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Venezuela Defies the US Empire Reelecting Maduro

Venezuela Defies the US Empire Reelecting Maduro

Photo by Joka Madruga | CC BY 2.0

The Venezuelan people reelected Nicolás Maduro for a second presidential term on May 20. A US-backed political tide of reaction had been bucked, which had swept away previously left-leaning Latin American governments – often by extra-parliamentary means – in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Honduras, and even Ecuador.

The US and the rightwing opposition in Venezuela had demanded an election boycott and Maduro’s resignation. Defying them, the popular classes voted as a form of resistance in what they proudly told us was a “celebration of democracy.” Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian Revolution was again affirmed as was Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro.

Maduro’s Inheritance

Hugo Chávez was first elected in 1998 and died in office in 2013. Many Venezuelans grieved deeply and personally; some rejoiced; no one was untouched. Chávez had spearheaded a movement that turned Venezuela from an epigone of Washington to an independent force opposing US global hegemony. The Bolivarian Revolution reclaimed Venezuela’s history and forged a new national identity that no longer looked to Miami for affirmation.

Venezuelan society became more inclusive for poor women, people of color, and youth. As Greg Grandin observed, this inclusiveness has awakened “a deep fear of the primal hatred, racism, and fury of the opposition, which for now is directed at the agents of Maduro’s state but really springs from Chávez’s expansion of the public sphere to include Venezuela’s poor.”

On a geopolitical level, the Bolivarian Revolution placed a renewed focus on the socialist project. While some in the international left have become confused on anti-imperialism, Uncle Sam has been clear and has made regime change in Venezuela a priority.

Maduro inherited all this and more: a dysfunctional currency system, deeply engrained corruption, an entrenched criminal element, a petro-economy dependent on the international market, and the eternal enmity of Washington.

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The US is Meddling in Venezuelan Election

The US is Meddling in Venezuelan Election

As Venezuelans go to the polls Sunday, the U.S. is working to disrupt the re-election of Nicolas Maduro and rollback leftwing governments in the region, reports Roger D. Harris.


Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is the frontrunner in the presidential elections that will take place on Sunday. If past pronouncements and practice by the United States are any indication, every effort will be made to oust an avowed socialist from the the U.S. “backyard.”

This week, the leftist president of Bolivia, Evo Morales, tweeted: “Before the elections they (U.S. and allies) will carry out violent actions supported by the media and after the elections they will try a military invasion with Armed Forces from neighboring countries.”

U.S. antipathy towards the Venezuelan government started with the election of Hugo Chávez in 1998, followed by a brief and unsuccessful U.S.-backed coup in 2002. Chávez made the magnanimous, but politically imprudent, gesture of pardoning the golpistas, who are still trying to achieve by extra-parliamentary means what they have been unable to realize democratically. After Chávez died in 2013, the Venezuelans elected Maduro to carry on what has become known as the Bolivarian Revolution.

The Phantom Menace

In 2015 then U.S. President Barack Obama declared “a national emergency” because of a supposed Venezuelan threat to the U.S. The U.S. has military bases to the west of Venezuela in Colombia and to the east in the Dutch colonial islands. The Fourth Fleet patrols Venezuela’s Caribbean coast. Yet somehow in the twisted logic of imperialism, the phantom of Venezuela posed a menacing, “extraordinary threat” to the U.S.

Each year Obama renewed and deepened sanctions against Venezuela under the National Emergencies Act. Taking no chances that his successor might not be sufficiently hostile to Venezuela, Obama prematurely renewed the sanctions his last year in office even though the sanctions would not have expired until two months into Trump’s tenure.

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Ex-Venezuela Oil Boss: PDVSA Is Collapsing

Ex-Venezuela Oil Boss: PDVSA Is Collapsing

Venezuela

The man who ran Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA for a decade after 2004 says that the country’s oil firm is on the cusp of total collapse and expects oil production to drop by 600,000 bpd each year amid lack of investment.

Rafael Ramirez, who has long been a rival of Venezuela’s incumbent leader Nicolas Maduro within Hugo Chavez’s inner circle, told Bloomberg in a phone interview that “PDVSA may fall into an accelerated spiral downward.”

