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For the second time in less than two months, the Bank of Canada has raised interest rates.

On Wednesday, the central bank raised its overnight lending rate by a quarter per cent to 1 per cent.

The move surprised many who weren’t expecting a rate increase until later this Autumn.

Just like last time, the rationale behind higher rates was centred around the Bank of Canada’s belief that the economy is growing faster than expected.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said, “The level of GDP growth is now higher than the bank expected.”

Of course, this assumes that GDP measures anything.

The Canadian loonie surged after the announcement, climbing to 82 cents U.S.

The decision reinforces the message that easy money and low-interest rates are coming to an end. Of course, the bursting of Canada’s real estate bubble could reverse direction for the bank, using these recent rate gains as leverage to cut rates in order to “stimulate” the deflating economy.

But until then, analysts are expecting more rate hikes since many have confused consumer indebtedness and rising prices as economic strength.

The Bank of Canada won’t confirm these predictions since, according to the central bank’s statement, price controls on interest rates are, “predetermined and will be guided by incoming economic data and financial market developments.”

Of course, the Bank of Canada isn’t clueless when it comes to higher rates and indebted Canadian households. In the rate hike statement, the bank promised that “close attention will be paid to the sensitivity of the economy to higher interest rates,” given “elevated household indebtedness.”

The bank’s next scheduled rate-setting is Oct. 25.

All in all, today’s announcement puts interest rates back to where they were in January 2015, before Poloz made two surprising “emergency rate cuts” to deal with falling oil prices.

Toronto Home Price Bubble Descends into Bear Market

September 6, 2017

Toronto Home Price Bubble Descends into Bear Market

With surprise rate hike, Bank of Canada turns against housing market.

Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area, the largest housing market in Canada, plunged 34.8% in August compared to a year ago, to 6,357 homes, with sales of detached homes and semi-detached homes getting eviscerated:

Sales by type:

Detached houses -41.6%
Semi-detached houses -37.3%
Townhouses -27.5%:
Condos -28.0%.

Even as total sales plunged, the number of active listings of homes for sale soared 65% year-over-year to 16,419, with 11,523 new listings added in August, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB).

“The relationship between sales [plunging] and listings in the marketplace today [soaring] suggests a balanced market,” the report explained, adding hopefully:

“If current conditions are sustained over the coming months, we would expect to see year-over-year price growth normalize slightly above the rate of inflation. However, if some buyers move from the sidelines back into the marketplace, as TREB consumer research suggests may happen, an acceleration in price growth could result if listings remain at current levels.”

And the average price of all homes, at C$732,292 in August, plunged 20.5% from the crazy peak in April (C$920,761). By this measure, it has now entered a bear market.

The average price in April had shot up 30% year-over-year. To cool this nutty business, the Ontario government introduced a laundry list of measures on April 20. It included most prominently a 15% transfer tax on nonresident foreign speculators. That appears to have done the trick.

Given the enormous price gains in recent years, the market remains hyper-inflated, and the four-month downturn into a bear market hasn’t even brought prices back to the year-ago level, with the average price for all types of housing up 3%, and the condo price up 21.4% year-over-year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Loonie Soars After Bank Of Canada Unexpectedly Hikes Rates By 25 bps

September 6, 2017

Loonie Soars After Bank Of Canada Unexpectedly Hikes Rates By 25 bps

With only 6 of 33 forecasters predicting a rate hike in today’s Bank of Canada announcement, it was inevitable: the Bank of Canada surprised a good 75% of the market, and triggered massive stop loss orders in the looni, when moments ago it announced it hiked rates by 25bps to 1%, sending the USDCAD lower by nearly 300 pips…

… the biggest spike in the loonie since March 2016, and the highest in two years.

According to the BOC statement, “removal of some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus in place is warranted” given stronger than expected economic performance while adding that “future monetary policy decisions are not predetermined” and will be guided by economic data and financial-market developments as they “inform the outlook for inflation.”

The Central bank also said that “close attention will be paid to the sensitivity of the economy to higher interest rates” given elevated household indebtedness. The bank will give particular focus to evolution of economy’s potential and labour market conditions, while highlighting that inflation remains below 2% but has evolved “largely as expected” since July MPR.

In the statement the central bank also highlighted that “excess capacity remains in labour market, wage and price pressures more subdued than historical relationships suggest” while “geopolitical risks and uncertainties around international trade and fiscal policies remain.”

