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Pic 1: Druzhba oil pipeline, refineries supplied
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/4144/4136/Druzhba%20IEA.pngFig 2: Crude production peaked before Covid at around 10.6 mb/d

That this production level would be some kind of limit was known for a long time

April 2008
The IEA’s latest medium-term outlook, published in July, points to Russia as the third largest contributor to an expected 2.6m b/d increase in non-OPEC supply, just behind Brazil and biofuels. It said that Russia would increase its production to 10.5m b/d in 2012, about 600,000 b/d above last year’s level.
https://www.ft.com/content/967448f4-0b1e-11dd-8ccf-0000779fd2ac
.

Russian oil production might never recover to pre-coronavirus levels, the country’s Energy Ministry has forecast, according to the Kommersant business paper.
In a strategy document outlining prospects for Russia’s critical oil and gas industry, the government said its “base case” — or most likely — scenario, is that Russia’s oil production will never again hit the record levels recorded in 2019.
In the last full year before the pandemic, Russia produced 560 million tons of oil — equivalent to 11.3 million barrels a day. But output dropped for the first time in more than a decade in 2020 as Russia agreed significant production cuts with Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC cartel in a bid to support oil prices at the start of the pandemic — pushing production down 9% to 10.3 million barrels per day.
In the scenario labelled most probable, the Energy Ministry predicts Russia’s oil output will grow over the rest of the decade — but fail to hit the record output of 2019, with production hitting a post-coronavirus peak of 11.1 million barrels a day in 2029 before decreasing to 9.4 million barrels a day by 2035.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/12/russia-may-have-passed-peak-oil-output-government-a73558

The Norwegian energy consultant did this analysis:
Lack of field sanctioning drives long-term oil production decline in Russia
August 2019
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/newsletters/EandP/lack-of-field-sanctioning-drives-long-term-oil-production-decline-in-russia/
.

Fig 3: Rystad’s projection of Russian oil production to 2030

The red curve shows the impact of Covid with data from https://minenergo.gov.ru/en/activity/statistics

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is there a long emergency plan for peak oil?

February 12, 2022

Ever since I first learned about peak oil in 2000, the Master Resource that makes all other resources and activities possible, I’ve wondered what The Plan to cope with its decline and eventual disappearance was. So it wouldn’t be just a long emergency plan, but a permanent emergency plan.

There have indeed been plans: Nixon launched “Project Independence” after the oil shock of 1973 to wean the U.S. from its dependence on imported oil by 1980 with kerogen shale oil, hydrogen fuel vehicles, and nuclear power.

When that didn’t pan out, further government attempts were made to find alternatives for fossil fuels, for example (NRC 2009):

Richard Nixon’s “Project Independence” (1974)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (1974)
Gerald Ford’s “Energy Independence Act” (1975)
Energy Policy & Conservation Act (1975) to restrict exports of coal, petroleum products, natural gas, petrochemical feedstocks, and supplies of materials and equipment for the exploration, production, refining, and transportation of energy.
Jimmy Carter’s “National Energy Plan” (1977)
Department of Energy (1977)
Ronald Reagan’s “Energy Security” report (1987)
George H.W. Bush’s “National Energy Strategy” (1991)
Bill Clinton’s “Federal Energy R&D for the Challenges of the 21^st Century” report (1997)
George W. Bush’s “Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America’s Future” report (2001).
John Kerry’s plan: “Kerry Aims to Reduce Foreign Oil Reliance,” Associated Press (2004).

But Senator Lugar pointed out in 2006 that despite Project Independence and other plans, the world has become more reliant on the three-quarters of reserves concentrated in unstable regions, where the risk of wars over remaining energy supplies will dramatically increase.

