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A Glimpse Of Things To Come: Bankrupt Shale Producers “Can’t Give Their Assets Away”
A Glimpse Of Things To Come: Bankrupt Shale Producers “Can’t Give Their Assets Away”
We’ve also been keen to point out that the long list of cash flow negative US producers has only managed to stay in business this long because Wall Street has thus far been willing to plug the sector’s funding gap with cheap financing thanks to ZIRP and investors’ insatiable demand for anything that looks like it might offer some semblance of yield.
It is not a matter of “if” but rather a matter of “when” the entire complex goes under and when that happens, the relatively paltry sums banks have set aside against losses in their energy books will balloon as everyone on Wall Street simultaneously pulls a BOK Financial.
Indeed, we’re already hearing the not-so-distant rumblings of this oncoming default freight train as JP Morgan raises its net loan loss reserves for the first time in 22 quarters, Wells Fargo discloses $17 billion in “mostly” junk energy exposure, and Citi dodges questions about the reserves it’s holding against a $58 billion energy book that the bank may or may not be marking to market depending on what the Dallas Fed “didn’t” tell banksearlier this month.
M2M or no, higher provisions or not, the end of America’s oil “miracle” is coming and there’s nothing Wall Street can do to stop it. At this point in the game, no one is going to finance these companies’ cash flow deficits and the fundamentals in the oil market are laughably bad. Storage is overflowing, demand is withering, and supply is, well, “drowning” us all, to quote the IEA.
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Ukraine’s Looming “19 Fukushimas” Scenario
Ukraine’s Looming “19 Fukushimas” Scenario
With all the action in Syria, the Ukraine is no longer a subject for discussion in the West. In Russia, where the Ukraine is still a major problem looming on the horizon, and where some 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees are settling in, with no intentions of going back to what’s left of the Ukraine, it is still actively discussed. But for the US, and for the EU, it is now yet another major foreign policy embarrassment, and the less said about it the better.
In the meantime, the Ukraine is in full-blown collapse – all five glorious stages of it – setting the stage for a Ukrainian Nightmare Before Christmas, or shortly after.
Phase 1. Financially, the Ukrainian government is in sovereign default as of a couple of days ago. The IMF was forced to break its own rules in order to keep it on life support even though it is clearly a deadbeat. In the process, the IMF stiffed Russia, which happens to be one of its major shareholders; what gives?Phase 2. Industry and commerce are approaching a standstill and the country is rapidly deindustrializing. Formerly, most of the trade was with Russia; this is now over. The Ukraine does not make anything that the EU might want, except maybe prostitutes. Recently, the Ukraine has been selling off its dirt. This is illegal, but, given what’s been happening there, the term “illegal” has become the stuff of comedy.
Phase 3. Politically, the Ukrainian government is a total farce. Much of it has been turned over to fly-by-night foreigners, such as the former Georgian president Saakashvili, who is a wanted criminal in his own country, which has recently stripped him of his citizenship. The parliament is stocked with criminals who bought their seat to gain immunity from prosecution, and who spend their time brawling with each other.
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House Democrat Warns Obama’s Actions Could Lead To “Devastating Nuclear War”
House Democrat Warns Obama’s Actions Could Lead To “Devastating Nuclear War”
Did we say countless, we actually counted some of them – there are at least 16 specific instances in just the past two years in which Obama promised to not do what he just did:
Remarks before meeting with Baltic State leaders, Aug. 30, 2013
“In no event are we considering any kind of military action that would involve boots on the ground, that would involve a long-term campaign. But we are looking at the possibility of a limited, narrow act that would help make sure that not only Syria, but others around the world, understand that the international community cares about maintaining this chemical weapons ban and norm. So again, I repeat, we’re not considering any open-ended commitment. We’re not considering any boots-on-the-ground approach.”
Remarks in the Rose Garden, Aug. 31, 2013
“After careful deliberation, I have decided that the United States should take military action against Syrian regime targets. This would not be an open-ended intervention. We would not put boots on the ground. Instead, our action would be designed to be limited in duration and scope.”
