Home » Posts tagged 'bruce wilds' (Page 6)
Tag Archives: bruce wilds
Starry Starry Night An Ode To Idealist – We Are doomed
Starry Starry Night An Ode To Idealist – We Are doomed
The images of protest and violence that fill viewing screens across the globe underline the fact we are not on the way to nirvana, a state of idyllic peace and happiness. In my younger days, I was a full-blown idealist full of optimistic thoughts of how if we all worked together we could create a wonderful world. It soon became apparent that many people were not interested in work or doing, “their fair share” just for the sake of adding to the overall health and well-being of the community. This is the fatal flaw in the socialist theory. Adding to the problem is the human-animal by nature, while considered a social creature, seems unable to agree on much of anything. This of course extends to how we live, goals, and even the kind of lifestyle we wish to live.
Vincent is a song by Don McLean written as a tribute to Vincent van Gogh. It is also known by its opening line, “Starry Starry Night”, a reference to Van Gogh’s 1889 painting The song, by Don McLean, in some ways, is an ode to idealists everywhere. The lyrics are a comparison to Van Gogh’s actual life.
They take us on a musical journey from Van Gogh’s vantage point looking out from the asylum at Saint-Remy. History shows Van Gogh to have been a troubled soul that lived in torment and spending time in the mental asylum where he painted mainly from his room or the courtyard garden. Later he went further afield to paint. Van Gogh attempted suicide by shooting himself in the chest, which ultimately led to his death two days later.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Inequality On Rise – Many Of 99% Dirt Poor As Rich Gain
Inequality On Rise – Many Of 99% Dirt Poor As Rich Gain
Inequality has soared over the last several months with billionaires seeing huge gains in their wealth while many people are getting slammed. Much of the adverse effect on the average American has so far been masked by trillions of dollars flowing from the government in the way of temporary stimulus checks. The covid-19 crisis and how it has been handled by the governments and the central banks have resulted in creating a twilight-zone economy. The moment the current $600 a week federal unemployment benefits run out at the end of July, many people will find they are caught in a financial vise with few options. Getting that unemployment money is the biggest reason many people who’ve lost jobs are able to keep a roof over their heads. Knowing many of these people are not going back to work is a big problem. You are not alone if you are having difficulty reconciling the growing divide between Wall Street markets that seem totally ignoring economic reality.
Many market watchers and pundits are troubled and confounded by the recent market action. Several explanations exist with each one having some validity but great uncertainty remains. In a manipulated environment such as we have today where markets are propped up and manipulated with no true price discovery, all investments have become risky. The markets are reflecting a V-shaped recovery that Citigroup warns may be far too optimistic.
A slew of new investors, most inexperienced, have stepped into the breach and bought the dip under the impression it will lead to prosperity. This is evident in the area of the most shorted stocks which are on such a rant as those most negative on the economy are forced to capitulate to a soaring market. This is occurring while Citi writes its model still shows that a greater than 70% probability of a down market in the next 12 months remains.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Mission Of Police Has Morphed From Serve And Protect
Mission Of Police Has Morphed From Serve And Protect
Again images of a cavalier and dismissive police officer with his knee on the neck of a handcuffed man that later died have brought people to the streets in protest of police brutality. This is not the first time police have overstepped their mandate. For years many officers have used a heavier hand than is necessary to enforce laws. While such heavy-handed treatment is most likely to be used on minorities and the young, it is often evident on anyone having the nerve to question the authority of someone wearing a badge. The reality is that police violence goes beyond black and white. Those granted the job of protecting and serving need to understand that “Do it because I said so” doesn’t work. The bulk of the article below indicates little has changed over the last several years.
