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Empire of Chaos preparing for more fireworks in 2016

December 27, 2015

Empire of Chaos preparing for more fireworks in 2016

A F18 Super Hornet © Mark Wilson
A F18 Super Hornet © Mark Wilson / Reuters
In his seminal ‘Fall of Rome: And the End of Civilization,’ Bryan Ward-Perkins writes, “Romans before the fall were as certain as we are today that their world would continue forever… They were wrong. We would be wise not to repeat their complacency.”

The Empire of Chaos, today, is not about complacency. It’s about hubris – and fear. Ever since the start of the Cold War the crucial question has been who would control the great trading networks of Eurasia – or the “heartland”, according to Sir Halford John Mackinder (1861–1947), the father of geopolitics.

RT ✔@RT_com

Russia says Turkish leadership involved in illegal oil trade with http://on.rt.com/6y7b 

8:03 AM – 2 Dec 2015

We could say that for the Empire of Chaos, the game really started with the CIA-backed coup in Iran in 1953, when the US finally encountered, face to face, that famed Eurasia crisscrossed for centuries by the Silk Road(s), and set out to conquer them all.

Only six decades later, it’s clear there won’t be an American Silk Road in the 21st century, but rather, just like its ancient predecessor, a Chinese one. Beijing’s push for what it calls “One Belt, One Road” is inbuilt in the 21st century conflict between the declining empire and Eurasia integration. Key subplots include perennial NATO expansion and the empire’s obsession in creating a war zone out of the South China Sea.

As the Beijing-Moscow strategic partnership analyses it, the oligarchic elites who really run the Empire of Chaos are bent on the encirclement of Eurasia – considering they may be largely excluded from an integration process based on trade, commerce and advanced communication links.

Beijing and Moscow clearly identify provocation after provocation, coupled with relentless demonization. But they won’t be trapped, as they’re both playing a very long game.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Somebody Will Do Something Stupid

November 2, 2015

Somebody Will Do Something Stupid

Is it just me, or does it seem like we are moving inexorably towards a global confrontation? China claims some islands in the South China Sea and we attempt to provoke a military response by sending a US warship within 12 miles of the disputed islands. We accuse both China and Russia of cyber terrorism on a regular basis, even though we released the Stuxnet virus into the Iranian nuclear facilities and have used mass surveillance against people around the world, including allied leaders. We created ISIS as part of our grand strategy that included turning Iraq and Libya into lawless countries racked by civil war strife and religious zealotry. We created the Syrian refugee crisis by funding militants against Assad because Saudi Arabia and Qatar want to build a natural gas pipeline through Syria to Europe.

We led the overthrow of a democratically elected, Russian friendly, government in the Ukraine, and have continuously provoked Russia in their own backyard. We have covered up the true culprit in shooting down of the Malaysian airliner over the Ukraine. We have colluded with Saudi Arabia to drive the price of oil down in an attempt to destroy the economies of Iran, Argentina and Russia. Putin has now called our bluff and entered Syria in full force, bombing the shit out of ISIS and proving the US had no intention of defeating these terrorists, because our military industrial complex depends upon having an enemy to fight. Now Obama is placing US troops in the line of fire between Russia, Syria, Turkey, Iran, and ISIS.

Europe was already bankrupt, issues trillions in new debt to pay off the unpayable debt they already had. Now they are being overrun by Muslim hordes who will cause their societies to splinter and cause chaos, violence, and war.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China warns US against ‘minor’ incidents that could ‘spark war’

October 30, 2015

China warns US against ‘minor’ incidents that could ‘spark war’

© U.S. Navy
© U.S. Navy / Reuters

It’s On: Obama Sends Destroyer To Chinese Islands, China Vows Military Response

October 26, 2015

It’s On: Obama Sends Destroyer To Chinese Islands, China Vows Military Response

For anyone who might still be somehow unaware, the US is currently in a superpower staring match with both Russia and China. The conflict in Syria has put Moscow back on the geopolitical map (so to speak), creating an enormous amount of tension with Washington whose regional allies have been left to look on in horror as Russian airstrikes and an Iranian ground incursion dash hopes of ousting President Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, in The South China Sea, Beijing has built 3,000 acres of new sovereign territory atop reefs in the Spratlys and although the reclamation effort itself isn’t unique, the scope of it most certainly is and Washington’s friends in the South Pacific are crying foul.