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Schadenfreude – How the US Is Helping China Create a New Financial Order
Schadenfreude – How the US Is Helping China Create a New Financial Order
Here we have an image of a Chinese banknote, featuring Chairman Mao, followed by a seemingly incongruous German word – schadenfreude. Is there an error here?
Happily, no. We’ll begin with the word, schadenfreude, which means “harm-joy.” It’s used to express an occurrence that’s destructive, yet brings about happiness.
This would seem to be a conflict in terms, but, looked at a bit more deeply, it could be said that the killing of an enemy may mean that peace will soon prevail – and so the event brings happiness. Or, another analogy: the bulldozing of an old structure may mean that a new one – a better one – will soon be under construction.
And that’s the case here. The world’s most powerful (and most oppressive) political/economic power structure has begun to go under the bulldozer. Its replacement will hopefully be a better one.
The Brussels SWIFT system is currently the largest economic settlement system in the world. Almost all financial transfers are made possible through this system. As such, those who control SWIFT have the power to threaten financial institutions and sovereign nations that, if they don’t do as they’re told, can be denied access to the system.
The controllers of SWIFT have been far from fair in making these judgements. Much of their agenda has been provided by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a cabal made up of many of the world’s most powerful nations, but primarily Europe and the US. The US is the heavy here and they’ve used their power to create FATCA, a means of applying draconian economic pressures on their own citizens. In doing so, they’ve also succeeded in creating a global shakedown racket aimed at financial institutions. If a bank anywhere in the world is found to have a US citizen as a client and the bank fails to regulate that client sufficiently, the bank itself is “held up” – the US imposes a massive fine on the bank.
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Not the “Death of the Dollar” but “Death of the Euro?”
Not the “Death of the Dollar” but “Death of the Euro?”
The rise of the Chinese yuan as an international currency is not only unstoppable but is advancing in leaps and bounds, according to SWIFT. It comes at the expense of other currencies, though it’s not triggering the long-awaited “death of the dollar.” On the contrary. Yet the euro has stumbled into the line of fire.
SWIFT is in a position to know. The member-owned organization, based in Belgium, provides among other things a network that enables financial institutions around the globe to send and receive information about financial transactions in a standardized environment. It also cooperates with various intelligence and law enforcement agencies around the world, including the US Treasury, the CIA, and others. The NSA is likely to get what it wants without asking.
In its latest RMB Tracker, SWIFT is relentlessly effusive about the rise of the yuan. In August, global payments in renminbi rose once again, achieving another milestone: it edged out the yen to become the fourth largest payments currency with a share of, well, 2.8% of global payments – “reflecting RMB’s huge potential and staggering momentum as a major currency,” the report gushes.
That’s not exactly a lot, compared to China’s economic power in the global markets. When China sneezes, as it just did, the world catches pneumonia. But it’s a big leap forward: In August 2012, the yuan was in 12th position, with a minuscule share of 0.8%.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the yuan is already the most actively used currency for intra-regional payments with China and Hong Kong, having edged out the yen this year.
Becoming a major global currency is one of the preconditions for becoming a reserve currency held by central banks as part of their foreign exchange reserves baskets. But the yuan isn’t in those baskets yet.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It’s Not If But When
It’s Not If But When
Since the 2008 crash there has been much talk about how the fundamentals have not been dealt with and the fact that the can has only been kicked down the road. Political mavericks and commentators such as Ron Paul have frequently pointed out that nothing has really changed and that we are heading for even bigger disasters ahead if we continue to play ostrich.
Likewise, the economic doom and gloom pundits – such as Peter Schiff, Marc Faber and Gerald Celente have been banging the drum for an unprecedented collapse that will make the 1929 western economic slump look like a tea party. First it was to be 2010, 2012, then 2013 and so on, but here we are still, in the tail end of 2015 and the dreaded collapse has still failed to materialise.
So, I’m sure that some people are probably wondering if these people are just carpet baggers, making a swift buck out of fear of an economic downturn. The truth is that we never left the economic downturn – we are currently in a period of manipulation that’s sole purpose is to mask the fact that there has not been a boom (or recovery if you like) to trigger the next bust.
