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Civil Unrest = Hoarding of Assets

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You pick themes that are not really just political on the surface, but beneath you are connecting the dots economically. This is what I read between the lines for you do not always emphasize it in every post why you will address issues like migration and civil unrest. Are these serious issues to the economic backdrop?

HW

ANSWER: Oh yes. Perhaps I just understand that is the backdrop so I do not openly restate it because it is obvious to me. Not a very good communication tactic on my part. To explicitly state this, when the economy turns downward, people will then blame migrants. Today, they label this as racist. That is simply not true. It really has nothing to do with race or religion. We saw civil unrest turn to violence during the 1840s when there was a wholesale State level Sovereign Debt Crisis in the United States. That was against the Irish who were the same race, but were at least Catholics that the Protestants did not like back in Europe.

During such period of civil unrest, capital contracts and begins to hoard. This is what caused the German Hyperinflation for that was a 1918 Communist Revolution which overthrew the German Emperor. We also find hoards of ancient coins from periods of economic stress. The 3rd century AD is when we have the most hoards, but they tend to cluster also around civil unrest and civil wars. If people are fearful or uncertain about the future, they do NOT spend and they contract. So the global trend I am highlighting with respect to rising civil unrest is important economically. The fact that this trend is WORLDWIDE, is particularly alarming for it further supports the fact that we are in the Sixth Wave and 2032 will be the generational change of monumental proportions.

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Venezuela’s Episode of Hyperinflation Reaches New “Highs” – Prices Double Every 17.5 Days

The most important price in an economy is the exchange rate between the local currency and the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar. As long as there is an active black-market (read: free market) for currency and the data are available, changes in the black-market exchange rate can be reliably transformed into accurate estimates of countrywide inflation rates—if the annual inflation rates exceed 25%. The economic principle of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) allows for this transformation.

Using this principle, I compute implied annual inflation rates using high-frequency data and report them on a daily basis. For the countries that I monitor daily, the table below shows the annual rates for the eight countries with the highest inflation rates in the world.

At present, Venezuela is suffering from hyperinflation. It holds down the top spot on my list, with an annual inflation rate of 16,428%. Note that my measurement of the implied inflation rate is much higher than the widely reported International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) end-of-year forecast of 12,870% (13,000% rounded). I measure; the IMF foolishly forecasts. A comparison of my measurements with the IMF’s projections for the other seven countries’ year-end annual inflation rates shows that the IMF’s projections are way off the mark. Indeed, my current measured inflation rates for “today” exceed those that the IMF projects, with the exception of South Sudan’s, by a wide margin. Given these large divergences and the IMF’s poor record of forecasting inflation in countries experiencing elevated inflation rates, one wonders why the financial press reports the IMF forecasts, and why it does so with such reverence.

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Everything You Need to Know About Inflation

Everything You Need to Know About Inflation

It’s been said that when the U.S. sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold.  Inflation by overall annual average has been below target for some years now, since 2012 to be exact. The Fed usually seeks a 2% inflation as a comfort zone.

Granted, it’s only one data point but with unemployment currently low and some signs that economic growth is accelerating, the suggestion exists that overheating/inflation is a risk for the U.S. economy in a way that hasn’t existed for about ten years.

What is inflation?

Inflation is when the buying power of a currency declines over time.  If inflation is 2% that translates to a basket of groceries which cost $100 today costing $102 a year from now.

But since prices rise and fall and we each buy different articles how is that tracked?  Government statisticians and economists create indexes to reflect a full range of products and services that are consumed weighted by how much the average household spends on each item.

Various ways of measuring are done by comparing the decline of the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies or to gold.  The aggregate of the items compared can show how prices are changing over time considering the range of items the average household purchases

This leads to the next question, “is inflation good or bad?”

It can be either.  In places like Venezuela today or Zimbabwe a few years ago, inflation was so out of control that the currency ceased to function as a means of exchange and the population was forced to resort to a barter system.  This led to a breakdown in the two countries’ financial systems.

 

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The Specter of Hyperinflation: Remarque’s “The Black Obelisk”

The Specter of Hyperinflation: Remarque’s “The Black Obelisk”

Erich Maria Remarque, author of All Quiet on the Western Front, produced a novel in 1956 called The Black Obelisk about the nightmarish hyperinflation that battered the German mark in the early 1920’s and led to the rise of fascism.  Germany’s experience during the troubled Weimar era, as detailed by Remarque, offers a frightening glimpse of what might well happen to this country in the years ahead.

