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The Global Run On Physical Cash Has Begun: Why It Pays To Panic First

The Global Run On Physical Cash Has Begun: Why It Pays To Panic First

Back in August 2012, when negative interest rates were still merely viewed as sheer monetary lunacy instead of pervasive global monetary reality that has pushed over $6 trillion in global bonds into negative yield territory, the NY Fed mused hypothetically about negative rates and wrote “Be Careful What You Wish For” saying that “if rates go negative, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing will likely be called upon to print a lot more currency as individuals and small businesses substitute cash for at least some of their bank balances.”

Well, maybe not… especially if physical currency is gradually phased out in favor of some digital currency “equivalent” as so many “erudite economists” and corporate media have suggested recently, for the simple reason that in a world of negative rates, physical currency – just like physical gold – provides a convenient loophole to the financial repression of keeping one’s savings in digital form in a bank where said savings are taxed at -0.1%, or -1% or -10% or more per year by a central bank and government both hoping to force consumers to spend instead of save.

For now cash is still legal, and NIRP – while a reality for the banks – has yet to be fully passed on to depositors.

The bigger problem is that in all countries that have launched NIRP, instead of forcing spending precisely the opposite has happened: as we showed last October, when Bank of America looked at savings patterns in European nations with NIRP, instead of facilitating spending, what has happened is precisely the opposite: “as the BIS have highlighted, ultra-low rates may perversely be driving a greater propensity for consumers to save as retirement income becomes more uncertain.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Satyajit Das: This Is Why You Can Expect Another Global Stock Market Meltdown

Satyajit Das: This Is Why You Can Expect Another Global Stock Market Meltdown

The mispricing of assets across world markets has reached epidemic proportions.

Stock prices have made strong advances over the past several years, yet market analysts see further gains, arguing that the selloffs of August 2015 and early 2016 represent a healthy correction.

But this rise in stock values has been underpinned by financial engineering and liquidity — setting the stage for a global financial crisis rivaling 2008 and early 2009.

The conditions for a crisis are now firmly established:overvaluation of financial assets; significant leverage; persistent low-growth and deflation; excessive risk taking reliant on central banks for liquidity, and the suppression of volatility.

Steve Blumenthal, CEO of CMG Capital Management Group, tells Barron’s funds writer Chris Dieterich that his firm has been clinging to ultra-safe bonds and utility stocks during the market storm.

For example, U.S. stock buybacks have reached 2007 levels and are running at around $500 billion annually. When dividends are included, companies are returning around $1 trillion annually to shareholders, close to 90% of earnings. Additional factors affecting share prices are mergers and acquisitions activity and also activist hedge funds, which have forced returns of capital or corporate restructures.

The major driver of stock prices is liquidity, in the form of zero interest rates and quantitative easing.

To be sure, stronger earnings have supported stocks. But on average, 70% to 80% of the improvement has come from cost-cutting, not revenue growth. Since mid-2014, corporate profit margins have stagnated and may even be declining.

A key factor is currency volatility. The strong U.S. dollar is pressuring American corporate earnings. A 10% rise in the value of the dollar equates to a 4%-5% percent decline in earnings. Rallies in European and Japanese stocks have been driven, in part, by the fall in the value of the euro and yen  respectively.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Signs of Mortgage Meltdown in Australia

Signs of Mortgage Meltdown in Australia

“Not a question of if but when there will be a mortgage crisis.”

Real estate is local – until it isn’t. Cities have their own housing bubbles that implode on their own time. But once contagion spreads to mortgages and banks and infects confidence of real estate investors and homebuyers alike, and once debt levels are so high that they have become unsustainable and can’t be pushed higher, then a real estate bubble suddenly becomes a national economic issue with terrible consequences.

In Australia, which has the highest household debt in the world, “homes are so expensive that nearly half of all mortgages are interest-only.” They’re offered by the biggest banks with loosey-goosey lending standards. And “that is a red flag for imminent disaster.”

“It’s not a question of if but when there will be a mortgage crisis in Australia,” explained Jonathan Tepper, CEO at research firm Variant Perception, on the local 60-Minutes segment, Home Groans, that aired in Australia on Sunday.