The world economy is largely sustained by confidence and belief that pieces of paper (or digital records) have some inherent value relative to each other and relative to the physical realities of the world. In truth a paper note is worthless if people do not recognise its symbolic value or believe that the relationship between its value and the value of real-world objects (e.g. commodities) has been perverted or destroyed.
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Powder Kegs Exploding: Violence Escalates In Turkey, Yemen As Mid-East Tips Towards Chaos
Powder Kegs Exploding: Violence Escalates In Turkey, Yemen As Mid-East Tips Towards Chaos
On Friday we checked in on two of the world’s most important conflicts: 1) that which is unfolding in Turkey where President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an has effectively granted Washington access to Incirlik (you know, for “anti-terror” sorties) in exchange for NATO’s acquiescence to a brutal crackdown on the Kurds as AKP looks to usurp Turkey’s fragile deomcracy, and 2) that which is unfolding in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition isfighting to restore the government of Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.
In Turkey, Erdogan has successfully undermined the coalition building process necessitating new elections in November when he hopes the escalation of violence across the country will prompt voters to restore AKP’s parliamentary majority allowing the President to rewrite the constitution and consolidate his power. Journalists are being arrested, a terror “tip line” has been set up, a 24-hour Erodgan Presidential TV channel is in the works, and the country has, for all intents and purposes, been plunged into civil war with ISIS acting as a smokescreen for Erdogan’s power grab.
As for Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis have been driven back by Saudi and UAE troops but the problem, asWSJ noted last week, is that the ragtag militia in Aden is “a motley group that spans the spectrum from southern secessionists to ultraconservative Salafi Islamists to supporters of al Qaeda.” In other words, it doesn’t seem all that far-fetched to suggest that should restoring Hadi ultimately prove to be impossible, an independent South Yemen could end up falling into the hands of extremists, which would be ironic not only for the fact that it would represent the latest example of US foreign policy gone horribly awry, but also because according to at least one source, the Saleh government – whose fighters are now allied with the Houthis – for years worked with AQP while accepting US anti-terror funding. Notably, were Yemen to split in two, it would also effectively create a permanent Iranian colony on Saudi Arabia’s southern border.
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Russia Readies Fuel Deliveries To Athens, Will Support Greek “Economic Revival”
Russia Readies Fuel Deliveries To Athens, Will Support Greek “Economic Revival”
Russia and Greece have a “special relationship of spiritual kinship and religious and historical affinity,” Vladimir Putin said yesterday, following the BRICS summit in Ulfa.
Over the course of the unfolding crisis in Greece, Athens has at various times gone out of its way to remind Angela Merkel that allowing the country to crash out of the currency bloc may force the Greeks to turn to their other international “friends” (to use Nigel Farage’s words) for assistance. Facing economic sanctions from the EU in connection with its alleged role in destabilizing Ukraine not to mention a spiteful anti-trust suit against Gazprom, the Kremlin has been more than happy to use the rising tensions between Athens and Brussels to its geopolitical advantage.
So far, discussions between Russia and Greece have revolved primarily around energy, and several months back, when negotiations between Athens and creditors began to deteriorate in earnest, reports began to surface that Moscow may consider advancing Greece some €5 billion against the future proceeds from the Greek portion of the proposed Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline.
Although the loan never materialized, the agreement on the pipeline did, and it was held up last week as proof that Greece is “no one’s hostage.”
Now, that contention will be put to the test as Greece faces the prospect of a “swift time-out” from the eurozone if PM Alexis Tsipras can’t convince parliament to agree to a new term sheet from creditors which seeks the implementation of a number of draconian measures in exchange for a third bailout. Of course, as we notedearlier today, a “time-out” is a polite way of saying “get the hell out,” and in the event of a messy exit and forced redenomination, an acute cash and credit crunch will likely mean a shortage of critical imports and, in short order, a humanitarian crisis.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Greek “Choice”: Hand Over Sovereignty Or Take Five Year Euro “Time Out”
The Greek “Choice”: Hand Over Sovereignty Or Take Five Year Euro “Time Out”
For those who missed today’s festivities in Brussels, here is the 30,000 foot summary: Europe has given Greece a “choice”: hand over sovereignty to Germany Europe or undergo a 5 year Grexit “time out”, which is a polite euphemism for get the hell out.
