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On verge of recession, campaign might steamroll stimulus.

The first day of September will be a critical one for Canada, say economists.

That’s the day new economic data will determine whether or not Canada’s economy shrunk two quarters in a row. A second downturn will put the country in an official recession with fewer than two months until a federal election.

Canada’s gross domestic product fell one per cent in the first quarter of 2015 and signs show it could shrink another 0.6 per cent for the second quarter, with TD Bank blamingfalling oil prices.

Mowat Centre economist Mike Moffatt said economic turmoil in China isn’t helping, as Canada’s economy relies so heavily on commodity prices.

“This is not a good thing for the Canadian economy,” Moffatt said. “There’s a distinct possibility we’ll have three quarters of negative growth — something outside of the 2008 recession we haven’t seen in quite some time.”

Wednesday the Shanghai Composite closed having lost 5.9 per cent after plummeting 8.2 per cent when it first opened. China’s government-owned Securities Timesreported 700 companies asked to suspend trading of their shares in an attempt to dodge the market turmoil.

Fixed election drag?

According to Moffatt, Canada’s fixed election date of Oct. 19 will make responding to the downturn nearly impossible, as government will be dissolved during the six-week campaign period.

The Harper government passed legislation in 2007 mandating an October election every four years, but the law is not binding. Canada’s constitution still fixes a maximum term at five years.

Under Canada’s former election rules, Moffatt said he expects government would likely not hold an election and instead look to stimulate the economy. “I think this is showing one of the problems with fixed election dates,” he said. Prime Minister Stephen Harper could choose to ignore the fixed election date, but would pay a political cost.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Greece Crisis Could Drag Oil Prices Down

June 30, 2015

How Greece Crisis Could Drag Oil Prices Down

The Greek tragedy is reaching its climax.

The discussions between Greece and its European creditors broke down over the weekend, with the two sides still at an impasse. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras balked at deeper austerity cuts to the Greek economy, cuts that are a prerequisite for further help from Berlin and Brussels.

As a result, Greece is approaching the precipice. With a massive debt payment due on June 30 to the IMF, Greece could default. The extent of the fallout is anybody’s guess, but Greece could see the value of its bonds plummet, putting its banks in crisis, and ultimately the country could be ejected from the Eurozone. The Greek government declared a bank holiday for six days in order to stop the cash exodus from the Greek financial system.

The crisis is dragging down global equity and commodity markets. Greece is not a major oil producer or consumer, so it won’t have much sway over oil markets directly. But the spillover could have two immediate effects on oil apart from supply and demand fundamentals.

First, the calamity is spooking investors who fear a broader contagion. While Europe has had several years to insulate itself from Greece’s problems, the mess is still weighing on the bloc’s economic prospects. That will likely pull down oil prices a bit.

A second effect comes in the form of currency fluctuations. Greece’s calamity, and the rising prospect that it leaves the Eurozone, will damage the value of the euro. As the euro takes a hit, the U.S. dollar looks better by comparison, both as a safe haven and as an investment vehicle. If the dollar appreciates, that will push down oil – since oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes it more expensive.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Jim Rogers: Turmoil Is Coming

June 21, 2015

Jim Rogers: Turmoil Is Coming

Predictions on the markets, gold, Greece & more

Two years since his last interview with us, investor Jim Rogers returns and notes that the risks he warned of last time have only gotten worse. In this week’s podcast, Jim shares his rational for predicting:

increased wealth confiscation by the central planners
a pending major financial market collapse
gold’s return as the preferred safe haven investment
more oil price weakness, followed by a trend reversal
Russia’s rebound
a China bubble reckoning
agriculture’s long-term value

I suspect in the next year or two we will see some kind of major, major problems in the world financial markets.

I would suspect when we have this correction, it’s going to cause central banks to panic. There’s going to come a time when there is not much the central banks can do when they have lost all credibility. When governments have lost all credibility. They will print and spend and borrow, but there comes a time when people are just going to say We don’t want to play this game anymore. And at that point, the world has serious, serious problems because there’s nothing to rescue us.