He’d predicted the mortgage meltdowns in the US, Ireland, and Spain. And the one word that best describes the Australian housing market? “Insane.”

The flood of interest-only mortgages with sky-high price-to-income ratios is “a sign of Ponzi financing,” he said. And banks are now heavily exposed to these mortgages and any downturn in prices.

The video clip also features a young investor who was named “Australian Property Investor of the Year” in 2012 by a real-estate hype organ, and who now faces bankruptcy. She marveled at just how “easy to get” money had been.

“Banks only look at the balance sheets and the numbers,” she said. “They don’t see the emotional toll they have on people, and they don’t understand the social costs of their business practices.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hungarian Central Bank Hoards 200,000 Bullets, Hundreds Of Guns Due To “Security Risks”

Hungarian Central Bank Hoards 200,000 Bullets, Hundreds Of Guns Due To “Security Risks”

If we learned anything last September it’s that Janet Yellen’s reaction function now includes domestic and global financial markets.

Well that, and we learned that Hungarian PM Viktor Orban isn’t playing around when it comes to Europe’s worsening refugee crisis. While everyone else in Europe was busy trying to figure out how to accommodate the millions of asylum seekers fleeing the war-torn Mid-East, Orban simply built a razor wire border fence.

And then he built another one.

And then, when migrants tried to breach his barriers, he met them with water cannons and tear gas. This was the scene:

“Problem” solved.

So clearly, Hungary isn’t playing around when it comes to security, but as it turns out, migrant-be-gone fences and tear gas aren’t sufficient in today’s dangerous security environment and so, the Hungarian central bank is stockpiling guns and ammo.

No, really.

“Hungary’s central bank, already facing criticism for a spending spree ranging from real estate to fine art, is now beefing up its security force, citing Europe’s migrant crisis and potential bomb threats among the reasons,” Bloomberg writes. “The National Bank of Hungary bought 200,000 rounds of live ammunition and 112 handguns for its security company, according to documents posted on a website for public procurements.”

Why, you might fairly ask, does the central bank need 200,000 bullets and hundreds of guns? Because of “international security risks,” central bank Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy says.

As Bloomberg goes on to note, “the security measures added to public scrutiny of the running of the bank, which under Matolcsy – an Orban ally – earmarked 200 billion forint ($718 million) to set up foundations to teach alternatives to what he called ‘outdated neoliberal’ economics.”

Well, the central bank could be championing worse things. They could be teaching Keynes and stockpiling fiat money. Instead, they’re doing away with neoliberalism and hoarding guns and ammo.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Contagious Crisis Of Confidence In Corporate Credit

A Contagious Crisis Of Confidence In Corporate Credit

Credit is not innately good or bad. Simplistically, productive Credit is constructive, while non-productive Credit is inevitably problematic. This crucial distinction tends to be masked throughout the boom period. Worse yet, a prolonged boom in “productive” Credit – surely fueled by some type of underlying monetary disorder – can prove particularly hazardous (to finance and the real economy).

Fundamentally, Credit is unstable. It is self-reinforcing and prone to excess. Credit Bubbles foment destabilizing price distortions, economic maladjustment, wealth redistribution and financial and economic vulnerability. Only through “activist” government intervention and manipulation will protracted Bubbles reach the point of precarious systemic fragility. Government/central bank monetary issuance coupled with market manipulations and liquidity backstops negates the self-adjusting processes that would typically work to restrain Credit and other financial excess (and shorten the Credit cycle).

A multi-decade experiment in unfettered “money” and Credit has encompassed the world. Unique in history, the global financial “system” has operated with essentially no limitations to either the quantity or quality of Credit instruments issued. Over decades this has nurtured unprecedented Credit excess and attendant economic imbalances on a global scale. This historic experiment climaxed with a seven-year period of massive ($12 TN) global central bank “money” creation and market liquidity injections. It is central to my thesis that this experiment has failed and the unwind has commenced.

The U.S. repudiation of the gold standard in 1971 was a critical development. The seventies oil shocks, “stagflation” and the Latin American debt debacle were instrumental. Yet I view the Greenspan Fed’s reaction to the 1987 stock market crash as the defining genesis of today’s fateful global Credit Bubble.