As noted earlier, here are the 12 conditions laid out as a result of the latest Eurogroup meeting, which are far more draconian than anything presented to Greece yet and which effectively require that Greece cede sovereignty to Europe, this time even without the implementation of a technocratic government.
- Streamlining VAT
- Broadening the tax base
- Sustainability of pension system
- Adopt a code of civil procedure
- Safeguarding of legal independence for Greece ELSTAT – the statistics office
- Full implementation of autmatic spending cuts
- Meet bank recovery and resolution directive
- Privatize electricity transmission grid
- Take decisive action on non-performing loans
- Ensure independence of privatization body TAIPED
- De-Politicize the Greek administration
- Return of the Troika to Athens (the paper calls them the institutions… for now)
One alternative, generously presented to Greece, is for the country to put some €50 billion of assets – the best ones – in escrow to creditors. A more polite was of putting would be a Greek secured loan. This is how the Luxembourg FinMin Pierre Gramegna laid it out:
“A few new ideas were added to the table, especially one which is very important for some member states, which is that Greece would put a portion of its assets into a company that would be more independent from Greece.”
“More independent” from Greece and “more dependent” to Berlin.
Greece would place about €50 billion of state assets into an independent company. Those assets could serve as collateral against aid loans, Gramegna says. “It would act as a kind of guarantee. There is great hesitation from the Greek side and now the heads of state and government have to choose.”
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The PetroYuan Is Born: Gazprom Now Settling All Crude Sales To China In Renminbi
The PetroYuan Is Born: Gazprom Now Settling All Crude Sales To China In Renminbi
Two topics we’ve deemed critically important to a thorough understanding of both global finance and the shifting geopolitical landscape are the death of the petrodollar and the idea of yuan hegemony.
Last November, in “How The Petrodollar Quietly Died And No One Noticed,” we said the following about the slow motion demise of the system that has served to perpetuate decades of dollar dominance:
Two years ago, in hushed tones at first, then ever louder, the financial world began discussing that which shall never be discussed in polite company – the end of the system that according to many has framed and facilitated the US Dollar’s reserve currency status: the Petrodollar, or the world in which oil export countries would recycle the dollars they received in exchange for their oil exports, by purchasing more USD-denominated assets, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous (especially if one held US-denominated assets and printed US currency) loop.
The main thrust for this shift away from the USD, if primarily in the non-mainstream media, was that with Russia and China, as well as the rest of the BRIC nations, increasingly seeking to distance themselves from the US-led, “developed world” status quo spearheaded by the IMF, global trade would increasingly take place through bilateral arrangements which bypass the (Petro)dollar entirely. And sure enough, this has certainly been taking place, as first Russia and China, together with Iran, and ever more developing nations, have transacted among each other, bypassing the USD entirely, instead engaging in bilateral trade arrangements.
Falling crude prices served to accelerate the petrodollar’s demise and in 2014, OPEC nationsdrained liquidity from financial markets for the first time in nearly two decades:
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How Putin can win global economic war against Russia
How Putin can win global economic war against Russia
What are the objectives of the global economic war against Russia? Will the West disconnect Russia from SWIFT? Will Europe and the USA impose more sanctions on Russia? What’s happening to the oil prices? Will Syrian President Bashar Assad surrender? Pravda.Ru asked these and other questions in an interview with Ron Holland, author of many best-selling books
It has been a year since the US economic war against Russia began by the West. Which objectives have been set and have they been achieved?
I would suggest the objectives have been three fold but in fact I would date the sanctions war from Friday August 30, 2013. This was when President Putin offered a peaceful alternative at the last moment to stop the US military operation against Bashar al-Assad and Syria that was within hours of starting. Surprisingly the US called off the attack and this set in motion a series of events contrary to the goals of the US administration. I believe both Russia and China covertly played the Treasury debt card in order to protect their client states, Syria and Iran, from the impending US invasion.
I wrote in my September editorial at that time; Did Putin Quietly Play the Debt Card Over Syria that both Russia and China might have covertly played the Treasury debt card in order to protect their allies, Syria and Iran, from an impending US invasion.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
US plan to drop Russia from global banking system hilariously backfires
US plan to drop Russia from global banking system hilariously backfires
If Vladimir Putin is remotely capable of laughter (the jury is out on that one…) then he’s probably doing so right now.