Or as Jay Hanson (2004) once wrote: “I am convinced thatafter the PROJECT INDEPENDENCE fiasco, our rulers reached the same conclusion I have: since no solution exists, there is no point in scaring Joe Six-pack…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Fossil Fuels: overview of world peak oil, peak coal, & peak natural gas

February 4, 2022

Peak Fossil Fuels: overview of world peak oil, peak coal, & peak natural gas

Source: World gas peaks in 2040 roughly. Delannoy L et al (2021) Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition. Energies. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14165112

Preface. Below are overviews of peak oil, coal, and natural gas, each followed by additional reading material from my book “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, which explains why we are unlikely to be able to electrify transportation, or run trucks on anything else besides diesel, and why the electric grid will come down for good when there’s no natural gas to balance wind and solar as well as provide peak power.

And my book Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy explains why the manufacturing of cement, steel, smelting of metals, glass, microchips, ceramics and more requires the high heat of fossil fuels to reach up to 3200 F, which can’t be electrified, run on hydrogen or anything else (see chapter 9). Worse yet, even if there were an existing commercial solution, which there isn’t, we are out of time to replace fossil fuels, since oil, the master resource that makes all others possible, probably peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) (IEA 2018 p45), or in 2018 (EIA 2020).

The good news is that the worst IPCC projections are less likely to be reached (see chapter 33 of Life After Fossil Fuels). And as oil declines exponentially faster, perhaps from now onward, CO2 will decline: About 50% of carbon dioxide emitted by human activity will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and 30% more within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years (GAO (2014) CLIMATE CHANGE: Energy Infrastructure Risks and Adaptation Efforts GAO-14-74. United States Government Accountability Office).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak oil is here!

February 2, 2022

Peak oil is here!

Preface. Peak oil is here! The global production of crude oil happened in November of 2018 (EIA 2020), and has declined for four years, enough time to officially declare global peak oil production. Conventional crude oil production leveled off in 2005, and peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production in 2018 at 82.9 mb/d because they included unconventional tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Below is a chart created by Tad Patzek from EIA data:

Nor will we ever reach “peak oil demand” because heavy-duty transportation (trucks, locomotives, ships), manufacturing, the 500,000 products made out of petroleum, and natural gas fertilizer that keeps 4 billion of us are utterly dependent on fossil fuels. Even the electric grid depends on fossil fuels to provide two-thirds of the energy, and nearly all of the energy to construct ReBuildables (they are NOT renewable). This is explained in great detail in my latest book “Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy” and previous book” When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”

The IEA forecast a supply crunch by 2025 in their rosy and very unrealistic New Policies scenario, which assumes greater efficiencies and alternative fuels and electric cars are adopted (Figure 1). By 2025, with 81% of global oil declining at up to 8% percent a year (Fustier 2016, IEA 2018), 34 mb/d of new output will be needed, and 54 mb/d if facilities aren’t maintained. That is more than three times Saudi Arabian production. The 15 mb/d of predicted U.S. shale isn’t likely — indeed, the IEA shows it declining in the mid-2020s (IEA 2018 Table 3.1).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia’s Oil Output Could Peak In 2023

January 30, 2022

Russia’s Oil Output Could Peak In 2023

There are growing doubts as to whether Russia can grow petroleum production to the volumes forecast by Moscow.
The world’s third-largest oil producer’s output will continue growing, peaking at 12.2 million barrels per day by mid-2023, according to Rystad Energy.
A combination of extreme climate, rising depletion rates and U.S. sanctions potentially blocking access to investment is weighing on the development of hydrocarbon projects.

Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, has long been an unknown when it comes to the OPEC+ production agreement which caps the petroleum output of participants to support higher prices. It was Moscow’s spat with Saudi Arabia over production quotas in early 2020 which, combined with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, caused crude oil prices to plunge into negative territory for the first time ever. The North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate plunged to minus $37.63 per barrel before recovering, while Brent did not enter negative territory the international benchmark, plunged to an intraday low of less than $15 per barrel. During that time Moscow, Riyadh and other OPEC+ signatories were finally able to agree on production quotas. However, Moscow’s economic ambitions remain a threat to the agreement’s firmness, particularly with Washington threatening further sanctions. With OPEC gradually expanding production quotas set out in the agreement confirmed at the 19th ministerial meeting, there is considerable speculation as to how much global petroleum supply will expand and how that will affect crude oil prices. A key point of conjecture is whether Russia can grow its crude oil output as planned and allowed by its OPEC+ quota, with it speculated that the world’s third-largest oil producer is operating at or near capacity. For December 2021 Russia, according to the Ministry of Energy, pumped an average of 10.903 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensate daily…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Impending World Energy Mess with Robert L. Hirsch

