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Deflation Is Blowing In On An Eastern Trade Wind

July 3, 2016

Deflation Is Blowing In On An Eastern Trade Wind


Jack Delano “Lower Manhattan seen from the S.S. Coamo leaving New York.” 1941

Brexit is nowhere near the biggest challenge to western economies. And not just because it has devolved into a two-bit theater piece. Though we should not forget the value of that development: it lays bare the real Albion and the power hunger of its supposed leaders. From xenophobia and racism on the streets, to back-stabbing in dimly lit smoky backrooms, there’s not a states(wo)man in sight, and none will be forthcoming. Only sell-outs need apply.

The only person with an ounce of integrity left is Jeremy Corbyn, but his Labour party is dead, which is why he must fight off an entire horde of zombies. Unless Corbyn leaves labour and starts Podemos UK, he’s gone too. The current infighting on both the left and right means there is a unique window for something new, but Brits love what they think are their traditions, plus Corbyn has been Labour all his life, and he just won’t see it.

The main threat inside the EU isn’t Brexit either. It’s Italy. Whose banks sit on over 30% of all eurozone non-performing loans, while its GDP is about 10% of EU GDP. How they would defend it I don’t know, they’re probably counting on not having to, but Juncker and Tusk’s European Commission has apparently approved a scheme worth €150 billion that will allow these banks to issue quasi-sovereign bonds when they come under attack. An attack that is now even more guaranteed to occcur than before.

Still, none of Europe’s internal affairs have anything on what’s coming in from the east. Reading between the lines of Japan’s Tankan survey numbers there is only one possible conclusion: the ongoing and ever more costly utter failure of Abenomics continues unabated.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We Need the Pain that Comes with More Saving

March 16, 2016

We Need the Pain that Comes with More Saving We Need the Pain that Comes with More Saving

The endgame of monetary side manipulations is upon us. Since 2008, central banks have done what they thought was needed to bring the markets back from the pain they experienced during the crash. The problem, of course, is that these Keynesians and Monetarists placed the high level of stock markets as the goal of “policy” and confused booming asset levels with economic growth.

The enemy of prosperity, in the eyes of global economic policymakers, is the desire of the consumer to save and  businesses to refrain — even in the short term — from investment. As such, their “solution” was the very poison that has infected the Western world over the decades: more credit, lower costs of money, more push for “consumer demand.”

The Current Orthodoxy Is Failing

But “easy” monetary policy has merely led to debt-ridden economies and a bubble that is increasingly being exposed as a complete farce. January saw a market pullback tease that reminded investors that what was pushed up artificially can’t be sustained forever. Monetary policy, even if it goes to negative interest rate territory with a vengeance, isn’t going to be the miracle drug needed to provide a better economic foundation. Austrians have long known this. The mainstream is just starting to publicly admit it.

The Savings-Glut Myth

However, the right lessons are not being learned by either the economic policymakers or the financial pundits. In fact, the most dangerous economic fallacies still underlie their entire financial worldview. For instance, there is the ever-constant theme that there is a “glut of savings” and that low consumer demand is the chief villain that stands opposed to economic stabilization. Martin Wolf, writes in The Financial Times:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Bank Discovers Kuroda’s NIRP Paradox

March 7, 2016

Deutsche Bank Discovers Kuroda’s NIRP Paradox

Last October, BofA looked at Europe’s €2.6 trillion in negative-yielding debt and discovered something “stunning”: Savings rates were going up not down.

Don’t believe us, just have a look at these three charts:

But how could that be? By all accounts – or, should we say, by all conventional Keynesian/ textbook accounts – negative rates should force people out of savings and into higher yielding vehicles or else into goods and services which “rational” actors will assume they should buy now before they get more expensive in the future as inflation rises or at least before the money they’re sitting on now yields less than it currently is.

Well inflation never rose for a variety of reasons (not the least of which was that QE and ZIRP actually contributed to the global disinflationary impulse) and nothing will incentivize savers to keep their money in the bank like the expectation of deflation.

Well, almost nothing. There’s also this (again, from BofA): “Ultra-low rates may perversely be driving a greater propensity for consumers to save as retirement income becomes more uncertain.”

Why that’s “perverse,” we’re not entirely sure. Fixed income yields nothing, and rates on savings accounts are nothing. Which means if you’re worried about your nest egg and aren’t keen on chasing the stock bubble higher or buying bonds in hopes that capital appreciation will make up for rock-bottom coupons (i.e. chasing the bond bubble), then as Gene Wilder would say, “you get nothing.” And that makes you nervous if you’re thinking about retirement. And nervous people don’t spend. Nervous people save.

