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Tag Archives: emerging markets
Weekly Commentary: Instability
Weekly Commentary: Instability With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market Instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, Indian rupee and others traded to record lows versus the greenback. The South African rand “flash crashed” […]
5 Signs That Global Financial Markets Are Entering A Bear Market, And 11 Ways That You Can Get Prepared For The Chaos That Is Coming…
5 Signs That Global Financial Markets Are Entering A Bear Market, And 11 Ways That You Can Get Prepared For The Chaos That Is Coming… We haven’t seen carnage like this in the global financial marketplace in quite some time. On Wednesday, U.S. stocks were down some, but things were much, much worse around the […]
The Anatomy of a Crisis: A Strong Dollar and Disappearing Liquidity
The Anatomy of a Crisis: A Strong Dollar and Disappearing Liquidity Since March – the dollar’s rallied over 7%. And it’s caused the Emerging Markets to implode. But the bigger problem is what lies ahead. And that’s a global dollar shortage – which the mainstream continues to ignore. . . I’ve touched on this a […]
Turkey: A harbinger of a global debt crisis?
Turkey: A harbinger of a global debt crisis? The economic crisis brewing in Turkey seems to have surprised many. This was probably, at least partly, due to the ‘period of tranquility’ created by the central banks with theirs ‘unorthodox measures’. Many seem to have imagined that the “synchronized global growth” spurt were here to last. […]
Here’s How “External Dollar Debt” Produces An “Emerging Market Crisis”
Here’s How “External Dollar Debt” Produces An “Emerging Market Crisis” Emerging market currencies are collapsing pretty much everywhere these days. But it’s safe to assume that most people don’t understand exactly what’s causing this outbreak, why it’s happening now, or what “external dollar debt” has to do with it. So here’s a quick primer followed […]
You Should Fear the Emerging Market Debt Bubble
You Should Fear the Emerging Market Debt Bubble Global debt has ballooned since the financial crisis as central banks have distorted markets and fueled debt bubbles in particular. A lot of the increase in global debt has come from emerging market (EM) economies, especially China. In fact, a record amount of EM debt has accumulated […]
Boiling A Turkey
Boiling A Turkey There is an age old fable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will try and save itself. However, if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive […]
Economic Contagion? Central Banks Are The Real Culprit
Economic Contagion? Central Banks Are The Real Culprit The mainstream news has been awash lately in talk over the danger of economic “contagion,” primarily due to lack of dollar liquidity in emerging markets. This lack of liquidity is being pegged as a trigger for instability in stocks, bonds and forex markets around the world, and […]
That Escalated Quickly: The Emerging Market Currency Crisis Of 2018 Threatens To Destabilize The Entire Global Financial System
That Escalated Quickly: The Emerging Market Currency Crisis Of 2018 Threatens To Destabilize The Entire Global Financial System We haven’t seen emerging market currencies crash like this in over a decade, and analysts are warning that if this continues we could witness a devastating global debt crisis. Over the past decade, there has been an […]
Weekly Commentary: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff)
Weekly Commentary: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff) The Turkish lira sank 13.7% in chaotic Friday trading. The lira’s 21.0% “worst week in 17 years” collapse pushed y-t-d losses to 41.1%. Turkish 10-year yields spiked to almost 21%, before retreating somewhat. After beginning the year at 155, Turkey sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spiked 166 bps […]
Will Turkey be the first domino to fall?
Will Turkey be the first domino to fall? There has been many financial crises over the past century, yet few of those provided much of a warning that they were about to hit. It only becomes clear after the fact. We then begin to hear speeches on what there was to learn and how to avert any […]
Weekly Commentary: “Periphery to Core Crisis Dynamics”
Weekly Commentary: “Periphery to Core Crisis Dynamics” The renminbi traded at 6.8935 in early-Friday trading, with intensified selling pushing the Chinese currency to its lowest level (vs. the $) since May 26, 2017. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was compelled to support their currency, imposing a 20% reserve requirement on foreign-exchange forward contracts (raising […]
Canary in the Coal-MIne–Emerging Market Contagion
CANARY IN THE COAL-MINE – EMERGING MARKET CONTAGION Emerging market currencies, bonds and stocks have weakened Fears about the impact of US tariffs have been felt here most clearly The risk to Europe and Japan is significant Turkey may be the key market to watch As US interest rates continue to normalise and US tariffs […]
Emerging Market Crisis Spreads To The Core, Central Banks Face Catch-22
Emerging Market Crisis Spreads To The Core, Central Banks Face Catch-22 One of the things giving “data-driven” central banks wiggle room on their pledge to tighten monetary policy is the fact that there are several definitions of inflation. In the US the thing most people think of as inflation is the consumer price index, or […]
India Central Bank Intervenes As Rupee Crashes To Record Low
India Central Bank Intervenes As Rupee Crashes To Record Low Just weeks after Urjit Patel, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, wrote an op-ed in the FT warning that should the US maintain its current pace of monetary policy tightening, it could have serious repercussions for the global economy, it is… It was the […]