December 9, 2021

The Impending World Energy Mess with Robert L. Hirsch

A Practical Exercise Suggestion for Peak Oil Sceptics

November 26, 2021

A Practical Exercise Suggestion for Peak Oil Sceptics

(Translated from Spanish by Amelia Burke, originally published in two parts.)

When someone calls into question the existance of a peak in the production (extraction) of a non-renewable resource, which oil is, you should invite them to study carefully the curves of the Energy Export Databrowser. This Databrowser is formed using data from British Petroleum’s annual energy statistics. If necessary, round off with the data from the Hallock et al. document ”Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply: Validation” (Energy 64, 2014, 130-153). Then ask them to explain why —if everything depends on our human ingenuity and anything is possible given the amount money which is put into it, and given the God of Technology— there are already 50 oil producing countries that have exceeded their peak of production and are carrying on downhill. That is, except (temporarily) the U.S.A., specialists in rooting around in the filth of shale, with lots of technology and fabricated money.

And for those in our still relatively comfortable country who begin to worry that there might be actually be a peak and wonder what it could mean and when we think it might happen, I would confront them with a vision which is not quite so eurocentric as the one we are used to. I would invite them, with those calculations at hand, to do a little adding up in order to try and clarify it for themselves, based on counting the number of post-peak producer countries. Let them try by themselves to sketch out a possible date for the peak, or a slightly undulating plateau perhaps. I would tell them that more than 50 oil producing countries are already in decline, visible decline or terminal oil-bearing decline. In other words, the when, is something now in the past for no less than 50 countries…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak oil, economic growth and the big lie

November 9, 2021

Peak oil, economic growth and the big lie

In the commentary on Peak Oil recently published in the leading scientific journal Nature, James Murray (the founding director of the University of Washington’s Program on Climate Change) and David King (the Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford) made the following statement,

Historically, there has been a tight link between oil production and global economic growth. If oil production can’t grow, the implication is that the economy can’t grow either. This is such a frightening prospect that many have simply avoided considering it.

Why do we find the idea of the end of economic growth so frightening? The reason is what I call, ‘The Big Lie’.

The ‘Big Lie’ of our economic system is that anyone can get rich. Most of the world’s population will not see wealth in their lifetimes, either because of the circumstances of their birth, or because they chose the wrong career path, did not work or study hard enough or did not think it so important to pursue personal monetary gain.

However we all take comfort from the idea that it might be possible to improve our lot or even that, if we make the right choices, we could become rich. Most of us believe that anyone can become wealthy if they truly work hard enough for it. But in a world where finite resources are passing their peak extraction rates this is no longer true: if it ever was.

The great majority of people in our society do not understand economics. Judging by economists’ ability to predict the behaviour of the economy, most of them do not understand economics either. Yet, most people believe they understand the idea of economic growth, or at least the “growth” part. The end of growth does not sound positive.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Should Brace for Global Oil Shortage and Skyrocketing Price Due to Worsening Crisis

November 1, 2021

World Should Brace for Global Oil Shortage and Skyrocketing Price Due to Worsening Crisis

According to economists, chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis, as well as pressure on oil and gas corporations to reduce emissions and even “keep it in the ground,” would likely lead to global oil output peaking sooner than initially projected.

This would be a positive outcome for green energy proponents, net-zero agendas, and the environment if it weren’t for one simple fact: oil demand is recovering from the pandemic-induced dip and is on track to reach a new annual average record as early as next year.

Nearing Peak Oil Consumption?

Analysts have predicted that peak oil consumption will arrive sooner than envisaged just a few years ago, thanks to the energy transition and numerous government initiatives for net-zero emissions.