According to OPEC’s secondary sources, Venezuela’s oil production averaged 2.154 million bpd in 2016 and 1.916 million bpd in 2017. In March 2018, its production plunged to 1.488 million bpd.

Ramirez became oil minister in 2002 and then head of PDVSA in 2004. During his ten-year tenure at the company, Venezuela’s production dropped by 10 percent. Since Ramirez left PDVSA, oil production has lost another 30 percent, with the steepest drops occurring over the past two years amid total economic collapse and lack of investment.

At the end of last year, Venezuela said that it would launch a criminal investigation into Ramirez over alleged corruption in a wider graft probe that ended with dozens of oil executives arrested.

Ramirez is currently in a self-imposed exile in a European city.

Some analysts saw the corruption purge at the end of 2017 as politically motivated with Maduro getting rid of opponents and tightening his grip over the oil industry—Venezuela’s only foreign exchange income source. Maduro also named a National Guard major general—Manuel Quevedo—as the new head of PDVSA and the country’s oil ministry. Quevedo’s lack of any oil industry experience further worried analysts that mismanagement would continue and even increase.

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The Single Largest Supply Risk In Oil Markets

The Single Largest Supply Risk In Oil Markets

Maduro

Venezuela could be the reason that “tips the market decisively into deficit,” the International Energy Agency said in a new report.

Venezuela lost another 60,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February, according to the Paris-based energy agency, and continues to present the largest supply risk to the global oil market. The IEA noted that even if Venezuela’s production levels hadn’t cratered over the past year, and it produced at the agreed upon level as part of the OPEC deal, the group would still be posting close to a 100 percent compliance level. As it stands, however, Venezuela’s plummeting output put the cartel’s compliance rate closer to 150 percent, the highest figure to date.

Aside from that, the IEA said that not much has materially changed over the past month, but expressed a more bullish outlook towards the market for 2018. Oil inventories happened to climb in January for the first time since July 2017, but only increased by 18 million barrels, or about half of the usual rate for that time of year. In fact, the oil surplus only stood at 50 million barrels, while refined product supplies are actually in a deficit.

The agency slightly revised up its forecast for oil demand for 2018 by 90,000 bpd to 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d). Demand is particularly strong in China and India. Supply is still expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in the U.S., a huge figure, but unchanged from previous forecasts. Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 1.8 mb/d.

The IEA says that “market re-balancing is clearly moving ahead with key indicators – supply and demand becoming more closely aligned, OECD stocks falling close to average levels, the forward price curve in backwardation at prices that increasingly appear to be sustainable – pointing in that direction.” Inventories are expected to see a “very small stock build” in the first quarter, but then decline for the rest of the year.

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After Releasing Oil-Backed Petro, Venezuelan President Hints At Gold-Backed ‘Petro Oro’

After Releasing Oil-Backed Petro, Venezuelan President Hints At Gold-Backed ‘Petro Oro’

After Releasing Oil-Backed Petro, Venezuelan President Hints At Gold-Backed ‘Petro Oro’

After the launch of the Venezuelan government-backed cryptocurrency the Petro on Feb. 20, President Nicolas Maduro has already hinted at second government cryptocurrency soon to be released, according to government-sponsored news outlet TelSsur.

This time, the government-backed cryptocurrency will be backed not by oil, but by gold. During a Patria Para Todos [Fatherland For All] party event at the National Theater in Caracas, Maduro announced,

“The petro is a cryptocurrency unique in the world that is supported by oil, and I have a surprise that I will launch next week, the Petro Oro [gold], backed by gold, even more powerful.”

Since the petro’s Initial Coin Offering (ICO) opened on Feb. 20, $735 mln has allegedly been raised, according to Maduro’s Twitter. No official numbers for the ICO had been released by press time.


A grandes problemas, ¡grandes soluciones! Desde el primer minuto el juego arrancó bien, y arrancamos ganando: 4.777 millones de yuanes o 735 millones de dólares es el resultado inicial de las operaciones de intención de compra del Petro.