Some analysts have highlighted that in the statement’s forward guidance, the central bank removed its inflation outlook, and replaced it with an outlook on potential output and the labor market.

Finally, the bank expects moderation of pace of economic growth in 2H 2017, but GDP level higher than expected in July MPR.

The full statement is below (link):

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Canadian Cointoss: Bank Of Canada Monetary Policy Decision Preview

September 6, 2017

The Canadian Cointoss: Bank Of Canada Monetary Policy Decision Preview

From RanSquawk

The majority expects the BoC to leave its overnight rate unchanged at 0.75%. Only 6 of 33 surveyed expect the BoC to hike this time out, while the OIS curve prices in a 45% chance of a hike.
A strong Q2 GDP release and the ensuing solid handover to Q3 has put a hike on the table at the upcoming decision.
Many are still cautious regarding further hikes owing to a lack of inflationary pressure.

The majority expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to leave its overnight rate unchanged at 0.75%. Only 6 of the 33 surveyed in the latest Reuters poll are looking for a hike at the upcoming meeting, while 24 expect the BoC to hike at its October meeting. The remainder expect the next hike to come in January. Markets are more aggressive following a strong June retail sales release and impressive Q2 GDP release (4.5% on a QQ annualised basis, which was above the top end of expectations). Swaps are currently pricing in a circa 45% chance of a hike this week (odds stood at circa 20% pre-GDP), with an October hike baked into the curve.

July’s decision saw the BoC raise rates for the first time in 7 years after a slew of central bank rhetoric paved the way for the hike in the weeks running in to the decision, although the initial change of tone caught both markets and economists off guard. The hike still caught some unaware, as many still believed that the central bank lacked evidence of notable inflationary pressure, with the BoC’s 3 core measures all tracking below 2%.

July’s decision was accompanied by the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) with the latest batch of projections available below.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Rings The Alarm On Canada’s Economy

July 13, 2017

IMF Rings The Alarm On Canada’s Economy

Shortly after yesterday’s rate hike by the Bank of Canada, its first since 2010, we warned that as rates in Canada begin to rise, the local economy which has seen a striking decline in hourly earnings in the past year, which remains greatly reliant on a vibrant construction sector, and where households are the most levered on record, if there is anything that can burst the local housing bubble, it is tighter monetary conditions. And a bubble it is, as the chart below clearly demonstrates… one just waiting for the pin, which as we suggested yesterday in “”Canada Is In Serious Trouble” Again, And This Time It’s For Real“, may have finally been provided thanks to the Bank of Canada itself.

Now, one day after our warning, the IMF has doubled down and on Thursday issued its latest consultation report, in which it said that while Canada’s economy has regained some momentum, it warned that business investment remains weak, non-energy exports have underperformed, housing imbalances have increased and uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the United States could hurt the recovery.

The report – which concerningly was written even before the BOC hiked rates by 0.25% – also said the Bank of Canada’s current monetary policy stance is appropriate, and it cautioned against tightening.

“While the output gap has started to close, monetary policy should stay accommodative until signs of durable growth and higher inflation emerge,” the IMF said, adding that rate hikes should be “approached cautiously”.

Directors noted that Canada’s financial sector is well capitalized and has strong profitability, but that there are rising vulnerabilities in the housing sector… Directors agreed that monetary policy should stay accommodative and be gradually tightened as signs of durable growth and
inflation pressures emerge.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Inconvenient Truth of Consumer Debt

June 11, 2017

The Inconvenient Truth of Consumer Debt

It’s acceptable to build infinitely high levels of household debt — as long as rates never rise.

Ready for a rainy day?Photographer: Anoek De Groot/AFP/Getty Images

Oh, but for the days the hawks had a hero in Sydney. Against the backdrop of a de facto currency war, the Reserve Bank of Australia stood as a steady pillar of strength. The RBA held the line on interest rates, maintaining a floor of 2.5 percent, even as its global central bank peers drove rates to the zero bound and beyond into negative territory.

The abrupt end to the commodities supercycle drove the RBA to join the global currency war. The mining-dependent nation’s economy was so debilitated that policy makers felt they had no choice but to ease financial conditions. In February 2015, after an 18-month honeymoon, the RBA reduced its official rate to 2.25 percent, marking the start of a cycle that ended last August with the fourth cut to a record low of 1.5 percent.

