If you happen to be a Game of Thrones fan, you know the Stark Family motto: “Winter is coming.” It’s inevitable and sometimes dangerous. Many parts of the US will experience an active winter season, with everything from snow, rain, and wintery mixes in store. While winter isn’t technically here yet, the first storm of the year can sneak up on you. Now is the time to double-check your preparations and be certain that you are ready for anything, well before the first snowflake falls.
Many of us spend far more of our waking hours away from home, busy with work, school, or chauffeuring our kids to their various activities. Because of this, a vehicle emergency kit is vital. In recent winters, there were two notable situations during which a well-stocked kit would have been beneficial. During one scenario, a freak snowstorm struck the Atlanta, Georgia area. Because weather like this is such a rarity, the area was completely unprepared, officials didn’t have the experience or equipment needed to deal with it, and traffic gridlocked almost immediately. Hundreds of people were stranded as the freeway turned into a scene reminiscent of The Walking Dead, with bumper-to-bumper vehicles at a standstill. Those without food and water in their vehicles went hungry, and many people ran out of gas as they tried to keep warm. No matter how comfortable you are with winter driving, in a situation like this, you are at the mercy of others who may not be so experienced.
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Several major snowstorms are expected to dump heavy snow across the Rockies, the Plains, and into the Midwest this week as cold Arctic air blankets those regions in the last days of October.
The potential for cold into November? It’s complicated.
In today’s midday updates, we break down the importance of high latitude blocking and what we can expect in a critical month ahead. http://empireweather.com #natgas#energy#agwx
The Weather Channel is reporting “a southward plunge of the jet stream from the Rockies into the central US has entrenched a pipeline of arctic air over those regions. Two weather systems tapping into that cold air are producing snowfall as they track from the Rockies to the Plains and into Midwest.”
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued winter weather alerts across the northern and central Rockies and central High Plains.
Denver-Boulder corridor, located in northern Colorado, has been placed under a winter storm warning through Wednesday morning. The region could see 6 to 12 inches of snow on through Tuesday night.
From Tuesday evening into Wednesday, snow will be seen in the Central Plains, Midwest, and the Rockies.
The Weather Channel said an area of low pressure will form near the Great Lakes on Thursday, could produce the first accumulating snow for northeastern Missouri into eastern Iowa, western and northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin.
With a plunge in the jetstream, Central and Midwest heating degree day (HDD) indexes, a measurement designed to quantify the demand for heating a building, have moved above trend through the end of the month into the first week of November.
A similar pattern in HDD is also seen in the lower-48, suggests that energy demand is increasing as the winter season begins.
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Farmers in the middle of the country are about to get hit by what could potentially be the worst October blizzard in U.S. history. According to USA Today, “the massive size and intensity of this snowstorm is unheard of for October”. In other words, we have never seen anything like this in the month of October ever before. Such a storm would have been disastrous enough in a normal year, but this has definitely not been a normal year for Midwest farmers. As I detailed extensively in previous articles, endless rain and horrific flooding made planting season a complete and utter nightmare for many Midwest farmers this year. Millions of acres did not get planted at all, and planting was seriously delayed on tens of millions of other acres. As a result, corn, soybeans and other crops are simply not ready to be harvested in many parts of the Midwest, and now an unprecedented winter storm is barreling directly toward our heartland.
This is a very, very serious situation. Normally, most corn in the Dakotas and Minnesota is considered to be “mature” by now, but this year we are facing a completely different scenario.
According to the latest USDA Crop Progress Report, only 22 percent of the corn in North Dakota is considered to be “mature” at this point…
Many farmers continue to wait on the sidelines to get into the fields. With freezing temperatures, heavy snowfall, and high winds set to hit the northern Plains this week, the corn in North Dakota is only 22% mature vs. a 75% five-year average, according to Monday’s USDA Crop Progress Report.
Also, South Dakota corn is rated 36% mature vs. an 80% five-year average. Minnesota farmers have a corn crop that is just 39% mature vs. an 83% five-year average.
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A powerful winter storm is forecasted “to intensify explosively” in the southwest US on Tuesday into Wednesday, unleashing a wide array of life-threatening weather hazards for tens of millions of Americans, reported Axios.
The impact area is expected from North Texas through the Dakotas and Minnesota is expected to be hit the hardest. The storm will likely qualify as a meteorological “bomb” — short for bombogenesis, which describes storms whose central pressure drops 24 millibars in 24 hours. The lower the pressure and the quicker it drops, the more powerful the storm. This could be one for the record books.
