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US Economy – Slip-Sliding Away
US Economy – Slip-Sliding Away Economic Conditions Continue to Worsen It must be China. Or the weather, which is usually either too cold or to warm – somehow the weather is just neverright for economic growth. Surely it cannot be another Fed policy-induced boom that is on the verge of going bust? Sorry, we completely forgot […]
Switzerland’s Referendum on Fractional Reserve Banking
Switzerland’s Referendum on Fractional Reserve Banking A Warmed-Up “Chicago Plan” Many of our readers may be aware by now that a Swiss initiative against fractional reserve banking has gathered the required 100,000 signatures to force a referendum on the matter. Is is called the “Vollgeld Initiative”, whereby “Vollgeld” could be loosely translated as “fully covered […]
Stock Market Suffers Worst Start to the Year Ever – What Does it Mean?
Stock Market Suffers Worst Start to the Year Ever – What Does it Mean? A Dismal Beginning From December 30 to the end of the first week trading week of January, the DJIA has declined by roughly 7.7% (approx. 1,370 points) and the SPX by roughly 7.6% (approx. 160 points). This was nothing compared to […]
The EU Bail-In Directive: Dark Clouds are Gathering
The EU Bail-In Directive: Dark Clouds are Gathering Portugal’s Rickety Banking System After the unseemly bankruptcy of the Espirito Santo Group and the associated bank, then Portugal’s second biggest (likely a result of not praying enough, see: “Big Portuguese Bank Gets Into Trouble” and “Fears Over Banco Espirito Santo Escalate” for the gory details), Portugal’s […]
How Big is the Bust in Commodities Really?
How Big is the Bust in Commodities Really? Have all the “Supercycle” Gains been Wiped Out? We have frequently come across articles lately that are purporting to show that commodity prices have in the meantime declined below the lows that obtained at the start of the last bull market. Yesterday Zerohedge e.g. posted a chart from Sean […]
US Economy – on the Verge of Recession?
US Economy – on the Verge of Recession? US Manufacturing Sector Weakens Further – Alea Iacta Est? On the first trading day of the year, China’s stock market crumbled, seemingly waylaid by yet another weak manufacturing PMI report and a further slide in the yuan. On the same day, a few Fed members came out affirming […]
The FOMC Decision, US Money Supply and the Economy
The FOMC Decision, US Money Supply and the Economy Giving the Kremlinologists Something to Do As is well known by now, on Wednesday the US central monetary planning bureau finally went through with its threat to hike the target range for overnight bank lending rates from nothing to almost nothing. Photo credit: Luca Brenta The very […]
The Poison of Central Planning
The Poison of Central Planning As is well known, central banks around the world have deployed a range of “unconventional policies” in recent years, ranging from imposing zero to negative interest rates, to outright money printing (QE). Photo via americanpatriotdaily.com We have seen a number of people argue that “QE” does not really involve “money […]
US Stock Market – An Accident Waiting to Happen
US Stock Market – An Accident Waiting to Happen Monetary Inflation Becomes Less Supportive of Asset Prices We have recently discussed the sorry state of the junk bond market, as well as the noteworthy decline in the annual growth rate of US money supply aggregates. The latter has finally manifested itself not only in terms of narrow monetary […]
Europe’s Banks Are Still Drowning in Bad Loans
Europe’s Banks Are Still Drowning in Bad Loans A “Major Concern” The European Banking Authority EBA, which (we guess) is fighting for its survival after the ECB has become the sole supervisor of Europe’s “systemically relevant” banks, has recently issued a comprehensive report on the European banking system (this included the unintended revelation that its […]
US Money Supply Growth Finally Begins to Crack
US Money Supply Growth Finally Begins to Crack Breaking Below the Shelf In our recent missive on junk bonds, we inter alia discussed the fact that the growth rate of the narrow money supply aggregate M1 had declined rather noticeably from its peak in 2011. Here is a link to the chart. As we wrote: “We also […]
Junk Bonds Under Pressure
Junk Bonds Under Pressure While the Stock Market is Partying … There are seemingly always “good reasons” why troubles in a sector of the credit markets are supposed to be ignored – or so people are telling us, every single time. Readers may recall how the developing problems in the sub-prime sector of the mortgage […]
The Next Level of John Law Type Central Planning Madness
The Next Level of John Law Type Central Planning Madness Cries for Going Totally Crazy are Intensifying What are the basic requirements for becoming the chief economist of the IMF? Judging from what we have seen so far, the person concerned has to be a died-in-the-wool statist and fully agree with the (neo-) Keynesian faith, […]
Haruhiko Kuroda – The Pressure to “Do More” Rises
Haruhiko Kuroda – The Pressure to “Do More” Rises BoJ Leaves Policy Unchanged, but What Comes Next? The Bank of Japan has employed QE programs since March of 2001 (in February of 2001, it still claimed that “QE will be ineffective” – it was right then, for the last time). These have had no effect […]
Waiting to be SKEWered?
Waiting to be SKEWered? SKEW Goes Pear-Shaped Back in 1998, at the height of the Russian crisis, the CBOE SKEW Index reached its all time high of 146.88. Previously very high values were seen on the eve of the 1990 recession, and in March 2006 it spiked again when sudden worries about the housing bubble […]