The Bank of Canada has taken a similar journey in recent years. It embarked upon a mild tightening campaign in 2010 that raised the overnight loan rate from a record low of 0.25 percent to 1 percent in September 2010. The bank maintained that level until early 2015. Two weeks before the RBA’s first cut, the Bank of Canada lowered rates to 0.75 percent. The January move, which shocked the markets, was followed in July 2015 with an additional ease to 0.5 percent, where it remains today.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who replaced Mark Carney after he departed to head the Bank of England, explained the moves as necessary to counter the downside risks to inflation emanating from the oil price shock to the country’s economy.

Two resource-rich economies reacting similarly to body blows is intuitive enough. They eased the pressure on their given economies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Toronto Housing Market Is About To Collapse By This Measure

May 5, 2017

The Toronto Housing Market Is About To Collapse By This Measure

With the collapse of Home Capital Group focusing the world’s attention on the Canadian real estate market, nowhere is the subprime debt time bomb more likely to go off than Toronto, which as we recently noted “has gone nuts.”

Even Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz (who declined to comment on questions about Home Capital Group and whether he’s worried about contagion), noted that Toronto is out control tonight while answering questions following a speech in Mexico City…

“pretty sure recent gains in Toronto home prices were not sustainable and that the city’s housing market had elements of speculation“

“Financial stability is part of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision making, but the central bank’s primary mission is inflation targeting,… it would be odd to use interest rates to target home prices in just one city.”

Perhaps Mr. Poloz… But, as we noted previously, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that this will end in tears. Even the big Canadian banks are fretting. “Let’s drop the pretense. The Toronto housing market and the many cities surrounding it are in a housing bubble,” Bank of Montreal Chief Economist Doug Porter warned clients. But the bubble’s deflation would push the city into a fiscal and financial sinkhole

Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis, explained the basic supply and demand problem:

“Annual rates of price growth continued to accelerate in March as growth in sales outstripped growth in listings,” he said.

“A substantial period of months in which listings growth is greater than sales growth will be required to bring the GTA housing market back into balance.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Bank of Canada Should “Cease and Desist”

April 16, 2017

The Bank of Canada Should “Cease and Desist”

“Beneath the symbol

We’ll all assemble

Oh how we’ll fly

Oh how we’ll tremble”

— Captain Beefheart, “Ice Cream for Crow”

If interest rates are the symbol beneath of which we all assemble, then there are some bad times ahead.

But Canada’s “leading economists,” say interest rates are “too blunt a tool” to cool the housing market.

Tomorrow the Bank of Canada will deliver a rate decision and an accompanying monetary policy report. Governor Stephen Poloz isn’t expected to raise rates anytime soon, but he’ll likely face some tough questions about the connection between low rates and the “hot” housing market.

Of course, he deserves every hard question thrown at him. And it’s nice that journalists are actually starting to question the obvious connection between low-interest rates and the housing bubble.

With Canadians across the country locked out of their local housing markets, and with foreign buyers using Canadian property to protect their wealth from destructive communist dictatorships, frustration needs an outlet and it looks as if Poloz and the BoC are, finally, in the crosshairs.

But that doesn’t mean Poloz will listen. After all, the central bank is supposed to remain “independent” from democratic government and popular opinion. Poloz is making his decisions based on his misunderstanding of the economy, not the will of the mob.

As Avery Shenfeld, CIBC Capital Markets’ chief economist, told BNN in an email, “The Bank of Canada will likely stick to its view that house prices are best dealt with through macro-prudential policies particular to that market, with the interest rate setting used to steer the economy overall,

Meaning, let the banks and federal government deal with the issue. The BoC will do what it can, but it will not include raising rates.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Joyce Nelson, Mark Anielski on “It’s Our Money”

April 3, 2017

Joyce Nelson, Mark Anielski on “It’s Our Money”

A handful of Canadians are waging a noble fight to return their central bank, the Bank of Canada, to its chartered role as a low and no-interest financier of government projects and the public interest. That case is at the center of a new book called Beyond Banksters: Resisting the New Feudalism. We speak with author Joyce Nelson about how the global debt cartel of international finance is creating a permanent trap for citizens the world over. And we visit with economic strategist Mark Anielski about his book The Economics of Happiness – a different way of measuring wealth.

Listen here.