“A strong storm is poised to rapidly develop across the Plains this week, meeting “bomb” criteria (deepening of 24mb or more in 24 hours).
This will spread heavy rains, thunderstorms, and flooding risks into the central Plains into Wednesday, then spread snow into the Dakotas later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
This storm is particularly strong for this time of year in this part of the world. Data suggests this storm will be the strongest (via minimum central pressure) storm since at least 1979 to impact the central Plains. With a central pressure equivalent to that of a category 2 hurricane, wind, rain, and snow will all be threats.
This will spark heightened wind generation in the southern Plains, and combined with melting snowpack, offer significant flooding risks across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will halt any progress farmers were making toward fieldwork in this part of the country,” Meteorologist and owner of Empire Weather LLC., Ed Vallee.
The bombogenesis will detonate over Central Plains and bring almost every weather hazard possible at once. Severe thunderstorms are expected to hit south Texas to eastern Nebraska on Wednesday, which includes the potential for tornadoes.
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Just when Zerohedge readers thought it was time for spring, old man winter has a few more tricks up his sleeve. New weather models show several storms will affect the Northeast over the weekend.
The storm system that brought severe weather from California to the Midwest is beginning to shift and could threaten Mid-Alantic and Northeast cities with snow, ice, and rain by this weekend.
Winter Storm Ryan will begin along the West Coast by late Friday, then move across Rockies, Plains, Ohio Valley and Northeast through the weekend.
Winter storm watches have been published for California’s Sierra, Central Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, where the weather is expected to deteriorate in the next 24 to 48 hours.
The storm is expected to impact the Northeast late Sunday into early Monday.
“The exact track of that storm and magnitude of the lingering cold air in its path will determine the extent and intensity of snow, ice and rain in the Eastern states from Sunday to early Monday,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Travis.
Here are the scenarios at play
If Winter Storm Ryan takes a northeastward route toward the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic coast as Travis believes (scenario 1), 4 to 8 inches of snow may fall from central Plains to the northern part of the Ohio Valley, the eastern Great Lakes, the Allegheny and Pocono mountains in Pennsylvania and northern New England.
This shift eastward would allow the bulk of the snow to fall in Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and perhaps Boston. Such a path could result in significant travel disruptions Monday.
A new wave of Arctic air expected
Despite Winter Storm Ryan’s track, a significant blast of Arctic air is inbound for Northeast and Midwest.
High winds will follow the leading edge of the Arctic air.
Gusts between 40 and 55 mph are expected over the Upper Midwest and 30 and 45 mph in the Northeast.
AccuWeather said the blend of wind and falling temperatures would send RealFeel® Temperatures well below zero over the Upper Midwest, Mid-Alantic and Northeast.
Vancouver, where it rarely snows, has had five snow storms this year. It has even been reported that snow has fallen in Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Now that is an extremely rare event by itself in addition to Vancouver.
The winter cold has been severe this year. It appears that we are heading toward this trend in the next 8.6-year cycle if we see this unfold again next year. Given the outlook for food prices into 2024, something just does not look normal on the economic front.
Meanwhile, it is now official. February has been the COLDEST month in 83 years! The global climate pattern is now transitioning from a global warming cycle, which peaked in 1998 on a long-term basis and 2015 on a short-term basis, to a global cooling long-term and short-term cycle. Both the Arctic and Antarctic entered the next global cooling cycle in 2015 and have been dramatically cooling during the past 3 years. In the UK, according to the Central England Temperature (CET), a record of monthly mean temperatures dating back to 1659, December 1890 was marginally colder, with a mean of -0.8°C. The data is available that demonstrates this is a cycle and it predates the Industrial Revolution.
In Arizona, the temperatures have broken even a 122-year previous record low.
Road conditions and extreme cold making it hard for trucks to deliver gas
Drivers in Toronto are having a hard time finding gas this week thanks to a stretch of heavy snow and bitterly cold temperatures. (The Associated Press)7 comments
After a week of snow, wind and bitter cold, Old Man Winter is now making life hard for Torontonians at the gas pumps.
Dozens of stations around the city have been out of fuel for days, leaving drivers confused and in the lurch.
Suppliers say the bad weather has made it hard to deliver fuel to the empty stations, though none have said when the stations will be up and running as usual.
“Poor weather conditions in the GTA has impacted our delivery schedule. We are working to replenish the sites as quickly as we can, while ensuring the safety of our people,” wrote Nicole Fisher, a spokesperson for Suncor Energy.
“This is an industry issue caused by poor road conditions and extreme cold,” said Kristen Schmidt of Shell Canada.