Deutsche Bank has figured out this very same dynamic. In a note out Friday, the bank remarks that declining rates have generally managed to bring consumption forward.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why NIRP (Negative Interest Rates) Will Fail Miserably

February 12, 2016

Why NIRP (Negative Interest Rates) Will Fail Miserably

What NIRP communicates is: this sucker’s going down, so sell everything and hoard your cash and precious metals.


The last hurrah of central banks is the negative interest rate policy–NIRP. The basic idea of NIRP is to punish savers so severely that households and businesses will be compelled to go blow whatever money they have on something–what the money is squandered on is of no importance to central banks.

All that matters is that people and enterprises are forced to spend whatever cash they have rather than “hoard” it, i.e. preserve and conserve their capital.

That this is certifiably insane is self-evident. If an economy depends on bringing future spending into the present by destroying savings, that economy is doomed regardless of NIRP, for eventually the cash runs out and spending declines anyway.

But NIRP will fail completely and totally due to another dynamic— one I addressed last month in Another Reason Why the Middle Class and the Velocity of Money Are in Terminal Decline. As correspondent Mike Fasano noted, negative interest rates force us to save even more, not less:

“People like me who have saved all their lives realize that they their savings (no matter how much) will never throw off enough money to allow retirement, unless I live off principal. This is especially so since one can reasonably expect social security to phased out, indexed out or dropped altogether. Accordingly, I realize that when I get to the point when I can no longer work, I’ll be living off capital and not interest. This is an incentive to keep working and not to spend.”

If banks start charging savers interest on their cash, savers will have to save even more income to offset the additional costs imposed by central banks on their savings.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Increasingly Fragile Upper-Middle Class

February 8, 2016

The Increasingly Fragile Upper-Middle Class

Many of these apparently high incomes are completely absorbed by high-cost upper middle class expenses.

Since the top 10% takes home 50% of all household income, it follows that this top slice has most of the discretionary cash, i.e. net income left after taxes, servicing debt and paying for essentials such as food, utilities and housing.

It also follows that the discretionary spending of the top 10% is supporting much of the economy that is dependent on discretionary spending: tourism, eating out, personal trainers, etc.

The top 10% includes the thin slice of Financial Oligarchy (top .01%) and the top 1%. This skews the income and wealth of the top 10%. But if we set aside the top 1%, the next 10% still earns the lion’s share of household income.

The top .1% can prop up Maserati sales and buy $5 million vacation homes, but there simply aren’t enough super-wealthy to support the U.S. economy. As for the top 1%, they can prop up the local Porsche dealership and pay dock fees at the yacht club, but there aren’t enough of them to support the entire economy, either: around 1.5 million qualify as top 1%.

So that leaves the upper-middle class, the roughly 12 million households that earn a disproportionate share of household income, with the task of spending enough discretionary cash to prop up an economy that depends heavily on consumer spending.

Many of these upper-middle class households are far more financially fragile than their substantial incomes suggest. The vast majority of these high-income households depend on two earners, each making substantial salaries, bonuses and benefits such as 401K retirement contributions.

Many of these apparently high incomes are completely absorbed by high-cost upper middle class expenses. $250,000 a year may look like a lot until you throw in a couple of kids attending private prep schools or college, healthcare costs that aren’t covered by insurance, an enormous mortgage and sky-high property taxes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Three Reasons to Be Worried About the Economy

February 8, 2016

Three Reasons to Be Worried About the Economy 

Three Reasons to Be Worried About the Economy

On January 12, America’s central planner-in-chief gave his State of the Union address. The president promised nothing less than to feed the hungry, create jobs, shape the earth’s climate, and make everyone a college graduate. There’s nothing new here, though. We’ve heard variations of this silly song and dance every year under both Democrats and Republicans. The president lambasted naysayers as fear-mongers that were too partisan to admit we have a booming economy. The fact that the Dow Jones cratered roughly 9 percent in the same thirty-day period President Obama gave his address did nothing to quell Obama’s optimism about America’s future. In fact, he labeled the US economy “the strongest and most durable in the world.”

Despite our leader’s unwavering confidence in America’s fortunes, a quick peak under the hood reveals a pretty grim state of American commerce.

1. The Federal Reserve and US Government Have Warped the American Economy

In just the past decade, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown from roughly $800 billion to over $4 trillion. Our central bankers engaging in massive asset purchases to pummel interest rates downward is not news to anyone. We’ve been living in a world of falling interest rates since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Yet, few mainstream economists have taken a good look at the destructive effects of this unprecedented monetary expansion. The calamitous distortions Fed policy has created for actors on both Main Street and Wall Street since 2008 have laid the groundwork for yet another crash.

