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Rabobank: Our Coronavirus Base Case Is Rapidly Shifting From “Bad” To “Ugly”
Rabobank: Our Coronavirus Base Case Is Rapidly Shifting From “Bad” To “Ugly”
Regular readers will know that our four projected COVID-19 scenarios were “Bad, Worse, Ugly, and Unthinkable”. Current news today suggests risks that the base case is rapidly shifting from “Bad”, meaning only China is impacted, to “Ugly”, where both emerging Asia and developed economies see soaring infection rates and deaths.
After all, following Vietnam, Iran now has eight deaths and an uncertain number of cases, prompting schools and universities to closed and the borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan to be sealed from the other side. For an economy already being crushed by sanctions, this is all that it needed. More worrying for markets, South Korea (with a GDP of over USD1 trillion) has also been swamped by hundreds of new cases, a 20-fold leap in just five days, and, as in China, is seeing the highest-level emergency declared, cities on lock-down, gatherings and travel bans in place, and the national assembly additionally suspended. Samsung has had to shutter at least one factory, in the city of Gumi. The Asian economy, already reeling, it about to suffer another major kick.
Worse, in Europe there also are over 160 cases in a cluster in northern Italy, with three deaths so far, and the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, the industrial and financial heartlands, in both panic and lockdown. Venice’s Carnival has been cancelled, and so was a recent fashion show. Italy is 11% of Eurozone GDP, and those two regions are 30% of Italy’s GDP. For a Eurozone already close to recession, that shock could well be more than enough to generate a downturn.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful
Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful
As has been the case since Monday’s sell-off, there is an attempt to try to look on the bright side of the virus headlines. Chinese officials are spreading the word globally that things are under control and that other countries should not be closing their borders to China, in line with the WHO recommendations that says that free-flows of people during a potential epidemic is completely fine.Of course, at home China is still under draconian lockdown, with tens of millions of people not allowed to leave their homes, and hundreds of millions more voluntarily following the same advice. Moreover, as a former Mexican ambassador to China publicly notes, when Mexico briefly suffered from H1N1 bird ‘flu back in 2009 China’s response was to ignore the WHO’s recommendations and: place all Mexican nationals in China under quarantine; cancel all direct flights to Mexico; stop issuing visas to Mexicans; and closed all its consulates in Mexico.
After having extended its Lunar New Year break, and yet with more cities and firms still shutting down than doing any re-opening, Beijing is starting to become cognizant of just how deep and serious the economic damage is going to be if this goes on much longer. We are, after all, talking about 80% of the economy, and 90% of exporters, simply not functioning. This is already seeing supply-chain knock-on effects for a swathe of global firms and this, very much like the virus itself, will snowball as time passes if nothing changes. For a country that was already seeing foreign firms talk about shifting production to other locations this is a problem. Thus, perhaps, some of the urgency in trying to stress that everything is returning to normal soon, and that the WHO advice is worth following – this time.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: “What If We Are On The Brink Of An Exponential Increase In Coronavirus Cases?”
Rabobank: “What If We Are On The Brink Of An Exponential Increase In Coronavirus Cases?”
The beginning of 2020 starts to look alarmingly similar to 2018. Back then the US stocks extended their impressive 2017 gains in the first few weeks of trading only to plunge at the end of January and sustain heavy losses in the first half of February. In that period the S&P 500 Index plunged almost 12% from the peak to trough on the back of rising concerns that inflation may rise much faster than initially anticipated forcing the Fed to accelerate the pace of monetary policy tightening. It was just a taste of what was to come as 2018 proved to be a tumultuous year for the US equities which set record highs in September only to end the year deep in the red.
Back to 2020, global stocks are in a risk off mode amid escalating concerns about the coronavirus. The S&P 500 Index plunged 1.57% on Monday trimming its year-to-date gains to just 0.40%. One could argue that this is just a correction from seriously stretched levels that will ultimately prove as an opportunity to buy stocks on the back of an assumption that the Chinese officials will, eventually, get on top of the coronavirus.