I suspect the next economic/financial collapse will be the one they can’t deal with. But, if somehow they are miracle workers, be very, very careful. I would be worried about 2022 – 2023 then. The game will definitely be up if it’s not up this time around.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Bit Of Perspective On Gasoline Prices

June 13, 2015

A Bit Of Perspective On Gasoline Prices

To me, commodity pricing today is so distorted that it is almost startling. The media continues its post Goldman Sachs’ bearish calls to pound away on OPEC supply with little attention paid to rising demand. Admittedly, as we end the summer driving season, such demand will wane, adding pressure for supplies to draw down as we head into the fall. Even the EIA seems to think this trend will likely begin in July.

The focus this week in the media is Saudi supply, as it negotiates with India for more supply without mentioning a reason: demand is up. This, even after reiteration upon reiteration from the Saudis that demand is exceeding expectations. Even the EIA has finally admitted it, although as expected, they upped their U.S. supply estimates to over 700,000 barrels per day in 2015 to offset the euphoria. I have my doubts on this call of higher supply as I’ve written before.

I have emphasized the point of waning supply, tied to depletion, for months now, which, like demand has gone unspoken in the media with the overriding narrative focused on efficiency gains or well productivity instead. The bias is very clear at this point and so is the media agenda.

In the near term, shorting in highly leveraged names ahead of the fall credit redetermination has caused equities to decouple from oil prices. Energy prices are at or near highs and even natural gas has recovered some while E&P equity prices for leveraged names are at lows. Look for a substantial pick up in M&A soon which, more than prices, will act as a catalyst on equity prices in my view.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Steen’s Chronicle: The best of times, the worst of times

May 23, 2015

Steen’s Chronicle: The best of times, the worst of times

Significant changes to our JABA model’s long-term outlook
Inopportune rise in gold and energy prices expected
Commodities will outperform and yields will add another 100 bps
Europe will suffer downturn and the US will flirt with recession in 2016

Gold is one of those items that should outperform over the longer term. Photo: iStock

Saxo Bank’s JABA model rarely makes significant changes to its long-term outlook, but this quarter is different. Not only do we expect a steep increase in yields but higher gold and energy prices too.

The dynamics at work are plenty: The model’s predictions are always based on the lead-lag of different economic factors. Think of each economic data point, each market price as having its own Sinus curve. Once in a while this multitude of Sinus curves moves in the one direction and this time it’s upwards in the second half of 2015.

The biggest “news” is that we are very close to the secular low in interest rates globally. This will have material impact on stocks, fixed income and asset allocation over the coming one to five years, and probably an “upside-down” return profile relative to performance since the financial crisis started. Commodities will outperform and yields will move up by another 100 bps beforeEurope once again slides to downturn and the US flirts with recession in early 2016.

The headlines for the next 6-7 months say:

US, German and EU core government bonds will be 100 bps higher by and in Q4 before making its final new low in H1 2016. US 10-year yield will trade above 3.0% and Bunds above 1.25%
Energy: WTI crude will hit US $70-80/barrel, setting up excellent energy returns.
US dollar will weaken to EUR1.18/1.20 before retest of lows and then start multi-year weakness.
Gold will be the best performer in commodity-led rally. We see 1425/35 by year-end.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Latest Casualty In Energy’s Hardest Hit Industry

May 14, 2015

The Latest Casualty In Energy’s Hardest Hit Industry

Another coal company bites the dust. Again.

Patriot Coal, a miner of coal in several Appalachian states, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on May 12. Patriot said it is “in active negotiations for the sale of substantially all of the Company’s operating assets to a strategic partner.”

The move comes just a year and a half after the company emerged from its previous bankruptcy. At the time, some secured creditors received repayments, but shareholders bore the brunt of the restructuring.

The initial bankruptcy came as Patriot struggled with high costs during a downturn in the coal industry. But after the company came up with a restructuring plan that included a cut in labor costs and the closure of high-cost mines, Patriot thought it would rebound. But it wasn’t to be. As Taylor Kuykendall of SNL Energy notes, “Patriot was plagued by a union strike, infrastructure failures, fatal accidents and persistently weak coal markets that ultimately resulted in the company again filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.”

