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BLACK MONDAY: The First Time EVER The Dow Has Dropped By More Than 500 Points On Two Consecutive Days
BLACK MONDAY: The First Time EVER The Dow Has Dropped By More Than 500 Points On Two Consecutive Days
On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 588 points. It was the 8th worst single day stock market crash in U.S. history, and it was the first time that the Dow has ever fallen by more than 500 points on two consecutive days. But the amazing thing is that the Dow actually performed better than almost every other major global stock market on Monday. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both did worse than the Dow. In Europe, almost every major index performed significantly worse than the Dow. Over in Asia, Japanese stocks were down 895 points, and Chinese stocks experienced the biggest decline of all (a whopping 8.46 percent). On June 25th, I was not kidding around when I issued a “red alert” for the last six months of 2015. I had never issued a formal alert for any other period of time, and I specifically stated that “a major financial collapse is imminent“. But you know what? As the weeks and months roll along, things will eventually be even worse than what any of the experts (including myself) have been projecting. The global financial system is now unraveling, and you better pack a lunch because this is going to be one very long horror show.
Our world has not seen a day quite like Monday in a very, very long time. Let’s start our discussion where the carnage began…
Asian Markets
For weeks, the Chinese government has been taking unprecedented steps to try to stop Chinese stocks from crashing, but nothing has worked. As most Americans slept on Sunday night, the markets in China absolutely imploded…
As Europe and North America slept on Sunday night, Chinese markets went through the floor — the Shanghai Composite index of stocks fell by 8.49%, the biggest single-day collapse since 2007.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It’s easy to deny a bubble but impossible to deny its implosion.
It’s easy to deny a bubble but impossible to deny its implosion.
We’re having the kind of day when the New York Stock Exchange felt compelled toannounce very encouragingly before markets opened that it would halt trading for 15 minutes if the S&P 500 drops 7% to 1,833 before 3:25 p.m. Once trading restarts and the index plunges 13% before 3:25 p.m., trading would be suspended for a second time. If the index plunges 20% at any point today, NYSE would shut the market entirely for the rest of the day.
Monday’s meltdown commenced in Japan.
A follow-on to Friday’s debacle. The Nikkei started out in the hole and dove from there, ending the day down 4.6%. This is a market where the central bank has a mega-QE program in place with an explicit policy to buy equities to inflate them. Yet, despite the furious efforts by the Bank of Japan’s trading desk, the Nikkei dropped to 18,541, down 11.5% since June, the lowest since February.
It was in reaction to a whiff of panic in China, triggered by a total loss of faith in the government’s and the central bank’s machinery designed to prop up the markets.
The Shanghai Composite Index opened down nearly 4% and went to heck from there, closing at 3,210, down 8.5%. It annihilated the entire phenomenal bubble gains this year.
The thing is, the government vowed to support the stock market when it hit the “policy bottom” of 3,500 to 3,600 points. Now that it crashed through what was nothing but a line in the sand, hopes have shifted down to a new line in the sand of 3,000 points.
In all Chinese stock markets, only 12 stocks rose, and 2,200 stocks hit their 10%-down limit.
Panic!! All Major US Equity Indices Halted
Panic!! All Major US Equity Indices Halted
Nasdaq was the first to be halted at 0758ET.
The Dow is now down 850 points from Friday’s close and halted…
The S&P 500 Futures is halted for the first time in history.
TSX and Dow plunge again on fears of China-led slowdown
Dow in correction territory as investors hit ‘sell’ button
North American stock markets closed sharply lower again today, ending what was a dismal week for equities as fears about the global economy and falling oil prices had many investors selling.
The main benchmark index of the Toronto Stock Exchange sank to its lowest point in almost 18 months. It ended a busy trading day down 263 points, or 1.9 per cent, at 13,473. That followed a drop of almost 300 points on Thursday. Once again, the heavily weighted financial and energy groups led the declines.