However, it is extremely difficult to estimate the negative impact on the Chinese economy at a time when the death toll is rising sharply (106 so far) and the number of confirmed cases is soaring (4,515 as of today). More than 50 million people in China are now in a lockdown.
t is also worth considering the following: what if we are on the brink of an exponential increase in the number of people affected by the deadly virus? One could argue that we have already reached this stage given that confirmed cases reportedly increased by 65% over the past few days.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: “Imagine London In Full Lockdown”
Rabobank: “Imagine London In Full Lockdown”
Imagine London in full lockdown. Hard? Well, Chinese authorities just decided to issue a Wuhan travel ban, locking down a city with more inhabitants than London. Stopping the spread of the new SARS-like corona virus is the aim, as more and more cases of contagion have been reported, for which the majority are pointing at Wuhan being the place of origination. The WHO delayed its decision on whether to brand the situation as an a public health emergency of international concern and is expected to report on its deliberations today. Meanwhile, China reported 8 new deaths from the Corona virus, bringing the worldwide tally to 17.
Whilst broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets seemed slightly less intense than on Tuesday, Asian stocks took a significant beating overnight, with the Chinese CSI index dropping more than 3% as losses mounted during the trading session. Concerns that travel bans will be rolled out more widely are giving investors jitters, even though these bans are intended to prevent the situation from spiralling out of control.
Meanwhile, the stepping-down of Five Star movement leader Luigi di Maio, on which the market had been speculating already earlier this week, had relatively little impact on European bonds, with Italy’s spread volatile but even tightening slightly after the widening move yesterday. Italian minister Robert Gualtieri said di Maio’s resignation as leader would not affect his position as foreign affairs minister and would not affect the stability of the government. Apparently this was sufficient for market participants, who perhaps see this as an opportunity for the PD’s coalition partner to seek a new leader who can take on the potential threats from the rising popularity of Matteo Salvini’s League, who are expected to do well in the regional elections on Sunday.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: “World War 3? The US Has Crossed A Red Line… But It’s Not The One They Think”
Rabobank: “World War 3? The US Has Crossed A Red Line… But It’s Not The One They Think”
“World War Three!” is trending on social media the day I return to work after two weeks off deliberately not reading any news for once: ironic given my reputation for being bearish about geopolitics. Markets, of course, have failed to react much: Middle-East bourses closed down 2-4% on Sunday, which is not exactly end of the world stuff; WTI futures are up around 3%, again not a real panic; while US 10-year yields were down from 1.94% intraday Thursday to 1.79% as of the Friday close – but the weak US ISM survey (47.2 headline; 46.8 new orders; 45.1 employment) could be to blame for that alone.
You know what? For once the markets are arguably right, albeit for all the wrong reasons. Markets think nothing that happens in the Middle East matters because central banks will have their backs regardless. That is patent nonsense, even if Ben Bernanke is muttering about not ruling out negative rates and further purchases of “private securities” during the next down-turn. If Iran launched a devastating missile attack on Saudi and UAE oil facilities, and means it this time; or on Tel Aviv and the nuclear reactor at Dimona; if it unleashed a wave of global terrorist attacks and assassinations from sleeper agents – none of those things are made better by a lower cost of borrowing. They aren’t even helped by (not) helicopter money, as Bernanke alludes to. Central banks can and would be funding a lot more defence spending immediately on a helicopter money basis in those scenarios, but much of the world economy would take a hit regardless – most so if the oil complex is hit. Sorry Central banks, but in those kind of scenarios–as Ayatollah Khamenei tweeted to US President Trump right before he then killed Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council head Qassem Suleimani–“You can’t do anything.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: “Global Central-Bankery Continues To Go Where No-One Has Gone Before”
Rabobank: “Global Central-Bankery Continues To Go Where No-One Has Gone Before”
Stocks at new recorder record highs; bonds up (yields down); CNY up; broad USD DXY up; China issuing USD6bn of sovereign debt at a narrow spread over USTs….it’s all up, up, and away. And why not? Trump tells us the US is “in the final throes” of a phase one trade deal with China. Usually that language is used to imply something is dying, but hey ho, decimate is used to mean annihilation rather than killing one in ten of the enemy, and quantum leap is used to imply something big when it actually means something amazingly small. Suffice to say markets loved it. So much so in fact that it is a song we should keep singing over and over, like another ‘final’- “The Final Countdown”.