However, based on current oil and gas investment trends, global oil production may peak before global oil demand, creating a supply imbalance resulting in increased market volatility, price spikes, and perhaps fundamentally higher oil prices by the middle of this decade.

In a report published by Reuters this week, Morgan Stanley’s research department noted, “On present trends, global oil production is projected to peak much earlier than demand.”

“The planet establishes limits on how much carbon may be safely released. As a result, oil consumption must peak, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.

The problem with the globe is that oil consumption is not peaking, despite wishful thinking, investment pressure, and other factors. According to most forecasts, it will not peak until the end of this decade at the earliest.

OPEC Report

According to OPEC’s latest annual estimate, global oil consumption will continue to climb through the mid-2030s, reaching 108 million barrels per day (BPD), then plateauing until 2045.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Robert Hirsh on Peak Oil

September 25, 2021

Robert Hirsh on Peak Oil

These Are The ‘Good Old Days’

September 25, 2021

These Are The ‘Good Old Days’

At tipping points like now, the steps we take in the present determine our future

If you prefer to listen to the author read this article, Click Here.

Bill was 48 when his wife stunned him with a request for divorce. Right up until that moment, he’d thought everything was fine.

He’d been pouring all his energy into his work to provide a very comfortable life for his wife and 2 children. But she was unhappy and fell out of love while Bill wasn’t paying attention to matters at home. He’d taken her for granted and forgot to be present for the most important people in his life, and to be grateful in the moment.

After she was gone, Bill was filled with emptiness and regret. All he wanted was to get her back, but it was too late. The damage had been done. What he had before was now in the past.

This parable of Bill’s loss serves as a reminder to all of us that, with all that’s awry in the world, it’s all too easy for those of us who are paying attention to gripe about everything that’s going wrong.

Yes, there are many trends that are headed on the wrong trajectory. But this tumultuous period of history also affords each of us the fantastic opportunity to contribute positively to the new future that’s on the way.

Please take this article an invitation to be grateful for what you have, and to notice just how wonderful our current lifestyle truly is. It won’t remain this way, as I’ll expound on in a moment.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The decline of oil has already begun

September 16, 2021

In 1961, when I was 14, working on a science fair project, my father – a geologist and petroleum engineer – explained oil depletion to me. To grow production, oil companies were drilling deeper and deeper wells, developing technologies to extract more oil from spent fields, and would one day tap into shale rock and the Canadian tar sands to extract the dregs.

Oil Spill and Burnt Forest Action in Brazil. © Adriano Machado / Greenpeace — Greenpeace activists protest oil in front of the Palácio do Planalto, in Brasília. © Adriano Machado / Greenpeace

Oil, he explained, was a finite store of condensed organic matter from the bottoms of ancient seas. The industry had been extracting the highest quality and least expensive oil, but over time, the quality of oil would decline, the cost of finding it would increase, and decades in the future, perhaps in my lifetime, oil would no longer be economic to produce.

Although we would not technically see the end of all oil on Earth, the cost/benefit ratio would begin to favour other forms of energy. He told me then, in 1961, that oil companies should be developing other energy sources, that they should consider themselves in the “energy business,” not just the oil business.

Since my father knew all this 60 years ago, I suspect that virtually every engineer and manager in the oil industry knew the same facts. They knew oil was a finite resource, and would eventually run out. They also knew that burning oil created carbon emissions, which would heat the planet. In 1965, the American Petroleum Institute warned that CO2 pollution could “cause marked changes in climate” with “catastrophic consequence.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Can democracy survive peak oil?

September 1, 2021

Can democracy survive peak oil?

Preface. This is a book review of Howard Bucknell’s Energy and the National Defense. University of Kentucky Press.

Bucknell was amazingly prescient as you’ll see in this review, especially about why democracy might not survive the energy crisis.