Beijing has continually insisted that it doesn’t intend to use the islands as military outposts, but the construction of runways and ports seems to tell a different story and so, Washington felt compelled to check things out over the summer by sending a Poseidon spy plane complete with a CNN crew to the area. Once the PLA spotted the plane the situation escalated quickly with the Chinese Navy telling US pilots to “Go Now!”

After that, an intense war of words developed with Defense Secretary Ash Carter insisting that the US would sail and fly anywhere it pleased and Beijing assuring the US that sailing within 12 nautical miles of the islands would prompt a harsh response from the PLA.

For weeks, the US was rumored to have been planning a freedom of navigation exercise in the Spratlys which, as we’ve pointed out several times this month, amounts to sailing by the islands just to see if China will shoot.

Jim Sciutto 

✔@jimsciutto

Just in: @USNavy prepared to sail w/i 12mi of China’s manmade islands in “w/i 24hrs”, has POTUS approval -Def. Official

3:23 PM – 26 Oct 2015

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

With US Warships En Route To Islands, China Asks: “What On Earth Makes Them Think We Will Tolerate This?”

October 18, 2015

With US Warships En Route To Islands, China Asks: “What On Earth Makes Them Think We Will Tolerate This?”

The US is in a tough spot militarily.

In Syria, Russia and Iran have taken advantage of the fact that the plan hatched by the West and its regional allies to destabilize the Assad regime took far too long to develop. The idea was to foment discord and provide covert support for the various armed militias fighting to overthrow the government. But the effort is entering its fifth year and Assad is still there. Not only that, there have been a series of unintended (well, at least we hope they’re unintended) consequences. First, one of the rebel groups the West and its allies supported morphed into an insane band of white basketball shoe-wearing, black flag-waving, sword-wielding desert bandits. Second, the fighting created a horrific refugee crisis that now threatens to destabilize the whole of Europe. Sensing a historic geopolitical opportunity, Moscow and Tehran simply stepped in and outmaneuvered Washington. Now, the US basically has to decide whether it wants to go to war with Russia, because paradropping ammo into the middle of the desert isn’t going to be a viable strategy.

Meanwhile, the US faces another superpower confrontation in the South China Sea.

When Beijing began its land reclamation efforts in the Spratlys, we’re reasonably sure the Pentagon didn’t anticipate the extent to which the effort would quickly become a giant headache for Washington.

As a reminder, it’s not so much the dredging that has Washington’s regional allies in the South Pacific upset. Island building has been done before in the area. Rather, it’s the scope of the project that has everyone unnerved as Beijing has so far constructed over 3,000 acres of new sovereign territory atop which China has built everything from cement factories, to greenhouses, to runways. 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Obama Won’t Back Down After Chinese Threat, Sends U.S. Warships To Contested Islands In “Matter Of Days”

October 12, 2015

Obama Won’t Back Down After Chinese Threat, Sends U.S. Warships To Contested Islands In “Matter Of Days”

On Friday, we reported the latest provocation in what has truly become a very dangerous, if largely pointless, staring contest between Beijing and Washington over China’s reclamation of land in The South China Sea.

Responding to suggestions that the US was set to sail warships around the islands Beijing has constructed atop reefs in the Spratlys, China served noticed that it would “never allow any country to violate China’s territorial waters and airspace in the Spratly Islands, in the name of protecting freedom of navigation and overflight.” This was simply a formalized version of the more concise phrasing the PLA navy used when they instructed the pilots flying a US spy plane to “Go now!” when it ventured too close to Fiery Cross earlier this year.

It’s not immediately clear what China intends to do with the islands and further, it’s not entirely clear why anyone should necessarily care if Beijing wants to build “sand castles” in the middle of the ocean, but then again, for America’s regional allies the land reclamation efforts look a lot an attempt to build a series of military outposts by creating sovereign territory where there was none thereby effectively redrawing maritime boundaries and so, big brother in Washington is set to step in in order to protect vital shipping lanes.

Of course having already said that the navy plans to sail ships into the waters around the islands, the US can ill-afford to allow China’s “we won’t tolerate that” pronouncement to deter the Pentagon because the optics around that would be terrible at a time when the world is already questioning the strength and resolve of the US military. So the ships will indeed sail. Here’s WSJ:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Fine Balance: China’s Need for Resources and Stability in the South China Sea

July 8, 2015

A Fine Balance: China’s Need for Resources and Stability in the South China Sea

The shift in demographic and economic weight from Europe to East Asia has intensified over the past 20 years, which makes East Asia and its coastal areas increasingly important – a critical shift in current and future international relations dynamics underscored by the United States’ (US) “Pivot to Asia” or East Asian foreign policy of the Obama administration. Four Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, plus China/Taiwan either partially or fully claim sovereignty over the South China Sea and its territorial features: islands, reefs, and atolls. Given the importance of the South China Sea’s islands and sub-soils, we seek to assess whether a Chinese policy towards the South China Sea’s territorial disputes endangers regional stability and cooperation.

