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But forget QE-4.

The Germans, with Teutonic precision, call them “Punishment Interest.” Negative interest rates are spreading from the ECB’s negative deposit rate across the bond market and to some savings accounts in the Eurozone. The idea is to enrich existing bond holders and flog savers until their mood improves. Stock prices are allowed to get crushed by reality.

Negative interest rates destroy one of the most essential mechanisms in an economy: the pricing of risk. Investors end up taking huge risks with no reward. Many of them will get cleaned out down the road.

In Switzerland, punishment interest already causes “perverse unpredictable effects,” as mortgage rates have started to soar. It’s wreaking havoc in Denmark and Sweden. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz let the idea float that he’d unleash punishment interest to destroy the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Japan announced Friday morning – timed for maximum market effect – that it too would inflict negative interest rates on its subjects.

In the US, Ben Bernanke has been out there preaching to the choir about them. Over-indebted corporate America, except for the banks, would love this absurdity; it would allow them to actually make money off their mountain of debt.

“Potentially anything – including negative interest rates – would be on the table,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen told a House of Representatives committee in early November.

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer has been publicly obsessing about them for a while. Monday, during the Q&A after his speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, he said that negative interest rates are “working more than I can say I expected in 2012.”

It seems to be just talk. But negative interest rates are already baked into the official scenario for 2016.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

More Central Bank Trouble in Canada

January 22, 2016

More Central Bank Trouble in Canada

Yesterday, the Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz surprised many by not lowering the target for the overnight rate to 0.25% from 0.50%. The central bank cut this rate twice last year in an attempt to stimulate the economy. During the past nine months the TSX index has fallen from more than 15,500 to below 11,800, the Canadian dollar has depreciated from US$0.84 to below US$0.69 and crude oil prices have fallen from US$60/bbl to less than US$28/bbl. Consumer prices for imported products are rising quickly and government tax revenues are falling. In other words, the circumstances that usually motivate the Bank of Canada to act did not trigger a response from authorities this time.

The decision on the overnight rate may make the Bank of Canada an exception among other central banks that have reduced their key lending rates to zero or less. Bucking the trend does not mean that Canadians are going to escape the consequences of seven years of an overnight rate of 1.0% or less.

It is widely expected the Federal budget is going to contain borrowing $15 billion in the next fiscal year, ostensibly to “stimulate the economy”. Borrowing by the provincial government in Alberta could easily be more than half the Federal level of borrowing. Incredibly, the provincial government in Quebec may be the most parsimonious of all provincial governments.

Governments have no wealth of their own that is not first taken from someone else. There are only three sources available: current taxpayers, future taxpayers and in the case of the federal government, creating inflation by selling government bonds to the Bank of Canada. Stimulus spending likely means that future taxpayers will be confiscated to a greater extent than they would be otherwise. Inflation will erode further the purchasing power of every Canadian dollar in existence. Initial recipients of stimulus transfers will benefit; most Canadians will not.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada’s “Other” Problem: Record High Household Debt

January 20, 2016

Canada’s “Other” Problem: Record High Household Debt

Earlier today, the Bank of Canada surprised some market participants by failing to cut rates.

True, the loonie was plunging and another rate cut might very well have accelerated the decline, further eroding the purchasing power of Canadians who are already struggling to keep up with the inexorable rise in food prices, but there are other, more pressing concerns.

Like the fact that some analysts say the CAD should shoulder even more of the burden as Canada struggles to adjust to a world of sub-$30 crude. In short, if Stephen Poloz could manage to drive the loonie lower, the CAD-denominated price of WCS might stand a chance of remaining above the marginal cost of production. Barring that, the shut-ins will start and that means even more job losses in Canada’s oil patch, which shed some 100,000 total positions in 2015.

Alas, Poloz elected to stay put, characterizing the current state of monetary policy as “appropriate.”

We’re reasonably sure that assessment won’t hold once the layoffs pick up and as we noted earlier, the longer Poloz waits, the larger the next cut will ultimately have to be, which means that if the BOC waits too long, Poloz may have to rethink his contention that the effective lower bound is -0.50%.