Remarque’s novel describes a population that races breathlessly from Monday through Saturday to keep pace with inflation: “There’s no new dollar quotation Saturday afternoons.  From noon [Saturday] till Monday morning our currency is stable.”  (Note the importance of the “dollar quotation”.  Already the US dollar had become the international currency of exchange.)

This is a world where those ruined by hyperinflation are “the people who have property they are forced to sell, small shopkeepers, day laborers, people with small incomes who see their bank accounts melting away, and government officials and employees who have to survive on salaries that no longer allow them to buy so much as a new pair of shoes.  The ones who profit are the exchange kings, the profiteers, the foreigners who buy what they like with a few dollars, krone, or zlotys, and the big entrepreneurs and manufacturers, and the speculators on the exchange whose property and stocks increase without limit”.

Remarque’s protagonist Ludwig Bodmer is an embittered veteran of the trenches who resides in the fictional town of Werdenbrück, where he plays the piano for amusement and the organ for a local church and earns his living selling headstones for Heinrich Kroll and Sons, Funeral Monuments.  He categorizes the firm’s inventory as follows: “cheap little headstones of sandstone and poured concrete with narrow pointed socles, for the poor, who live and slave in honesty and naturally get nowhere.  . . . Next come the monuments of sandstone with inset plaques of marble, gray syenite, or black Swedish granite . . .  for small businessmen, foremen, artisans who own their own businesses . . . ”  Then come the larger polished monuments for “the more prosperous middle classes, the employer, the businessman, the larger store owner, and of course that diligent bird of ill omen, the higher official . . .” and finally there are elegant showpieces for “rich farmers, property owners, profiteers, and clever business people who deal in long-term promissory notes and so live on the Reichsbank, which keeps paying for everything with constantly replenished and unsupported paper currency”.  Spouses and relatives of suicides are also frequent customers.

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Venezuela Knocks Three Zeros Off Its Currency to Halt Hyperinflation

Redenomination is Venezuela’s sorry story of the day. It won’t work.

In a worthless attempt to halt hyperinflation, Venezuela Deletes Three Zeros From Its Failing Currency.

Socialist Venezuela is going through a crisis that has left people struggling to pay for food and find medicines. Prices are being influenced by a black-market exchange rate that rises by the day and is currently five times the nearly inaccessible official rate.

President Nicolás Maduro late Thursday briefly outlined his monetary rescue plan. In a country where a dozen eggs can cost 250,000 bolivars ($5) amid worsening inflation, he would chop three zeros off the currency — arguably bringing the price for those eggs down to 250.

By June 2, under Maduro’s plan, new bolivars with lower denominations would be circulated — but old ones, with denominations as high as 100,000, would remain valid. It would leave vendors charging two prices — one for old bills, the other for the redenominated bolivar.

Empty Shelves

Merchants are arrested if they charge too much for food. The result is no food.

Loot or Die

The Guardian reports ‘We loot or we die of hunger’: food shortages fuel unrest in Venezuela.

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Venezuela’s Inflation Surges to A New High: 8321%

After Venezuela ditched its multiple exchange-rate system and announced that it would introduce a new cryptocurrency (read: the petro), the hapless bolivar staged a bit of a rally. Many people concluded that the rally was the result of these two policy changes. While that conclusion might hold some water, it isn’t much.

The bolivar’s demand and supply fundamentals point to the source of the bolivar’s recent temporary strength. It’s tax season in Venezuela, and people pay taxes in bolivars. So, there has been a seasonal increase in the demand for bolivars. Instead of selling their ever-depreciating bolivars into the black market, many bolivars have been sent to the tax collector. With the tax season ending in March, the temporary surge in the bolivar demand has petered out. Not surprisingly, the bolivar is plunging again.

The Grim Reaper has taken his scythe to the Venezuelan bolivar. The death of the bolivar is depicted in the following chart. On the black market (read: free market), a bolivar is worthless, and with its collapse, Venezuela is witnessing today the world’s worst inflation.


As the bolivar collapsed and inflation accelerated, the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) became an unreliable source of inflation data. However, from December 2014 until January 2016, the BCV did not report inflation statistics. Then, the BCV pulled a rabbit out of its hat in January 2016 and reported a phony annual inflation rate for the third quarter of 2015. Nonetheless, the last official inflation data reported by the BCV is still almost two years old. To remedy this problem, the Johns Hopkins – Cato Institute Troubled Currencies Project, which I direct, began to measure Venezuela’s inflation in 2013. We measure the monthly and annual inflation rates on a daily basis. We measure. We do not forecast.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

The Way to Survive Hyperinflation

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I just wanted to comment that I am from Venezuela. My father came here to visit me in Florida where I live with a Green Card. Everything he saved in life for his retirement is now worthless and it does not even pay to travel back to collect his pension. The hyperinflation is a collapse in the confidence of government as you have explained. Those who saved for their retirement and had pensions, lose everything. They will be paid the amount that they were promised, but it will not even buy a single night’s dinner and soon a beer.

