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The world’s most powerful bank issues a major warning

The world’s most powerful bank issues a major warning

In 1869, a 48-year old Jewish immigrant from the tiny village of Trappstadt in Germany’s Bavaria region hung a shingle outside of his small office in lower Manhattan to officially launch his new business.

His name was Marcus Goldman, and the business he started, what’s now known as Goldman Sachs, has become the preeminent investment bank in the world with nearly $1 trillion in assets.

They didn’t get there by winning any popularity contests.

Goldman Sachs has been at the heart of nearly every major banking scandal in recent history.

The company has settled lawsuits on countless charges, ranging from exchange rate manipulation, stock price manipulation, demanding bribes from their own clients, front-running retail customers, and just about every shady business practice that would put money in their pockets.

Yet throughout it all, Goldman Sachs has been protected from any serious punishment by its friends in highest offices of government.

Four out of the last eight US Treasury Secretaries, including the current one, have formerly been on the payroll of Goldman Sachs.

Three current Federal Reserve Bank presidents are Goldman Sachs alumni.

The current president of the European Central Bank and the current head of the Bank of England are both former Goldman Sachs employees.

You get the idea.

On its face, there’s nothing wrong with government staffing its departments with top executives from the private sector; taxpayers would probably rather have someone who knows what s/he’s doing behind the desk rather than some random guy off the street.

But the consequent favoritism that results from this revolving door is blatant and repulsive.

Case in point: in 2008 when the financial system was going up in flames and most banks were suffering enormous losses, the government orchestrated a sweetheart bailout deal, of which Goldman was the primary beneficiary.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Using Gold To Hedge Korea Nuclear War Risk? This Is How To Do It, According To Goldman

Using Gold To Hedge Korea Nuclear War Risk? This Is How To Do It, According To Goldman

In a note on the role of gold as a “geopolitical hedge of last resort“, Goldman chief commodities strategist, Jeff Currie, writes that while it is tempting to blame the rally in gold prices on recent events in North Korea – which have certainly helped create a bid in gold – they only explain a fraction, or ~$15/oz of the more than $100/oz rally since mid-July. Instead, Goldman finds that the events in Washington over the past two months play a far larger role in the recent gold rally coupled by a sharply weaker dollar.

Currie writes that Goldman’s market strategists have found that Trump’s approval rating is a good proxy for this “Washington risk” with a high correlation to both interest rates and gold prices (see Exhibit 1).

The Washington risk premium is highly correlated to Trump’s approval rating

Goldman also notes that the Trump risk premium is reflected in both real interest rates and a weaker US dollar account for 85% of the price movement in gold prices this past year.

The Trump risk premium as reflected in real rates and the US dollar (as reflected in a basket of EM FX) explain 85% of the price movement

So what about the risk, or threat, from a North Korean escalation, potentially culminating with a nuclear exchange? Here Goldman is more skeptical about the causal linkage between the growing risk level and the price of gold.

The view that North Korea is a stable equilibrium is consistent with a lack of a large North Korean risk premium in gold prices and consistent with the history of gold prices.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Venezuela Headed For “Messiest Debt-Restructuring In History” Thanks To US Sanctions

Venezuela Headed For “Messiest Debt-Restructuring In History” Thanks To US Sanctions

After being effectively shut out from global financial markets – a situation that was made more precarious by US sanctions prohibiting purchases of Venezuelan debt (unless you’re buying them off Goldman Sachs, should the bank’s asset-management arm desire to liquidate its $3 billion “hunger bond” position) – Venezuela is drawing ever-nearer to what the Financial Times describes as potentially the “messiest debt restructuring in history.”