The Fed’s explicit assurances of marketplace liquidity came at a critical juncture for the evolution to market-based finance.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Citi: “There Was Something About The Entire Recovery Narrative That Is Downright Wrong”

Citi: “There Was Something About The Entire Recovery Narrative That Is Downright Wrong”

Yesterday, we laid out what according to Citi’s Matt King, one of the most insightful and respected credit analysts in the world, is most surprising about the ongoing market selloff: the odd interplay between some asset classes which are declining in an orderly, almost boring fashion, and other assets which have crossed into and beyond a state of existential panic.

The reason for this ongoing paradox is still unclear but as Citi’s King, BofA’s Martin and Hartnett, and DB’s Konstam and Reid have all hinted on numerous occasions, the fundamental driver of everything that is wrong with the market are the actions of the policy makers themselves, who in their feverish attempt to preserve the market in the post-Lehman devastation, have made the market into a “market”, one where nothing makes sense any more. In other words, in order to save the market, central bankers broke it. 

Which brings us to the conclusion from Matt King’s most recent note, one which picks up on his observations of the all too clear dislocations and paradoxes in the market, those “things which, according to all the policymakers’ models of the world, are “not supposed to be happening”. 

And yet they are, and as King adds, “it is increasingly clear that the world is not fixed – far from it.”

The rest of King’s conclusion is a must read for everyone, especially those who think that anything in the past 7 years has been fixed, or even partially resolved.

This, then, is the real implication of widespread market dislocations. It suggests that there was something about the entire narrative peddled after the crisis which was at best incomplete, and at worst downright wrong.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Jingle mail rears its ugly head in Alberta again

Jingle mail rears its ugly head in Alberta again

Federal government worried about Albertans making strategic defaults on their mortgages

This tiny hamlet south of Calgary has 27 homes for sale for more than $1 million.

This tiny hamlet south of Calgary has 27 homes for sale for more than $1 million. (Colin Hall/CBC)

One of the big bads from the 1980s is starting to emerge again in Alberta.

Jingle mail — the act of walking away from an underwater mortgage by mailing your keys back to the bank — is a peculiarity of the Alberta residential market and an act of desperation. However, a combination of high debt and lost jobs make it an option in a province going through a significant economic reckoning.

It’s enough of a concern that the federal government is watching the Alberta market closely. Jingle mail, or strategic defaults, weaken the housing market and increase loan losses among Canada’s banks.

‘People saying that we can’t make a go of it and mail the keys to the bank.’– Don Campbell, Real Estate Investment Network

“We’re slowly starting to see it in Grand Prairie and Fort Mac,” said Don Campbell, senior analyst with the Real Estate Investment Network.

“People saying that we can’t make a go of it and mail the keys to the bank. In the big cities, not so much because the average sale prices haven’t really dropped much, we haven’t seen the pain yet. But Calgary is getting pretty tight.”

Bruce Alger, an insolvency trustee at Grant Thornton in Calgary, said he is dealing with one such case and has heard of more.

“It’s when you see high-end home prices drop 20 per cent below the peak,” said Alger. “I think there are people considering walking away and I’ve talked to one or two myself.”

Why Alberta is different

Alberta is the only Canadian province to broadly offer non-recourse residential mortgages. Those loans with at least a 20 per cent down payment and thus are not insured by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Vancouver Real Estate Goes Full-Retard; Average Home Price Now $1.8 Million

Vancouver Real Estate Goes Full-Retard; Average Home Price Now $1.8 Million 

Last week we identified a “bargain” in Canadian real estate.

As you might recall, the Canadian economy is in a bit of a tailspin, and that goes double for the country’s dying oil patch. Indeed, we’ve documented Alberta’s painful experience with slumping crude exhaustively, noting that the steep decline in oil prices has triggered job losses (which hit their highest level in 34 years in 2015), depression, suicides, soaring food bank usage, and a marked uptick in property crime.

Through it all, parts of the real estate market in Canada remain red hot. In stark contrast to the millions of square feet of office space sitting vacant in beleaguered Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver are on fire.

