And What It Means For Depositors

October 22, 2015

Why Europe Is About To Plunge Further Into The NIRP Twilight Zone, And What It Means For Depositors

In some respects, today’s ECB presser was a snoozer. Reporters asked the same old questions (some of which we’ve been asking for years) and, more importantly, there were no glitter attacks.

Our ears did perk up however, when Mario Draghi admitted that, unlike the governing council’s last meeting, cutting the depo rate further into negative territory was indeed discussed.

This is significant for a number of reasons. At the general level, it shows that DM central bankers are ready and willing to plunge the world further into the Keynesian Twilight Zone. As we outlined last month, this means the Riksbank and the SNB are now on watch. If the ECB cuts again, the Riksbank will be forced to act as well and as Barclays recently opined, the SNB may be compelled to go nuclear on depositors, as removing the negative rate exemption for domestic banks would force them to pass along the “cost” to customers:

“In contrast, a cut in the ECB’s deposit rate further into negative territory likely would have a significant impact on the EURCHF exchange rate and provoke a more immediate response from the SNB. Indeed, we expect that a cut in the ECB’s deposit rate may have a greater effect on EURCHF than on other EUR crosses. Switzerland applies its negative deposit rate to only a fraction of reserves, currently about 1/3rd of sight deposits by our calculation. In contrast, negative deposit rates apply to all reserves held at the ECB, Riksbank and Denmark’s Nationalbank. Consequently, a cut to the ECB’s deposit rate likely has a larger impact both on the economy and on the exchange rate than a proportionate cut by the SNB. An SNB response to an ECB deposit rate cut could take one of two forms:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Endgame Takes Shape: “Banning Capitalism And Bypassing Capital Markets”

October 11, 2015

The Endgame Takes Shape: “Banning Capitalism And Bypassing Capital Markets”

One month ago we presented to readers that in the first official “serious” mention of “Helicopter Money” as the next (and final) form of monetary stimulus, Australia’s Macquarie Bank said that there is now about 12-18 months before this “unorthodox” policy is implemented. We also predicted that now that the seal has been broken, other banks would quickly jump on board with an idea that is the only possible endgame to 8 years of monetary lunacy, and sure enough, both Citigroup and Deutsche Bank within days brought up the Fed’s monetary paradrop as the up and coming form of monetary policy.

So while the rest of the street is undergoing revulsion therapy, as it cracks its “the Fed will hike rates any minute” cognitive dissonance and is finally asking, as Morgan Stanley did last week, whether the Fed will first do QE4 or NIRP (something we have said since January), here is what is really coming down the line, with the heretic thought experiment of the endgame once again coming from an unexpected, if increasingly credibly source, Australia’s Macquarie bank.

* * *

Would more QE make a difference? Have to move to different types of QE or allow nature to take its course

It seems that over the last week investor consensus swung from expecting Fed tightening and some form of normalization of monetary policy to delaying expectation of any tightening until 2016 and possibly beyond whilst discussion of a possibility of QE4 has gone mainstream.

Although “QE forever” and no tightening has been our base case for at least the last 12-18 months, we also tend to emphasize the diminishing impact of conventional QE policies. As the latest Fed paper (San Francisco) highlighted, “There is no work, to my knowledge, that establishes a link from QE to the ultimate goals of the Fed-inflation and real economic activity. Indeed, casual evidence suggests that QE has been ineffective in increasing inflation”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank

October 2, 2015

This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank

DB’s Jim Reid lays out the “endgame” scenario, one which this website first said is inevitable back in 2009. With Citi and Macquarie already on board, expect what was once merely the figment of a “deranged tinfoil conspiracy-theory blog’s” imagination, to become global monetary policy. And yes, the real endgame is the one we have said from day one: total fiat (and conventional economics) collapse.

* * *

From Deutsche Bank’s chief credit strateigst

Our thesis over the last few years has basically been that the global financial system/economic fundamentals are so bad that its good for financial assets given it forces central banks into extraordinary stimulus and for them to continue to buy assets in never before seen volumes. The system failed in 2008/09 and rather than allow a proper creative destruction cleansing, policy makers have been aggressively propping it up ever since. This has surely led to a large level of inefficiency in the system which helps explain weak post crisis growth and thus forces them to do even more thus supporting asset prices if not the global economy.