Three decades after Europe’s pop-metal kitsch classic first hit the charts, they are still out there playing it, and whenever anyone hears the keyboard intro “Deedle deedle….deedle dee”, everyone knows the song and joins in enthusiastically: how can you not? As such, I suggest that from now on, every time the White House talks about the impending phase one trade deal coming soon, to save time they just play the track for the press. Or just the keyboard intro. And rallying markets can continue to trade off the deep wisdom of the lyrics:
“We’re leaving together; But still it’s farewell; And maybe we’ll come back; To earth, who can tell?
I guess there is no one to blame; We’re leaving ground (leaving ground); Will things ever be the same again?
It’s the final countdown; The final countdown”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Powell Doesn’t Change His Tune… And Rabobank Sees Fed Cutting To Zero
Powell Doesn’t Change His Tune… And Rabobank Sees Fed Cutting To Zero
- The tone of Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks in Zurich was similar to that of his speech in Jackson Hole. Powell repeated the statement that the Fed will ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,’ which indicates that he is leaning toward a September rate cut.
- Earlier today, the Employment Report for August showed that the weakness in the manufacturing sector and business investment has spread to employment growth. This strengthens the case for an insurance cut in September, although Powell said that the labor market remained in quite a strong position.
- In our view the feedback loop between trade policy and monetary policy is likely to lead to another insurance cut, probably in October. Meanwhile, the inverted yield curve points to a recession in 2020 that will force the Fed to cut rates all the way to zero before the end of 2020.
Powell doesn’t change his tune
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not bring a prepared speech to the SNB event at the University of Zurich today, instead he took part in a moderated Q&A with SNB President Thomas Jordan on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Powell said that the US economy is still in a good place and the most likely outlook remains favorable. However, there are the significant risks to the outlook: global economic growth, uncertainty about trade policy and persistently low inflation. He said that ‘As we move forward, we’re going to continue to watch all of these factors, and all the geopolitical things that are happening, and we’re going to continue to act as appropriate to sustain this expansion.’
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Focus Is Increasingly On How Similar Conditions Are To The Lead Up To WW2: Rabobank
Focus Is Increasingly On How Similar Conditions Are To The Lead Up To WW2: Rabobank
Back with a bang
As mentioned on Friday, welcome to both La Grande rentrée and weltschmerz: and combining the two, this week we are ‘back with a bang’. That seems appropriate given yesterday marked 80 years since the start of WW2, which one would have thought would have received far more media coverage than it did: instead, far more focus was on how similar some conditions are to the lead up to WW2.
For just one market example, yesterday saw new US and Chinese tariffs kick in, taking a further step down the trade war path – if that is what one still insists on calling it. I underline that more holistic view of the US-China standoff as the Wall Street Journal reports that “SEC Revives Fight Over Inability to Inspect Chinese Auditors of Alibaba, Baidu”. The SEC could yet “impose more oversight on US-listed companies that rely upon those [Chinese] auditors. The measures could include forcing the firms to disclose more about their business or accounting and restricting their ability to sell new shares.” Given the Chinese firms are unlikely to comply, that is a potential step towards an eventual US delisting; and don’t forget there is also a push in the US Congress to stop US capital flows into China via bill S. 1731, which will get a further bipartisan tailwind when Congress returns on 4 September. In short, this is a whole other new front in the US-China struggle (capital flows, following tech limits and tariffs), not a ‘trade war’.
Markets May Focus on Dissenters in FOMC Minutes: Rabobank’s Foley
Let’s see just how weak CNY fixing, and CNY itself, are today. Indeed, after the Chinese manufacturing PMI stayed well below 50 over the weekend, will we take out the low of 7.1926 on the back of this news-flow? If not today, then soon, surely. And then where?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Elites “Going Rogue” Suggests The Global Neoliberal Architecture Is Collapsing
Elites “Going Rogue” Suggests The Global Neoliberal Architecture Is Collapsing
Listen carefully. That is the sound of going rogue – and bond yields further through the floor.
Yesterday UK PM Boris Johnson announced he is going to prorogue–or close–Parliament, meaning that when MPs come back to sit next week they will only do so briefly, and will then not return until 14 October, when there will be a new Queen’s Speech to launch BoJo’s slate of legislation as the new PM. So far, so technical. Yet what this effectively means is that there will be a very narrow window next week, and then a slightly larger one in the final two weeks of October, for Parliament to act to prevent Hard Brexit on Halloween.
