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Could the Renminbi Challenge the Dollar?
Wodicka/ullstein bild via Getty Images Could the Renminbi Challenge the Dollar? China’s rapid economic growth, coupled with savvy monetary management by its leaders, has internationalized the renminbi to a degree that scarcely could have been imagined just a few decades ago. But if China’s leaders ever want to challenge the US for global currency dominance, […]
The Abnormality of Oil
Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Image The Abnormality of Oil At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the […]
Will Monetary Policy Trigger Another Financial Crisis?
Getty Images Will Monetary Policy Trigger Another Financial Crisis? Sustained unconventional monetary policies in the years after the 2008 global financial crisis created the conditions for the second-longest bull market in history. But they also may have sown the seeds of the next financial crisis, which might take root as central banks continue to normalize […]
Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk
Frank Rumpenhorst/Getty Images Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk Today’s economy is in a “risk-on” period, when investors exchange safe-haven assets like US Treasury Bills for riskier ones, from real estate to carry-trade currencies. But when such behavior assumes that economic conditions are more stable than they are, as seems to be the case today, trouble […]
The Global Economy in 2018
Getty Images The Global Economy in 2018 The global economy will confront serious challenges in the months and years ahead, and looming in the background is a mountain of debt that makes markets nervous – and that thus increases the system’s vulnerability to destabilizing shocks. Yet the baseline scenario seems to be one of […]
The Myth of a Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
Haidar Mohammed Ali/Getty Images The Myth of a Fossil Fuel Phase-Out How we use energy is a hot topic for a warming world, and fears of pollution and resource strain have produced an arms race of energy efficiency solutions. But despite fears of shortages or threats from pollution, the planet has actually entered an […]
Surveying the Damage of Low Interest Rates
Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images Surveying the Damage of Low Interest Rates Few would disagree that it was necessary to slash interest rates in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. But after a decade of ultra-loose monetary policies across advanced economies, growth remains tepid, financial risks have proliferated, and middle-class savers have lost […]
The High Cost of Denying Class War
Matt Cards/Getty Images The High Cost of Denying Class War The rise of populism on both sides of the Atlantic is being investigated psychoanalytically, culturally, anthropologically, aesthetically, and of course in terms of identity politics. The only angle left unexplored is the one that holds the key to understanding what is going on: the […]
The Long and Winding Road to a Haircut
Federico Parra/Getty Images The Long and Winding Road to a Haircut There are significant differences between Puerto Rico and Venezuela regarding the origins of their economic crises, their political systems, their relationship with the US and the rest of the world, and much else. Nonetheless, some notable similarities are likely to emerge as their debt […]
Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk
Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk Today’s economy is in a “risk-on” period, when investors exchange safe-haven assets like US Treasury Bills for riskier ones, from real estate to carry-trade currencies. But when such behavior assumes that economic conditions are more stable than they are, as seems to be the case today, trouble inevitably follows. CAMBRIDGE […]
The Pandora’s Box of the Digital Age
The Pandora’s Box of the Digital Age In the past year alone, a series of hacks and ransomware attacks by hostile governments and other malign actors have raised alarms about a major threat to global stability. Unfortunately, many governments are responding by developing still more cyber weapons, on the mistaken assumption that offense is the […]
The Promise of Fiscal Money
Nur Photo/Getty Images The Promise of Fiscal Money One of the few remaining sacred cows of Western capitalism is the independence of central banks from elected governments. But in an age when fiscal policy has become an essential factor in determining the quantity of money lubricating the system, an independent monetary authority no longer makes […]
The $200 Trillion Question
The $200 Trillion Question Perhaps the most remarkable trend in global macroeconomics over the past two decades has been the stunning drop in the volatility of economic growth. In the United States, for example, quarterly output volatility has fallen by more than half since the mid-1980’s. Obviously, moderation in output movements did not occur everywhere […]
Media Capture in the Digital Age
Media Capture in the Digital Age NEW YORK – The last couple of years have not been good for freedom of expression. The governments of Poland, Hungary, and Turkey have become increasingly authoritarian and – like leaders in the Balkans, China, and Russia – increasingly eager to control public discourse. In the United States, too, […]
