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Rabobank: Our Coronavirus Base Case Is Rapidly Shifting From “Bad” To “Ugly”
Rabobank: Our Coronavirus Base Case Is Rapidly Shifting From “Bad” To “Ugly” Regular readers will know that our four projected COVID-19 scenarios were “Bad, Worse, Ugly, and Unthinkable”. Current news today suggests risks that the base case is rapidly shifting from “Bad”, meaning only China is impacted, to “Ugly”, where both emerging Asia and developed economies see […]
Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful
Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful As has been the case since Monday’s sell-off, there is an attempt to try to look on the bright side of the virus headlines. Chinese officials are spreading the word globally that things are under control and that other countries should not be closing their borders to […]
Rabobank: “What If We Are On The Brink Of An Exponential Increase In Coronavirus Cases?”
Rabobank: “What If We Are On The Brink Of An Exponential Increase In Coronavirus Cases?” The beginning of 2020 starts to look alarmingly similar to 2018. Back then the US stocks extended their impressive 2017 gains in the first few weeks of trading only to plunge at the end of January and sustain heavy losses […]
Rabobank: “Imagine London In Full Lockdown”
Rabobank: “Imagine London In Full Lockdown” Imagine London in full lockdown. Hard? Well, Chinese authorities just decided to issue a Wuhan travel ban, locking down a city with more inhabitants than London. Stopping the spread of the new SARS-like corona virus is the aim, as more and more cases of contagion have been reported, for which […]
Rabobank: “World War 3? The US Has Crossed A Red Line… But It’s Not The One They Think”
Rabobank: “World War 3? The US Has Crossed A Red Line… But It’s Not The One They Think” “World War Three!” is trending on social media the day I return to work after two weeks off deliberately not reading any news for once: ironic given my reputation for being bearish about geopolitics. Markets, of course, have failed to […]
Rabobank: “Global Central-Bankery Continues To Go Where No-One Has Gone Before”
Rabobank: “Global Central-Bankery Continues To Go Where No-One Has Gone Before” Stocks at new recorder record highs; bonds up (yields down); CNY up; broad USD DXY up; China issuing USD6bn of sovereign debt at a narrow spread over USTs….it’s all up, up, and away. And why not? Trump tells us the US is “in the […]
Powell Doesn’t Change His Tune… And Rabobank Sees Fed Cutting To Zero
Powell Doesn’t Change His Tune… And Rabobank Sees Fed Cutting To Zero The tone of Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks in Zurich was similar to that of his speech in Jackson Hole. Powell repeated the statement that the Fed will ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,’ which indicates that he is leaning toward a September […]
Focus Is Increasingly On How Similar Conditions Are To The Lead Up To WW2: Rabobank
Focus Is Increasingly On How Similar Conditions Are To The Lead Up To WW2: Rabobank Back with a bang As mentioned on Friday, welcome to both La Grande rentrée and weltschmerz: and combining the two, this week we are ‘back with a bang’. That seems appropriate given yesterday marked 80 years since the start of WW2, which one […]
Elites “Going Rogue” Suggests The Global Neoliberal Architecture Is Collapsing
Elites “Going Rogue” Suggests The Global Neoliberal Architecture Is Collapsing Listen carefully. That is the sound of going rogue – and bond yields further through the floor. Yesterday UK PM Boris Johnson announced he is going to prorogue–or close–Parliament, meaning that when MPs come back to sit next week they will only do so briefly, […]
Rabobank: “The US Will Simply Not Allow A New Reserve Currency Without A Fight”
Rabobank: “The US Will Simply Not Allow A New Reserve Currency Without A Fight” “Peace for our time” Despite the fact that the German IFO survey was ‘I-ful’, with the official word being that the outlook is “increasingly dire”, and that US core durable goods were -0.4% vs. flat expected, both of which confirm that […]
Strait Outta Hormuz
Strait Outta Hormuz The Strait of Hormuz these days seems to be what the streets of Compton used to be in the 90s. Yesterday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it has seized a “foreign vessel” for smuggling fuel. And this morning, news came in that the US has shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of […]
Rabobank: “The Biggest Explosions Are Still To Come”
Rabobank: “The Biggest Explosions Are Still To Come” Civil War, Infinity War, or Endgame? US consumers are feeling more confident according to yesterday’s data, and they also think things can only get better. Meanwhile, Europe is patting itself on the back over the far right not dominating in the EU elections, even if they did […]
Rabo: The World Is Banking On China (But Japan Points To Our Future)
Rabo: The World Is Banking On China (But Japan Points To Our Future) Market comments There is a saying in the market that if you want to see the future of monetary policy, you just have to look at Japan. Well, as expected, BoJ Governor Kuroda and his team decided to keep policy unchanged, despite a […]
Rabobank: “We Can’t Even Imagine What The Chinese Response Will Be To The Green New Deal”
Rabobank: “We Can’t Even Imagine What The Chinese Response Will Be To The Green New Deal” The bent out of shape of things to come If regular readers have not picked up on our view on US-China relations, it is that although just enough good will can be scraped together to kick the can down […]