“Everybody’s concerned about China,” said David Baskin, president of Baskin Wealth Management. ‘If there’s lower growth or even a recession in China, obviously that has a major impact because that’s, by most measures, the second biggest economy in the world.”
Much of the TSX’s slide stems from oil, which has now declined for eight straight weeks. That’s the longest losing streak for oil since 1986, a time when OPEC drove the price down as low as $10 a barrel. Oil settled Friday at $40.45 US a barrel, down 87 cents. At one point, it traded as low as $39.86, the first time it had dipped below $40 since 2009.
The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 531 points, or 3.1 per cent, to close at 16,460. With that drop, the Dow entered official correction territory, which refers to a drop of at least 10 per cent from its most recent high.
The broader S&P 500 index suffered its biggest daily percentage drop in nearly four years.
European concerns
European markets were also rattled by news that Greek PM Alexis Tsipras would step down and hold new elections on Sept. 20.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Birinyi’s S&P 3200 Call——Bull From A 30-Year Bull
Birinyi’s S&P 3200 Call——Bull From A 30-Year Bull
When stock market guru Laszlo Birinyi told bubblevision today that S&P 3200 would be reached by 2017, his argument was essentially to keep on keeping on:
“What we’re really trying to tell people is stay with it, don’t let the bad news shake you out…There’s no reason we can’t keep on going,” he said.
That got me to thinking about when I first ran into Birinyi at Salomon Brothers way back in 1986. He was then a relatively underpaid numbers cruncher in the equity research department who was adept at making the bull case. Nigh onto 30 years later he has become a rich man crunching the numbers and still making the bull case.
Indeed, I don’t ever recall when he wasn’t making the case to be long equities, and as the chart below shows, you didn’t actually have to crunch the numbers to get there. Just riding the bull from 200 in January 1986 to today’s approximate 2100 on the S&P 500 index computes to a 8.4%CAGR and a 10% annual gain with dividends.
Even when you take the inflation out of it, this 30-year run is something close to awesome. But, alas, that’s my point. It’s too awesome.
In inflation-adjusted terms, the S&P 500 index rose by 6.2% per annum over the last three decades. That compares to just a 2.2% annual advance for real GDP, meaning that the market has risen nearly 3X faster than national output in real terms.
You don’t have to be a math genius to realize that a few more decades of that kind of huge annual spread, and the stock market capitalization would be several hundred times larger than GDP.
Likewise, you don’t have to be a PhD in quantitative historical research to recognize that the last three decades are utterly unique. If you run the clock backwards by 30 years from the January 1986 starting point, for instance, you get a totally different picture.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Robert Shiller: Unlike 1929 This Time Everything – Stocks, Bonds And Housing – Is Overvalued
Robert Shiller: Unlike 1929 This Time Everything – Stocks, Bonds And Housing – Is Overvalued
Robert Shiller is a professor of economics and finance at Yale University. He is the author of Irrational Exuberance, which in 2000 predicted the collapse of the tech bubble and is now in its third edition. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2013 for his work on asset prices and financial market behavior.
In the attached interview he observes that the recent equity run-up seems to be driven more by fear than by exuberance, as a lack of confidence in the future prompts investors to save more and thereby bid up asset prices.
Below is an interview he gave to Goldman Sachs’ Allison Nathan
Allison Nathan: Are US stocks overvalued today?
Robert Shiller: I think that compared with history, US stocks are overvalued. One way to assess this is by looking at the CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E) ratio that I created with John Campbell, now at Harvard, 25 years ago. The ratio is defined as the real stock price (using the S&P Composite Stock Price Index deflated by the CPI) divided by the ten-year average of real earnings per share. We have found this ratio to be a good predictor of subsequent stock market returns, especially over the long run. The CAPE ratio has recently been around 27, which is quite high by US historical standards. The only other times it has been that high or higher were in 1929, 2000, and 2007—all moments before market crashes.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Lenin Was Right …
Lenin Was Right …
Bear Markets Do Happen
Today… the second of the speech about the end of the world we recently gave at Doug Casey’s La Estancia de Cafayate. (You can catch up on the first part here.) As Yogi Berra would say, America is going to come to a fork in the road… and it’s going to take it.