A news story on my local news channel in 2014 reported how a man faced charges stemming from Halloween party. It told how prosecutors charged a white 20-year-old man after police say he threatened them when they broke up a party on our local college campus on Halloween. According to court documents, police responded to a call about a loud party and while speaking with party-goers, officers noticed a half-empty vodka bottle on the floor. Police said when they went into the apartment, a very white fella was loud and refused to cooperate. After putting him in handcuffs and leading him out of the building via an elevator, he reportedly threatened the officer by saying he would beat and kill him. A struggle ensued and the officer used a Taser to subdue the man who was charged with resisting law enforcement, criminal mischief, and disorderly conduct.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Retail Store Closures Have Huge Impact On Communities
Retail Store Closures Have Huge Impact On Communities
Across America many buildings stand empty or under-leased. They once housed thriving businesses that provided Americans with good-paying jobs.Over the last several years retailers have been closing stores and as the carnage rapidly accelerates this will be back in the news bigger than ever. The impact of these store closings all across America will be huge and take a huge toll on communities with a great number of jobs being lost forever.Much of this is linked to small businesses having its clock cleaned when forced to shutdown because of Covid-19, however, a lot is related to paying higher wages, compiling with new government regulations, and being forced to compete with big businesses backed by Wall Street money.
Retail closures come with a hidden cost to society that the average person fails to internalize. Retail closings will result in lots of other small businesses closing their doors. Not only will the retail employees lose their jobs but these stores support many local businesses.People often forget that the brick and mortar stores suffer several expenses not fostered upon online companies. All these constitute a sort of tax on these stores which benefits the community in which they are located.
These costs rapidly add up and include such things as maintaining landscaping, ensuring safe ingress and egress, or providing a parking lot for customers. Staffing for longer hours, for the convenience of customers, often results in being open when foot traffic would indicate a store should be closed. Dealing with security and shoplifters is another expensive burden. Over the last few years, stores such as Target and Macy’s have even had to face a slew of dishonest shoppers trying to sneak defectives products purchased online back as exchanges and trading them for a fresh unbroken product. I have seen this costly abuse recommended by several online shoppers that see this as an “easy fix” on how to handle defective merchandise.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It Doesn’t Matter What You Think, Reality Is What It Is
It Doesn’t Matter What You Think, Reality Is What It Is
It doesn’t matter what you think, the reality we face is what we are seeing here on the ground. Reality is what it is and our government will as usual muddle through with poorly thought out politically correct solutions geared to kick the can down the road. This brings me little delight. I have gone a bit quiet lately because of how events are slowly unfolding, the keyword, in this case, is slowly. Rather than a wave washing over us we are experiencing a troubling drip after drip of bad news which a majority of the population has now come to accept as normal. You can put lipstick on a pig but no matter what you tell yourself, it is still a pig.
In some ways what is happening to people across the world could be compared to what occurred when the white-man came to America. The Indians slowly traded their freedom for baubles and what they did not trade away was slowly taken by force. In this analogy, technology is the shiny promise unto which we sadly surrender our future. Beware, those that claim the promise technology is the key to a better future are not quick to share its rewards.They prefer to turn us into mindless slaves and government is a tool they employ in their efforts.
Exploding debt and a slow recovery following the 2008 financial crisis. Many of us claimed it really was not a true recovery but rather a debt-fueled false economy. All this continued with the aid of a few major distractions which took our eyes off the ball. Then the corona-virus hit. Looking back, the first diversion was the emergence of ISIS and the wave of refugees that destabilized Europe and the second was the trade war with China.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Someday They Are Going To Write Books About This!
Someday They Are Going To Write Books About This!
What is occurring today is absolutely mind-boggling. Someday they are going to write books about this! While there have been some messed up financial conundrums over the years none rival the current situation now before us. The dilemma before us is a fast-moving enigma wrapped in a gossamer cloak. Not only are the players that make up the global political-financial complex busy buying up bad debt, stocks, and bailing out those they deem too big to fail, they have destroyed the concept of real interest on loans. They have trampled all over true price discovery the basis of a free market.
The budget forecast be damned, its full speed ahead. The only justification we need is saying it will be far worse if we do nothing.The bungled response of a delusional government so obsessed with the idea that by simply passing legislation they can make things happen should not be overlooked. The Paycheck Protection Program or PPP was originally funded with $350 billion but the money was soon gone. Of the thirty million small businesses in America, only 1.7 million received money from the 2.3 trillion dollar aid package passed to help sustain America during this difficult time.