Economic and Strategic Importance of the Spratly Islands

China’s extensive borders, surrounded by sea and a rich diversity of neighbors, from large Russia, unstable Afghanistan, to maritime neighbors such as the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan, presents a host of security challenges. The South China Sea forms part of the complexity of China’s border security challenges. The following claimants surround the South China Sea: China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines. Territorial disputes contribute to regional volatility. The Sea is considered a flashpoint for conflict in the Asia Pacific Region. There are two groups of islands in the South China Sea: the Paracel and Spratly Islands. China, Taiwan, and Vietnam claim all of the Paracel and Spartly Islands, while Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei only claim parts of the Spratlys. Claims put forward by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam are historically based, whereas claims made by Malaysia and Brunei are based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLoS), the proximity principle, and the continental shelf principle. The Philippines’ claim is based on proclaimed discovery of unclaimed islands in 1956.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Island Building Reveals the True Power in Asia

June 22, 2015

China’s Island Building Reveals the True Power in Asia

 

chinaflag, cc Flickr, Nicolas RaymondChina’s land reclamation moves in the South China Sea may be cause for reproach, but no one will do a thing about Beijing’s island-building program beyond the huff and puff of objection.

While the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has been deliberating on the Philippines’ case against Chinese expansion into the Spratly Islands, China has stated that the results will have no bearing on its behavior, and has since reclaimed over 2,000 acres of land.

China continues to push the limits because it knows it can get away with its land grab, avoiding conflict or tarnishing any of its bilateral relations, even as the United States tries to vilify its eastern rival.

US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter remarked to the Shangri-La Dialogue Security Council in May that China risks miscalculation or conflict with its actions.

Adding to the litany of concerns, Malaysia’s defense minister warned of the potential for this flashpoint to escalate into one of the region and the world’s deadliest conflicts. Though tensions have risen in region making the Spratlys a potential flashpoint, China rarely lets its actions risk stability.

Pursuing its claims over the South China Sea – overstepping those of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia among others – is not the move of a bellicose nation poised for overt conquest. Instead it’s the cool calculation of a country with a penchant for stability and a keen eye for potential dangers; and it is this insidiousness that is most alarming.

There is justification in the international community’s concerns with China’s expansion in the South China Sea. Regional neighbors don’t want to live in the shadow of a growing hegemon who employs bully tactics and uses its economic clout against them. They therefore look to the Washington for help. It is also in the United States’ interest to hamper the ascendency of its eastern rival – BRICS, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the rise of the New Silk Road – to maintain its fleeting dominance in Asia.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Geopolitical Risks Are Climbing: Interstate Conflict Is Highest Risk In 2015

June 13, 2015

Geopolitical Risks Are Climbing: Interstate Conflict Is Highest Risk In 2015

Every year, the World Economic Forum publishes an annual report on global risks that covers the factors and underlying drivers that could most likely disrupt global economic activity. Most of the time over the last decade, the survey of 900 global experts finds the top risks to revolve between potential economic events such as collapsing asset prices and underemployment, or potential environmental challenges such as flooding or water supply crises.

However, this year geopolitical risks have made a staggering jump to the forefront, reflecting the instability in the Middle East and North Africa, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the rise of terrorist groups such as ISIS and Boko Haram, and even tension in the South China Sea.

 

The above graph shows the change over the course of the last year. Risks such as state collapse or crisis, interstate conflict, terrorist attacks, and weapons of mass destruction have all soared. In fact, within the overall scope of all potential risks, interstate conflict is now ranked as the #1 risk in terms of likelihood, and #4 in terms of impact.

“Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world again faces the risk of major conflict between states,” said Margareta Drzeniek-Hanouz, lead economist at the World Economic Forum.

 

“However, today the means to wage such conflict, whether through cyberattack, competition for resources or sanctions and other economic tools, is broader than ever. Addressing all these possible triggers and seeking to return the world to a path of partnership, rather than competition, should be a priority for leaders as we enter 2015.”

 

Source: VisualCapitalist.com

 

Why is Obama Goading China?

May 31, 2015

Why is Obama Goading China?