Dan McTeague, a senior petroleum analyst with GasBuddy, is advising drivers to avoid filling up unless they have to. He also thinks the crunch will be over soon.
“You’re likely to see by midpoint next week, this really won’t be much of an issue,” he told CBC Toronto.
“There’s no shortage at refineries, there’s no shortage at the terminal, the pipelines are working quite well. It’s the truck transportation and the logistics around that,” he added.
Residents in central Minnesota braving a historic cold snap of minus 21 degree s are being urged to turn down their thermostats and reduce how much natural gas they use, according to CBS Minnesota. The announcement by Xcel Energy is due to the extreme weather conditions which have put a “significant” strain on their natural gas infrastructure.
“We need those in Becker, Big Lake, Chisago City, Lindstrom, Princeton, and Isanti to reduce use of natural gas. Until further notice, you are urged to turn down your thermostat to 60 degrees or lower and avoid the use of other natural gas appliances including hot water,” reads a statement by the utility.
The warning comes after a Tuesday interruption in natural gas at around 10:30 p.m. in Princeton, leaving around 290 customers without gas service. The company expects to restore service on Thursday, and has rented hotel rooms for impacted customers until then.
6;30am Wind Chills … The scientific term for this is “AAAAAAAiiiiAIAIAII COLD!!!!” … coldest wind chills in the Twin Cities in DECADES #WeatherOnThe9s@FOX9
Xcel Energy has established a command center at AmericInn in Princeton, and will be sending licensed plumbers to protect plumbing while service is being restored, according to CBS Minnesota.
Meanwhile, power was restored to over 7,000 metro-area Minnesotans after power went out Tuesday evening. The outage was blamed on equipment failures on power poles.
Wind chills in the region will remain in the 35 to 50 below zero range Wednesday afternoon, while the air temperature is expected to drop to around 30 below overnight. According to the National Weather Service, this is a life-threatening situation for those spending any prolonged period outdoors without proper clothing. A wind chill warning remains in effect until 9 a.m. on Thursday. Of note, frostbite is possible in less than five minutes of exposure.
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It could be warmer above the Arctic Circle than in Chicago by Wednesday, with Bloomberg reporting that temperatures are forecast to fall in the Windy City to 20-to-25 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (minus-29 to minus-32 Celsius).
“That is pretty amazing,” said Brian Hurley, a senior branch forecaster at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.
Amazing indeed, as Mike Shedlock notes,Chicago could see its lowest daily ‘high’ temp ever as polar air causes dangerous travel conditions and freezes pipes.
Surges of cold polar air are blasting the Midwest with the lowest temperatures in years, set to last until the end of the week. Temperatures in Chicago could drop to minus 20 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 29 Celsius) for the first time since the mid-1990s.
“I cannot stress how dangerously cold it will be,” said Mike Doll, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather. “An entire generation has gone by without experiencing this type of cold in the Chicago area.”
The National Weather Service said a “potentially record-breaking push” of Arctic air will bring wind chills as low as minus 40 degrees to the Northern Plains and Great Lakes areas by Wednesday. That’s the day Chicago is forecast to see its lowest daily high temperature ever — minus 12, beating the record of minus 11 set in 1994.
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The coldest air of the year and possibly the Winter 2018-2019 season has descended southward toward the East Coast, can create life-threatening situations for those who lose power and cannot heat their homes.
Wind chill warnings and advisories have been posted by the National Weather Service from the Midwest into the mid-Atlantic, upstate New York and New England.
“After a strong winter storm impacted the East this weekend, cold air has spilled in behind this system. Temperatures Monday morning were in the single digits above and below zero across New England with teens above zero as far south as North Carolina. This, combined with gusty winds is making it feel even colder. As such, wind chill advisories and wind chill warnings are in effect across the Northeast as it will feel below zero through the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. This will have an impact on the ski resort industry, with some mountains electing to close due to the adverse weather conditions,” reported Meteorologist and owner of Empire Weather LLC., Ed Vallee.
Wind chills were below zero Monday morning in New York City, Boston, and Philadelphia. Interior locations such as Buffalo, New York, and Burlington, Vermont also experienced wind chills in the 20s below zero.
Subzero wind chills were even reported as far south as Asheville, North Carolina.
Monday’s highs are likely to hold the low teens along the Interstate 95 corridor that stretches from the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area to Boston.
Although this arctic blast is expected to only last until late Tuesday in most locations, it signals the start of frigid conditions to end the month for the Northeast.
NOAA’s 6- to 10-day weather model illustrates portions of the central and eastern states are expected to see below-average temperatures Jan. 26 to Jan. 30.