Low interest rates stemming from a growing money supply are the only reason the US government has managed to service its gargantuan debt in recent years. The Congressional Budget Office itself has pointed out that even a slight rise in interest rates could potentially result in anywhere from $700 to $900 billion in annual tax payments just to service the interest on our debt.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed’s 2% Inflation Fairytale—–Who Made It Up And What Does It Mean?

November 5, 2015

The Fed’s 2% Inflation Fairytale—–Who Made It Up And What Does It Mean?

Once upon a time, not too long ago, central bank wizards began telling a fairytale that economies need inflation. But not just any inflation. In their Goldilocks make-believe world, the not too hot, not too cold, just right dose of two percent is needed to keep an economy healthy.

While there is absolutely no quantifiable data or economic model that proves or supports this oft-cited fairytale, the business media keep repeating it, selling the fiction that a two-percent inflation rate will somehow create jobs and spur economic growth.

“Worry Over Low Inflation Kept Fed at Bay,” screeched the Wall Street Journal, 9 October headline, following the release of Federal Reserve minutes in which they decided not to raise interest rates.

Who made this up? How is inflation – paying more for goods and services – the perfect financial tonic for working people to swallow?

In the United States, for example, with wages trending between decline and stagnation, more inflation means paying more to get less. With median household income below 1999 levels, how can higher inflation stimulate more spending? How can higher inflation be beneficial when, according to new Social Security data, 63 percent of Americans make less than $40,000 per year?

As dismal as those numbers are, in countries around the world where unemployment is much higher and real income and wages have fallen more dramatically, central bank charlatans persist with their “we need inflation” refrain.

A headline in the Financial Times read: “Eurozone’s small rise in prices misses ECB inflation target.” And the article reported: “Prices ticked up across the eurozone this month, although they remain well short of the European Central Bank’s 2 percent inflation target needed to bolster the region’s economic recovery(FT, 31 October 2015).”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

SPR To Be Used To Raise Cash For US Gov

October 29, 2015

SPR To Be Used To Raise Cash For US Gov

The U.S. Congress is moving on a budget deal to avert a standoff over raising the debt ceiling, at least until 2017. The emerging budget deal calls for some modest increases in government spending, including on defense, along with some tweaks to Social Security and Medicare.

But the budget deal contains a novel way to raise the funds needed to pay for the increase in spending: selling off oil from America’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).

The proposal calls for the sale of 58 million barrels of oil from the SPR, spread out over six years between 2018 and 2024. The Congressional Budget Office predicts the move will raise over $5 billion.

Related: Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Prices

The SPR was created in the aftermath of the Arab Oil Embargo in the 1970s, which led to price spikes, fuel rationing and long lines at gasoline stations. The SPR was to be used as a tool to ensure against supply disruptions. Tucked away in salt caverns along the Gulf Coast in Louisiana and Texas, the SPR holds an estimated 695 million barrels of crude.

Congress has traditionally been very reluctant to touch the SPR, and there has been a general consensus in Washington DC that it should only be used in very special circumstances. For example, the SPR was tapped following the Persian Gulf War in 1990-1991 and following damage inflicted upon Gulf of Mexico energy infrastructure from Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Any effort on behalf of the government to sell outside of these unique situations tended to spark criticism. For instance, President Barack Obama was highly criticized for selling oil in 2011 during the Arab Spring when Libyan oil supplies were knocked offline, with detractors citing no urgent supply need.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

An Important Economic Indicator – Money Velocity – Crashes Far Worse than During the Great Depression

June 6, 2015

An Important Economic Indicator – Money Velocity – Crashes Far Worse than During the Great Depression

Underneath the Propaganda, the Economy Is In BAD Shape …

We noted 3 years ago that the velocity of money – an important economic indicator – is lower than during the Great Depression.

Things have gotten even worse since since then …

By way of background, the velocity of money is the rate at which people spend money.

In other words, it’s the speed at which a dollar moves from one person to the next through the economy.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explains:

The velocity of money can be calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply … which can be used to gauge the economy’s strength or people’s willingness to spend money. When there are more transactions being made throughout the economy, velocity increases, and the economy is likely to expand. The opposite is also true: Money velocity decreases when fewer transactions are being made; therefore the economy is likely to shrink.

The St. Louis Fed labels the velocity of money as “Gross Domestic Product/St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base” …  and provides the following data on the velocity of money between the start of the Great Depression and today:

Money

Here’s the money velocity right before the Great Depression hit:

Money 1

Here’s the money velocity from the darkest point during the Great Depression:

Money 2

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

How To Spot A Bubble

June 3, 2015

How To Spot A Bubble

We’ve been entertaining ourselves to no end the past couple days with a ‘vast array’ of articles that purport to provide us with ‘expert’ opinion on the question of whether we are witnessing a bubble or not. Got the views of Goldman’s David Kostin, Robert Shiller, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Howard Marks.