Thank you for your contribution to society. I wish more people would listen to you. Experience is the root of knowledge. Opinion is the root of bias. You have proven that

JE

REPLY: To survive hyperinflation requires the holding of tangible assets and never cash or pensions. The way pensions can be devalued is through inflation over the course of time and circumstance. What I paid into Social Security will never come back to me in terms of real purchasing power and that is without hyperinflation. I have stated before, I met with the Treasury back during the Reagan Administration and said these insane levels of interest rates will triple the national debt in less than 10 years. They simply responded; Yes but we will be paying back with cheaper dollars.

All promises of government are simply eroded with inflation. That is why Southern Europe fell into such chaos. The currency doubled instead of declining when they joined the Euro. That is why Europe has been a failure under this political-economic philosophy. The Euro first crashed, and then doubled in value. Southern Europe was used to inflation always reducing their debts. Suddenly, their debts doubled and deflation ruled. And people cannot figure out why the Euro is in such trouble?

I do like your saying though. It is spot on.

 

Venezuela’s 4,000% Hyperinflation ‘Breaks’ Cash-Weighing Scales

Mired in a brutal economic collapse, Venezuela refuses to publish basic statistics.

So Bloomberg created their own gauge to measure one of the most important of all the missing figures – inflation (or hyperinflation in this case).

Bloomberg explains that, as the name would suggest, it tracks just one item: a cup of coffee served piping hot at a bakery in eastern Caracas. Its price has jumped to 75,000 bolivars from 1,800 bolivars over the past 12 months, an increase of 4,067%.

As we noted previously, the printing press simply cannot save the country from a death spiral, but it doesn’t mean Maduro is prepared to let go of power. He has maintained that Venezuela’s problems are due to economic warfare being waged by the United States to topple the oil-rich socialist regime.

Bremmer Rodrigues, who runs a bakery on the outskirts of Caracas, said his family are at a loss over what to do with their bags of bills. “It’s a mountain of cash, every day more and more.”

The shrinking value of the currency has meant that withdrawing the equivalent of $5 from an ATM produces brickloads of bills. Some ATMs now need to be refilled every few hours, because the machines can only hold so much cash. This means there are often a limited number of functioning ATMs in Caracas, and long queues to withdraw money.

But the wheelbarrows-full of bills have meant paying for everyday groceries has changed in the socialist utopia.

Having thrown in the towel on hyperinflation by printing banknotes with 200-times-higher denominations, we noted previously that things in Venezuela have continued to get worse with the currency now so devalued (with even simple purchases requiring so many bills) that instead of counting bills, they are weighing them.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hyperinflation Unfolds Only When Public Confidence Collapses

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I read your piece on South Africa and you are the only person to explain that the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe took place after they stole all the land from the white farmers. You really turn over every stone in your research.

My hat is off to you sir.

MH

ANSWER: Well I was not aware of that, but it does not surprise me. Everyone attributes hyperinflation to the simple increase in the supply of money. I have stressed countless times that hyperinflation unfolds ONLY when people NO LONGER TRUST THE GOVERNMENT! The Zimbabwe hyperinflation ended the same way as Germany. Once Zimbabwe expropriated white farmers without compensation, public confidence collapsed. Nobody would invest in Zimbabwe after that. This is what South Africa now risks. Nobody will invest in a country that does not respect property rights. This is what we call COUNTRY or POLITICAL RISK! 

The French hyperinflation took place with the assignats, which were issued in conjunction with the revolution. They were so interested in robbing the rich and even the Catholic Church, that the confidence in banks and the government collapsed.

I have also shown numerous times that the famous German hyperinflation followed the Communist Revolution in 1918, which established the Weimar Republic. Once again, if you had any wealth, you hoarded it. People held foreign coins as the alternative to German currency.

In Venezuela, once more it is the collapse in the confidence of government that compels it to produce more and more money to pay its troops. This is the net effect once again when people no longer trust the government and wealth is hoarded using foreign currency – in this case, American dollars.

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Turkey – Default or War?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, My father was ______ the banker who commissioned you to do the Turkish lira hedging project in 1983. He passed away as you know. I found this material in his files on Turkey that you apparently published back in 1985. Some articles are saying that Turkey is the epic center of debt. I do not get that sense here and I figured you were really the authority my father always quoted. Can you shed some light on this subject?