However since the summer this theory has been severely tested by China’s equity bubble bursting, China’s small ‘shock’ devaluation and the start of a rundown in reserves for the first time in over a decade. We’ve also seen associated commodities and EM woes, endless unsettling speculation about the Fed’s next move and more recently the idiosyncratic corporate scandal around VW and funding concerns around Glencore. The hits keep on coming. Is it now so bad it’s actually bad again?

The most recent leg of the sell-off begun after the Fed held rates steady two weeks ago as the narrative focused on either this reflecting worrying economic concerns or a Fed that is a slave to financial markets and losing credibility. So do we think we’re now entering a period where central banks are increasingly impotent?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India “Surprises” 51 Out Of 52 “Experts”, Slashes Rates More Than Expected As Easing Bonanza Continues

September 29, 2015

India “Surprises” 51 Out Of 52 “Experts”, Slashes Rates More Than Expected As Easing Bonanza Continues

Late last month, we asked how long it would be before the RBI hit back in the wake of China’s yuan deval.

The Indian government’s chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian had just told ET Now television that India may need to “respond” to China’s monetary policy stance, and also hinted at further export weakness. It wasn’t hard to read between the lines: more shots were about to the be fired in the ongoing global currency wars.

Reinforcing that contention was the following from Deutsche Bank:

India’s export sector continues to be under pressure, with merchandise exports contracting yet again in July by 10.3%yoy. The weakness in India’s exports is striking (this is the eighth consecutive month of decline), not only in terms of past trend, but also from a cross country perspective. Indeed, India’s exports performance has been the weakest in the region thus far in 2015. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year (April-June’15), Indian exports have contracted by 17%yoy, one of the sharpest declines on record. The main reason for such a weak Indian export performance can be attributed to the sharp decline in oil exports (down 51%yoy between April-June’15), which constitute 18% of total exports.

Another factor that could likely explain the weak performance of exports is the probable overvaluation of the rupee. As per RBI’s 36-country trade based real effective exchange rate, rupee remains overvalued at this juncture and this could be impacting exports to some extent, in our view.

Currency competitiveness is an important factor in influencing exports performance, but global demand is even more important, in our view, to support exports momentum. As can be seen from the chart [below], global demand remains soft at this stage which continues to be a key hurdle for exports momentum to gain traction.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Glencore The Next Lehman? The World’s Largest Commodities Trading Company Is Toast

September 29, 2015

Is Glencore The Next Lehman? The World’s Largest Commodities Trading Company Is Toast

Are we about to witness the most important global financial event since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008? Glencore has been known as the largest commodities trading company on the entire planet, and at one time it was ranked as the 10th biggest company in the world. It is linked to trillions of dollars of derivatives trades globally, and if the firm were to implode it would be a financial disaster unlike anything that we have seen in Europe since the end of World War II. Unfortunately, all signs are pointing to an inescapable death spiral for Glencore at this point. The stock price was down nearly 30 percent on Monday, and overall Glencore stock has plunged nearly 80 percent since May. There are certainly other candidates for “the next Lehman” (Petrobras and Deutsche Bank being two perfect examples), but Glencore has definitely surged to the front of the pack. Right now many analysts are openly wondering if the firm will even be able to survive to the end of next month.

If you are not familiar with Glencore, the following is a pretty good summary of the commodity trading giant from Wikipedia…

Glencore plc is an Anglo–Swiss multinational commodity trading and mining company headquartered in Baar, Switzerland, with its registered office in Saint Helier, Jersey. The company was created through a merger of Glencore with Xstrata on 2 May 2013. As of 2014, it ranked tenth in the Fortune Global 500 list of the world’s largest companies. It is the world’s third-largest family business.

As Glencore International, the company was already one of the world’s leading integrated producers and marketers of commodities. It was the largest company in Switzerland and the world’s largest commodities trading company, with a 2010 global market share of 60 percent in the internationally tradeable zinc market, 50 percent in the internationally tradeable copper market, 9 percent in the internationally tradeable grain market and 3 percent in the internationally tradeable oil market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UBS Is About To Blow The Cover On A Massive Gold-Rigging Scandal

September 28, 2015

UBS Is About To Blow The Cover On A Massive Gold-Rigging Scandal

With countless settlements documenting the rigging of every single asset class, it was only a matter of time before the regulators – some 10 years behind the curve as usual – finally cracked down on gold manipulation as well, even though as we have shown in the past, central banks in general and the Fed in particular are among the biggest gold manipulators.