Conference Board sees modest economic growth in 2017

February 23, 2017

Conference Board sees modest economic growth in 2017

Alberta expected to lead all provinces in economic growth this year

Retail sales activity is expected to cool this year and next, the Conference Board of Canada says.

Retail sales activity is expected to cool this year and next, the Conference Board of Canada says. (Chris Wattie/Reuters)

“The plunge in energy investment is expected to slow and we should finally see a resurgence in non-energy investment,” the Conference Board said.

“Canadian exports are also expected to fare a little better as the U.S. economy picks up speed and the Canadian dollar remains weak,” the group said, but added that exports levels will still remain low by historical standards.

Federal stimulus spending is expected to give a boost to national economic growth, although provincial belt-tightening is forecast to offset some of that.

Looking ahead to 2018, “dismal” business investment levels and slowing labour force growth mean it is unlikely there will be any acceleration in GDP growth, they said.

Retail sector seen cooling

The group said that consumer spending has been a “bright spot” in the economy, seeing increases in recent years despite weak job growth in some provinces and soft wage gain.

“However, the ability to sustain these increases will be limited by the run-up in household debt over the last several years,” they said.

The Conference Board sees retail sales growth cooling from 3.8 per cent in 2016 to 2.9 per cent this year and down to 1.9 per cent in 2018.

The soft economic growth expected for this year and next mean the Bank of Canada is expected to hold off boosting interest rates until 2018.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian Housing Bubble, Debt Stir Financial Crisis Fears

September 23, 2016

Canadian Housing Bubble, Debt Stir Financial Crisis Fears

Their bone-chilling chart.

Everyone is fretting about the Canadian house price bubble and the mountain of debt it generates – from the IMF on down to the regular Canadian. Now even the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warn about the risks.

Every city has its own housing market, and some aren’t so hot. But in Vancouver and Toronto, all heck has broken loose in recent years.

In Vancouver, for example, even as sales volume plunged 45% in August from a year ago – under the impact of the new 15% transfer tax aimed at Chinese non-resident investors – the “benchmark” price of a detached house soared by 35.8%, of an apartment by 26.9%, and of an attached house by 31.1%. Ludicrous price increases!

In Toronto, a similar scenario has been playing out, but not quite as wildly. In both cities, the median detached house now sells for well over C$1 million. Even the Bank of Canada has warned about them, though it has lowered rates last year to inflate the housing market further – instead of raising rate sharply, which would wring some speculative heat out of the system. But no one wants to deflate a housing bubble.

During the Financial Crisis, when real estate prices in the US collapsed and returned, if only briefly, to something reflecting the old normal, Canadian home prices barely dipped before re-soaring. And this has been going on for years and years and years.

The OECD in its Interim Economic Outlook warned:

Over recent years, real house prices have been growing at a similar or higher pace than prior to the crisis in a number of countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The rise in real estate prices has pushed up price-to-rent ratios to record highs in several advanced economies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

House affordability improving in some parts of Canada, National Bank says

April 20, 2016

House affordability improving in some parts of Canada, National Bank says

Mortgage rates probably won't be dramatically changed by the Bank of Canada's benchmark overnight rate, economists say.

Mortgage rates probably won’t be dramatically changed by the Bank of Canada’s benchmark overnight rate, economists say. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

Six of 10 markets surveyed showed improvement in affordability, the bank said, with the biggest improvements seen in Calgary, Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau.

Pockets of affordability emerge

The bank’s gauge of affordability is the percentage of income required for a monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home, assuming a 25-year amortization and a five-year term.

In Calgary, which has been hit hard by the dramatic drop in oil prices, the the mortgage payment stood at 28.2 per cent of income for the first quarter of this year. That was off by 0.7 percentage points from the last quarter of 2015, and down by 2.2 percentage points from the first three months of last year, the bank said.

‘Montreal homes have become the most affordable in a decade’– National Bank

In Montreal, the first quarter drop was 0.5 percentage points from the end of last year, the same decline seen in the Ottawa-Gatineau area.

“Montreal homes have become the most affordable in a decade,” National Bank economists Matthieu Arsenau and Kyle Dahms said in their report.

They also said Calgary’s percentage of income needed for a monthly payment is now at a record low.

Nationally, the portion of income increased by 0.1 percentage points to 31 per cent in the first three months of the year, the bank said. That followed a increase of 0.8 percentage points in the last three months of 2015.