So far, Venezuela has managed to forestall a default by stripping assets from its state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, commonly referred to as PVDSA, and shaking down local institutions of spare dollars – not to mention the explicit financial support of China and Russia. Recently, Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company, helped support its troubled ally, which enjoys the largest crude reserves in the world, by offering billions of dollars in advance payments for future crude supplies. Thanks to a deal brokered by deceased former President Hugo Chavez, Venezuela has for years been Rosneft’s largest foreign supplier of crude. Last year, the oil giant accepted a 49.9% stake in PVDSA’s US-based subsidiary, Citgo, as collateral for a $1.5 billion loan.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro

However, thanks to the US sanctions, which prohibit purchases of newly issued debt and existing bonds that have so far not been sold outside of Caracas, the country will once again need to innovate or risk sliding into bankruptcy. Making matters all the more urgent, the country recently suffered a loss in US courts after a judge ruled that Canadian miner Crystallex can seize Venezuelan money held in a custody account at Bank of New York Mellon to cover a $1.4 billion judgment awarded by a World Bank tribunal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Goldman Sachs Regency

The Goldman Sachs Regency

There’s not many tears being shed over Steve Bannon’s departure. His ethno-nationalist and protectionist worldview are opposite to true notions of liberty, free markets and a minimalist state.

While Bannonism presented itself as a coherent alternative ideology to mainstream Big Government, it actually boiled down to an incoherent potpourri of cultural resentments and prejudices, economic shibboleths and amateur historical theorizing. His message appealed to the alt-Right because it proposed to replace oppressive statism with a more right wing version rooted in protectionism and nativism.

Notwithstanding the rotten essence of Bannonism, however, the firebrand self-promoter who was the Donald’s chief strategist got it right in his parting shots at his internal White House enemies. In so many words, he correctly asserted that the nation will now be ruled by a Goldman Sachs Regency and a team of generals.

The move embodies the essence of Albert Einstein’s famous definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

“The Trump presidency that we fought for, and won, is over,” Bannon told the conservative Weekly Standard on the Friday after his White House departure. “We will make something of this Trump presidency. But that presidency is over.”

The Donald will now function, as Robert Wenzel aptly described it, as “something of a tweet master frontman” with the Vampire Squid riding higher than ever before. Expect him to be riding even higher than when the George W. Bush handed a blank check to Wall Street for a bailout at the Treasury led by former Goldman CEO, Hank Paulson.

Goldman’s crew in the current White House – Gary Cohn, Steve Mnuchin, Dina Powell and Jared Kushner – are likely to bring about the final destruction of the Trump presidency. The cast of characters will eventually trigger a thundering collapse in the markets which will finally crush Goldman Sachs and its posse of gamblers and crony capitalist.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Donald Trump Finally Comes Out of the Closet

Donald Trump Finally Comes Out of the Closet

The firing of Steve Bannon is in my opinion the most significant event to happen during the Trump administration thus far. Moreover, it will have massive reverberations across the U.S. political spectrum for years and years to come. I wasn’t planning on writing today, but this news is so incredibly significant I find myself with little choice.

Taking a step back, part of the reason I was immediately able to see through the Trump con was due to my upbringing in New York City. The guy was constantly in the news my entire life, so I had a pretty decent understanding of where he was really coming from and what makes him tick. The mindset of your typical NYC-based billionaire real estate developer is filled with all sorts of perspectives and priorities, but thoughts of populism are not amongst them.

Trump used populism to get elected, and then as soon as he won, immediately appointed some of the most destructive oligarchs imaginable to run his administration. The reason I warned about this incessantly at the time, is because I learned the lesson from the Obama administration. People = policy, and the people Trump was elevating were almost unanimously awful. Irrespective of what you think of Bannon, him being out means Wall Street and the military-industrial complex is now 100% in control of the Trump administration. Prepare for an escalation of imperial war around the world and an expansion of brutal oligarchy.