While there are a laundry list of concerns when it comes to assessing the state of the Canadian economy and the impact of either higher rates (the loonie is supported but growth is further choked off) or lower rates (the economy gets a boost but consumer spending is stifled as Canadians watch their purchasing power evaporate), perhaps the most important thing to remember is that Canada is now the most leveraged country in the G7.

According to a new report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) the household debt-to-income ratio is now a whopping 171% which means, for anyone who is confused, “that for every $100 in disposable income, households had debt obligations of $171.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of Canada faces key rate decision Wednesday: To cut or not?

January 19, 2016

Bank of Canada faces key rate decision Wednesday: To cut or not?

Economists have conflicting views on whether the central bank should cut its rate or hold steady

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is set to reveal the bank's latest decision on interest rates on Wednesday, and many economists say a rate cut could be in the offing.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is set to reveal the bank’s latest decision on interest rates on Wednesday, and many economists say a rate cut could be in the offing. (Ryan Remoritz/Canadian Press)

A year to the day after being surprised by a sudden rate cut, investors and mortgage holders will be anxiously waiting for the Bank of Canada’s next decision on interest rates.

A little after 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz will reveal the bank’s latest decision on interest rates. The bank can choose to raise its benchmark rate, known as the target for the overnight rate, from its current level of 0.5 per cent, lower it, or keep it the same.

Technically, all the bank’s rate does is govern the amount that retail banks charge each other for short-term loans. But it also filters down to impact the rates that borrowers and savers get for mortgages and savings accounts at commercial banks.

Broadly speaking, the bank opts to cut its rate when it wants to juice the economy by encouraging spending and investment, and it raises its rate when it wants to pump the brakes on inflation and cool down an overheated economy.

The bank’s rate decisions are always closely watched because they have such a direct impact on the real economy. But this decision will be of particular interest, since there’s growing fear the economic uncertainty of 2015 has morphed into full-blown crisis in 2016, with oil below $30 and the loonie below 70 cents US.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada Rebels against the Destruction of the Loonie

January 19, 2016

Canada Rebels against the Destruction of the Loonie

The fear of “currency instability.”

“Without precedent” — that’s what National Bank of Canada’s chief economist Stéfane Marion called the wholesale destruction of the loonie.

The Canadian dollar is in a tailspin. Rarely has it tumbled so far so fast, and against so many currencies. The steepness of the CAD’s depreciation against the USD is without precedent, -33%, or 3.5 standard deviations, in 24 months.

In the two weeks so far this year, the loonie has dropped 5.8% against the euro, 5.3% against the greenback, and 8.6% against the yen. “Even the likes of Norway (+5.4% against the CAD) and Sweden (+3.9%) are mocking the once-mighty Canadian dollar,” Marion wrote in the note. “Australia and New Zealand? Not to worry, they are also gaining ground against the CAD.”

The Canadian dollar plunged to a fresh 13-year low last week and hasn’t recovered since, hovering at US$0.688, below $0.70 for the first time since spring 2003.

People are getting alarmed. A lot of consumer goods are imported, including 81% of fruits and vegetables. The plunging loonie makes them more expensive for Canadians: meat prices rose 5% last year, fruits 9%, vegetables 10%. The average household ended up spending C$325 more for food in 2015 than in 2014, according to the Food Price Report. And it’s likely to get worse.

When Stephen Poloz became governor of the Bank of Canada in 2013, he set out to hammer down the Canadian dollar. In 2015, he redoubled his efforts. He relied on ceaseless jawboning. He even invoked the absurdity of negative interest rates. And he cut the overnight rate twice, the infamous surprise cut in January and the telegraphed cut in July, at a time when the Fed was flip-flopping about raising rates.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian Stocks in Bear Market, Loonie Swoons, Crude Crashes to $16, Consumer & Business Confidence Dives…

January 13, 2016

Canadian Stocks in Bear Market, Loonie Swoons, Crude Crashes to $16, Consumer & Business Confidence Dives…

“Investment and hiring intentions lowest since 2009”: Bank of Canada

Since Christmas Eve, the Toronto Stock Exchange index has dropped every single day, 10 trading days in a row, including so far today as I’m writing this, the longest losing streak since 2002. Now at 12,210, it’s down 21% from its 52-week high, set on April 17, and thus in bear market purgatory.

