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Sweden Launches MOAR QE, As Krugman Paradise Quadruples Down After Dovish Draghi
Sweden Launches MOAR QE, As Krugman Paradise Quadruples Down After Dovish Draghi
Over the last six months, we’ve documented Sweden’s descent into the Keynesian Twilight Zone in great detail.
Once upon a time, the Riksbank actually tried to raise rates, only to be lambasted by a furious Paul Krugman who accused the central bank of unnecessarily transforming Sweden from “recovery rockstar” to deflationary deathtrap. Tragically, the Riksbank listened to Krugman and reversed course in 2011. Before you knew it, rates had plunged 35 basis points into NIRP-dom. Unemployment subsequently fell, but the promised lift in inflation didn’t quite pan out. Sweden did, however, get a massive housing bubble for their trouble:
Obviously, those charts beg the question of why in the world Sweden (or Denmark, or Norway for that matter… or hell, even the US) are trying to contend that there’s no inflationary impulse, but let’s leave that for another day.
As for the Riksbank’s QE program, things began to go awry during the summer when the central bank managed to buy such a large percentage of the stock of government bonds that market depth was affected, causing investors to reconsider the trade off between liquidity and the benefits of frontrunning central bank asset purchases. In short, government bond yields began to rise in what perhaps marked the first instance of QE actually breaking.
But that didn’t stop the Riksbank from doubling down and increasing their asset purchases just a week later.
Since then, it’s been touch and go, with Stefan Ingves looking warily south towards Frankfurt hoping Mario Draghi doesn’t do something that sends the krona soaring on the way to ushering in a deflationary impulse.
Well, that’s exactly what Draghi did last week when the ECB telegraphed either a further depo rate cut, an expansion of PSPP, or both in December. That pretty much sealed the deal for the Riksbank – either cut, expand QE, or concede defeat in the global currency wars.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
IMF Warns That We Have a New Crisis Coming
IMF Warns That We Have a New Crisis Coming
QUESTION: Marty; You mentioned that you met with a board member of the IMF. It certainly seems you are having a much larger impact than you may realize. The IMF is now warning of a crash. Do you think you can help reverse the trend if given the chance?
Thank you for caring
BG
ANSWER: I absolutely could mitigate the crisis. There would be much I could stop in 30 days or less. But the trend is the trend. The system is collapsing. It is not because of some derivatives bubble. It is not because of fiat. This is because of the debt gone wild and governments run by politicians who are clueless and assume that they can bully their way through this by writing laws. LaGarde is now warning that we have not fixed the problems from the last crisis and we have another one brewing.
Yet the IMF is focused on the rising risk of a global financial crash because of a slowdown in China, which undermines the stability of highly indebted emerging economies. The IMF is not saying much other than there are three crisis epic centers within the emerging market crisis including China, Brazil, Turkey, and Malaysia. This could shave 3% off of global GDP, which would devastate Europe in particular. Then there is the chaos of debt in Europe because of the failed euro, but that is a political problem and means politicians need to admit error. The IMF has warned about the battered global markets that have experienced a sharp decline in liquidity since 2007 and are more likely to transmit shocks rather than cushion the blow.
These three areas that the IMF is warning about are the symptoms rather than the causes. The IMF has not identified the root cause of this chaos and that is all emerging from the fact that governments borrow, owe debt, and in turn raise taxes, which lowers growth and reducing living standards. Wait for the pension crisis to hit. A further decline will undermine the European banks and will cause a real meltdown.
Where Is the First Helicopter Drop of Money Likely to Land?
Where Is the First Helicopter Drop of Money Likely to Land?
So what’s left in the toolbag of central banks and states to stimulate recessionary economies if QE has been discredited? The answer: Helicopter Money.
We all know helicopter money of some kind is coming as the global economy spirals into recession. Quantitative Easing (QE)–the monetary stimulus of distributing newly created central-bank money to private banks–has been discredited, as even cheerleaders and apologists now admit it has only widened wealth and income inequality.