This resulted in more funding but still, the last report I saw indicated only around 13% of the, less than half the businesses that were eligible, were approved before the fund was again depleted and 60% of these had yet to receive any money. Just as poorly handled was rapidly getting out money promised to individuals and creating a system where many people could receive more money by collecting unemployment than returning to work. The problem is that when all is said and done, large businesses with access to cheap capital will again be the winners and the big losers are the middle-class, small businesses, and social mobility.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Massive Unemployment Surge Creates Challenge Ahead
Massive Unemployment Surge Creates Challenge Ahead
Unemployment has several faces. It will be interesting to see how America handles the massive unemployment caused not so much by covid-19 but the government’s effort to hold employers responsible for the cost. When the government passed a law increasing employers’ responsibility for paying workers even when there was no work for them, businesses countered by mass firings. This was both the logical move and the only way most businesses could survive.
Over time the lack of gainful employment acts as a cancer upon society. Some of the poorly crafted legislation recently passed in the capital of our nation could be considered incentivizing people not to work. The evidence of this can be found in the reports of employees not wanting to return to work because they see themselves making just as much or even more money staying home or being unemployed. When we couple this with the fact many people are unmotivated when it comes to rushing off and working for “the man” it is fair to understand why some people have adopted the attitude, I won’t do that.
The evolution of the covid-19 crisis has disrupted supply chains and is starting to trigger food shortages across the country. It is causing many people to question whether an economic depression is unfolding as over 30 million people are now out of work after only six weeks. A matter of great speculation is just how rapidly the unemployment rate will fall back once this pandemic begins to subside. Congress has decided to make it rather financially rewarding not to work, and millions upon millions of Americans are going to be more than happy to take advantage of that opportunity for as long as it lasts. It is only by creating a pathway that rewards those that wish to move upward on the social-economic ladder that this attitude can be changed.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“It Will All End Badly” The Coming Economic End Game
“It Will All End Badly” The Coming Economic End Game
The wonderful thing about numbers is that when they are not jockeyed, jerked around, and falsified they tend to tell the truth. Continuing on this thought looking down the road the numbers do not work. This is where the late, Allen Meltzer, recognized for his wisdom and achievements in economics, enters the story. Meltzer was a professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He authored the three-volume “A History of the Federal Reserve” and for over 25 years he chaired the Shadow Open Market Committee, a group that meets regularly to discuss the policy of the Federal Reserve.
To say Meltzer was not a fan of the economic policies that have unfolded since 2008 is an understatement. “We’re in the biggest mess we’ve been in since the 1930s,” he has been quoted as saying, before he went on to claim that, “We’ve never had a more problematic future.” This is about a person born in 1928 that while viewed by many economists as America’s foremost expert in monetary policy is little known by the masses. Meltzer was not been a fan of recent economic policy.
In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece on June 30, 2010, titled “Why Obamanomics Has Failed” Meltzer wrote about how uncertainty about future taxes and regulations was the biggest enemy facing future economic growth. He goes on to say that the administration’s stimulus program failed. Two overreaching reasons explain the failure of Obamanomics. First, administration economists and their outside supporters neglected the longer-term costs and consequences of their actions. Second, the administration and Congress have through their deeds and words heightened uncertainty about the economic future.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Government Overreach Is Taking Away Your Freedom
Government Overreach Is Taking Away Your Freedom
It is important to recognize the value of individual freedom, many people have sacrificed their lives to protect this valuable commodity. With this in mind, I write, it is the right and duty of every citizen to question the actions of their government. Are governments across the world currently looking out for the interest of their citizens or using the current crisis as a way to grab power at the expense of the people. If this is the goal of those in power, here in America, they gain in several ways by maximizing this crisis to exercise their authority. First, they train the masses to follow instructions and do their bidding. Second, they decimate the economy destroying small businesses and making us more dependent on their larger brethren which the government can control. Third but not least they increase the number of people relying on government handouts.
