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Tag Archives: credit bubble bulletin
Weekly Commentary: Transitory Histrionics
Weekly Commentary: Transitory Histrionics May 3 – Financial Times (Sam Fleming): “Having lamented low inflation as one of the great challenges facing central bankers today in March, Jay Powell on Wednesday wrongfooted many investors with comments that seemed to play down the gravity of the problem. The new message from the Federal Reserve chairman — […]
Weekly Commentary: Officially on “Periphery” Contagion Watch
Weekly Commentary: Officially on “Periphery” Contagion Watch This week saw all-time highs in the S&P500, the Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq100, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Microsoft’s market capitalization reached $1 TN for the first time. First quarter GDP was reported at a stronger-than-expected 3.2% pace. So why would the market this week increase the probability […]
Market Commentary: Faux Statesmanship
Market Commentary: Faux Statesmanship April 5 – New York Times (Dealbook): “’It doesn’t take a genius’ to know capitalism needs fixing. Capitalism helped Ray Dalio build his investment empire. But in a lengthy LinkedIn post, the Bridgewater Associates founder says that it isn’t working anymore. Mr. Dalio writes that he has seen capitalism ‘evolve in […]
Weekly Commentary: No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works
Weekly Commentary: No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works My interest was piqued by a Friday Bloomberg article (Ben Holland), “The Era of Cheap Money Shows No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works.” “Monetary policy is supposed to work like this: cut interest rates, and you’ll encourage businesses and households to borrow, invest and spend. […]
Weekly Commentary: Q4 2018 Z.1 “Flow of Funds”
Weekly Commentary: Q4 2018 Z.1 “Flow of Funds” I’ve been anxiously awaiting the Fed’s Q4 2018 Z.1 “Flow of Funds” report. It provided the first comprehensive look at how this period’s market instability affected various sectors within the financial system. From ballooning Broker/Dealer balance sheets to surging “repo” lending to record Bank loan growth – […]
Weekly Commentary: Dudley on Debt and MMT
Weekly Commentary: Dudley on Debt and MMT December’s market instability and resulting Fed capitulation to the marketplace continue to reverberate. At this point, markets basically assume the Fed is well into the process of terminating policy normalization. Only a couple of months since completing its almost $3.0 TN stimulus program, markets now expect the ECB […]
Weekly Commentary: Dudley on Debt and MMT
Weekly Commentary: Dudley on Debt and MMT December’s market instability and resulting Fed capitulation to the marketplace continue to reverberate. At this point, markets basically assume the Fed is well into the process of terminating policy normalization. Only a couple of months since completing its almost $3.0 TN stimulus program, markets now expect the ECB […]
Weekly Commentary: No Mystery
Weekly Commentary: No Mystery January 30 – Financial Times (Sam Fleming): “After putting traders on notice six weeks ago to expect further increases in US interest rates in 2019, the Federal Reserve… executed one of its sharpest U-turns in recent memory. Leaving rates unchanged at 2.25-2.5%, Jay Powell, Fed chairman, unveiled new language that opened […]
Weekly Commentary: Monetary Disorder 2019
Weekly Commentary: Monetary Disorder 2019 The S&P500 advanced 6.5% in 2019’s first 13 trading sessions. The DJ Transports are up 9.2% y-t-d. The broader market has outperformed. The small cap Russell 2000 sports a 9.9% gain after 13 sessions, with the S&P400 Midcap Index rising 9.3%. The Nasdaq Composite has gained 7.9% y-t-d (Nasdaq100 up […]
Market Commentary: Issues 2019
Market Commentary: Issues 2019 When I began posting the CBB some twenty years ago, I made a commitment to readers: “I’ll call it as I see it – and let the chips fall where they will.” Over the years, I made a further commitment to myself: Don’t be concerned with reputation – stay diligently focused […]
Weekly Commentary: Global Markets’ Plumbing Problem
Weekly Commentary: Global Markets’ Plumbing Problem “Goldilocks with a capital ‘J’,” exclaimed an enthusiastic Bloomberg Television analyst. The Dow was up 747 points in Friday trading (more than erasing Thursday’s 660-point drubbing) on the back of a stellar jobs report and market-soothing comments from Fed Chairman “Jay” Powell. December non-farm payrolls surged 312,000. The strongest […]
Weekly Commentary: Thoughts on Liquidity
Weekly Commentary: Thoughts on Liquidity “Money” challenged – and often confounded – economic thinkers for centuries. It functions both as a “medium of exchange” and “unit of account.” Simple enough. Too often the focus has been how to use money to stimulate economic activity and achieve political gains. From my perspective, money’s importance rests with […]
Weekly Commentary: Powell Federal Reserve Lowers “Fed Put” Strike Price
Weekly Commentary: Powell Federal Reserve Lowers “Fed Put” Strike Price I have little confidence history will get this right. Today’s overwhelming consensus view holds that Powell this week committed a major policy blunder. After his early-October “we’re a long way from neutral” “rookie mistake”, he has followed with a rate increase right in the throes […]
Weekly Commentary: The Perils of Inflationism
Weekly Commentary: The Perils of Inflationism December 13 – Financial Times (Chris Giles and Claire Jones): “When the European Central Bank switches off its money-printing press at the turn of this year and stops buying fresh assets, it will mark the end of a decade-long global experiment in how to stave off economic meltdowns. Quantitative […]
Weekly Commentary: Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability
Weekly Commentary: Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability Upon the public release of Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech came the Bloomberg headline: “Powell: No Preset Policy Path, Rates ‘Just Below’ Neutral Range.” When the Fed Chairman began his presentation to the New York Economic Club just minutes later, the Dow had already surged 460 points. From Powell’s […]