Beaten down energy producers, at about 20% of the index, have had a big impact. But the problems are broader. Among the standouts is the must-own, super-growth, TSX mega-cap Valeant, whose shares have plunged 65% from their 52-week high.

The Canadian dollar just dropped below US$0.70 for the first time since spring 2003, to US$0.6996. It now takes C$1.43 to buy a US dollar, up from about parity in 2011, 2012, and much of 2013. That year, Stephen Poloz became governor of the Bank of Canada. His solution was to demolish the currency. So he took it down 28% against the US dollar, with a big supporting hand from the collapsing prices of the commodities that Canada exports. Oil joined them in mid-2014.

The US benchmark WTI is trading just above $30 a barrel. Pundits at major investment banks have their eyes set on $20. Doom-and-gloomers see $10.

Canadian producers aren’t so lucky. Alberta’s heavy crude blend, Western Canada Select, plunged 30% so far this year, and on Monday hit US$16.51 a barrel, according to PSAC. “Lowest close on record,” according to the Globe and Mail.

Canadian producers are already experiencing what doom-and-gloomers are predicting for WTI. The swoon of the Canadian dollar is in part a reflection of this. Poloz is patting himself on the back. He sees benefits for big exporters outside the resource sector, such as auto manufacturing plants and component suppliers to the US auto industry that compete with Mexico.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada’s job recovery will reflect growing divergence between resource and export sectors: Don Pittis

January 8, 2016

Canada’s job recovery will reflect growing divergence between resource and export sectors: Don Pittis

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says rebuilding Canadian economy might be a 5-year healing process

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says the country is on track for slow job growth. But also expect a growing divergence between a weakening resource sector and a slowly recovering export economy.

“The chart between oil and the Canadian dollar looks like a pair of train tracks,” said Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz in Ottawa Thursday.

As Poloz was speaking, fears of a meltdown in China, one of the world’s biggest resource consumers, was sending Canada’s commodities-heavy stock index to a bear market close.

The governor’s folksy description of oil and loonie plunging in perfect parallel was in sharp contrast to what he sees as the result of that plunge: a sharp divergence, not just between the U.S. and Canadian economies but between Canada’s shrinking oil and resources sector and a recovery in other parts of the economy.

That double divergence is expected to show up in the jobs market — and the recovery won’t be quick.

Despite the new gloom that accompanied the global market tumble, Poloz said, there is already evidence of what he called a “solid U.S. economic expansion.” This week, an independent payroll survey showed the private sector created 257,000 jobs in December, the most in 12 months.

Growing gap

U.S. economists are forecasting that Friday’s job numbers will show 200,000 new jobs created in December and are predicting unemployment will stay at a low five per cent — whereas Canada’s unemployment rate lingers around seven per cent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stephen Poloz discusses impact of opposing U.S., Canadian monetary policies

January 7, 2016

Stephen Poloz discusses impact of opposing U.S., Canadian monetary policies

Central bank will ‘continue to run an independent monetary policy, anchored by our inflation target of 2%’

Stephen Poloz cut the Bank of Canada's benchmark interest rate twice last year.

Stephen Poloz cut the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate twice last year.

The Bank of Canada sent a strong signal today that it is content to allow the weak Canadian dollar to stay low.

Bank governor Stephen Poloz says he won’t try to match recent interest rate increases in the U.S., but will “continue to run an independent monetary policy, anchored by our inflation target of two per cent.”

Canada twice cut its benchmark interest rate in 2015 in an attempt to stimulate the economy. The U.S., meanwhile, finally hiked its rate in December after six years at record lows.