The removal of Bannon is the end of even a facade of populism. This is now the Goldman Sachs Presidency with a thin-skinned, unthinking authoritarian as a figurehead. Meanwhile, guess who’s still there in addition to the Goldman executives? Weed obsessed, civil asset forfeiture supporting Jefferson Sessions. The Trump administration just bacame ten times more dangerous than it was before. With the coup successful, Trump no longer needs to be impeached.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India’s Economy Crashes After “Mind-Bogglingly Inane” Tax System Strikes Back

India’s Economy Crashes After “Mind-Bogglingly Inane” Tax System Strikes Back

With just a hint of schadenfreude, we note that, following our discussion of “how to destroy an economy”, India’s Composite PMI collapsed to 46.0 in July – its lowest on record (well below the kneejerk lows after demonetization in November) as the “mind-bogglingly inane” new tax system and demonetization efforts continue to crush the poor and feed the wealthy.

As Goldman Sachs notes India’s Nikkei Markit services PMI contracted in July after reaching a 8-month high in June, following a decline of manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. The fall was led by a significant decline in new business, suggesting a worsened business sentiment after the GST implementation on July 1.

Main points:

  • India’s Nikkei Markit services PMI contracted to 45.9 (the lowest reading since September 2013). Combined with the manufacturing PMI reported on Tuesday, the July composite PMI fell to 46.0, the lowest reading since March 2009.
  • Among subcomponents, the new business index fell the most to 45.2 (from 53.3 in June), reflecting disruptions caused by the GST.
  • As the press release from Markit Economics mentioned, “Most of the contraction was attributed to the implementation of the goods & services tax and the confusion it caused”.
  • The employment index for services fell to 48.9 (from 51.8 in June).
  • That said, the index for business expectations rose to a 11-month high to 62.3, suggesting optimism from services providers about the future once they have more clarity about the new tax system.
  • The output price index rose to 54.6 (from 51.0 in June), while the input price index moderated to 51.7.
  • Overall, PMI data for July suggest a significant drag on new business activity post the GST implementation. That said, optimism expressed by both manufacturers and services providers about the future is encouraging and suggest a potential improvement in activity once businesses adjust to the new tax system.

From 8-month highs to record lows… why does any one put any faith in the useless ‘soft’ surveys?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Wall Street Completely Owns the Trump Administration

Wall Street Completely Owns the Trump Administration

While America’s corporate press remains singularly obsessed with unproven and likely fabricated Russia-collusion conspiracy theories, Wall Street’s well on its way to getting away with financial murder thanks to an army of cronies embedded within the Trump administration. Indeed, Goldman Sachs running Donald Trump’s economic policy is perhaps the most concerning aspect of his Presidency when it comes to negative impacts on average citizens, yet it’s almost never placed at the forefront of the corporate press narrative.

Many of you probably recall headlines in recent weeks about how Trump might be in favor of “bringing back Glass-Steagall” as well as breaking up the big banks. These are two things I think are extraordinarily necessary and important, but it turns out Trump has no intention of actually doing any such thing.

As the title of Bloomberg’s recent article on the topic so perfectly sums up…

Here are a few excerpts from the extremely disturbing, yet entirely unsurprising piece:

On the first day of May, Donald Trump sat in the Oval Office and declared that his administration was taking a look at breaking up Wall Street’s biggest banks. If they ever took him seriously, it didn’t last.

Instead of cowering, Wall Street executives and lobbyists are crowing, getting more confident about ditching rules that have annoyed them for years. That’s because the Trump administration is appointing friendly regulators and signaling it will make life easier for bankers.

“Break up the banks? That ain’t going to happen,” said Rick Hohlt, who has advised and lobbied for lenders including Citigroup Inc. for three decades. “You need legislation to do that. And the chance of that is about zero.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Real Reasons Why Trump Has Flipped On His Campaign Promises

The Real Reasons Why Trump Has Flipped On His Campaign Promises

Back in December of 2016 I wrote an article titled ‘Trump Is Exactly Where The Elites Want Him’, which I think was very difficult for a large part of the liberty movement to read and accept. In that article I outlined the future of the Trump presidency; a future dominated by Washington insiders, Goldman Sachs internationalists and Neo-Con warmongers. Trump, at the very onset of his administration, broke one of his most important campaign promises — to “drain the swamp.” Instead, he filled his cabinet with all of the same swamp creatures he originally attacked; the same swamp creatures Hillary Clinton was notorious for serving.