So what’s left in the toolbag of central banks and states to stimulate recessionary economies if QE has been discredited? The answer: Helicopter Money.
Gordon T. Long and I discuss Helicopter Money in this video program: who is likely to receive the first drops, and who will be the ultimate winners and losers.
Gordon leads off by covering how money is created by central and private banks, i.e. how money is lent into existence.
Next, we discuss how helicopter money works: central states issue bonds (new debt) to fund helicopter drops of free money to stimulate demand for goods and services, and central banks buy the bonds with freshly created money.
This monetizing of state debt by the central bank is the engine of helicopter money. When the central state issues $1 trillion in bonds and drops the money into household bank accounts, the central bank buys the new bonds and promptly buries them in the bank’s balance sheet as an asset.
The Japanese model is to lower interest rates to the point that the cost of issuing new sovereign debt is reduced to near-zero. Until, of course, the sovereign debt piles up into a mountain so vast that servicing the interest absorbs 40+% of all tax revenues.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The G-30 Group Of Central Bankers Warn They Can “No Longer Save The World”
The G-30 Group Of Central Bankers Warn They Can “No Longer Save The World”
In a detailed report by the Group of Thirty, central bankers warned that ZIRP and money printing were not sufficient to revive economic growth and risked becoming semi-permanent measures. As Reuters reports, the flow of easy money has inflated asset prices like stocks and housing in many countries but have failed to stimulate economic growth; and with growth estimates trending lower and easy money increasing company leverage, the specter of a debt trap is now haunting advanced economies. “Central banks have described their actions as ‘buying time’ for governments to finally resolve the crisis… But time is wearing on,” sending a message of “you’re on your own” to governments around the world.
The G30 begins their report rather pointedly…
Central banks worked alongside governments to address the unfolding crises during 2007–09, and their actions were a necessary and appropriate crisis management response. But central bank policies alone should not be expected to deliver sustainable economic growth. Such policies must be complemented by other policy measures implemented by governments.At present, much remains to be done by governments, parliaments, public authorities, and the private sector to tackle policy, economic, and structural weaknesses that originate outside the control or influence of central banks. In order to contribute to sustainable economic growth, the report presumes that all other actors fulfill their responsibilities.
Roughly translated… central bankers are saying “you are now on your own.”
Central banks alone cannot be relied upon to deliver all the policies necessary to achieve macroeconomic goals. Governments must also act and use the policy-making space provided by conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures. Failure to do so would be a serious error and would risk setting the stage for further economic disturbances and imbalances in the future.
And the “need to exit” appears to be front and center for The G30 bankers…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece Fallout: Italy and Spain Have Funded a Massive Backdoor Bailout of French Banks
Greece Fallout: Italy and Spain Have Funded a Massive Backdoor Bailout of French Banks
The €110 billion of loans provided to Greece by the IMF and Eurozone in May 2010 enabled Greece to avoid default on its obligations to these banks. In the absence of such loans, France would have been forced into a massive bailout of its banking system. Instead, French banks were able virtually to eliminate their exposure to Greece by selling bonds, allowing bonds to mature, and taking partial write-offs in 2012. The bailout effectively mutualized much of their exposure within the Eurozone.
The impact of this backdoor bailout of French banks is being felt now, with Greece on the precipice of an historic default. Whereas in March 2010 about 40% of total European lending to Greece was via French banks, today only 0.6% is. Governments have filled the breach, but not in proportion to their banks’ exposure in 2010. Rather, it is in proportion to their paid-up capital at the ECB – which in France’s case is only 20%.
In consequence, France has actually managed to reduce its total Greek exposure – sovereign and bank – by €8 billion, as seen in the main figure above. In contrast, Italy, which had virtually no exposure to Greece in 2010 now has a massive one: €39 billion. Total German exposure is up by a similar amount – €35 billion. Spain has also seen its exposure rocket from nearly nothing in 2009 to €25 billion today.
In short, France has managed to use the Greek bailout to offload €8 billion in junk debt onto its neighbors and burden them with tens of billions more in debt they could have avoided had Greece simply been allowed to default in 2010. The upshot is that Italy and Spain are much closer to financial crisis today than they should be.
