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The ECB’s Quantitative Easing was a Failure–Here is What it Actually Did
THE ECB’S QUANTITATIVE EASING WAS A FAILURE — HERE IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY DID The main reason why the ECB quantitative easing program has failed is that it started from a wrong diagnosis of the eurozone’s problem. That the European problem was a demand and liquidity issue, not due to years of excess. The ECB […]
Is an Increase in Demand Key for Economic Growth?
IS AN INCREASE IN DEMAND KEY FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH? Whenever the so-called economy shows signs of weakness most experts are of the view that what is required to prevent the economy sliding into recession is to boost the overall demand for goods and services. If the private sector fails to increase its demand then it […]
Time is Money, Money is Time
TIME IS MONEY, MONEY IS TIME Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player who struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more. -Macbeth Our limited time, our brief candle as Shakespeare’s Macbeth had it earlier in the soliloquy quoted from above, may count for very little in the […]
Beyond GDP to a New Road to Serfdom
BEYOND GDP TO A NEW ROAD TO SERFDOM It is a commonplace that there is more to life than money and the material benefits that it may provide someone. We often make trade-offs between income-earning work opportunities and more time with family or friends, or between risky but well-paying employment and a calmer and less […]
The Neutral Interest Rate Myth
THE NEUTRAL INTEREST RATE MYTH In his speech to the Economic Club of New York on November 28 2018, the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US central bank’s policy interest rate is just below the neutral rate. This prompted many commentators to suggest that a tighter interest rate stance of the […]
The Imperial Presidency Embodies Political and Economic Hubris
THE IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY EMBODIES POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC HUBRIS Historian Arthur M. Schlesinger coined the term “imperial presidency” in the 1960s. It was meant to indicate that the role of the president of the United States had dramatically grown in the 20th century from being an important but fairly limited position of implementing the laws of […]
Coffee Sellers Are Not Fundamentally Different From Banks
COFFEE SELLERS ARE NOT FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT FROM BANKS With the 2007-8 financial crisis came a splendid alphabetical soup of central bank interventions to stimulate financial markets, lower interest rates, provide astonishing amounts of liquidity to banks and, allegedly, prevent another Great Depression. Likening the failure of big banks to falling elephants crushing even the smallest grass, […]
The Psychology of Systemic Consensus
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SYSTEMIC CONSENSUS We are all too familiar with established views rejecting change. It has nothing to do with the facts. Officialdom’s mind is often firmly closed to all reason on the big issues. To appreciate why we must understand the crowd psychology behind the systemic consensus. It is the distant engine that […]
How Are Chinese Stocks Responding to Tariffs With the US and a Slowdown in Asian Growth?
HOW ARE CHINESE STOCKS RESPONDING TO TARIFFS WITH THE US AND A SLOWDOWN IN ASIAN GROWTH? Despite US tariffs, China’s September trade balance with the US reached a record high A number of China’s Asian neighbours have seen a deceleration in growth The Shanghai Composite has fallen more than 50% since 2015, the PE ratio […]
Liberal Capitalism as the Ideology of Freedom and Moderation
LIBERAL CAPITALISM AS THE IDEOLOGY OF FREEDOM AND MODERATION Nowadays, many along the political spectrum seem to agree that America increasingly has become a polarized society. Ideological and public policy discourse has been gravitating more toward the extremes: progressives and the Democratic Party with a more explicitly socialist rhetoric and proposed government agenda, and conservatives […]
Risky Business
RISKY BUSINESS “In 1961, at the height of the Cold War, a B-52 bomber carrying two Mark 39 thermonuclear bombs accidentally crashed in rural North Carolina. A low technology voltage switch was the only thing that prevented a 4-megaton nuclear bomb with 250 times the yield of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima from detonating on […]
Not Waving But Drowning–Stocks, Debt and Inflation?
NOT WAVING BUT DROWNING – STOCKS, DEBT AND INFLATION? The US stock market is close to being in a corrective phase -10% off its highs Global debt has passed $63trln – well above the levels on 2007 Interest rates are still historically low, especially given the point in the economic cycle Predictions of a bear-market […]
The Credit Cycle is on the Turn
THE CREDIT CYCLE IS ON THE TURN We are on the verge of moving into an era of high interest rates, so markets will behave differently from any time since the early-1980s. There are enough similarities with the post-Bretton Woods era of the 1970s to give us some guidance as to how markets are likely […]