Housing sales in the Toronto area rose 8.2% last month from a year earlier. The average selling price: $631,092.

In Vancouver, the numbers are simply astonishing. Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver rose 31.7% in January. That’s 46% above the 10-year sales average for the first month of the year and the second highest January ever, the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board notes. The benchmark price for a detached home in Vancouver: $1,293,700. The benchmark price for an apartment: $456,600.

But it gets still crazier. The “benchmark” price represents what the Real Estate Board says a “typical” home would go for on the market. If we simply take the arithmetic mean (i.e. the average), the numbers are even more astounding. As CTV news reports, the average selling price of detached homes was much higher last month – at an astronomical $1.82 million.

“Home buyer demand is at near record heights and home seller supply is as low as we’ve seen in many years,” REBGV President Darcy McLeod said.

So a seller’s market. Got it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The End Of Plan A: The Big Reset & $8000 Gold

The End Of Plan A: The Big Reset & $8000 Gold

Willem Middlekoop, author of The Big Reset – The War On Gold And The Financial Endgame, believes the current international monetary system has entered its last term and is up for a reset. Having predicted the collapse of the real estate market in 2006, (while Ben Bernanke didn’t), Middlekoop asks (rhetorically) -can the global credit expansion ‘experiment’ from 2002 – 2008, which Bernanke completely underestimated, be compared to the global QE ‘experiment’ from 2008 – present? – the answer is worrisome. In the following must-see interview with Grant Williams, he shares his thoughts on the future of the global monetary system and why the revaluation of Gold is inevitable

Middlekoop predicts the real estate crash in 2006… (ensure English Subtitles – Closed Captions – are enabled)

Bernanke did not… (stunning!!)

And now today, Middelkoop has some even more ominous concerns about the end of Plan A and where Plan B begins…

“By revaluing gold to a much higher level, to over $8000 an ounce, central bankers solve quite a lot of problems”

17:00 – “But we know Plan A – the current financial system – will end soon, we can’t go on this way… so we need a monetary reset… and a revaluation of gold has helped central bankers in the past, such as Roosevelt in the 1930s. It would help to restore the balance sheet of The Federal Reserve.”

But there are problems…

21:00 –  “It always ends in inflation.. certainly in 2016, we can expect more QE… and when that does not defeat deflation (driven by global over-indebtedness), further unorthodox measures will be taken (helicopter money).. and eventually a gold revaluation.”

In this episode of the Gold series, Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodities Discovery Fund, dives into the history of monetary shifts and explores a scenario where the US dollar could be debunked as the global reserve currency. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How The Rothschilds Made America Into Their Private Tax Fraud Backyard

How The Rothschilds Made America Into Their Private Tax Fraud Backyard

Back in September 2012 we first presented “the world’s biggest hedge fund nobody had ever heard of”: a small, previously unknown company called Braeburn Capital which, however, managed more cash than even Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund.

How had the little firm operating out of a non-descript office building in Nevada achieved this claim to fame? By managing the cash hoard (now well over $200 billion) of the world’s biggest and most valuable company: Apple.

But what was perhaps more notable is where Braeburn was physically located: Reno, Nevada. 

We explained the company’s choice for location with one simple word: “taxes”, or rather the full, and very much legal, avoidance thereof.

Three and a half years later we encounter this quiet Nevada town once again, and once again it is Reno’s aura of tax evasion that brings is to the world’s attention courtesy of a Bloomberg report discussing “The World’s Favorite New Tax Haven.”

Only instead of Apple this time, the focus falls on a far more notorious company: the Rotschilds.

As Bloomberg writes, “last September, at a law firm overlooking San Francisco Bay, Andrew Penney, a managing director at Rothschild & Co., gave a talk on how the world’s wealthy elite can avoid paying taxes.  His message was clear: You can help your clients move their fortunes to the United States, free of taxes and hidden from their governments. Some are calling it the new Switzerland.”