I also warned in numerous articles that because of this initial broken promise, conservatives should not expect that Trump would fulfill most if any of his original plans. In the BEST CASE SCENARIO, Trump is surrounded by enemies dictating policy from every corner and corridor of the White House.

This article, of course, triggered quite a bit of wrath from hardcore Trump supporters. And, of course, time has so far proven I was right yet again.

The only argument at this point in defense of Trump is that it is still very early in his first year and that no president should be expected to accomplish much in just a few months. Okay, I’ll entertain that notion, but let’s be realistic here and look at the current circumstances.

As I write this, Congress is on the brink of forging a spending bill which essentially removes ALLbacking for Trump’s original projects, including the southern border wall. Now, given, the bill only provides funding for government until the end of September, but we have witnessed very little resistance from the Trump administration so far. Are we about to see the Republicans roll over yet again in the name of avoiding a government shutdown? I would say yes, for now.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

In A Battle Between Trump And The Federal Reserve, Who Really Wins?

In A Battle Between Trump And The Federal Reserve, Who Really Wins?

As a part of the increasingly obvious set-up of conservative movements by international banking interests and globalist think-tanks, I have noticed an expanding disinformation campaign which appears to be designed to wash the Federal Reserve of culpability for the crash of 2008 that has continued to fester to this day despite the many claims of economic “recovery.”  I believe this program is meant to set the stage for a coming conflict between the Trump Administration and the Fed, but what would be the ultimate consequences of such an event?

In my article ‘The False Economic Recovery Narrative Will Die In 2017’, I outlined the propaganda trap being established by globalist owned and operated media outlets like Bloomberg, in which they consistently claim that Donald Trump has “inherited” an economy in recovery and ascendancy from the Obama administration.  I thoroughly debunked their positions and “evidence” by showing how each of their fundamental indicators has actually been in steady decline since 2008, even in the face of massive monetary intervention and fiat printing by the Fed.

My greatest concern leading up to the 2016 election was that Trump would be allowed to win because he represents the perfect scapegoat for an economic crisis that central banks have been brewing for years. Whether or not Trump is aware of this plan cannot yet be proven, but as I have mentioned in the past, his cabinet of Goldman Sachs alumni and neo-con veterans hardly gives me confidence.  In the best case scenario, Trump is surrounded by enemies; in the worst case scenario, he is surrounded by friends.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

People Are Suddenly Very Worried About China

People Are Suddenly Very Worried About China

Considering that in the past 3 months the only daily topic of relevance for the media has been “Donald Trump” both in the US and abroad, one would assume that when it comes to global policy uncertainty the primary source would be, record S&P 500 paradoxically notwithstanding, the United States. One would also be wrong, because while Trump seemingly remains the only topic worthy of discussion blanketing the airwaves, as the following chart from Goldman demonstrates, it has been China where policy uncertainty has stealthily exploded in the past three months according to policyuncertainty.com, while making virtually no new headlines.

But how is it possible that China, which is seemingly far more “concerning” at this moment than it was a year ago when fears about Chinese financial conditions and devaluation led to global market selloff and pushed the S&P into correction, has had virtually no impact on risk assets so far in 2017: clearly either the chart above, or the market, is wrong.

Conveneintly it is the same Goldman which has published an exhaustive report laying out the key risks to China’s growth, many of which have been discounted by the market which erroneously assumes that just because the world went though a China “scare” period one year ago, that the world’s second biggest economy remains contained. Far from it.