That said, we are confident by now nobody will be surprised that there was manipulation going on in the gold casino. In fact, ever since Germany’s Bafin launched a probe into Deutsche Bank for gold and silver manipulation, it has been very clear that the only question is how many banks will end up paying billions to settle the rigging of the gold market (with nobody going to prison as usual, of course).

Earlier today, we learned that the Swiss competition watchdog just became the latest to enjoin the ongoing gold manipulation probe when as Reuters reported, it launched an investigation into possible collusion in the precious metals market by several major banks, it said on Monday, the latest in a string of probes into gold, silver, platinum and palladium pricing.

Here are the details that should come as a surprise to nobody:

Global precious metals trading has been under regulatory scrutiny since December 2013, when German banking regulator Bafin demanded documents from Deutsche Bank under an inquiry into suspected manipulation of gold and silver benchmarks by banks. Even though the market has moved to reform the process of deciding on its price benchmarks, accusations of manipulation have refused to go away.

Switzerland’s WEKO said its investigation, the result of a preliminary probe, was looking at whether UBS, Julius Baer, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Mitsui conspired to set bid/ask spreads.

“It (WEKO) has indications that possible prohibited competitive agreements in the trading of precious metals were agreed among the banks mentioned,” WEKO said in a statement.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

There Are Indications That A Major Financial Event In Germany Could Be Imminent

September 22, 2015

There Are Indications That A Major Financial Event In Germany Could Be Imminent

Is something about to happen in Germany that will shake the entire world? According to disturbing new intel that I have received, a major financial event in Germany could be imminent. Now when I say imminent, I do not mean to suggest that it will happen tomorrow. But I do believe that we have entered a season of time when another “Lehman Brothers moment” may occur. Most observers tend to regard Germany as the strong hub that is holding the rest of Europe together economically, but the truth is that serious trouble is brewing under the surface. As I write this, the German DAX stock index is down close to 20 percent from the all-time high that was set back in April, and there are lots of signs of turmoil at Germany’s largest bank. There are very few banks in the world that are more prestigious or more influential than Deutsche Bank, and it has been making headlines for all of the wrong reasons recently.

Just like we saw with Lehman Brothers, banks that are “too big to fail” don’t suddenly collapse overnight. The truth is that there are always warning signs in advance if you look closely enough.

In early 2014, shares of Deutsche Bank were trading above 50 dollars a share. Since that time, they have fallen by more than 40 percent, and they are now trading below 29 dollars a share.

It is common knowledge that the corporate culture at Deutsche Bank is deeply corrupt, and the bank has been exceedingly reckless in recent years.

If you are exceedingly reckless and you win all the time, that is okay. Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank, they have increasingly been on the losing end of things.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Numbers Are In: China Dumps A Record $94 Billion In US Treasurys In One Month

September 7, 2015

The Numbers Are In: China Dumps A Record $94 Billion In US Treasurys In One Month

Shortly after the PBoC’s move to devalue the yuan, we noted with some alarm that it looked as though China may have drawn down its reserves by more than $100 billion in the space of just two weeks. That, we went on the point out, would represent a stunning increase over the previous pace of the country’s reserve draw down, which we’ve began documenting months ahead of the devaluation (see here, for instance). We went on to estimate, based on the estimated size of the RMB carry trade unwind, how large the FX reserve liquidation might need to be to offset capital outflows and finally, late last week, we suggested that China’s official FX reserve data was set to become the new risk-on/off trigger for nervous, erratic markets. In short, the pace at which Beijing is burning through its USD assets in defense of the yuan has serious implications not only for investors’ collective perception of market stability, but for yields on core paper, for global liquidity, and for US monetary policy.

On Monday we got the official data from China and sure enough, we find out that the PBoC liquidated around $94 billion in reserves during the month of August and as Goldman argues (see below), the “real” figure might have been closer to $115 billion. Whatever the case, it’s a staggering burn rate and needless to say, were the PBoC to continue to liquidate its assets at this pace, it would necessitate a raft of RRR cuts and hundreds of billions in short-term liquidity ops to ensure that money market don’t seize up in the face of the liquidity drain.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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