Ah, the rich irony: years after Obama single-handedly destroyed the secrecy-based Swiss banking model, the U.S. itself has taken over the role of the world’s biggest, if no longer very secret, tax haven, and the epicenter is this modest Nevada city located next to lake Tahoe, which has become the favorite city, if only for tax purposes, for such names as Apple and the Rothschild family.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alberta Loses Most Jobs In 34 Years As Oil Crunch Cripples Labor Market

Alberta Loses Most Jobs In 34 Years As Oil Crunch Cripples Labor Market

Times are tough in Alberta and to be sure, we’ve piled it on heavy when it comes to cataloguing the long list of pitiable outcomes that have accompanied crude’s steep slide.

The province is at the center of Canada’s dying oil patch and as crude extended its seemingly endless decline last year, Alberta saw oil and gas investment plunge by a third. That’s bad news for authorities who count on resources for 30% of provincial revenues.

Rig activity fell by half in the first seven months of 2015 and as the job losses mounted, the sorrow deepened – literally. Suicide rates jumped by 30% and in Calgary commercial break-ins almost doubled from a year earlier, while bank robberies were up 65% and home invasions increased 52% (read more here).

Meanwhile, food bank usage spiked as those who used to be donors found themselves depending on the free meals for subsistence.

And speaking of food, prices for fresh fruit and vegetables are seeing double-digit inflation thanks to the plunging loonie.

All in all, a very bad situation indeed and on Tuesday we learned that the picture was actually materially worse than an initial round of statistics led us to believe.

“Statscan’s annual revisions of its national Labour Force Survey data ratcheted up Alberta’s net job losses last year to 19,600, from the 14,600 the statistical agency originally reported in its final 2015 survey released in early January,” The Globe And Mail reports, adding that the losses “exceed the 17,000 jobs Alberta shed in the Great Recession in 2009.”

In fact, 2015 was the worst year for job losses in the province since 1982.

By the end of last year, Alberta’s unemployment rate had risen to 7.1% from just 4.8% at the end of 2014. As The Globe And Mail goes on to note, that’s the highest level in two decades. And it’s projected to get worse. Alberta could see unemployment rise to 7.5% in H1.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Attention Finally Turns To Saudi Arabia’s “Secret” US Treasury Holdings

Attention Finally Turns To Saudi Arabia’s “Secret” US Treasury Holdings

The system which underwrote decades of dollar dominance and kept a perpetual bid under USD assets met an untimely demise when the Saudis moved to bankrupt the US shale complex by deliberately suppressing oil prices.

The implications, we said, would be far-reaching.

For years, oil producing nations plowed their USD crude proceeds into USTs and other dollar assets in a virtuous loop both for the currency and for the nation that printed it. The “Great Accumulation” (as Deutsche Bank calls it) of USD FX reserves ended for good in early 2015 but no one noticed until China began to liquidate mountains of US paper in an attempt to manage a runaway devaluation effort.

By the start of September, all anyone wanted to talk about was the depletion of EM FX war chests as the world suddenly came to understand that the selling of FX reserves amounts to QE in reverse and might therefore serve to tighten global monetary conditions, drive up yields on core paper, and sap liquidity as traditional net exporters of capital suddenly stopped buying amid slumping commodity prices and the yuan fiasco. Some wondered if the reserve drawdowns would cause the Fed to delay liftoff as the FOMC would effectively be tightening into a tightening.

Against this backdrop we said that the most important chart in the world may well be one that depicts the combined FX reserves of Saudi Arabia and China.

Now that Saudi Arabia’s oil price gambit has backfired on the way to blowing a hole in the kingdom’s budget that amounted to 16% of GDP last year, the market is speculating that Riyadh’s vast SAMA reserves could disappear altogether – especially considering the added cost of funding the war in Yemen and maintaining the riyal peg.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Exclusive: “And It’s Gone… It’s All Gone” – The One Gold Scandal That Goes To The Very Top

Exclusive: “And It’s Gone… It’s All Gone” – The One Gold Scandal That Goes To The Very Top

Long before Turkey was flagrantly arming and funding the CIA-created “terrorist organization” known as ISIS, there was another, far more elaborate way in which Turkey was flaunting international sanctions against an ostracized state – in this case Iran – which involved an epic gold smuggling triangle of Hollywood-thriller proportions, all made possible thanks to the United Arab Emirate city of Dubai.