For those pressed for time, below is the summary of Goldman’s “Risks To China’s growth In The Year of the rooster” report, from the team of MK Tan:

  • After meeting the 2016 growth target, Chinese policymakers are focused on stability ahead of the upcoming leadership reshuffling. This relative calm–we expect only a modest deceleration in growth in the Year of the Rooster—is coming at the cost of further increases in credit and other imbalances.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Recessionary” Demand Forces New York Harbor To Divert Gasoline Shipments

“Recessionary” Demand Forces New York Harbor To Divert Gasoline Shipments

Two weeks ago, Goldman analysts were stunned when they noted that in recent weeks gasoline demand in the US has collapsed to levels that suggest not all is well with the economy. In fact, as the bank’s oil expert Damien Courvalin said “to achieve the 5.9% decline suggested by the weekly data, our model requires PCE to contract 6%, in other words, a recession.”

Goldman then quickly changed the unpleasant narrative – one which would suggest that the US economy is in far worse shape than official data represent – and provided several alternative explanations why such a “sudden collapse is unlikely” and said that “we view the larger than seasonal ytd builds in US gasoline stocks as driven by transient supply factors rather than persistent demand issues.”

Perhaps, but so far those “transient” supply factors are only getting more chronic, and as supply continues to grow in anticipation of a demand bounce that refuses to materialize, leading to ever louder speculation that there is something very wrong with the US consumer…

… gasoline inventories have hit record levels, and nowhere is this more obvious than on the East Coast, where as Bloomberg writes overnight, “the biggest gasoline market in the U.S. is bursting at the seams.”

As a result, just like during last year’s unprecedented gasoline glut which, too, was supposed to be “transient”, but has only gotten worse, traders are now lining up to export gasoline and diesel from New York Harbor, an area that normally relies on fuel imports from Europe and eastern Canada.

While at least 6 cargoes that were headed to New York from Europe in January and early February were diverted to the Caribbean or the U.S. Gulf Coast, that wasn’t enough to stem the oversupply building up in terminals along the Eastern Seaboard. Record-high inventories in the region are now pushing prices low enough to turn the typical trade flow on its head.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Trump Draining the Swamp or Filling It?

trump-cohen

Trump has broken his word and is by no means draining the swamp — he is filling it. He has really betrayed a lot of people by his nomination of Gary D. Cohn as Director of the National Economic Council, which is a policy-making position for domestic and international economic issues.

The one legal firm in New York that defends the bankers is Sullivan & Cromwell. Trump has named a lawyer from that firm, Jay Clayton, to serve as Wall Street’s top cop as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. There is absolutely no possible way Clayton will call the bankers to account for anything. In fact, it would probably be a huge conflict of interest to bring charges against any bankers in New York when Sullivan & Cromwell will most likely represent them (including Goldman Sachs).

I am much less concerned about Steven Mnuchin, who left Goldman long ago, than I am with Cohn and the appointment of Clayton. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is a close friend of Cohn, and he set up the first meeting with Trump. I do not see how he will “drain the swamp” with ties to Goldman Sachs. These appointments are no different from Bush, Bill Clinton, or Hillary Clinton. I remain skeptical at this point of any real reform in the swamp.

So for all those who have sent emails betting on me advising Trump behind the scenes simply because I was seen walking into Trump Tower a few weeks ago: 1) I was not there to meet with Trump, and 2) I would be outnumbered by his Goldman advisers, so why bother? Sorry — I have no interest in getting involved with this crew. I do not want to have to count my fingers, assuming I even would shake hands.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Warns Of Imminent “Domino Impact” For Stocks From Bond Carnage, Soaring Dollar

Deutsche Warns Of Imminent “Domino Impact” For Stocks From Bond Carnage, Soaring Dollar

One of the more confounding aspects of the record bond selloff experienced in the past few days, is that it not only left broader equity indices unscathed, but took place as the Dow Jones hit a new record high. This, as Goldman explains, is problematic, given that the ‘low yields for longer’ theme, i.e., the infamous “Fed Model” which was used to justify record high stock multiples purely as a function of record low bond yields, that underpins the valuation of several financial assets is under scrutiny. As Goldman puts it: “the continued focus” on the spike in bond yields “seems to us justified.”