Normally, the two countries have monetary policies that move in broadly similar directions. But the U.S. hiking of rate as Canada cuts them — a phenomenon known as “divergence” — could have unexpected consequences, especially for the loonie which lost 16 per cent of its value last year while the two central banks were moving in opposite direction.

In a speech at Ottawa City Hall, Poloz explained that the weak loonie is the result of weak prices for Canada’s commodities, particularly oil.

“It is not a coincidence that the Canadian dollar is about where it was back in 2003 and 2004,” Poloz said. “Oil prices are also about where they were back then.

“The depreciation of our currency is a natural part of the process.”

Following the speech, he bristled at the suggestion during a media Q&A that he was “cheerleading” the loonie’s decline.

“It’s not something to cheer for,” he said. “We would of course prefer oil prices to be a little higher.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Household debt still rising, but most Canadians in decent shape: experts

December 30, 2015

Household debt still rising, but most Canadians in decent shape: experts

Bank of Canada worries some Canadian households may be over their heads

Most Canadians handle debt well, but a small minority have so much, they might everntually be in trouble.

Most Canadians handle debt well, but a small minority have so much, they might everntually be in trouble. (CBC)

Canadian households will close out 2015 carrying thicker layers of debt after worrisome gains over the past 12 months — extra padding that’s expected to get even fatter in the new year.

But even with the borrowing binges, many experts still believe the finances of most Canadians remain in decent shape.

This assessment comes as the country shows worrisome signs linked to consumer spending. It has a record-high debt-to-income ratio and the central bank has called rising household debt as a growing weak spot in Canada’s entire financial system.

One big bank economist, who has closely studied household debt, said any negative fallout from the debt situation would likely depend on whether Canada sustains an unlikely economic shock.

But trouble could also hinge on how quickly interest rates eventually rise, said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal.

Low rates helped build debt

Economic shocks remain difficult to predict and, for at least the next year, Tal doesn’t expect rates to climb at a hazardous speed for those who may have overindulged on debt.

“As a society, there is no question that we are more sensitive to the risk of higher interest rates than in any other time in history,” Tal said. “On its way up, it’s extremely powerful.”

Persistently low interest rates have been a major contributor to rising household debt. Borrowing became even cheaper in 2015 after the Bank of Canada twice dropped its benchmark rate to help cushion the blow of the oil slump.

Households, meanwhile, have dined on debt since the financial crisis and provided spending that has helped the economy recover.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of Canada says housing, debt threaten financial system

December 24, 2015

Bank of Canada says housing, debt threaten financial system

Central bank releases financial system review that focuses on small group of highly indebted people

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz told a news conference on Tuesday that the bank is watching a small group of Canadian households that are highly indebted.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz told a news conference on Tuesday that the bank is watching a small group of Canadian households that are highly indebted. (CBC)

Household indebtedness and imbalance in the housing sector are key vulnerabilities to Canada’s financial sector, the Bank of Canada says in a financial system review.

Specifically, the central bank is worried about young people who have taken on high levels of debt so they can buy homes in expensive markets.

The number of households with debt-to-income ratios of 350 per cent and above — considered highly indebted households — has doubled in the past 10 years to eight per cent of the population, the bank said.

About 80 to 87 per cent of the debt is from mortgages, it said. Many of these overburdened homeowners are in markets in Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta where house prices have escalated.

“Income growth hasn’t kept pace with the growth of borrowing, as house prices have continued to rise in these markets,” Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said in a news conference in Ottawa.

A handful in trouble

“There is a not only more of these households, but they also carry a larger portion of household debt.”

He estimated there are about 720,000 such highly indebted households in Canada, and they are a concern because they are concentrated in pockets.

Debt and housing are the same problems flagged in last financial system review six months ago, but the vulnerabilities are “edging higher,” Poloz said.

The risk to these households is an economic downturn that could result in widespread job loss, the bank said.