In one sense, the problems at Patriot Coal were unique to the company. It was originally a spin off from Peabody Energy, which unloaded healthcare liabilities onto the newfound Patriot Coal. That weighed down the company from the start, freeing Peabody from the costs. SNL’s Kuykendall chronicles a series of mishaps in 2014, from lawsuits for environmental damages to a series of safety accidents. Patriot’s CEO called it “one of the worst years in Patriot’s recent history.”

The poor performance affected output. In the first three months of this year, Patriot produced 4.1 million tons of coal, a 15.1 percent decline from the first quarter in 2014.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)

May 7, 2015

Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)

The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article called, Glut of Capital and Labor Challenge Policy Makers: Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk. To me, this is a very serious issue, quite likely signaling that we are reaching what has been called Limits to Growth, a situation modeled in 1972 in a book by that name.

What happens is that economic growth eventually runs into limits. Many people have assumed that these limits would be marked by high prices and excessive demand for goods. In my view, the issue is precisely the opposite one: Limits to growth are instead marked by low prices and inadequate demand. Common workers can no longer afford to buy the goods and services that the economy produces, because of inadequate wage growth. The price of all commodities drops, because of lower demand by workers. Furthermore, investors can no longer find investments that provide an adequate return on capital, because prices for finished goods are pulled down by the low demand of workers with inadequate wages.

Evidence Regarding the Connection Between Energy Consumption and GDP Growth

We can see the close connection between world energy consumption and world GDP using historical data.

This chart gives a clue regarding what is wrong with the economy. The slope of the line implies that adding one percentage point of growth in energy usage tends to add less and less GDP growth over time, as I have shown in Figure 2. This means that if we want to have, for example, a constant 4% growth in world GDP for the period 1969 to 2013, we would need to gradually increase the rate of growth in energy consumption from about 1.8% = (4.0% – 2.2%) growth in energy consumption in 1969 to 2.8% = (4.0% – 1.2%) growth in energy consumption in 2013.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australia’s Bad Bet on China

April 27, 2015

Australia’s Bad Bet on China

Wolf here: After any bubble, it’s always: “Nobody predicted the crash….” Central bankers don’t see bubbles. They’re not allowed to. At least officially, they don’t see them. And thus they can’t see the implosions coming. They can’t officially see these things because they help create them with their monetary policies.

Industry insiders and their financiers don’t see bubbles either because they get rich off them. Politicians and bureaucrats don’t see them because bubbles make them look good and bring in a lot of moolah.

But people do see the bubbles – which are huge and easy to see – and they do predict their crashes though they might not always get the timing right. Yet, they’re pushed aside and made the most unpopular folks around, and they’re expelled from the herd, and their warnings are ignored. It happens every time. And it happened during the Australian iron-ore bubble, whose spectacular crash suddenly “nobody was predicting.” Ha! Here’s Lindsay David:

By Lindsay David, Australia, author of Print: The Central Bankers Bubble, founder of LF Economics:

Late last week Bloomberg’s James Paton released an article titled, Gina Rinehart says ‘nobody was predicting the ore price crash’

Rinehart, “Australia’s richest woman” and “chairman of Hancock Prospecting,” as the article put it, is not the only mining head, politician, treasury employee, mainstream economist, or Reserve Banker “not” to predict the ore price crash. In fact, unless I am seriously mistaken, none of them saw the price crash coming. But they have indeed ignored all the warnings by those who did predict the crash in the spot price of iron ore.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australia Runs out of Luck, Now Needs a Miracle

April 16, 2015

Australia Runs out of Luck, Now Needs a Miracle

Australia, you have officially run out of luck.

While leveraged property investors in Sydney and Melbourne are desperately hunting for a senseless “net-yield” that makes the yield on a German 2-year bund look rewarding, the Australian mining sector is screaming towards what may be one of the greatest and colossal economic breakdowns in modern Western history.