Though it turns out the U.S. may not need an energy crisis to descend into totalitarianism. It’s been coming for a long time, the evolution began with the first cult religious settlers, “white trash“, Pat Robertson, Reagan, Phyllis Shafly, Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich, evangelism, FOX news and so on (for details read Dean’s “Conservatives without Conscience”, review here). But because of that, perhaps an authoritarian is even more likely to appear during an energy crisis, which in the U.S. means crony corruption rather than fair rationing for all…

Bucknell was once the director of the energy and national security project at Ohio State University. He graduated in 1944 from the U.S. Naval Academy and commanded a number of ships, including nuclear-powered submarines. He has a doctorate in political science from the University of Georgia.

This book is also about the energy crises of the 1970s. At the time, President Carter, Kissinger, Bucknell, and others thought this was the start of energy descent. It’s interesting to see what actions were taken, how energy was dealt with politically, the institutions created to solve the energy crisis, and the issues, failures, and problems encountered when trying to take action in what turned out to be the “dress rehearsal”.

Bucknell’s wrote this book partly to warn military planners that lightning raids on oil fields in the Middle East would be a bad idea, and to get two main efforts started: liquefied synthetic fuels to solve the transportation problem, and energy conservation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate Change and Resource Depletion. Which Way to Ruin is Faster?

July 5, 2021

Climate Change and Resource Depletion. Which Way to Ruin is Faster?

What could bring down the industrial civilization? Would it be global warming (fire) or resource depletion (ice)? At present, it may well be that depletion is hitting us faster. But, in the long run, global warming may hit us much harder. Maybe the fall of our civilization will be Fire AND ice.

The years after World War 2 saw perhaps the fastest expansion and the greatest prosperity in history for humankind. Yet, it was becoming clear that it was exactly this burst of prosperity and expansion that was creating the conditions for its own collapse. How long could humankind continue growing an economy based on limited natural resources? How long could the human population keep increasing?

The discussion soon split into two main lines: one focused on depletion, the other on pollution. Over the years, the “depletionists” concentrated on fossil fuels, the main source of energy that keeps civilization moving. Initially, the disappearance of fossil fuels was seen simply as a necessary step in the progression toward nuclear energy. But the waning of the nuclear idea generated the idea that the lack of fossil energy would eventually bring down civilization. The collapse was often seen as the result of “peak oil,” the point in time when oil production couldn’t be increased anymore. It was estimated to occur at some moment during the first 2-3 decades of the 21st century.

On the other side, the focus was initially on pollutants such as smog, heavy metals, carcinogenic substances, and others. Pollution was generally seen as a solvable problem and, indeed, good progress was done in abating it in many fields. But the emerging idea of global warming soon started to be seen by “climatists” as an existential threat to humankind, or even to the whole planetary ecosystem…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The implications of collapsing ERoEI

May 22, 2021

The implications of collapsing ERoEI

Judging by the relatively low level of interest the past few articles published here regarding the collapse of fossil fuel ERoEI (along with PV’s) have attracted, I can only conclude that most people just don’t get it……. How can I possibly fix this……?

When I first started ‘campaigning’ on the issue of Peak Oil way back in 2000 or so, 2020 seemed like a ve oileroei ry long way away. I still thought at the time that renewables would ‘save us’, or at the very least that energy efficiency would be taken up on a massive scale. None of those things happened.

Way back then, I gave many public powerpoint presentations, foolishly thinking that, presented with the facts, (NOT alternative facts like we have today…) people would wake up to themselves. I even foolishly believed that the Australian Greens would take this up as a major issue, because after all the ‘solutions’ to Peak Oil also happen to be the ‘solutions’ for Climate Change. Now you know why I have turned into such a cynic.

In that presentation, there was one important slide, shown above. It is indelible in my memory.

I’ve now come across a very similar chart, except this one has dates on it….. and 2020 no longer seems very far away at all….

COLLAPSING ERoEI IN ONE CHART

peakeroei

I have selected three years; 2017, in red; 2020 in black; 2025 in green.

Each year has two lines. One for how much energy is being extracted, and the lower one of the same colour shows the net energy available from that extraction. The ‘missing’ energy, lost to crashing ERoEI, is the difference between the two lines of the same colour…. Already, in 2017, we probably only have the amount of energy that was available mid 1980.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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