The reason, as Goldman’s Francesco Garzareli cautions, is that “some of the ongoing price action in fixed income ties up well with macro developments and remains overall favourable for risk assets. But other traits of the repricing seem inconsistent with fundamentals, and are potentially destabilizing for broader markets.” Where things get interesting, is where Goldman and Deutsche Bank diverge on their opinion whether the recent blow out in yields will serve to limit future equity gains.

 Goldman is more sanguine:
At around 2%, US 10-year Treasuries are now at the low end of the valuation band around our preferred measure of macro ‘fair value’ in which they fluctuate 68% of the time. Bonds in Germany, the UK and Japan are priced similarly on this dimension, as shown in Exhibit 1 below (by comparison, in the Summer, the degree of departure of yields from their ‘fair’ levels was a very rare event, occurring on average less than 5% of times).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not Even Goldman Has Any Clue How The BOJ Will “Control” The Yield Curve

Not Even Goldman Has Any Clue How The BOJ Will “Control” The Yield Curve

The biggest news overnight, and certainly far bigger than this afternoon’s non-event from Janet Yellen, was the significant change in monetary policy announced by the BOJ which (belatedly) unveiled its re-revised “QQE”… this time “with Yield Curve Control” (or “QQEWYCC“), a phrase used in lieu of “Reverse Operation Twist”, whereby the BOJ is hoping to steepen the yield curve and undo the damage it itseld created in January when it introduced NIRP for the first time to Japan, without doing much of anything else.

While we laid out the theoretical big picture elements of QQEWYCC both earlier, and two weeks ago, there is a small problem when one gets into the practical nuances of the proposed monetary experiment: nobody really knows how it will work, not even Goldman Sachs, whose BOJ expert Naohiko Baba admitted that he has no clue how the BOJ will actually execute its vision.

Confirming that the “JGB market has become increasingly distorted”, Baba says that

it is very unclear at this time exactly how the BOJ intends to “control” the yield curve in the future. Based only on the official statement, we think it is likely it will maintain the yield curve at more or less the current level for the time being. However, the question is how it will control the overall level and shape of the curve when financial and economic conditions change in the future. While the JGB market needs to take time to study the BOJ’s intentions, with interest rate movements lessening, we think the pricing function of interest rates as a mirror reflecting real economic and financial conditions will be increasingly lost.”

Ah yes, the old problem with nationalizing a market – whether it’s bonds or stocks – is that it is no longer, by definition, a market but merely a policy tool which has ceased to delivers any informational value whatsoever.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Major Problems Announced At One Of The Largest Too Big To Fail Banks In The United States

Major Problems Announced At One Of The Largest Too Big To Fail Banks In The United States

Wells FargoDo you remember when our politicians promised to do something about the “too big to fail” banks?  Well, they didn’t, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.  On Thursday, it was announced that one of those “too big to fail” banks, Wells Fargo, has been slapped with 185 million dollars in penalties.  It turns out that for years their employees had been opening millions of bank and credit card accounts for customers without even telling them.  The goal was to meet sales goals, and customers were hit by surprise fees that they never intended to pay.  Some employees actually created false email addresses and false PIN numbers to sign customers up for accounts.  It was fraud on a scale that is hard to imagine, and now Wells Fargo finds itself embroiled in a major crisis.

There are six banks in America that basically dwarf all of the other banks – JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.  If a single one of those banks were to fail, it would be a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions for our financial system.  So we need these banks to be healthy and running well.  That is why what we just learned about Wells Fargois so concerning…

Employees of Wells Fargo (WFC) boosted sales figures by covertly opening the accounts and funding them by transferring money from customers’ authorized accounts without permission, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Los Angeles city officials said.

An analysis by the San Francisco-headquartered bank found that its employees opened more than two million deposit and credit card accounts that may not have been authorized by consumers, the officials said. Many of the transfers ran up fees or other charges for the customers, even as they helped employees make incentive goals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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