As iron ore illustrates, this is not a downturn; this is a spectacular crash in the spot price of a commodity. And the sad news is, there is no new demand scenarios (unless China builds more apartments than its population) to suggest that more supply is needed to fulfil the demand of the global economy.

Australia made two bets.

The first bet was that China would willingly consume every ounce of iron ore Australian miners could dig from the ground and pay a premium.

Unfortunately, Australia has built an (incredibly sophisticated and streamlined) iron ore production operation so big that the world may never be able to consume all that it can supply. Our treasury, RBA, Miners and politicians assumed that China would forever grow. But they failed to calculate over the long-term that if China continues to consume all the iron ore dug from Australia’s underground, the world’s most populous nation would literally need to build a national subway network, literally an airport every 22 kilometres apart from each other and literally more dwellings than people.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem

March 10, 2015

The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem

For a long time, there has been a belief that the decline in oil supply will come by way of high oil prices. Demand will exceed supply. It seems to me that this view is backward–the decline in supply will come through low oil prices.

The oil glut we are experiencing now reflects a worldwide affordability crisis. Because of a lack of affordability, demand is depressed. This lack of demand keeps prices low–below the cost of production for many producers. If the affordability issue cannot be fixed, it threatens to bring down the system by discouraging investment in oil production.

This lack of affordability is affecting far more than oil products. A recent article in The Economist talks about LNG prices being depressed. LNG capacity ramped up quickly in response to high prices a few years ago. Now there is a glut of LNG capacity, and prices are far below the cost of extraction and shipping for many LNG suppliers. At least temporary contraction seems likely in this sector.

If we look at World Bank Commodity Price data, we find that between 2011 and 2014, the inflation-adjusted price of Australian coal decreased by 41%. In the same period, the inflation-adjusted price of rubber is down 58%, and of iron ore is down 59%. With those types of price drops, we can expect huge cutbacks on production of many types of goods.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Two More Harbingers Of Financial Doom That Mirror The Crisis Of 2008

February 15, 2015

Two More Harbingers Of Financial Doom That Mirror The Crisis Of 2008

The stock market continues to flirt with new record highs, but the signs that we could be on the precipice of the next major financial crisis continue to mount.

A couple of days ago, I discussed the fact that the U.S. dollar is experiencing a tremendous surge in value just like it did in the months prior to the financial crisis of 2008. And previously, I have detailed how the price of oil has collapsed, prices for industrial commodities are tanking and market behavior is becoming extremely choppy.

All of these are things that we witnessed just before the last market crash as well. It is also important to note that orders for durable goods are declining and the Baltic Dry Index has dropped to the lowest level on record. So does all of this mean that the stock market is guaranteed to crash in 2015? No, of course not. But what we are looking for are probabilities. We are looking for patterns. There are multiple warning signs that have popped up repeatedly just prior to previous financial crashes, and many of those same warning signs are now appearing once again.

One of these warning signs that I have not discussed previously is the wholesale inventories to sales ratio. When economic activity starts to slow down, inventory tends to get backed up. And that is precisely what is happening right now. In fact, as Wolf Richter recently wrote about, the wholesale inventories to sales ratio has now hit a level that we have not seen since the last recession…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Something Rotten Is Piling Up in this Economy

February 13, 2015

Something Rotten Is Piling Up in this Economy

Total US business inventories balloon to Lehman-Moment levels

“We do have more work to do in the US,” admitted John Bryant, CEO of Kellogg’s which makes Pringles, Pop Tarts, Kashi Cereal, and a million other things that consumers are increasingly reluctant or unable to buy. He was trying to explain the crummy quarterly results and the big-fat operating loss of $422 million, along with a lousy outlook that sent its stock careening down 4.5% during the rest of the day.

A peculiar side note: he also said that the “Russian business posted good results in the quarter and for the full year” – despite the ruble crash and whatever sanctions might have gotten in the way.

Then in the evening, ConAgra, with brands like Healthy Choice for consumers and something yummy they call “commercial food” for restaurants, cut its fiscal 2015 earnings guidance, citing a laundry list of problems, including the “strengthening dollar” and “a higher-than-planned mark-to-market loss from certain commodity index hedges.” But it blamed two operating issues “for the majority of the EPS cut: “a highly competitive bidding environment” and “execution shortfalls.”

