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Low Oil Prices: An Indication of Major Problems Ahead?
Low Oil Prices: An Indication of Major Problems Ahead? Many people, including most Peak Oilers, expect that oil prices will rise endlessly. They expect rising oil prices because, over time, companies find it necessary to access more difficult-to-extract oil. Accessing such oil tends to be increasingly expensive because it tends to require the use of greater […]
Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems
Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems The world economy seems to be seriously ill. The problem is not overly high oil prices, but that does not rule out energy as being a major underlying problem. Two of the symptoms of the economy’s malaise are slow wage growth and increasing wage disparity. Tariffs […]
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 2
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 2 The world economy can appear to be operating quite well but can be hiding a major problem that causes it to be fragile. My presentation The World’s Fragile Economic Condition (PDF) explains why we should expect financial problems if energy consumption stops growing sufficiently rapidly. In fact, a global […]
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1 Where is the world economy heading? In my opinion, a large portion of the story that we usually hear about how the world economy operates and the role energy plays is not really correct. In this post (to be continued in Part 2 in the near future), I […]
Introduction to the “World’s Fragile Economic Condition”
Introduction to the “World’s Fragile Economic Condition” I will be giving a presentation to a group of casualty actuaries on September 17 called “The World’s Fragile Economic Condition.” I plan to write up the presentation in two posts, one covering the first three of the six sections of the presentation, and the second one covering […]
How energy shortages really affect the economy
How energy shortages really affect the economy Many people expect energy shortages to lead to high prices. This is based on their view of what “running out” of oil might do to the economy. In this post, I look at historical data surrounding inadequate energy supply. I also consider some of the physics associated with the […]
Supplemental energy puts humans in charge
Supplemental energy puts humans in charge Energy is a subject that is greatly misunderstood. Its role in our lives is truly amazing. We humans are able to live and move because of the energy that we get from food. We count this energy in calories. Green plants are also energy dependent. In photosynthesis, plants use energy […]
Eight insights based on December 2017 energy data
Eight insights based on December 2017 energy data BP recently published energy data through December 31, 2017, in its Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. The following are a few points we observe, looking at the data: [1] The world is making limited progress toward moving away from fossil fuels. The two bands that top fossil fuels that […]
Our Energy Problem Is a Quantity Problem
Our Energy Problem Is a Quantity Problem Reading many of today’s energy articles, it is easy to get the impression that our energy problem is a quality problem—some energy is polluting; other energy is hoped to be less polluting. There is a different issue that we are not being told about. It is the fact that having […]
How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others
How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others Why have long-term interest rates generally fallen since 1981? Why have asset prices risen? Can these trends be expected to continue? The standard evaluation approach by actuaries and economists seems to be to look at past patterns and assume that […]
Why oil prices can’t rise very high, for very long
Why oil prices can’t rise very high, for very long Oil prices are now as high as they have been for three years. At this writing, Brent is $74.14 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate is at $68.76. These prices aren’t really very high, if a person looks at the situation from a longer term point […]
Energy Return on Energy Invested – Prof. Charles Hall’s Comments
Energy Return on Energy Invested – Prof. Charles Hall’s Comments In my most recent post, Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work, I made some comments about the calculation of Energy Returned on Energy Invested. Professor Charles Hall sent me the following response to what I said, which he wanted to have published. I have […]
Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work
Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work The most prevalent view regarding future oil supply, as well as total energy supply, seems to be fairly closely related to that expressed by Peak Oilers. Future fossil fuel supply is assumed to be determined by the resources in the ground and the technology available for […]
Our Latest Oil Predicament
Our Latest Oil Predicament It is impossible to tell the whole oil story, but perhaps I can offer a few insights regarding where we are today. [1] We already seem to be back to the falling oil prices and refilling storage tanks scenario. US crude oil stocks hit their low point on January 19, 2018 and have started […]