“Household vulnerabilities could be exacerbated by a severe recession that is accompanied by a widespread and prolonged rise in unemployment,” the central bank said in a news release.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian dollar tumbles to close below 72 cents US

December 18, 2015

Canadian dollar tumbles to close below 72 cents US

Oil slips below $35 US amid continuing strength of U.S. dollar

Some analysts say the loonie could eventually fall to 70 cents US as the currency is pressured by low commodity prices, and the diverging interest rate policies of Canada and the United States.

Some analysts say the loonie could eventually fall to 70 cents US as the currency is pressured by low commodity prices, and the diverging interest rate policies of Canada and the United States. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

UPDATED

Loonie has lost 17% of its value in 2015, the second-worst year it’s ever had

The Canadian dollar continued its slide today, closing below the 72-cent US mark for the first time since the spring of 2004.

The loonie ended the trading day at 71.68 cents US, down more than four-fifths of a cent from its close Wednesday. At one point during the day, it was down more than a full cent.

Put another way, it now costs almost $1.40 Cdn at official exchange rates to buy a single U.S. dollar. Tack on service fees charged by banks and anyone buying American currency at their local financial institution will end up paying $1.43 or so.

The loonie is on track to post its second-worst year ever, down 17 per cent since Jan. 1, and there’s still a week to go, Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter noted Thursday. “The only bigger annual decline was in the extreme conditions of 2008, when the Canadian dollar fell 18.6 per cent — a threshold I thought would never even be approached again,” Porter said.

Several factors

The dollar’s drop has been fuelled by several factors, including the continuing slide in oil prices, and the diverging monetary policies of Canada and the United States.

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday began raising its key lending rate for the first time in nearly 10 years, while the Bank of Canada has indicated it’s in no hurry to follow suit. Some analysts say the Bank of Canada may have to lower rates to jump start the economy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Next Domino: CANADA

December 13, 2015

The Next Domino: CANADA

The Federal Reserve has kept its zero interest rate policy (‘ZIRP’) for several years (and much longer than originally anticipated) whilst the European Central Bank seems to be getting serious about doing ‘better’ and has now reduced the deposit rate at the ECB to -0.30%. It’s already remarkable a central bank doesn’t seem to have any problem to reduce interest rates into the negative territory, but now Canada is considering making the same step as well.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Even though Canada’s benchmark interest rate is still relatively ‘high’ at 0.5%, the governor of the Central Bank of Canada has now hinted at a negative interest rate as well. That’s interesting, but not really surprising when you look at the current situation of the mining sector and the oil and gas sector, which have been important backbones of the Canadian economy for quite a while.

The gold and copper price aren’t really giving mining companies a lot of hope and not only have the corporate tax payments from the sector been reduced, several mines have announced layoffs, reducing the employment rate in Canada. That’s tough luck, but the oil and gas sector might be in an even worse shape, and especially the province of Alberta will be in for a lot of pain in 2016 (and we would honestly be extremely surprised if the GDP in Alberta would increase ). Unfortunately this will create a ripple-effect throughout the entire Canadian economy and the Toronto Stock Exchange has lost 17.5% since April of this year which is more than three times as much as the loss of the Dow Jones Index in the same time frame.

Source: stockcharts.com

Just have a look at the oil and gas price, and it shouldn’t surprise you the majority of the oil and gas producers is ‘underwater’ and won’t generate a profit this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of Canada Crushes Loonie, Creates Mother of All Shorts

December 12, 2015

Bank of Canada Crushes Loonie, Creates Mother of All Shorts

Clear winners: rich Chinese who buy homes in Canada.

The Canadian dollar swooned 1% against the US dollar on Friday, to US$0.7270, after having gotten hammered for the past six of seven trading days. It’s down 5% in November so far, 15.5% year-to-date, and 31% from its post-Financial Crisis peak of $1.06 in April 2011. It hit the lowest level since June 2004.

The commodities rout would have been bad enough. Given the importance of commodities to the Canadian economy, the multi-year decline in the prices of metals, minerals, and natural gas, and then starting in mid-2014, the devastating plunge of the price of oil, would have been sufficient in driving down the loonie.

