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Debt, Deficits and the Cost of Free Lunches
DEBT, DEFICITS AND THE COST OF FREE LUNCHES It seems that every generation or two, fundamental economic ideas are questioned and challenged. The reasonable and important idea that governments should balance their budgets on an annual basis was challenged in the 1930s by the rise of Keynesian Economics and the counter-argument that deficit spending was […]
Should the Fed Tamper With the Quantity of Money?
SHOULD THE FED TAMPER WITH THE QUANTITY OF MONEY? Most economists are of the view that a growing economy requires a growing money stock, because economic growth gives rise to a greater demand for money, which must be accommodated. Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of […]
In Praise of Hayek’s Masterwork
IN PRAISE OF HAYEK’S MASTERWORK Friedrich von Hayek first published The Road to Serfdom in 1944. His book was subsequently popularised by a condensed version in The Reader’s Digest. This article re-examines Hayek’s theme in the context of today’s economics and politics to see what lessons we can learn from it, and whether personal freedom […]
Debasing the Baseless–Modern Monetary Theory
DEBASING THE BASELESS – MODERN MONETARY THEORY Populist politicians are turning to Modern Monetary Theory Fiscal stimulus has not led to significant inflation during the last decade MMT is too radical to be adopted in full but the allure of fiscal expansion is great Asset markets will benefit over the medium-term A recent post from […]
Chapter 8: Negotiable Debt, A Bit of History
CHAPTER 8: NEGOTIABLE DEBT, A BIT OF HISTORY This chapter is a quick summary and clarification of what happens when debt becomes negotiable. The focus is on money, but other aspects are referred to, highlighting the general undesirability of making debt negotiable. There will be some repetition of material previously covered, for the sake of […]
Chapter 7: Secrets, Ignorance and Lies: Money, Credit and Debt
CHAPTER 7: SECRETS, IGNORANCE AND LIES: MONEY, CREDIT AND DEBT. “The tyranny of fraud is not less oppressive than that of force.” John Taylor of Caroline, Virginia (1814). Our money system relies on people not understanding it. If people understood it, they would demand reform.[1] The most outrageous falsehoods are propagated daily about money and banking. […]
How Asset Inflation Will End–This Time
HOW ASSET INFLATION WILL END — THIS TIME Life after death for asset inflation: this is what happens when “speculative fever” remains high even after monetary inflation has paused. This may well have been the situation in global markets during 2019 so far. But history and principle suggest that life after death in this monetary […]
Can Expansionary Fiscal and Monetary Policies Counter Recessions?
CAN EXPANSIONARY FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES COUNTER RECESSIONS? When signs of economic weakness emerge, most economics experts are quick to embrace the ideas of John Maynard Keynes. For most economists the Keynesian remedy is always viewed with positive benefits- if in doubt just push more money and boost government spending to resolve any possible economic […]
Being and Time (And Central Banks)
BEING AND TIME (AND CENTRAL BANKS) People value present goods more highly than future goods. For instance, an apple available today is considered more valuable than the same apple available in, say, one month. This is expressive of time preference — which is an undeniable fact, a category of human action. The sentence “Humans act” is a […]
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory
THE PROBLEM WITH MODERN MONETARY THEORY According to the Modern Money Theory (MMT), money is a thing that the State decides upon. Following the ideas of the German economist, Georg Knapp, the MMT simply regards money as a token. For instance, when an individual places a coat in the cloakroom of a theatre, he receives […]
Chapter 6: American, Won and Lost
CHAPTER 6: AMERICA, WON AND LOST. After the United States gained its independence from Britain, it became powerful in the world in two very different ways: as an idea, and as a reality. ‘America the idea’ is a land of freedom and democracy, equality and opportunity, promoting these aspirations and values across the world. ‘America […]
Changes in Government Deposits and Money Supply
CHANGES IN GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS AND MONEY SUPPLY The US debt ceiling suspension, signed in February 2018, expires at the beginning of March this year. Some commentators are of the view that the US Treasury must carry out special measures if it expects a delay in raising the debt ceiling in March. The Treasury would have […]
Capital Flows–Is a Reckoning Nigh?
CAPITAL FLOWS – IS A RECKONING NIGH? Borrowing in Euros continues to rise even as the rate of US borrowing slows The BIS has identified an Expansionary Lower Bound for interest rates Developed economies might not be immune to the ELB Demographic deflation will thwart growth for decades to come In Macro Letter – No 108 […]
Don’t Be So Negative
DON’T BE SO NEGATIVE “FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS IN A DOWNTURN WE COULD CONSIDER QUANTITATIVE EASING, NEGATIVE RATES.” Tweet by Reuters’ Jennifer Ablan, reporting on a speech by John Williams of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at the Economic Club of New York, 6 March 2019. “Because NIRP worked so well in Europe and […]
Importance of Model Building in Economics
IMPORTANCE OF MODEL BUILDING IN ECONOMICS In the natural sciences, a laboratory experiment can isolate various elements and their movements. There is no equivalent in the discipline of economics. The employment of model building is an attempt to produce a laboratory where controlled experiments can be conducted. The idea of having such a laboratory is […]