It was the creditors who pushed Greece over the edge
It was the creditors who pushed Greece over the edge
If they had truly cared, the creditors could have easily prevented a default. Sadly, they found it more important to punish Greece and set an example.
Image: sticking posters for the NO campaign ahead of Sunday’s referendum.
On Tuesday, Greece became the first developed country to default on the IMF — and the pro-creditor camp is already propagating the convenient self-serving myth that the country’s “radical” and “irresponsible” government is somehow to blame for this. Nothing could be further from the truth.
To begin with, we should note that defaults come in many forms and guises — and not all of them are the debtor’s fault. In my own research on the political economy of sovereign debt, I identify at least four types of default: (1) negotiated reschedulings; (2) voluntary restructurings; (3) unilateral moratoriums; and (4) outright debt repudiations.
What is interesting about sovereign debt in general (and about international lending in particular) is the almost wholesale absence of repudiation. By and large, countries try extremely hard to repay their debts in full and on time — even when they cannot. In the worst case scenarios, they may be able to negotiate a rescheduling or restructuring of the debt with their lenders. In exceptional cases, countries can declare a moratorium on repayments. While this was very commonprior to World War II, it is extremely rare today.
In this respect, the first thing to note is that Greece clearly did not repudiate its debts outright: despite the preliminary conclusions of the Greek parliamentary debt audit committee, which found much of the country’s debt to be odious, illegitimate and illegal, the Syriza/ANEL government still formally recognizes the legally binding character of the debt contracts. Its IMF default therefore looks more like an undeclared moratorium: Greece could still settle its arrears with the Fund at a later stage if it somehow managed to secure new credit.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
With Sweden’s QE Officially Broken, The Riksbank Doubles Down: Lowers Rates Even More Negative; Boosts QE
With Sweden’s QE Officially Broken, The Riksbank Doubles Down: Lowers Rates Even More Negative; Boosts QE
It was precisely one week ago when we described how, for the first time in history, QE had officially failed to achieve its stated objective of pushing yields lower (ignoring that the real purpose is to push stock prices higher). In fact, it the outcome was precisely the opposite because as a result of the ongoing QE by Sweden’s Riksbank, and not enough collateral, the “soaking up” of eligible debt made the market so illiquid, buyers were unwilling to touch the bonds until yields rose enough to offset the liquidity risk.
As Danske Bank explained: “Swedish rates continue to trade strong relative to Germany because of a lack of material in the repo market as a result of the Riksbank’s QE program.”
We added that the Riksbank targets about $10 billion in government bond purchases as it tries to revive consumer-price growth after months of deflation. That’s about 14 percent of the market or 3 percent of Sweden’s gross domestic product.
And the punchline: “any efforts to expand asset purchases would deplete Sweden’s already limited sovereign debt supply“, SEB AB and Danske Bank have said.
This also came just days ahead of the latest BIS semiannual report in which it blasted central banks for engaging in wanton, endless QE which has pushed stocks to all time highs only at the expense of bond market liquidity.
So what did the Swedish central bank do? Overnight the Riksbank confirmed that it neither learns from its own mistakes, nor reads BIS reports when at 9:30 CET, it shocked central bank watcher all of whom were expecting no rate change from the bank, and announced it is not only engaging in yet another rate cut, taking the key rate even further into record NIRP territory, from -0.25% to -0.35%…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
When Bonds Go Kaboom!
When Bonds Go Kaboom!
We’re not the only ones giving Neanderthal advice about holding on to physical cash. British newspaper the Telegraph reports:
The manager of one of Britain’s biggest bond funds has urged investors to keep cash under the mattress. Ian Spreadbury, who invests more than £4bn of investors’ money across a handful of bond funds for Fidelity, is concerned that a “systemic event” could rock markets, possibly similar in magnitude to the financial crisis of 2008…
The best strategy to deal with this, he said, was for investors to spread their money widely into different assets, including gold and silver, as well as cash in savings accounts. But he went further, suggesting it was wise to hold some “physical cash,” an unusual suggestion from a mainstream fund manager.