Some Venezuelans on Twitter have used the hashtag, “#AlFuturoConElPetro,” [the future with the petro], to support the release of the coin. User José David Cabello R wrote,

“#AlFuturoConElPetro against any meddling, against the economic war, against the blockade. For the peace and Venezuela.”

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“The Petro Is Born Today” – Maduro Launches Oil-Backed Crypto “For The Welfare Of Venezuela”

More than two months after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced his intention to launch the world’s first state-sponsored cryptocurrency to try and help Venezuela raise some badly needed foreign capital, the Petro – backed by 5 billion barrels of oil that are still waiting to be pumped out of a local oilfield – is now a reality.

Venezuela first tipped its hand at its intentions over the summer, when it appointed what we believe to be the world’s first “superintendent of cryptocurrency.”

The Venezuelan government has been saying for months that the Petro would be available for sale beginning Feb. 20. According to Bloomberg, it’ll be a few weeks – if not months – before we know anything about the cryptocurrency.

Developed in secret, the project was spearheaded by a 27-year-old blockchain engineer who, according to Bloomberg, earnestly believes in the power of crypto to rescue one of the world’s most repressive regimes from one of the worst economic disasters unfolding anywhere…

However, it turns out that the sale is the culmination of months of work, much of it done quietly by top bureaucrats loyal to Maduro. Working alongside them has been a 27-year-old Venezuelan technology entrepreneur named Gabriel Jimenez, who says he’s spent months helping develop the concept of the Petro and remains certain of its power to fix what ails Venezuela. “This is a lot more ambitious than just a cryptocurrency. It’s a project which I, along with a national and international team, have worked arduously to benefit this country,” says Jimenez. He says he hasn’t been paid for his work and will be compensated only in Petros if the token succeeds.

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Regime Change Fails: Is A Military Coup or Invasion of Venezuela Next?

Regime Change Fails: Is A Military Coup or Invasion of Venezuela Next?


Several signals point to a possible military strike on Venezuela, with high-ranking officials and influential politicians making clear that it is a distinct possibility.

Speaking at his alma mater, the University of Texas, on February 1, Secretary of State Tillerson suggested a potential military coup in in the country. Tillerson then visited allied Latin American countries urging regime change and more economic sanctions on Venezuela. Tillerson is also reportedly considering banning the processing or sale of Venezuelan oil in the United States and is discouraging other countries from buying Venezuelan oil.

In a series of tweets, Senator Marco Rubio, the Republican from Florida, where many Venezuelan oligarchs live, openly called for a military coup in Venezuela. “The world would support the Armed Forces in #Venezuela if they decide to protect the people & restore democracy by removing a dictator,” the former presidential candidate tweeted.

How absurd — remove an elected president with a military coup to restore democracy? Does that pass the straight face test? This refrain of Rubio and Tillerson seems to be the nonsensical public position of U.S. policy.

The U.S. has been seeking regime change in Venezuela since Hugo Chavez was elected in 1998. Trump joined Presidents Obama and Bush before him in continuing efforts to change the government and put in place a U.S.-friendly oligarch government.

They came closest in 2002 when a military coup removed Chavez. The Commander-in-Chief of the Venezuelan military announced Chavez had resigned and Pedro Carmona, of the Venezuelan Chamber of Commerce, became interim president.

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Trump Administration Planning Pinochet-type Coup in Venezuela

Trump Administration Planning Pinochet-type Coup in Venezuela

Trump Administration Planning Pinochet-type Coup in Venezuela

The retrograde Donald Trump administration is planning a military coup in Venezuela to oust the socialist government of President Nicolas Maduro. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, speaking at the University of Texas prior to embarking on a multi-nation tour throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, said the military in Latin America has often intervened in Latin American politics during times of serious crises.

Tillerson’s remarks conjured up scenes from America’s dark past in Latin America. To make matters worse, Tillerson invoked the imperialistic Monroe Doctrine of 1823, stressing that it is as “relevant today as it was the day it was written.” The Monroe Doctrine, throughout American history, has been used by the United States to justify military interventions in Latin America, often with the aim of establishing “banana republics” subservient to Washington’s whims.