This is explosive and unprecedented stuff, politically. The British constitution is largely unwritten and so allows wiggle room, and the government insists they have checked the legality of all they are proposing; nonetheless, as the press and opposition note, it smells awful. This is clearly a case of Erskine May (the ‘parliamentary bible’ that looks and sounds like it belongs in a Harry Potter tale) turning into Erskine Maybe or Erskine Might.
Indeed, BoJo is being accused of a “coup”, a “constitutional outrage”, an “abomination”, and of being a “tinpot dictator”, though this being the UK, perhaps that should be “teapot”; but there is not just tea but a genuinely revolutionary atmosphere brewing. Bob Kerslake, former head of the civil service, is quoted in the Guardian as stating:
“We are reaching the point where the civil service must consider putting its stewardship of the country ahead of service to the government of the day.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: “The US Will Simply Not Allow A New Reserve Currency Without A Fight”
Rabobank: “The US Will Simply Not Allow A New Reserve Currency Without A Fight”
“Peace for our time”
Despite the fact that the German IFO survey was ‘I-ful’, with the official word being that the outlook is “increasingly dire”, and that US core durable goods were -0.4% vs. flat expected, both of which confirm that the real economy is perhaps in real trouble, markets seemed to sigh with relief yesterday. The reason? We have the promise of “peace for our time”. After all, according to the press, US President Trump held out an olive branch to China on trade; and to Iran; and was there perhaps the suggestion of another brunch being offered from Boris Johnson to the EU?
Let’s focus on the US issue first. Nothing we saw or heard yesterday–nothing at all–changes any of the dynamic that we have seen for a long time now. Trump praised Chairman Xi to the skies, and repeated that China wants to make a deal very badly, so much so that they had already called to kick-start talks. Meanwhile, China stated it knew nothing about any such call, and the editor of the Global Times tweeted “Based on what I know, Chinese and US top negotiators didn’t hold phone talks in recent days. The two sides have been keeping contact at technical level, it doesn’t have significance that President Trump suggested. China didn’t change its position. China won’t cave to US pressure.” So very little chance of trade peace for our time. Nonetheless, as usual, the equity market fell for this while the smarter bond market largely didn’t – and neither did CNH.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Strait Outta Hormuz
Strait Outta Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz these days seems to be what the streets of Compton used to be in the 90s. Yesterday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it has seized a “foreign vessel” for smuggling fuel. And this morning, news came in that the US has shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, after it allegedly threatened a US warship. About a fifth of global daily oil consumption (c. 21 million barrels) passes through the Strait each day. Moreover, tensions between the US and Iran are more likely to increase than not (don’t forget Iran also shot down a US drone last month). So don’t expect a smooth ride for oil prices this summer.
From the Strait of Hormuz, to back to Europe. According to Bloomberg sources, ECB staff is looking into potentially reforming its inflation target from “below, but close to 2%” to perhaps a policy band around 2%. Such a band would explicitly make the inflation target symmetric (something President Draghi favours), which means that the ECB can better signal willingness to overshoot the target for a short while. As such, it can reinforce inflation expectations if it is seen as a signal of more (or a prolonged period of) loose monetary policy. However, our ECB watcher Bas van Geffen cautions that the risk of such a symmetric band is that the market could also interpret the lower bound as ‘good enough’, especially if inflation keeps undershooting the ECB’s aim. Suppose the band is 0.5%. This implies the ECB might target an inflation rate of 2.5%, but it also implies that an inflation rate of 1.5% is within the ECB’s target band. Hooray, the ECB has achieved its inflation target by simply changing the definition of the target. What does that mean for its credibility? To avoid that situation, a symmetric band should probably be accompanied by more stimulus to rekindle inflation expectations.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: “The Biggest Explosions Are Still To Come”
Rabobank: “The Biggest Explosions Are Still To Come”
Civil War, Infinity War, or Endgame?
US consumers are feeling more confident according to yesterday’s data, and they also think things can only get better.