The Fuse Is Lit
The markets seem to be in wait-and-see mode. Yesterday, we were waiting to see what happens in Greece. Today, we wait to see what happens in the bond markets. We watch them like we watch a stick of dynamite. For a long time, it might sit there… silent… still…
Then all of a sudden – kaboom!
At the end of January, it looked as though bond yields had finally found their bottom. With $5 trillion of sovereign debt trading at negative yields, bond prices began to fall. And yields, which move in the opposite direction to prices, started to rise.
Not for the first time did we think: The fuse is lit!
We were 33 years old when this bond market made its last turn. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond hit a high of almost 15% in 1982. Yields have been trending downward ever since. If we had only imagined what would happen next!
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Germany, France Call for Fiscal and Political Union. Public Ignorance Vital for Success of EU Power Grab
Germany, France Call for Fiscal and Political Union. Public Ignorance Vital for Success of EU Power Grab
Since Europe’s sovereign debt problems exploded onto the scene in 2010 the European Union has masterfully exploited the crisis to strengthen its grip over the old continent. It has stripped once-proud, independent nations of the last vestiges of their economic sovereignty. It has also pulled off the long-cherished dream of banking union, which was quietly consummated last fall.
Now, with the help of Berlin and Paris, it is looking to complete the coup. And this time not in the shadows, but in broad daylight.
The first move was to prep the masses. In an article published in The Guardian,Emmanuel Macron, France’s Minister of the Economy, and Sigmar Gabriel, the German Vice-Chancellor, outlined the broad strokes of the plan, calling for greater fiscal and social harmonization in the Eurozone while conceding that other EU countries like Britain should be allowed to settle for a less integrated Union based on the single market — at least temporarily:
Our common goal is to render it unthinkable for any country in pursuit of its national interest to consider a future without Europe (meaning, one assumes the EU) – or within a lesser union.
Straightening A Crooked Brussels
“The euro was built on a Franco-German understanding but also on a typically European compromise,” they write. “This gives France and Germany a particular responsibility to straighten what is crooked” — an eminently fitting phrase.
“A new, staged process of convergence is needed,” the authors add. This would involve not only structural reforms (labor, business and the environment) and institutional reforms (functioning of economic governance) but also social and tax convergence – all in the name of addressing the “critical flaws in the architecture of monetary union.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Japan’s The Tinder That Set The World’s Bad News On Fire – The Automatic Earth
Japan’s The Tinder That Set The World’s Bad News On Fire – The Automatic Earth.
I can do this in just about random order, the idea should still shine through, and crystal clear at that. We’re on the verge not of a market correction, but of something much bigger. All it takes to know that is to connect a few dots. Ironically, the very same financial press that reports on the dots, refuses to connect them. Don’t they see it, or don’t they want to? It’s not even a very interesting question anymore: they’ll end up commenting only in hindsight.
What happens today in Japan is both a sign of what’s wrong with the entire global financial system, and at the same time the catalyst that will help bring that system to its knees. Japan goes where no man has gone before, because it’s further down the gutter than the rest. But they will all follow. Japan thinks it can escape collapse if the US does fine, and vice versa, and the same goes for China, Europe etc., but none of them can survive the big blow by themselves, let alone that one of them could lift any of the others up by the hair on their heads. It’s a desperate mirage. When you hear anyone say the US will lift up the world economy, switch your channel. Unless you’re already at Comedy Central.
Here’s the litany for the day: China prints $25 trillion and buys Portugal. Japan’s national debt is 750% of tax revenue. US first time homebuyers are at a 27 year low. 40.5% of Greek children grow up in poverty, as Greece is part of the eurozone that should take care of all citizens. In the UK 72% of 18-21-year olds make less than a living wage. US and Japanese QE leads to ‘consumers’ spending less, which is the exact opposite of what QE is supposed to be intended for. China is trapped in the newfangled currency war Japan’s QE has unleashed across Asia, and which will soon be exported across the globe.