According to a BBC report, Tillerson prefaced his augmented his remarks by stating that he was “not advocating regime change and that he had no intelligence on any planned action.” Richard Nixon’s National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger made similar remarks before the bloody September 11, 1973 Central Intelligence Agency-backed coup against Chile’s Socialist President Salvador Allende. While publicly rejecting any U.S. involvement in the destabilization of Chile’s democratically-elected government, Kissinger was working behind the scenes with Chile’s armed forces to overthrow and assassinate Allende. Eleven days after the Chilean coup, Kissinger was rewarded by Nixon by being named Secretary of State, along with keeping his National Security Adviser portfolio.

Ever since Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, came to power in 1999, the CIA has attempted at least one military coup — a putsch that was quickly reversed – in 2002, several “color revolution”-style street protests and disruptions, economic warfare, and CIA-initiated general strikes to force both Chavez and Maduro from power.

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Venezuela Will Back Its Cryptocurrency With 5 Billion Barrels Of Oil, Gold Deposits

Four months ago, in a not entirely surprising move meant to circumvent US economic sanctions on Venezuela, president Nicolas Maduro announced that his nation would stop accepting dollars  as payment for oil imports, followed just days later by the announcement that in a dramatic shift away from the Petrodollar and toward Beijing, Venezuela would begin publishing its oil basket price in Chinese yuan. The strategic shift away from the USD did not work quite as expect, because a little over two months later, both Venezuela and its state-owned energy company, PDVSA were declared in default on their debt obligations by ISDA, which triggered the respective CDS contracts as the country’s long-expected insolvency became fact.

Then, in early December, clearly fascinated and captivated by the global crypto craze, Maduro shocked the world by announcing the creation of the “Petro“, Venezuela’s official cryptocurrency “to advance in the matter of monetary sovereignty, to make financial transactions and to overcome the financial blockade”.


Nicolas Maduro dances with supporters in Caracas, Venezuela, December 1, 2017

“The objective is to advance in the Venezuelan economy and overcome the financial blockade, this allows us to continue in the economic and social development supported by Venezuelan riches,” said the president, explaining that his government will make a cryptocurrency issue “backed by reserves of Venezuelan gold, oil, gas and diamond wealth.”

Still, as we said when he first commented  on Venezuela’s bizarre foray into digital currencies, “it was not exactly clear how this PetroCoin would be backed by various natural resources when the whole point of cryptos is that they are not backed by anything, and as such it appears that what Maduro is trying to do is admit that the hyperinflating Bolivar has failed as a sovereign reserve, and the country is hoping to confuse its global trading partners enough into believing that it somehow had a new “bitcoin” on its hands, which like the real thing would then proceed to appreciate in value in the near future.

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Venezuela Just 24 Hours Away From Formal Declaration Of Default

Venezuela Just 24 Hours Away From Formal Declaration Of Default

Less than a week after Venezuela shocked the world by announcing it would proceed to restructure its massive external debt, even as it was within the grace period on hundreds of millions in unpaid interest expense, on Thursday the socialist nation confirmed it has never been closer to an official default after Reuters reported that Venezuela’s state oil-firm company, PDVSA, has not made a debt payments to India’s top oil producer ONGC for six months, and has previously used a Russian state-owned bank and another Indian energy company as intermediaries to make payments.

Reuters sources noted that PDVSA has made no payment since April on what was a $540 million backlog of dividends owed to ONGC for an investment the Indian firm made in a an energy project in Venezuela. Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro said last week that the country planned to restructure some $60 billion of bonds, much of it held by PDVSA, as the country struggles to meet debt repayments.

While ONGC Videsh –  the overseas investment arm of ONGC  confirmed to Reuters that PDVSA had fallen behind on the payments, but declined to give details on the delays.

Curiously, the Indian company appears not to be overly concerned about non-payment for half a year, and instead was willing to keep giving Maduro the benefit of the doubt: “They have got certain challenges at this stage,” ONGC Videsh said in an emailed response to Reuters’ questions. “They have assured that they are working on it (payment of dues). In due course it will be settled and follow up steps will be undertaken.” And just to underscore that it has no intention of pushing Venezuela into involuntary bankruptcy, ONGC added that “we have a good working relationship with PDVSA.”