Russia is once again Arch-Enemy of the United States. It’s like living through a really bad James Bond movie, complete with cartoonish villains.
And for the last several months, the US government has been doing everything it can to torpedo the Russian economy, as well as Vladimir Putin’s standing within his own country.
The economic nuclear option is to kick Russia out of the international banking system. And the US government has been vociferously pushing for this.
Specifically, the US government wants to kick Russia out of SWIFT, short for the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications.
That’s a mouthful. But SWIFT is an important component in the global banking system because it lays the foundation for banks to communicate and transfer funds with one another.
It’s a network protocol of sorts. Whenever a bank in Pakistan does business with a bank in Portugal, the funds will clear through the SWIFT network.
According to the SWIFT itself, they link over 9,000 financial institutions worldwide in over 200 countries, which transact 15 million times per day.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Completes SWIFT Alternative, May Launch “De-Dollarization Axis” As Soon As September
China Completes SWIFT Alternative, May Launch “De-Dollarization Axis” As Soon As September
One of the recurring threats used by the western nations in their cold (and increasingly more hot) war with Russia, is that Putin’s regime may be locked out of all international monetary transactions when Moscow is disconnected from the EU-based global currency messaging and interchange service known as SWIFT (a move, incidentally, which SWIFT lamented as was revealed in October when we reported that it announces it “regrets the pressure” to disconnect Russia).
Of course, in the aftermath of revelations that back in 2013, none other than the NSA was exposed for secretly ‘monitoring’ the SWIFT payments flows, one could wonder if being kicked out of SWIFT is a curse or a blessing, however Russia did not need any further warnings and as we reported less than a month ago, Russia launched its own ‘SWIFT’-alternative, linking 91 credit institutions initially. This in turn suggested that de-dollarization is considerably further along than many had expected, which coupled with Russia’s record dumping of TSYs, demonstrated just how seriously Putin is taking the threat to be isolated from the western payment system. It was only logical that he would come up with his own.
There were two clear implications from this use of money as a means of waging covert war: i) unless someone else followed Russia out of SWIFT, its action, while notable and valiant, would be pointless – after all, if everyone else is still using SWIFT by default, then anything Russia implements for processing foreign payments is irrelevant and ii) if indeed the Russian example of exiting a western-mediated payment system was successful and copied, it would accelerate the demise of the Dollar’s status as reserve currency, which is thus by default since there are no alternatives. Provide alternatives, and the entire reserve system begins to crack.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
ECB Warns UK: Excluding Russia From SWIFT “Could Undermine Confidence In The Whole System”
ECB Warns UK: Excluding Russia From SWIFT “Could Undermine Confidence In The Whole System”
As “isolated” Russia signs a military deal with Cyprus, agrees bilateral trade with Greece, ratifies the $100 billion BRICS Bank, and offers to trade advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Iran, it seems threats of more sanctions against Putin and his nation are finding resistance from an unexpected place. With British PM David Cameron re-demanding that Russia be excluded from the SWIFT global financial payments system, none other than ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny has exclaimed, “one has to be very careful here, exclusion of Russia from Swift would be very problematic because it could potentially undermine confidence in this system as a whole.”
As Der Standard reports (via Google Translate),
A SWIFT exclusion of Russia as a sanction against the EU-Ukraine Moscow because of the crisis had last been suggested by British Prime Minister David Cameron. Nowotny said he had spoken with EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici… the question of the Russia-EU sanctions.“I pointed out that one has to be very careful here,” the governor said. Exclusion of Russia from Swift “we would see as very problematic because it could potentially undermine confidence in this system as a whole”.
Austria would advocate a pragmatic way. His warning was not so much related to Austria, but on the credibility of the SWIFT system. This international payment system should be a neutral service, Nowotny said.
For Austria exclusion of Russia from Swift would have no immediate effect. However, Russia could then put retaliation, “and, of course, would have implications for all companies doing business in Russia there”. But he assumed that it would not come to such a step. He would not comment on the sanctions, “only if sanctioned, this is not the appropriate field.”
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