That the Fed has tapered QE out of existence last year and has been waffling and flip-flopping about rate hikes ever since made the until then beaten-down US dollar, at the time the most despised currency in the universe, less despicable – at the expense of the loonie.

Those factors would have been enough to knock down the loonie. But it wasn’t enough, not for the ambitious Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz. The man’s got a plan.

He is in an all-out currency war. He’s out to crush the loonie beyond what other forces are already accomplishing. He’s out to pulverize it, and no one knows how far he’ll go, or where he’ll stop, or if he’ll ever stop. He has singlehandedly created the short of a lifetime.

It should spook every Canadian with income and assets denominated in Canadian dollars and those wanting to buy a home in Canada (we’ll get to that bitter irony in a moment).

Poloz has been in office since June 2013, and this is what he has accomplished so far:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stephen Poloz Considers Negative Interest Rates

December 10, 2015

Stephen Poloz Considers Negative Interest Rates

Price controls on interest rates are the latest fad.

A 100-year-trend that’s picked up steam in the last 15 years, where central banks have been confident enough to blatantly ignore the supply and demand for loans and keep rates as low as possible.

How low can you go?

For Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, it’s below zero.

In a four-page pamphlet, the BoC makes its case for negative interest rates because, “the nominal return for holding currency is negative, due to storage, transportation, insurance and other costs associated with securing and storing bank notes, particularly in large quantities. These costs make it possible for nominal interest rates to fall somewhat below zero.”

Poloz makes it sound inevitable.

In his worldview, interest rates are like playing with the shower faucet. Sometimes too much water is coming out, sometimes it’s not enough. Sometimes the water is too hot, sometimes it’s too cold.

It is the Bank of Canada’s job, so goes the thinking, to regulate this flow of water as to “promote the economic and financial well-being of Canada,” or even more hilarious, “to preserve the value of money by keeping inflation low and stable.”

That’s not what interest rates are for.

Interest rates coordinate production and consumption decisions over time. Some sectors are more sensitive to rates than others.

If interest rates rise, people won’t spend less in general. They will spend less on particular things, most likely real estate.

Low oil prices and a “weak” loonie (73 cents to the American dollar at the time of this writing) are not the fault of some mysterious force in capitalism.

It is the belief of central banks and governments that cutting rates is a fine way to get oneself out of an economic recession.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada Just Warned That Negative Interest Rates Are Coming

December 8, 2015

Canada Just Warned That Negative Interest Rates Are Coming

Moments ago, the Bank of Canada’s chief finally said what we had been patiently waiting for over the past several months: admission that Europe’s experiment with negative rates is about to cross the Atlantic. From Market News:

BOC POLOZ: NOW SEES EFFECTIVE LOWER BOUND FOR POLICY RATE AROUND -0.5%
BOC POLOZ: CANADN FIN MKTS COULD FUNCTION IN A NEG INT RATE ENVRIONMNT
BOC POLOZ: ‘SHOULD THE NEED ARISE’ FOR UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY, ‘WE’LL BE READY’

That, as they say, is “forward guidance” of what is coming.

And what is coming, is also precisely what Keith Dicker from IceCap Asset Management said in his latest monthly letter, would happen in Canada in the very near future. To wit:

Canada

Now that the election is over, the new government can quickly get down to work to missing all of their economic forecasts and budgets.

IceCap is apolitical – we support neither the left, the center or the right. Instead, we see the world with our global goggles and can confirm that despite any and all economic policies from the new (or old) government – the Canadian economy will continue it’s downward trend.

This negative outlook for Canada isn’t driven by an insular view or perspective. Rather, the global trend is downward. The economic and monetary foundation for the global economy has shifted and this is the reason for our downward view for the Great White North.
During the election campaign, we shared this view with the eventual winning party. The response was a slow yawn and disapproving look which suggested either we didn’t know what we were talking about or they were not really interested in our answer to their question.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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