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Is A Venezuelan Default Inevitable?

Is A Venezuelan Default Inevitable?

Venezuela

Bondholders, creditors, and any company with operations in Venezuela are all agog for news from Caracas after President Nicolas Maduro announced Venezuela will look to restructure its US$89 billion worth of debt to be able to continue servicing it.

Forecasts about what will happen next are all pessimistic, and that’s no wonder. By the end of next year, the government and state-owned PDVSA must repay debt obligations to the tune of US$13 billion, and foreign currency reserves are less than that already, at US$10 billion. What’s more, the country is subject to economic sanctions from the United States, which prohibit any U.S. entities from taking part in any business dealings with Venezuela, including debt restructuring.

It is these sanctions that many analysts view as the main reason for an unavoidable default. As Bloomberg author Katia Porzecanski wrote in a recent overview of the Venezuela situation, lack of access to U.S.-based banks and investment companies will make the debt restructuring initiative very difficult if not impossible, as debt restructuring almost invariably involves new debt issuance.

Some observers believe a default might be the lesser evil for Venezuela: imports are at multi-year lows and the population is suffering from shortages in basic goods including food and medicine. The government could stop servicing its debt and use what money remains in the state coffers to tackle the shortages.

A default, however, is in nobody’s favor, which makes the situation extremely complicated. Bondholders are just fine with payments coming in, even if they are late, as the bonds carry a quite attractive coupon. What they are not fine with is the possibility of a default followed by fights about the order of repayment of the various debts.

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Maduro Visits Putin, Proposes Global Oil Trade In Rubles, Yuan

Maduro Visits Putin, Proposes Global Oil Trade In Rubles, Yuan

Three weeks after the US imposed financial sanctions on Venezuela in an effort to cripple its economy and choke the Maduro regime, which in turn prompted Caracas to announce it would no longer receive or send payments in dollars, and that those who wished to trade Venezuelan crude would have to do so in Chinese Yuan, today during an energy summit held in Moscow, Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro proposed to expand his own personal blockade of the US, by proposing that all oil producing countries discuss creating a currency basket for trading crude and refined products. One which is no longer reliant on the (petro)dollar.

“Developing a new mechanism of controlling the oil market is necessary,” Maduro said on Wednesday at the Russian Energy Forum, being held in Moscow this week.

Quoted by RT, Maduro also blamed trade in crude oil paper futures as having an adverse impact on the oil market, which has undermined attempts by OPEC to stabilize prices. To counteract such “speculation”, Maduro proposed an alternative currency basket, one which is based not on the world’s reserve currency but includes the yuan, ruble, and other currencies, and which will mitigate the alleged adverse impact of futures trading.

 

Maduro’s proposal is merely the latest not so veiled hint at dedolarizing the global financial system by bypassing the petrodollar entirely, and rearranging a new currency basket determined by the world’s biggest oil producer, and largest oil importer.

Of course, Maduro is merely piggybacking on what China may already have in the works: recall that a month ago, the Nikkei Asian Review reported that China is preparing to launch a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan and convertible into gold, potentially creating the most important Asian oil benchmark and allowing oil exporters to bypass U.S.-dollar denominated benchmarks by trading in yuan.

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Venezuela Is About to Ditch the Dollar in Major Blow to US: Here’s Why It Matters

Venezuela Is About to Ditch the Dollar in Major Blow to US: Here’s Why It Matters

(ANTIMEDIA)  Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said Thursday that Venezuela will be looking to “free” itself from the U.S. dollar next week, Reuters reports. According to the outlet, Maduro will look to use the weakest of two official foreign exchange regimes (essentially the way Venezuela will manage its currency in relation to other currencies and the foreign exchange market), along with a basket of currencies.

According to Reuters, Maduro was referring to Venezuela’s current official exchange rate, known as DICOM, in which the dollar can be exchanged for 3,345 bolivars. At the strongest official rate, one dollar buys only 10 bolivars, which may be one of the reasons why Maduro wants to opt for some of the weaker exchange rates.

“Venezuela is going to implement a new system of international payments and will create a basket of currencies to free us from the dollar,” Maduro said in a multi-hour address to a new legislative “superbody.” He reportedly did not provide details of this new proposal.