This also allows the government to ramp up surveillance for the “greater good.” The power of fear and propaganda are powerful tools in the manipulation of general consensus. This is one of the main flaws in a democracy, it allows a simple majority to force their desires upon a minority. This is why our forefathers set checks and balances in the Constitution, however, even these do not guarantee freedom will remain. Today, the burden of risk and skin in the game is not equally shared by all. Over time our financial system and institutions have been corrupted by crony capitalism and a political system that panders to the masses by exchanging favors for baubles.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Damage Done To Market Signals End Of Buy The Dip Era
Damage Done To Market Signals End Of Buy The Dip Era
The damage done to markets will act as a barrier to higher stock prices in the future. This should force investors to return to reality. We have crossed the tipping point with the destruction of small businesses by the government in the name of the “greater good.” The heavy lifter, the great job creator, and the most productive part of society has been thrown under the bus. Most of the support being provided by the government is set to flow towards the most vulnerable parts of society, big business, and Wall Street banks. if anything small businesses are being asked to pay a great deal of the cost.
A few years back someone pointed out that a corporate chart indicating how a company works often ignores the truth of who is really making decisions and getting things done. For example, Fred may be the director of maintenance, and also the brother of the company’s owner, this puts him in charge of deciding when to replace machinery, however, Todd the maintenance foreman actually make the decision based on how often units require repair. In this case, if you want to sell equipment Todd is the man you want to talk to. My point is that things are not always as they appear.
This is a very complex market and it is important to sort out who is selling, who is buying, and why. The motivation behind investors’ actions speaks volumes as to where this market is going. It is difficult to argue there is a lack of visibility as to what lies ahead. We often forget the important distinction that the financial system is different from the economy.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Major Liquidity Crisis Likely As Covid-19 Spreads
Major Liquidity Crisis Likely As Covid-19 Spreads
The corona-virus has the potential to foster a major liquidity crisis, call it a liquidity issue if you want but the system could be on its way to freezing up! People and companies may decide to, or be forced, to hoard the money they have when they begin to fear new cash will not be rolling in. Paying existing bills becomes difficult when you are not working or find you must close your business for an extended length of time. At this point, the one thing that is crystal clear is that it is impossible to know how severe this will be or long how long this will go on.
Liquidity Is The First Casualty In A Financial Crisis
As to the long and short term economic consequences of this outbreak, it is difficult to say. certain sectors of the economy will without a doubt take it squarely on the chin. Businesses involved in events or dependent on people gathering or moving about are in peril. Also, thedisruption of production and deliveries will have a massive effect on business. Many small businesses simply do not have the financial resources to absorb losses and weather this storm. this means they will fail. This will create a large number of defaults on loans to lenders, suppliers, workers, and landlords.
All these people also have financial obligations that will continue. Things such as taxes, insurance, utilities, loan payments, and more. Those businesses and people in the weakest condition will be unable to borrow and this creates the possibility of a domino effect starting that could ripple through the financial system. It is difficult to argue this won’t develop into an adverse feedback loop. History shows that banks have a way of failing us when we need them most and that is why liquidity is generally the first casualty in a financial crisis.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Fed Chairman Confirms Fed’s Role As The Great Enabler
Fed Chairman Confirms Fed’s Role As The Great Enabler
As questions swirl about the Fed’s independence Fed Chair Powell has been busy trying to explain his reason for the “emergency” 50bps rate cut. Regardless of what he says Fed Chair Powell has confirmed the Fed plans to continue its role as the great enabler. This means central banks across the globe can now lower their rates or do additional stimulus without damaging the delicate balance in the relationship in the value of one major currency to another. This is a delicate balance they have long held in check to stabilize the financial system and add credence to the myth no major currency can fail.
Powell said, “My colleagues and I took this action to help the U.S. economy keep strong in the face of new risks to the economic outlook.”
Whether Powell succumbed to pressure from the highly critical words of the President for not acting immediately or fear the coronavirus would take a toll on the economy is not clear. As Powell tried to explain his actions, many of us who pay attention to such things cried “Bullshit.” Not only is a rate cut uncalled for at this time, but because it will also do little to strengthen the economy. What it will do is continue to prop up asset prices and encourage risk-taking and malinvestment. This is a big deal and may even result in more negative interest rates across the world which could create greater problems.