Meanwhile, Vancouver and Toronto continue to see soaring prices, and eroding afforability, the bank said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%

April 13, 2016

Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%

Central bank’s rate has impact on rates offered by commercial banks for loans and savings accounts

The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

The Bank of Canada’s rate, known as its target for the overnight rate, affects what Canadian borrowers and savers are offered from commercial banks on their loans and investments.

BANK OF CANADA KEY OVERNIGHT RATE Broadly speaking, the bank cuts rates when it wants to stimulate the economy, and hikes rates when it wants to pump the brakes on inflation.

After standing on the sidelines for years, the bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate twice last year in an attempt to stimulate a Canadian economy waylaid by low oil prices.

Since then, the economy has showed signed of improvement, however, as the cheap loonie has helped manufacturers and exporters, and oil prices have stabilized around the $40 level in recent months.

In January, Canada’s gross domestic product grew by its biggest amount in more than two years, official data showed last month. That helps explain the new cautiously optimistic outlook from the central bank’s decision-makers.

BANK OF CANADA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK “It does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative,” the bank said in its statement Wednesday. “First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong.”

The Canadian dollar reacted positively to the news, erasing earlier losses of about a third of a cent to trade hands virtually unchanged on the day, at 78.35 cents US.

While keeping rates steady for now, the bank hiked its forecast of how it expects the economy to perform this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Remember the people involved

March 23, 2016

Remember the people involved

When I was in University, I vividly remember one of my economics professors telling students to always remember the people involved when analyzing a policy change. I was reminded of this sage advice upon reading Matthew McCaffery’s Mises Daily article titled, “Who will pay for it?” is the wrong question to ask politicians. McCaffery’s point is the question often focuses too much on the question of who and how to pay which distracts from more important issues such as what is being paid for? I would add to that, who is being paid? By emphasizing the basic problem of finding the money, what is sometimes overlooked is the problem of whether new government programs will actually work of whether they will be wasteful and counterproductive, and who the tax consumers are.

Asking questions such as “who will pay for it?” and “what, specifically, is being paid for?” are particularly pertinent given the federal budget is to be unveiled today. Early reportssuggest cumulative budget deficits over the next two years will be well above $50 billion (about 1.3% of GDP). The question, “who will pay for it?” is answered quickly as the federal government has only three sources of revenue: current taxpayers, future taxpayers and increasing the money supply (inflation) by selling bonds to the Bank of Canada.

The consequences of higher taxes and more inflation doesn’t seem to faze many people, including some well-known economists in Canada. Doug Bandow observed that left-wing activists tend to favor corporate taxation. They imagine a society divided between businesses and people. However, firms are owned by people, employ people, sell to people, and contract with people. Taxing companies means taxing people.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Meridian credit union offers 1-year mortgage at 1.69%

February 2, 2016

Meridian credit union offers 1-year mortgage at 1.69%

Spring mortgage wars start early, as member-owned lender makes new low offer to homebuyers

Meridian credit union just offered a one-year mortgage at 1.69 per cent.

Meridian credit union just offered a one-year mortgage at 1.69 per cent. (Daniel Munoz/Reuters)

“As we are quickly approaching the busy spring home buying season, this is the perfect time for people to evaluate their home buying options by getting a pre-approval now,” the credit union said in a release Tuesday announcing the offer.

The deal is the lowest mortgage rate currently on offer from any lenders, for any term, listed on RateSupermarket.ca. It also comes with a so-called 20/20 prepayment ability, which means the borrower is able to pay off 20 per cent of the principal in any given year. The borrower can also increase the monthly payment up to 20 per cent of the original payment plan each year.

Competitive market

The move is a first strike in the battle for market share in the upcoming spring buying season. The big banks have raised their mortgage rates incrementally over the past 12 months in some cases, even as the Bank of Canada has twice slashed its benchmark rate, and yields in the bond market — where the banks borrow from to get money to loan out to mortgage buyers — are also getting cheaper.

In recent years, mortgage lenders have been keen to cut their rates in the lead-up to the busy spring buying season in order to gain market share.

March 2014: BMO slashes 5-year mortgage rate to under 3%
March 2015: BMO, TD cut mortgage rate to record low 2.79%

Meridian’s announcement came with a potshot against the big banks, who haven’t passed on the full extent of the last two central bank rate cuts to consumers by lowering their consumer rates by the same amount.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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