Best known known for its luxury shopping, ultramodern architecture including the world’s tallest building, a lively nightlife scene, and a facade of openness and decorum, what Dubai is less known for is its unprecedented seedy underbelly of corruption and untouched criminality among the handful of billionaire oligarchs, princes, sheiks and sultans, who quietly dominate the local (and global) power and financial structure.

But first, a little history.

It may seem like a distant memory now, but just a few short years ago, instead of a close ally of Barack Obama, Iran was a pariah state subject to international financial sanctions due to its nuclear program development, one which Israel had repeatedly (and famously) threatened would attack preemptively to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Iran, of course, had no choice but to find ways to keep its economy going, and in order to circumvent these sanctions, it resorted to the oldest form of trade known to man: gold. 

This, in itself, is not surprising. What is surprising is how and with whom Iran collaborated to breach the international embargo in order to obtain this valuable and much needed gold, which it could then barter with other countries – notably those along the Pacific Rim – in exchange for any and all needed products and services.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is Canada’s Depression: Surging Crime, Soaring Suicides, Overwhelmed Food Banks “And The Worst Is Yet To Come”

This Is Canada’s Depression: Surging Crime, Soaring Suicides, Overwhelmed Food Banks “And The Worst Is Yet To Come”

Back in March, we brought you “Drugs, Prostitution, Violence Plague Oil Boom Towns Gone Bust,” in which we detailed the plight of towns like Sidney and Bainville, Montana, where the slump in oil revenue has made it all but impossible for local authorities to cope with surging crime rates that some attribute to the influx of oil workers the communities experienced in the good old days of high crude prices.

The problem, apparently, was that despite the dramatic slump in oil, companies hadn’t yet begun to cut jobs or slash capex and so, officials were left with less money to put towards policing their growing populations.

As dangerous as it may be for small towns to experience exponential growth in what The Washington Post describedas “highly paid oil workers living in sprawling ‘man camps’ with limited spending opportunities,” what’s even more dangerous is the prospect that suddenly, the majority of those workers will be jobless. That is, if there’s anything that’s more conducive to raising the crime rate than legions of highly paid young men living in small towns with “limited spending opportunities,” it’s legions of formerly highly paid young men stuck in small towns with limited job opportunities.

With that in mind, America can look north to Calgary for a preview of what’s in store for America’s oil boom towns.

Although Alberta’s largest city bares little resemblance to Sidney and Bainville, the three do have one thing in common: oil. “Calgary boasted one of the lowest jobless rates in Canada as crude prices rose over $100 a barrel [but] it’s now reeling after a global glut pushed prices down by two-thirds,” Bloomberg notes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Canadians Should Be Concerned” As Energy Sector Job Losses Spike To 100,000 This Year

“Canadians Should Be Concerned” As Energy Sector Job Losses Spike To 100,000 This Year

It’s grim up north… and getting grimmer. Amid soaring suicide rates, Canada’s once-booming oil patch is rapidly accelerating its downward trajectory. “Canadians should be concerned in times like these,” warned Tim McMillan, president and chief executive of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, noting that the oil and gas sector will see 100,000 job losses by the end of this year. Even if oil prices rise early and fast next year, Financial Post reportsit may take a while for Canadian oilsands to rebound as the industry has mothballed a number of long-term projects.

Over the past year, we have extensively chronicled the tragic story of Alberta – Canada’s once booming oilpatch – disintegrate slowly at first, then very fast, into an economic and financial wasteland:

And, in one of the latest articles of this sad series describing the Alberta “bloodbath”, we said that the worst casualty of Canada’s recession has been the local commercial real estate market, where office vacancies are about to surpass the aftermath of the (first) great financial crisis.

But, it turns out the biggest casualty of Canada’s recession, which unless oil rebounds strongly soon will follow Brazil into an all out depression, are people themselves. As CBC reports the suicide rate in Alberta has increased dramatically in the wake of mounting job losses across the province.

Sadly, as The Financial Post reports, the situation looks set to get worse… as policy uncertainty has exacerbated the pain of low prices

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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