But although these things can be quite amusing because while they’re at it, of course, the ‘experts’ say the darndest things (check Bloomberg ‘Intelligence’s Carl Riccadonna: “You had equity markets benefit from QE, but eventually QE also jump-started the broader recovery..Ultimately everyone’s benefiting.”), we can’t get rid of this one other nagging question: who needs an expert to tell them that today’s markets are riddled with bubbles, given that they are the size of obese gigantosauruses about to pump out quadruplets?

Moreover, when inviting the opinions of these ‘authorities’, you inevitably also invite denial and contradiction (re: Siegel). And before you know what hit you, it turns into something like the climate change ‘debate’: just because a handful of ‘experts’ deny what’s right in front of their faces as tens of thousands of scientists do not, doesn’t mean there’s a valid discussion there. It’s just noise with an agenda.

And though the global climate system is infinitely more complex than the very vast majority of people acknowledge, fact remains that a plethora of machine-driven and assisted human activities emit greenhouse gases, greenhouse gases trap heat and higher concentrations of greenhouse gases trap more heat. In very similar ways, central banks’ stimuli (love that word) play havoc, and blow bubbles, with and within the economic system. Ain’t no denying the obvious child.

But even more than the climate ‘debate’, the bubble expert articles made us think of a Jerry Seinfeld episode called The Opera, which ends with Jerry doing a stand-up shtick that goes like this:

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Money for Nothin’ and your Chicks for Free – and your Houses too!

April 21, 2015

Money for Nothin’ and your Chicks for Free – and your Houses too!

Nothing Against the Old

We would like to preface today’s Diary with a clarification: We don’t have anything against old people. We don’t have anything against high GDP growth rates either. But the two don’t go together.

Some of this opinion comes from looking in the mirror: New products? New technology? New businesses? The older we get the less interest we have. When we learn a “new” song on the guitar, for example, it is likely to be one written half a century ago.

When we sit down to watch a movie, we’re as likely to pick out something from Leslie Nielsen’s Naked Gun series as a new Hollywood release. There are different stages in life… with different interests. One dear reader explains it:

In India there is a concept of Vrana ashram. In it, a person’s life is divided in four parts. From birth until 25, it is Brahmacharya – a person should gain knowledge by reading scriptures. From 25 to 50, it is Grihastha ashram – to live married life. From 50 to 75, it Vanaprastha – away from society in the forest seeking god. From 75 to 100, it is Sannays – complete renouncing of the world.”

We guess we are in the Vanaprastha stage. Maybe that’s what we’re really doing out on this remote ranch high in the Argentine Andes: seeking god.

Keeping the Money Spinning

Is there anything wrong with that? Not that we know of. But it is not the way to boost GDP.´One reader pointed out that the problem is not too many old people. It’s too few young people.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Crushing The “Lower Gas Price = More Spending” Fiction | Zero Hedge

December 3, 2014

Crushing The “Lower Gas Price = More Spending” Fiction | Zero Hedge.

Caveats to the equation: lower gas prices = more spending

Aside from the long-standing issues of minimal income growth and lackluster job creation, consumers have become accustomed to an end-of-the-year price reprieve at the pump, and in some cases are simply using the increased funds to offset rising utilities and health care costs. We explore the various facets of this in further detail below:

1) Consumers have become accustomed to extreme volatility in energy prices. Particularly around this time of year, consumers are increasingly familiar with energy price reprieve from summer gas prices and no longer adjust their long-term spending habits as much, or at all, based on short-term price fluctuations.

Since reaching a high of $3.69 in June, average gas prices have fallen more than fifty cents a gallon, to a monthly average of $3.17 as of October, and have continued to fall throughout the early weeks of November. While impressive, this four-month decline is hardly unusual. In 2011, retail gasoline prices fell from an average monthly high of $3.91 in May to $3.27 by year-end, a decline of nearly sixty-five cents over seven months.

Then again in 2012, after ratcheting up to $3.85 at the end of September, gasoline prices tumbled more than fifty cents a gallon in just three months, down to $3.31 before turning the corner to 2013. And finally, last year told a similar story of lower energy prices before the holidays, dropping nearly thirty-five cents by the end of the year to $3.28 a gallon.

In each case, retail spending was hardly robust with an average monthly sales pace of 0.4% over the past four years. In fact, the largest monthly increase was in September 2012, up over 1%, thanks to a hefty increase in electronics purchases corresponding to the release of the iPhone 5. This September, retail sales saw a similar boost from the release of the iPhone 6.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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