Right now, the Fed isn’t as aggressive as the European Central Bank (which is set to pump €1.2 trillion into the financial markets by way of its QE program) or as innovative as the Bank of Japan (which is buying stock market funds as well as bonds by way of its QE).
Valuations are at extreme highs on Wall Street. Take Warren Buffett’s favorite measure – market cap to GDP. With an eight-month exception at the height of the dot-com boom (and you know what happened next), the value of all outstanding S&P 500 shares is the highest it has been relative to US GDP in the last 100 years.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank is warning that S&P 500 earnings per share will be flat this year when compared with 2014. Retail sales are down about 9% on an annual basis over the past three months. And the US GDP has slowed to an annual rate of just over 1%… with the possibility of a surprise recession on the horizon. Besides, crashes and bear markets happen. This seems as good a time as any.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Market Tops In! Why Buy-The-Dippers Can’t Get It Up
Market Tops In! Why Buy-The-Dippers Can’t Get It Up
I am sure some chart reader can explain the S&P 500’s laborious struggle since September 2——the day it crossed the 2000 barrier—-as a classic “wall of worry”. But that event occurred nearly seven months ago and the market has dipped 15 times since then and has actually plunged six times (by more than 3%). And all it had to show for its exertions going into today’s opening was a 50 point or 2.5% gain. In this bull market, that’s a rounding error.
So we have arrived at a precarious place. After the Fed has spent six-years inflating a new and even more stupendous financial bubble—-the third this century—-the market top is in. And after five-and-one-half years of so-called recovery from the recession’s end in June 2009, the bottom is now falling out of the economy—-both abroad and here, too.
In that context, a new form of danger arises. The Keynesian pettifoggers at the Fed have painted themselves into an epochal corner. After 78 months of ZIRP they have no idea about how and why they got here; and now, mired deep in the lunacy of free money, they are clueless about where they are going next.
But here’s the thing. During its long descent into ZIRP, consensus at the Fed came from the Easy Button. Once they got to the zero bound in December 2008, it was always possible to find one more reason for delaying the day of interest rate normalization and to persuade any reluctant members of the FOMC that the economy had not quite emerged from its slump, even if “escape velocity” into full employment was just around the corner.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Saxobank CIO Warns “Another Shock Drop Is Coming.. And It’s Coming Soon” | Zero Hedge
Saxobank CIO Warns “Another Shock Drop Is Coming.. And It’s Coming Soon” | Zero Hedge.
Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen is predicting another ‘shock drop’ in the markets within a few weeks. With debt and low inflation continuing to create a nervous atmosphere behind most markets, Steen argues that we will hit fresh lows in mid-November. Steen takes the view that central bank policy is creating a ‘fantasy land’ for investors and he points out that the recent ‘day dive’ in markets was a closer reflection of reality. Steen outlines his suggestions for trading ahead of another dip in mid November with targets for the S&P 500 around 1810 and the Dax at 8000 – 7800. Be long fixed income as it is “a free put on the equity market.. and the economic cycle is not yet ready to adapt to a rising interest rate.”
…click on the above link to view the video…
Forget about Ebola – here’s why US banks (and your savings) are now EXTREMELY vulnerable
Forget about Ebola – here’s why US banks (and your savings) are now EXTREMELY vulnerable.
For a casual observer of the US economy (most “experts”), you could say that things look pretty good. Unemployment is at its lowest rate in six years. Earnings of S&P 500 companies are higher than ever, while their debt is lower than it’s been in the last 24 years.
Nonetheless, rather than getting excited for good economic times, the big commercial banks are all battening down the hatches. They’re preparing for bad times ahead.
I often stress the importance of being prepared, so in theory, that should be a great sign.
…click on the link above for the rest of the article…