Pivot Insanity

US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is willing to risk a war with China in order to defend  “freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea. Speaking in Honolulu, Hawaii on Wednesday, Carter issued his “most forceful” warning yet, demanding “an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation” by China in the disputed Spratly Islands.

Carter said:   “There should be no mistake: The United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world.” He also added that the United States intended to remain “the principal security power in the Asia-Pacific for decades to come.”

In order to show Chinese leaders “who’s the boss”, Carter has threatened to deploy US warships and surveillance aircraft to within twelve miles of the islands that China claims are within their territorial waters. Not surprisingly, the US is challenging China under the provisions of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,  a document the US has stubbornly refused to ratify.  But that’s neither here nor there for the bellicose Carter whose insatiable appetite for confrontation makes him the most reckless Sec-Def since Donald Rumsfeld.

So what’s this really all about?  Why does Washington care so much about a couple hundred yards of sand piled up on reefs reefs in the South China Sea? What danger does that pose to US national security? And, haven’t Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines all engaged in similar “land reclamation” activities without raising hackles in DC?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

The US and China can avoid a collision course – if the US gives up its empire

May 30, 2015

The US and China can avoid a collision course – if the US gives up its empire

The problem isn’t China’s rise, but rather America’s insistence on maintaining military and economic dominance right in China’s backyard

To avoid a violent militaristic clash with China, or another cold war rivalry, the United States should pursue a simple solution: give up its empire.

Americans fear that China’s rapid economic growth will slowly translate into a more expansive and assertive foreign policy that will inevitably result in a war with the US. Harvard Professor Graham Allison has found: “in 12 of 16 cases in the past 500 years when a rising power challenged a ruling power, the outcome was war.” Chicago University scholar John Mearsheimer has bluntly argued: “China cannot rise peacefully.”

But the apparently looming conflict between the US and China is not because of China’s rise per se, but rather because the US insists on maintaining military and economic dominance among China’s neighbors. Although Americans like to think of their massive overseas military presence as a benign force that’s inherently stabilizing, Beijing certainly doesn’t see it that way.

According to political scientists Andrew Nathan and Andrew Scobell, Beijing sees America as “the most intrusive outside actor in China’s internal affairs, the guarantor of the status quo in Taiwan, the largest naval presence in the East China and South China seas, [and] the formal or informal military ally of many of China’s neighbors.” (All of which is true.) They think that the US “seeks to curtail China’s political influence and harm China’s interests” with a “militaristic, offense-minded, expansionist, and selfish” foreign policy.

China’s regional ambitions are not uniquely pernicious or aggressive, but they do overlap with America’s ambition to be the dominant power in its own region, and in every region of the world.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chinese State Paper Warns “War Will Be Inevitable” Unless U.S. Stops Meddling In Territorial Dispute

May 25, 2015

Chinese State Paper Warns “War Will Be Inevitable” Unless U.S. Stops Meddling In Territorial Dispute

Whereas over the past year, ever since the outbreak of the hostilities over the fate of Ukraine following the Victoria Nuland orchestrated presidential coup, relations between Russia and NATO have devolved to a Cold War 2.0 state as manifested by countless interceptions of Russian warplanes by NATO jets and vice versa as depicted in the following infographic…

… at least China was mercifully allowed to stay out of the fray between the Cold War enemies.

This all changed this month when first the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress this month cast China as a threat to regional and international peace and stability, followed several weeks ago when, with China aggressively encroaching into territories in the South China Sea claimed by US allies in the region such as Philippines, Vietnam and Japan, the US decided to get involved in yet another regional spat that does not directly involve it, and started making loud noises about China’s territorial expansion over the commodity-reach area.

China promptly relatiated by threatening a US spy plane during a routine overflight, while immediately thereafter the US retaliated at China’s escalation, and warned that building sea “sandcastles” could “lead to conflict.”

Far from shutting China up, earlier today China said it had lodged a complaint with the United States over a U.S. spy plane that flew over parts of the disputed South China Sea in a diplomatic row that has fuelled tension between the world’s two largest economies.

Quoted by Reuters, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on Monday China had lodged a complaint and that it opposed “provocative behaviour” by the United States.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Strongly Dissatisfied” China Warns US “Accident” Is “Highly Likely” In South China Sea

May 23, 2015

“Strongly Dissatisfied” China Warns US “Accident” Is “Highly Likely” In South China Sea

Things are escalating rapidly in the South China Sea where Beijing has figured out an innovative solution to the notion of “disputed waters.”

