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Economic and Monetary Outlook For 2021

ECONOMIC AND MONETARY OUTLOOK FOR 2021 The most important event in the new year is likely to be the Fed losing control of its iron grip on markets. The dollar’s declining trend is already well established against other currencies and commodities, leading to this outcome. Events in 2021 will be the consequence of a developing […]

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Inflation Expectations Solidly On The Rise

Inflation Expectations Solidly On The Rise Expectations Can Drive Inflation Inflation expectations appear to be solidly on the rise and that spells big problems for the financial system. For years the central banks across the world have claimed deflation has driven or allowed their QE policies to remain. This is central to their ability to […]

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Update on the Fed’s QE

Update on the Fed’s QE No Wonder the Cry Babies on Wall Street are clamoring for more. Five SPVs, already on ice, will expire on December 31. The Fed released details today of its corporate-bond purchases in November ($215 minuscule millions) and corporate-bond ETF purchases in November (zilch). Last time it bought any ETFs had […]

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Are we in a ‘New Normal’?

Are we in a ‘New Normal’? The past two years have been especially brutal to so-called equity ‘bears’. Against all odds, and despite all the shocks, global capital markets—if not the real economy they are supposed to represent—have continued to climb to new heights. After the onset of the coronavirus catastrophe, the relentless rise of […]

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Dalio- The United States Is At A Tipping Point That Could Lead To Revolution Or Civil War

Dalio: The United States Is At A Tipping Point That Could Lead To Revolution Or Civil War It was almost exactly ten years ago that we first predicted that the Fed’s “moronic” QE which has sparked an unprecedented class, income and wealth divide, “positions US society one step closer to civil war if not worse.” […]

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What the Great Reset Architects Don’t Want You To Understand About Economics

What the Great Reset Architects Don’t Want You To Understand About Economics It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Vice President of the World Bank Carmen Reinhardt recently warned on October 15 that a new financial disaster looms ominously over the horizon with a vast sovereign default and a corporate debt default. Just in the past […]

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Fed Assets Eke Out New Record for First Time Since June 10. But Repos, Dollar Liquidity Swaps, SPVs Mothballed

Fed Assets Eke Out New Record for First Time Since June 10. But Repos, Dollar Liquidity Swaps, SPVs Mothballed Only Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are still active. The Fed has now reduced to zero or to near-zero or essentially mothballed and thrown the towel in on three of its five QE and bailout […]

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Weekly Commentary: Summer of 2020

Weekly Commentary: Summer of 2020 QE fundamentally changed finance. What commenced at the Federal Reserve with a post-mortgage finance Bubble, $1 TN Treasury buying operation morphed into open-ended purchases of Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds and even corporate ETFs holding high-yield “junk” bonds. Markets assume it’s only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve adds […]

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Blain’s Morning Porridge – 21st August 2020 – John Law’s MMT revisited

  Blain’s Morning Porridge – 21st August 2020 – John Law’s MMT revisited “Earlier today apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she had heard that there was a hurricane on the way. Well if you are watching, don’t worry, there isn’t.” It’s blowing a full hooley out there this morning, which is very bad news […]

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The Fed is Determined to Prove the QTM Right

The Fed is Determined to Prove the QTM Right Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation was always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” But Friedman didn’t live through the QE years here in the U.S. and blatantly ignored the twenty plus years of Japanese deflation despite QE and insane levels of money printing during the latter years […]

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Curing COVID-19 Won’t Cure the Economy

Curing COVID-19 Won’t Cure the Economy We have been making the case for weeks that we aren’t heading for a quick recovery. We’ve reported on the number of people of small business owners who don’t think they’ll survive, the increasing number of over-leveraged zombie companies, and the tsunami of defaults and bankruptcies on the horizon. Yes, we have seen […]

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After the Fed Punts, the ECB Throws Another Hail Mary

After the Fed Punts, the ECB Throws Another Hail Mary Last week FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and company did, essentially nothing, at their June meeting. They held interest rates at 0.25%, did not expand QE nor did they indicate any changes. This wasn’t what the market wanted, as the bond were pushing the Fed to […]

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US Money Supply – The Pandemic Moonshot

US Money Supply – The Pandemic Moonshot Printing Until the Cows Come Home… It started out with Jay Powell planting a happy little money tree in 2019 to keep the repo market from suffering a terminal seizure. This essentially led to a restoration of the status quo ante “QT” (the mythical beast known as “quantitative […]

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This Time, the Fed Can’t Avoid Inflation, Says Expert

This Time, the Fed Can’t Avoid Inflation, Says Expert This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Is the latest QE program finally going to spike prices, gold cannot be printed by central banks, and virus intensifies the flow of gold to U.S. […]

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Someday They Are Going To Write Books About This!

Someday They Are Going To Write Books About This! What is occurring today is absolutely mind-boggling. Someday they are going to write books about this! While there have been some messed up financial conundrums over the years none rival the current situation now before us. The dilemma before us is a fast-moving enigma wrapped in a gossamer […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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