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Tag Archives: Michael Every
Rabobank: “There Will Be Attempts To Go Back To Normal After This Crisis, But It Will Be Impossible”
Rabobank: “There Will Be Attempts To Go Back To Normal After This Crisis, But It Will Be Impossible” The Grand National-ists The weekend’s world-famous UK horse race, the Grand National, was won by Potters Corner, trained in Wales and ridden by Jack Tudor, at 18-1. That’s a little unusual – but not as much as the […]
Rabobank: Over 100 Million Could Be In Lockdown In India
Rabobank: Over 100 Million Could Be In Lockdown In India Police State The headlines continue to shock. Firstly, the number of coronavirus cases surged past 300,000 on Sunday with more than 13,000 deaths now reported worldwide. Secondly, predictions about the fall out on the global economic outlook have rapidly gone from bad to worse over the […]
Rabobank: What Level Of Interest Rates Will Incentivize You To Risk The Death Of Yourself And Your Family
Rabobank: What Level Of Interest Rates Will Incentivize You To Risk The Death Of Yourself And Your Family “Tonight the super trouper lights are gonna find meShining like the sun (sup-p-per troup-p-per)Smiling, having fun (sup-p-per troup-p-per)Feeling like a number one…” So sang markets yesterday in excitement as we enter what I am dubbing “Super Trouper […]
Rabobank: Markets Need To Start Pricing For One Of Two Things – One Bad, The Other Terrible
Rabobank: Markets Need To Start Pricing For One Of Two Things – One Bad, The Other Terrible It is that rarest of occasions. Not a global pandemic, because: 1) we still aren’t in one yet, officially; and 2) we have had that pandemic declaration made in the relatively recent past (2009-10). Rather, we are being […]
Rabobank: Several Things Cratered Yesterday
Rabobank: Several Things Cratered Yesterday Several things cratered yesterday. The first was global stocks. The S&P dropped 3.4%, which once upon a time was just a normal bad day in the office, but in our new normal of central banks tacitly and US presidents openly targeting stock prices as the key driver of the global ‘economy’, […]
Rabobank: Our Coronavirus Base Case Is Rapidly Shifting From “Bad” To “Ugly”
Rabobank: Our Coronavirus Base Case Is Rapidly Shifting From “Bad” To “Ugly” Regular readers will know that our four projected COVID-19 scenarios were “Bad, Worse, Ugly, and Unthinkable”. Current news today suggests risks that the base case is rapidly shifting from “Bad”, meaning only China is impacted, to “Ugly”, where both emerging Asia and developed economies see […]
The Four Coronavirus Scenarios: The Bad; The Worse; The Ugly; And The Unthinkable
The Four Coronavirus Scenarios: The Bad; The Worse; The Ugly; And The Unthinkable Summary The Covid-19 coronavirus could be more disruptive than markets are currently pricing in. Not in the least because the ‘true’ number of infected people remains uncertain, as the recent surge in cases exemplifies We outline four scenarios in which the virus […]
Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful
Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful As has been the case since Monday’s sell-off, there is an attempt to try to look on the bright side of the virus headlines. Chinese officials are spreading the word globally that things are under control and that other countries should not be closing their borders to […]
Rabobank: “What If We Are On The Brink Of An Exponential Increase In Coronavirus Cases?”
Rabobank: “What If We Are On The Brink Of An Exponential Increase In Coronavirus Cases?” The beginning of 2020 starts to look alarmingly similar to 2018. Back then the US stocks extended their impressive 2017 gains in the first few weeks of trading only to plunge at the end of January and sustain heavy losses […]
Rabobank: “Imagine London In Full Lockdown”
Rabobank: “Imagine London In Full Lockdown” Imagine London in full lockdown. Hard? Well, Chinese authorities just decided to issue a Wuhan travel ban, locking down a city with more inhabitants than London. Stopping the spread of the new SARS-like corona virus is the aim, as more and more cases of contagion have been reported, for which […]
Rabobank: “World War 3? The US Has Crossed A Red Line… But It’s Not The One They Think”
Rabobank: “World War 3? The US Has Crossed A Red Line… But It’s Not The One They Think” “World War Three!” is trending on social media the day I return to work after two weeks off deliberately not reading any news for once: ironic given my reputation for being bearish about geopolitics. Markets, of course, have failed to […]
Rabobank: “The Global Institutional Architecture Is Collapsing”
Rabobank: “The Global Institutional Architecture Is Collapsing” It’s December, and the start of the season of good will to all and peace on earth. Not much of that about, of course. In the UK, the election has been interrupted by the terrorist attack at London Bridge, which both sides are naturally playing politics with in […]
Rabobank: “Global Central-Bankery Continues To Go Where No-One Has Gone Before”
Rabobank: “Global Central-Bankery Continues To Go Where No-One Has Gone Before” Stocks at new recorder record highs; bonds up (yields down); CNY up; broad USD DXY up; China issuing USD6bn of sovereign debt at a narrow spread over USTs….it’s all up, up, and away. And why not? Trump tells us the US is “in the […]
We Now Have Mass Public Unrest In France, Spain, Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Hong Kong, Venezuela, Chile, Ecuador And Bolivia
We Now Have Mass Public Unrest In France, Spain, Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Hong Kong, Venezuela, Chile, Ecuador And Bolivia Ages and Ages of Rage Monday morning and we here we go again for another “dramatic week”. There are going to be monthly PMIs to look at in particular: will we see any further deterioration, or will […]
Focus Is Increasingly On How Similar Conditions Are To The Lead Up To WW2: Rabobank
Focus Is Increasingly On How Similar Conditions Are To The Lead Up To WW2: Rabobank Back with a bang As mentioned on Friday, welcome to both La Grande rentrée and weltschmerz: and combining the two, this week we are ‘back with a bang’. That seems appropriate given yesterday marked 80 years since the start of WW2, which one […]