Models are also indicating that the next shot of arctic air could arrive into the Midwest starting late this week.
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China is also experiencing the coldest day record during December 6 below zero C. Snow is falling in Beijing to Shanghai. It has been in the 70s in Abu Dhabi and in Tampa Florida, so the cold is dipping lower and lower across the planet. Temperatures in China have been held under 4 below zero C on only seven December days since 2000. This is the coldest on record so far. The real question becomes when will people start noticing that the summers are dry and short with the winters getting colder?
A significant and possibly “historic” winter storm is pounding North Carolina to central and southern Virginia with heavy snowfall will bring the likelihood of widespread power outages and travel disruptions into early next week.
AccuWeather meteorologists forecast the heaviest snowfall is expected from the southern Appalachians into the western Piedmont of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Snowfall totals could range in the 12 to 18 inches range, especially in the mountains of North Carolina with the possibility of over two feet of snow.
Over 85,000 customers are without power in North Carolina, with around 35,000 people without power in northwestern South Carolina, according to poweroutage.us as of Sunday morning.
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Across the Northeast, Midwest, and Plains, it has been one of the coldest and snowiest starts to the winter season on record.
“Winter has gotten off to a fast start across a majority of the United States, particularly across the Northeast. Early season snow plagued I-95 in mid-November, bringing New York City it’s earliest 6” snowfall on record. Record cold blanketed the region on Thanksgiving, partly causing a rapid spike in natural gas prices. Cold also likely played a role in retail performance over the holiday weekend. While most see a reprieve from cold over the next 7 days, another blast of arctic air is expected later in the first week of December across the eastern U.S., which may further complicate energy market movement going forward,” said Ed Vallee, head meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting.
Central New York, the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area, and much of the Rust Belt have already reported one of the snowiest starts to November in decades.
According to the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) also known as the “Winter Misery Index” from the Midwest Regional Climate Center, 74 metro areas from New England to the Plains and Rockies have experienced cold and snow that generally would not occur until January.
AWSSI index computes the “intensity and persistence of cold weather, the frequency and amount of snow and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground (wind and mixed precipitation are not a part of the index),” the Midwest Regional Climate Center said.
The weather index uses five categories – mild, moderate, average, severe and extreme – to assess the severity of winter weather in a particular region.
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According to new weather models, the US mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions are expected to experience the coldest/earliest temperatures to the start of any winter season on record.
The culprit: a massive area of high pressure from the Arctic Circle will descend across Canada and into the Northeast, collapsing temperatures to life-threatening conditions ahead of Thanksgiving and into Black Friday.
“Very cold air will make its way into the Northeast just in time for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Most major cities along the I-95 corridor will rival coldest maximum temperatures for the date, including New York City, Boston, Providence, and Philadelphia. Most cities will run 20 to 25 degrees below average for late November, and combined with breezy conditions, will make for brutally cold “feels like” temperatures even colder than the air temperature. This will make for an interesting dilemma for shoppers on the fence about heading out for Black Friday, with temperatures Thursday night in the single digits and teens for most. With this increased cold risk, natural gas continues to be heavily influenced by weather model forecasts through the end of the month,” said Ed Vallee, head meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting.
The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) released new weather models that indicate the blast of arctic air could affect much of the mid-Atlantic and North East regions, threatening to keep America’s consuming herd indoors, crippling shopping intentions and keeping tens of millions of Americans away from their favorite retailer of choice.
NDFD Low Temperatures For Thanksgiving
“November is running more than 4°F below normal across the Lower 48. Unprecedented cold coming by Thanksgiving will turn this map dark purple across the Northeast,” said Ryan Maue of weathermodels.com.
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Layering your clothing is one of the best ways to stay warm. Anyone who works outside or has chores around the house to take care of in the winter months understands the importance of keeping the body warm so it can operate at optimal levels.
Layering your clothing comes with many benefits, including the ability to remove one or two items of clothing if you begin to feel a bit warm and overdressed. This makes you more prepared for any possible weather outcome, writes Mountain Warehouse. When you’re doing a combination of activities such as standing, walking, sitting, going outside and inside and back outside again, your body regulates its temperature very differently. This is ideal for people who do a lot of their chores outdoors! Layering allows you to be comfortable throughout the day as your body temperature and activity level change.
But just how does this technique work to keep a person warm? Layering clothing works by trapping warm air created by your own body heat in between the many layers of clothing. That trapped warm air acts like a layer of insulation for your body. Especially in winter, because that’s when it’s much colder, keeping your core warm is a key to good health, because this is the area that generates heat for your vital organs. Those organs need your body heat to function properly.