Thank you

__

ANSWER: Yes, I remember your father well. You have my sincere condolences. I remember that project for it was very challenging. I had to create a hedging model for the Turkish lira when nobody would make a market. That was one of my earliest synthetic creations.

The Turkish lira continues to move into hyperinflation and it has nothing to do with the fiscal policies of the government. Plain and simple – even its own people do not trust the government nor the currency. Hyperinflation takes place not because of the quantity of money, but because of the collapse in public confidence.

Turkey is BY NO MEANS the epic center of the debt crisis. That is really an absurd statement. Turkey has sold Dollar-denominated foreign debt like all other questionable emerging market countries. That is how they all have sold debt by taking the currency risk on to themselves.

I have been warning that as the US rates rise, this puts pressure on the $9 trillion of emerging market debt issued in dollars. The risk of a major debt crisis starting in Turkey is a very myopic view as we are facing a contagion of a Sovereign Debt Crisis among all emerging markets.

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Venezuela Officially Defaults; Annual Inflation 2689 Percent: When Does the Military Take Over?

Electricidad de Caracas, a Venezuelan state-owned electric company, officially defaulted on a $650 million bond payment. The company was already a month late on its payment before the trustee, Wilmington Trust, issued a statement. Meaanwhile, Professor Steve Hanke notes annual inflation is 2689%.

Venezuela’s Electricidad de Caracas — a state-owned electric company — has defaulted on a $650 million bond payment, Wilmington Trust said Friday.

The default comes as the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) prepares to decide next Monday whether state-run oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) experienced a credit event earlier this month.

PDVSA missed a $1.12 billion bond payment on Nov. 2. If ISDA decides that PDVSA did experience a credit event, that could lead bondholders to declare a default, which could trigger an avalanche.

“We expect if holders do declare a default then that could be used to trigger cross default across the whole US$28bn of PDVSA bonds,” Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist at Exotix Capital, said in a note. He noted, however, that bondholders “may simply give the government more time to make the payment, as the intention seems to be there, but coordinating a large group of holders with different incentives could prove challenging.”

Food Shortages

President Nicolas Maduro erased any remnants of democracy in late July, stripping political opponents of power and establishing a new legislature filled with his cronies.

But Maduro’s cemented regime still faces the same problems it started years ago: An exodus of its educated class combined with mass shortages of food, medicine, money and — most importantly — time.

Shortages of basic medicine and proper medical equipment are common. More than 750 women died during or shortly after childbirth in 2016, a 66% increase from 2015, according to the Venezuelan health ministry.

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Venezuela’s Grim Reaper: A Current Inflation Measurement – Current Annual Rate 2875%

Venezuela’s Grim Reaper: A Current Inflation Measurement – Current Annual Rate 2875%

The Grim Reaper has taken his scythe to the Venezuelan bolivar. The death of the bolivar is depicted in the following chart. A bolivar is worthless, and with its collapse, Venezuela is witnessing the world’s worst inflation.

As the bolivar collapsed and inflation accelerated, the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) became an unreliable source of inflation data. Indeed, from December 2014 until January 2016, the BCV did not report inflation statistics. Then, the BCV pulled a rabbit out of its hat in January 2016 and reported a phony annual inflation rate for the third quarter of 2015. So, the last official inflation data reported by the BCV is almost two years old. To remedy this problem, the Johns Hopkins – Cato Institute Troubled Currencies Project, which I direct, began to measure Venezuela’s inflation in 2013.

The most important price in an economy is the exchange rate between the local currency and the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar. As long as there is an active black market (read: free market) for currency and the black market data are available, changes in the black market exchange rate can be reliably transformed into accurate estimates of countrywide inflation rates. The economic principle of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) allows for this transformation.

I compute the implied annual inflation rate on a daily basis by using PPP to translate changes in the VEF/USD exchange rate into an annual inflation rate. The chart below shows the course of that annual rate, which last peaked at 3473% (yr/yr) in late October 2017. At present, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate is 2875%, the highest in the world (see the chart below).

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This Is What The Death Of A Nation Looks Like: Venezuela Prepares For 2,300% Hyperinflation

This Is What The Death Of A Nation Looks Like: Venezuela Prepares For 2,300% Hyperinflation

Back in January 2016, we showed what the collapse of Venezuela looks like, when in addition to charting Venezuela’s imploding currency (which back then was trading at a positive expensive 941 bolivars to the dollar), we presented what at the time was the IMF’s latest Venezuela inflation forecast, which stunned us as it surged from 275% in the just concluded 2015 to a whopping 720% at the end of 2016.