In the Austrian business cycle theory, malinvestments are badly allocated business investments, due to the artificially low cost of credit and an unsustainable increase in the money supply.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Next Economic Downturn May Last Forever And A Day
Next Economic Downturn May Last Forever And A Day
Market Manipulation Has Created Big Problems
Based on how Japan has fared over the last several decades it is difficult to see the green shoots of a global economic spring forth as a result of lower interest rates. In fact, the next economic downturn will likely envelope the planet and may last forever and a day. This is because central bank intervention and manipulation often carries with it negative unintended consequences. People often forget how lucky Japan has been during its trying times to be located next to China. Because of China’s years of booming growth, Japan has been able to mitigate much of the pain that occurred when its economic bubble burst in 1992.
In the decades since, Japan’s stock market has never again come near the lofty peak it hit back then. During the years after Japan’s fall from grace, it was able to soften the impact of its economic problems by strengthening ties with rapidly growing China which needed help in developing its export-driven economy. Today many people feel the global economy is in a bubble eerily similar to the one experienced by Japan before its implosion. The question is not whether the market and economy are about to undergo a massive reset but when. Concern is also growing as to how deep, painful, and long the next downturn will last.
A huge factor in the world trudging forward following 2008 is the massive growth in the money supply and debt over the last several decades. This growth in debt and credit has exploded making the financial sector a far bigger part of our economy than it should be. The economy has become more about asset values than solid growth in production, this has added to inequality and this does not create a healthy environment for investors.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Coronavirus Ignored To Protect Stock Market Rally
Coronavirus Ignored To Protect Stock Market Rally
It appears an effort to mask the danger of the coronavirus from the American people may be in play. This could be an attempt to protect Trump’s all-important stock market rally. It has become very apparent that the President values the stock markets’ constant move to newer highs as a reflection that he has done an outstanding job promoting economic growth. This shortsightedness coupled with Trump’s massive ego may have placed his need for self-gratification in front of the welfare of the American people.
Thus far many people in my part of the country are unaware of or under the impression, we have little to fear from this virus. Sadly, most Americans pay little attention to breaking news. How many Americans know of the events unfolding in Wuhan, China? The city of over 12 million people has been on lock-down since January 23rd. This coupled with what appears an attempt to deny or cover up the threat of how easily and rapidly the often deadly coronavirus can spread puts all Americans at future risk.
The President has even gone so far as to praise China’s leader Friday morning in a tweet. This seems to conflict with reports that Washington is especially frustrated with Beijing over the crisis. For the last month, the CDC has been offering to send a team of experts to help China combat the outbreak but the Chinese have refused to accept the help. The President’s tweet can be seen below;
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrumpJust had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Global Financial System Is A Big Rube Goldberg Machine
Global Financial System Is A Big Rube Goldberg Machine
While pondering the current economy that is becoming more of a conundrum every day, I stumbled upon an analogy I would like to share. The global economy is like a giant “Rube Goldberg” machine. It is a ridiculously complicated contraption built to perform what should normally be a simple task. Rube Goldberg machines often mimic the real world in that they are goal-oriented with many parts coming together to complete a task.
In the real world, things are usually not intentionally designed to be complicated but the reality is that they just are. It is an understatement to say the global financial system is not a well-oiled machine. More often than we would like to admit various systems and parts are thrown or “cobbled together” in a haphazard way to get the job done. We tend to try and explain events in terms of cause and effect but in doing so the bigger picture has a way of getting lost. Often hidden away is the nature of the risk that results from complexity and systems becoming codependent upon others. Bestselling author Nassim Taleb who wrote, “The Black Swan” detailed in his book how when something is highly complicated highly improbable and unpredictable events can and do occur.
Some of this is playing out right now and can be seen in the Fed’s key reversal in policy. In an effort to avoid a crisis the Fed has been forced to deal with a liquidity issue in repo rates since a sudden and dramatic surge began in September. While it is difficult to see the difference between QE and an injection aimed at maintaining liquidity, in this case, several reasons exist to believe this is not QE but something far more disturbing.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