After which confession time still wasn’t over: it would be “evaluating the need” for additional write-offs. What had gone well? Cost cutting – “strong SG&A efficiencies,” the statement called it. But the pandemic cost-cutting by corporate America represents wages and other companies’ sales.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Death Of The Petrodollar Was Finally Noticed

February 7, 2015

The Death Of The Petrodollar Was Finally Noticed

Three months ago, we wrote “How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed“, in which we explained in painful detail why far from the simple macroeconomic dogma which immediately prompted the macro tourists to scream that “oil prices dropping are good for US consumers“, the collapse in the price of crude is not only a disaster for oil exporting nations – one which will lead to a series of violent “Arab Springs” across the oil-producing developed world – but far more importantly, have a massive impact on capital markets as a result of the plunge in the most financialized commodity in history.

On the death of the Petrodollar we commented that unlike previously, when petrodollar recycling funneled the proceeds from oil-exports into financial markets, helping to boost asset prices and keep the cost of borrowing down, henceforth “oil producers will effectively import capital amounting to $7.6 billion.” We added that “oil exporters are now pulling liquidity out of financial markets rather than putting money in. That could result in higher borrowing costs for governments, companies, and ultimately, consumers as money becomes scarcer.”

The conclusion was simple: “net capital flows will be negative for EM, representing the first net inflow of capital (USD8bn) for the first time in eighteen years. This compares with USD60bn last year, which itself was down from USD248bn in 2012. At its peak, recycled EM petro dollars amounted to USD511bn back in 2006. The declines seen since 2006 not only reflect the changed global environment, but also the propensity of underlying exporters to begin investing the money domestically rather than save. The implications for financial markets liquidity – not to mention related downward pressure on US Treasury yields – is negative.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Commodities crash: Bad news for the world economy, but is anyone listening?

February 2, 2015

Commodities crash: Bad news for the world economy, but is anyone listening?

Reading the general run of financial headlines might lead one to believe that price declines in those commodities which are highly sensitive to economic conditions such as iron ore, copper, oil, natural gas, coal, and lumber are good on their face.

Obviously, the declines aren’t good for those who sell these commodities. But, those of us who buy these commodities in the form of cars, houses, utility bills and other products and services ought to be helping the world economy as we buy more stuff with the freed up income.

As true as that may be, these commodity price declines also signal something else: exceptional weakness in the world economy. It is no secret that economic growth in Europe has been stalled for some time and is now receding. The European Union’s confrontation with Russia over the Ukraine conflict and the resulting tit-for-tat economic sanctions levied by both sides are only worsening the economic climate.

Russia has been hit by the double whammy of oil price declines and sanctions which are probably sending the country into recession. And, now the new anti-austerity government in Greece seems to be pushing Europe headlong into another Euro crisis as worries about Greek debt default spread.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Increased U.S. Output Bolsters Oil Glut Fears Sending Prices Back Down

January 15, 2015

Increased U.S. Output Bolsters Oil Glut Fears Sending Prices Back Down

Oil resumed its decline after the biggest gain since June 2012 as U.S. crude production increased, adding to signs that the global supply glut that has pushed prices to a 5 1/2-year low will persist.

West Texas Intermediate futures dropped as much as 2.7 percent in New York. U.S. output surged to 9.19 million barrels a day last week, the fastest pace in weekly records dating back to January 1983, the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday. The Swiss National Bank gave up its minimum exchange rate against the euro, a policy that was intended to shield its economy from the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

Crude slid almost 50 percent last year, the most since the 2008 financial crisis, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted cuts to output amid the U.S. shale boom, exacerbating a surplus estimated by Kuwait at 1.8 million barrels a day.

Oil is leading this week’s slide in commodities after a decade-long bull market led companies to boost production and a stronger dollar diminished their allure to investors. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 energy, agriculture and metal products declined yesterday to the lowest level since 2002, extending a 17 percent loss last year. OPEC will release its monthly report later today.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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