As regular readers are by now acutely aware, China appears to have adopted the maritime boundary equivalent of the old “possession is nine tenths of the law” axiom because Chinese dredgers have been busy for some time now creating islands out of reefs in the Spratly archipelago. Once the islands are complete, China promptly colonizes them. Next comes the construction of cement plants, ports, and 10,000 ft airstrips.

Not surprisingly, Washington isn’t fond of China’s “sandcastles” and everyone from President Obama to the Pentagon is now shouting from the rooftops about territorial sovereignty and Chinese “bullying.”

The US took it up a notch this week when it flew a spy plane over Fiery Cross Reef, presumably just to see what would happen. A CNN camera crew went along for the ride. What Washington discovered is that when it comes to protecting its new islands, bashful China is not.  “This is the Chinese Navy… YOU GO!” was the message that came over the radio.

The rhetoric and sabre rattling haven’t let up a bit since then and in fact, there’s been a steady stream of quotables from both sides over the past 48 hours. Here’s the latest.

Via Reuters:

The United States vowed on Thursday to keep up air and sea patrols in international waters after the Chinese navy repeatedly warned a U.S. surveillance plane to leave the airspace over artificial islands China is creating in the disputed South China Sea…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

 

US Retaliates At China Escalation, Warns Sea “Sandcastles” May “Lead To Conflict”

May 22, 2015

US Retaliates At China Escalation, Warns Sea “Sandcastles” May “Lead To Conflict”

On Wednesday we showed what happens when US spy planes carrying CNN reporters get too close to China’s land reclamation project in the South China Sea. In short, the Chinese Navy not-so-politely advises them to “Go now!”

China is working diligently to construct man-made islands atop reefs in the Spratly archipelago where Beijing shares disputed waters with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. For its part, Washington is none too pleased with the effort and in a fantastic example of ironic rhetoric and American hypocrisy, The White House is shouting about violations of territorial sovereignty and Chinese “bullying”.

The Pentagon meanwhile has said the US may consider confronting China in the region with surveillance aircraft (and CNN crews apparently) and war ships, a move China has gently advised against, telling Washington that it might be in everyone’s best interest if the US “refrains from risky and provocative actions,” and now, China looks to have conducted a practice bombing raid on Wednesday.

Via The South China Morning Post:

China’s air force sent a group of strategic bombers through the Miyako Strait south of Okinawa in a long-range drill for the first time yesterday as part of military exercises in the western Pacific.

The manoeuvre came as US-based CNN reported that the Chinese navy repeatedly warned a US surveillance plane to leave airspace over artificial islands that Beijing is building in the disputed South China Sea.

CNN reported that on Wednesday a Chinese navy dispatcher demanded eight times that a US Air Force P8-A Poseidon surveillance aircraft leave the area as it flew over Fiery Cross Reef, where China has conducted extensive reclamation work. The exercise and the warnings underscore growing tensions between the armed forces of China and the United States, and China’s neighbours.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

 

Science and Geopolitics Converging in the Troubled Waters of the South China Sea

May 19, 2015

Science and Geopolitics Converging in the Troubled Waters of the South China Sea

 

The South China Sea remains at the epicenter of one of the most volatile maritime areas in the world, with little or no agreement on sovereignty claims to the ownership of atolls, submerged banks, islands, reefs and rocks. Yet South China Sea fishermen, marine biologists, and policy shapers agree that without an end to unsustainable fishing practices and urgent adoption of environmental protection measures, a catastrophic marine biodiversity and fishery collapse is imminent.

Beijing’s accelerated land reclamation over these specks of rock in the roiling sea is increasing friction among other claimants like Vietnam and the Philippines. Moreover, the Chinese-directed Spratly Island building expansion on the Johnson, Cuarteron, and Gaven reefs wrecks rich fishing grounds and valuable coral reefs in the archipelago.

The daily dumping of landfill with sand dug from nearby reefs by Chinese laborers, “upsets the marine ecology of the region, completely destroying the formed coral reefs that are hundreds of millions years old. At the same time these actions destroy the habitat of many marine species. Protecting the marine ecological environment is a global issue and citizens all over the world are responsible for that,” claims Dr. Le Van Cuong, former director of the Institute for Strategy and Science and a recognized expert on the South China Sea.

Flashpoints continue in the Scarborough Shoals with critical potential at the Paracel Islands, (China occupied, Vietnam claimed). At this desolate rock formation of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), Chinese vessels violently ram Filipino fishermen boats and illegally remove endangered giant clams.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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