Fast forward nearly two years until today, when the IMF released its latest estimate of what it believes will happen to Venezuela’s economy in the coming year and a half. What is striking, besides the fact that Venezuela has somehow still managed to avoid bankruptcy, is that the IMF now expects Venezuela’s hyperinflation to reach a staggering 2,349% in 2018, after rising by “only” 626% this year, the highest estimate for any country tracked by the IMF. While the South American country stopped reporting economic data in 2015, the IMF estimates that last year inflation clocked in around 254%, a number which is set to soar in the coming years for obvious reasons.

At the same time as residents scramble to find alternative currencies to the local paper which will lost all of its purchasing power over the next year, the IMF predicts the “intensification of the political crisis in Venezuela” will lead to a further decrease in economic output. As a result, GDP is expected to shrink 6% in 2018, after dropping an estimated 12% in 2017.

And, as oil production declines and uncertainty increases, unemployment is forecast to increase to about 30% in 2018, also the highest and followed by South Africa’s 28% and Greece’s 21% .

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German Hyperinflation & What They Do Not Teach in School

QUESTION: Dear Marty

Following your blog is a good way to counter the propaganda in our society.

Today you stated:

‘This was the fate of the hyperinflation in Germany. It was NOT the Quantity of Money theory, it was the fact that there was a 1918 Communist Revolution in Germany where they had even asked the Communist Russians to take over Germany. It was the collapse in CONFIDENCE that led to the hyperinflation.’

Living in the UK, with German friends, I do not know any person who is aware of this and they would not believe that Germany nearly became communist if I told them. This is not taught at school anywhere.

Can you point me to some literature or other sources where we can find out more about what happened with the communists in Germany and elsewhere in Europe? I know they are making a resurgence at present (Think the EU!)

Thanks for all you do

SP

Wilheim II (1914) 20 mark

ANSWER: Curious. I know that in Germany they do not really teach the details of the rise of Hitler. But he was the ultimate reaction to the events of the 1920s. There is a good book on the subject, but it is in German – Die Deutsche Revolution 1918/19I have explained this revolution for this is why Germany overthrew Emperor Wilhelm II who was compelled to abdicate. There are photographs of the civil war that took place at that time.

This was the Weimar Republic, which was the revolution and the end of Prussian emperors. The revolutionary period lasted from November 1918 until the adoption in August 1919. But what also seems to be omitted from many accounts taught in school, is the simple fact that the German government interfered in the Russian Revolution and was instrumental in creating the Russian Revolution.

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Does the World End in Fire or Ice? Thoughts on Japan and the Inflation/Deflation Debate

Does the World End in Fire or Ice? Thoughts on Japan and the Inflation/Deflation Debate

Japan has managed to offset decades of deflationary dynamics, but at a cost that is hidden beneath the surface of apparent stability.
Do we implode in a deflationary death spiral (ice) or in an inflationary death spiral (fire)? Debating the question has been a popular parlor game for years, with Eric Janszen’s 1999 Ka-Poom Deflation/Inflation Theory often anchoring the discussion.
I invite everyone interested in the debate to read Janszen’s reasoning and prediction of a deflationary spiral that then triggers a monstrous inflationary response from central banks/states desperate to prop up their faltering status quo.
Alternatively, economies can skip the deflationary spiral and move directly to the collapse of their currency via hyper-inflation. This chart of the Venezuelan currency (Bolivar) illustrates the “skip deflation, go straight to hyper-inflation” pathway:
If we set aside the many financial rabbit holes of the inflation/deflation discussion, we find three dominant non-financial dynamics in play:demographics, technology and energy.
As populations age and retire, the resulting decline in incomes and spending are inherently deflationary: less money is earned, and less money is spent, reducing economic activity (gross domestic product).
The elderly also sell assets such as stocks, bonds and their primary house to fund their retirement, and if the elderly populace is a major cohort (due to low birth rates and increasing life spans, etc.), then this mass dumping of assets is also deflationary, as the increasing supply of sellers and the stagnating supply of buyers pushes prices lower.
Recession and stagnation are also deflationary. Shift 10 million workers from secure fulltime employment with full benefits to low-paid, insecure part-time jobs with few benefits, and you have a self-reinforcing deflationary spiral in action: a significant percentage of the workforce is now receiving far less income, which necessarily slashes their spending and just as importantly, their ability to borrow huge sums of money to buy vehicles, homes, overseas vacations, etc.

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