Maduro hinted that the South American country would look to using the yuan instead, among other currencies.

“If they pursue us with the dollar, we’ll use the Russian ruble, the yuan, yen, the Indian rupee, the euro,” Maduro also said.

Venezuela sits on the world’s largest oil reserves but has been undergoing a major crisis, with millions of people going hungry inside the country which has been plagued with rampant, increasing inflation. In that context, the recently established economic blockade by the Trump administration only adds to the suffering of ordinary Venezuelans rather than helping their plight.

According to Reuters, a thousand dollars’ worth of local currency obtained when Maduro came to power in 2013 is now be worth little over one dollar.

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Venezuela Is Down To Its Last $10B As Debt Payments Loom

Venezuela Is Down To Its Last $10B As Debt Payments Loom

Maduro PDVSA

Venezuela’s central bank is down to its last $10.5 billion in foreign reserves, according to the institution’s most recent report on the country’s financials.

Over the remainder of 2017, Caracas needs to fund $7.2 billion in debt payments – an amount that it can only meet if oil prices spike far higher than the ongoing boosts caused by OPEC’s output reduction agreement.

Current reserves stand 66 percent lower than levels in 2011, when the government held $30 billion in foreign currencies to spend on loan repayments and other official business.

“The question is: Where is the floor?” Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America fixed income strategy at Nomura Holdings, told CNN Money. “If oil prices stagnate and foreign reserves reach zero, then the clock is going to start on a default.”

Venezuela’s financial report for 2016 stated that roughly $7.7 billion of the remaining $10.5 billion in foreign reserves had been preserved in gold. Last year, in order to fulfill debt obligations, Caracas began shipping gold to Switzerland.

The drastic fall in oil prices in 2014 and widespread corruption have both caused an economic meltdown in the South American country, where citizens had become accustomed to imported goods paid for by fossil fuel revenues.

President Nicolas Maduro has resorted to opening the country’s border with Colombia to allow Venezuelans to purchase necessary medical and day-to-day supplies.

Venezuelan state-run oil company PDVSA’s default is probable, according to the ratings agency Fitch, which cited the oil giant’s weak liquidity position and high amortization scheduled for 2017 as the causes of the default problem last month.

“Should oil prices remain around current levels, average recovery may lead to additional future defaults to further reduce obligations and allow for necessary transfers to the government,” said Fitch’s senior director Lucas Aristizabal.

The company has projected that its oil production will maintain its 23-year-low in 2017.

This Is The End: Venezuela Runs Out Of Money To Print New Money

This Is The End: Venezuela Runs Out Of Money To Print New Money

Back in February, when we commented on the unprecedented hyperinflation about the be unleashed in the Latin American country whose president just announced that he would expand the “weekend” for public workers to 5 days

… we joked that it is unclear just where the country will find all the paper banknotes it needs for all its new physical currency. After all, central-bank data shows Venezuela more than doubled the supply of 100-, 50- and 2-bolivar notes in 2015 as it doubled monetary liquidity including bank deposits. Supply has grown even as Venezuela has fewer U.S. dollars to support new bolivars, a result of falling oil prices.

This question, as morbidly amusing as it may have been to us if not the local population, became particularly poignant recently when for the first time, one US Dollar could purchase more than 1000 Venezuela Bolivars on the black market (to be exact, it buys 1,127 as of today).

And then, as if on cue the WSJ responded: “millions of pounds of provisions, stuffed into three-dozen 747 cargo planes, arrived here from countries around the world in recent months to service Venezuela’s crippled economy. But instead of food and medicine, the planes carried another resource that often runs scarce here: bills of Venezuela’s currency, the bolivar.

The shipments were part of the import of at least five billion bank notes that President Nicolás Maduro’s administration authorized over the latter half of 2015 as the government boosts the supply of the country’s increasingly worthless currency, according to seven people familiar with the deals.

More planes were coming: in December, the central bank began secret negotiations to order 10 billion more bills which would effectively double the amount of cash in circulation. That order alone is well above the eight billion notes the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank each print annually—dollars and euros that unlike bolivars are used world-wide.

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