Meanwhile, Europe is patting itself on the back over the far right not dominating in the EU elections, even if they did in the UK and Italy, with consequences yet to be seen. Nonetheless, things are going so well on an underlying basis–as the struggle over who will get all the top EU jobs begins–that the Iron German Chancellor Merkel has decided to knife her own named successor in the back and effectively un-retire for the foreseeable future. What confidence in the future that displays. (And in her political judgement in the original pick.) Meanwhile, over in Asia things are looking ugly. The leading indicator that is Korean exports continues to tumble, and now Bloomberg’s leading indicator suggests the Chinese economy will see a further marked deceleration in May data. Like bird-flu, and now ASF, or pig-flu, what starts in Asia doesn’t stay in Asia for long.
Markets seem to get that message – bonds are screaming that a recession is just around the corner – something our Fed watcher Philip Marey has been calling for the US for some time now. The US Treasury curve is now at its most inverted 3-month to 10-year since 2007, not a happy comparison, while the actual 10-year itself is at 2.25% at the time of writing. Recall we started May at over 2.55%, and in January were close to closing over 2.80%. Over in Germany the 10-year Bund is trading at -16bp, which should mean the ECB’s Draghi leaves red-faced – though of course he will walk out declaring “Mission accomplished.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabo: The World Is Banking On China (But Japan Points To Our Future)
Rabo: The World Is Banking On China (But Japan Points To Our Future)
Market comments
There is a saying in the market that if you want to see the future of monetary policy, you just have to look at Japan. Well, as expected, BoJ Governor Kuroda and his team decided to keep policy unchanged, despite a fresh downward adjustment of its economic assessment. Two out of the nine board members dissented, with one of them being very outspoken in favour of more easing, thus underlining the dovish slant. But, like in Europe, headwinds are mostly blowing from the external environment, leading to weaker exports and industrial output – according to the Bank. In essence, the Japanese economy is feeling the hurt from slower global growth as a result of Brexit, protectionism and the slowdown in China.
And apparently Japanese monetary policy makers still have some hope the economy can recover from this downdraft pretty quickly or that any ongoing weakness would be offset by a better domestic economy. But when many central banks are thinking like that, you can be sure it won’t add up! Or are we all banking on the Chinese now? Well, at least Mr. Draghi and Mr. Kuroda seem to be on the same page, with Kuroda saying this morning that “China’s stimulus is pretty big and will have an impact”.
Even more worrisome is that refraining from action whilst keeping up a brave face perhaps only highlights that the central bank has ran out of options. Despite being arguably the most aggressive central bank in terms of monetary easing since 2008, underlying inflation’s basically gone nowhere (inflation ex-food and energy being at a paltry 0.4% y/y). And while there is an increasing chorus –recently joined by finance minister Taro Aso– to lower or make more flexible the BoJ’s 2% inflation target, Mr. Kuroda confirmed this morning that this is not (yet) the way to go.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: “We Can’t Even Imagine What The Chinese Response Will Be To The Green New Deal”
Rabobank: “We Can’t Even Imagine What The Chinese Response Will Be To The Green New Deal”
The bent out of shape of things to come
If regular readers have not picked up on our view on US-China relations, it is that although just enough good will can be scraped together to kick the can down the road for 90 days, ultimately there is no US-China trade deal that can be done: those tariffs are going up from 10% to 25%. Fundamentally, this isn’t about trade from either side. It’s about geopolitical power. The US knows it. China knows it. Some market analysts know it, though far fewer will dare to say it publicly. But the markets as a whole certainly don’t want to know it – yet. That might be changing though.
We have just seen White House Economic Advisor –and likely one of those guys who does still think this is all about trade– Larry Kudlow say that there is “still a pretty sizable distance” between the US and China as we tick towards the midnight 1 March deadline. Cue market wobbles. The Wall Street Journal today has a story that US firms are phoning President Trump directly to lobby for a deal to get done. Presumably that is not a sign that things are going well. You don’t lobby when the ship of state is moving in the direction you like. And in the same article it is detailed that China seems to be confident that tariffs will come down by 2 March regardless of them not making any concessions. Pride cometh before the fall, as they say. Also perhaps a sign of concern, rather than imminent victory, a pro-trade lobbying group is saying that 934,000 jobs will be lost if the US does proceed with 25% tariffs.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
