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Kiev, Moscow, Bonds and Haircuts
Kiev, Moscow, Bonds and Haircuts
When money managers talk outside their narrow field, nonsense is guaranteed to ensue. No better example than this Bloomberg piece on Ukraine’s ‘debt restructuring’ plans, which are as much a political tool as they are anything else at all. Ukraine’s American Finance Minister has announced a broad restructuring plan with a wide range of severe haircuts for creditors, and she – well, obviously – wishes to include Russia in the group of creditors who are about to get their heads shaved.
And despite all obvious angles to the issue that are not purely economical, Bloomberg presents a whole array of finance professionals who are free to spout their entirely irrelevant opinions on the topic. If you didn’t know any better, you’d be inclined to think that perhaps Russia is indeed just another creditor to Kiev.
Putin Plays Wildcard as Ukraine Bond Restructuring Talks Begin
As Ukraine begins bond-restructuring talks, it finds itself face-to-face with a familiar foe: Russia. President Vladimir Putin bought $3 billion of Ukrainian bonds in late 2013. The cash was meant to support an ally, then-President Yanukovych.
That is, for starters, a far too narrow way of putting it. Russia simply wanted to make sure Ukraine would remain a stable nation, both politically and economically, because A) it didn’t want a failed state on its borders and B) it wanted to ensure a smooth transfer of its gas sales to Europe through the Ukraine pipeline systems. Whether that would be achieved through Yanukovych or someone else was a secondary issue. Putin was never a big fan of the former president, but at least he kept the gas flowing.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Putin Says Attempts To Tip Nuclear Balance Don’t Scare Russia, Moscow Will Uncover “Schemes”
Putin Says Attempts To Tip Nuclear Balance Don’t Scare Russia, Moscow Will Uncover “Schemes”
Russia is once again ratcheting up the rhetoric, this time to a fever pitch. Just a day after Putin’s Security Council posted a remarkably accurate and amusingly concise assessment of US foreign policy aims on its website, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry as well as President Putin himself are out with strong condemnations of both the NATO presence in Eastern Europe as well as US plans to arm Kiev.
The comments come on the heels of a House vote which showed overwhelming support for the provision of lethal aid to Kiev and just a day after the first batch of American humvees received a warm welcome from President Petro Poroshenko. As a reminder, here’s what both sides had to say about Congress’s willingness to maybe start an all out proxy war in the Baltics:
The prepackaged spin is already ready: “sending weapons to the Kiev government would not mean involvement in a new war for America”, claimed the abovementioned Eliot Engel who sponsored the document. “The people of Ukraine are not looking for American troops,” Engel said. “They are just looking for the weapons.”So the only question is how Russia will responds to this escalation: according to RT,“Washington’s decision to supply Ukraine with ammunition and weapons would “explode the whole situation” in eastern Ukraine and Russia would be forced to respond “appropriately,” Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said at the end of February.
While it’s not immediately clear what constitutes an “appropriate” response, and while the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Alexander Lukashevich contends that an outright military confrontation between the West and Russia “isn’t something anyone wants,” that’s where the ambiguity and niceties end. Here’s more via Bloomberg:
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Ukraine Playing Hardball With Gazprom In New Gas Deal
Ukraine Playing Hardball With Gazprom In New Gas Deal
Ukraine plans to suspend its gas purchases from Russia on April 1, the day after the current contract expires, in an effort to strengthen Kiev’s bargaining position as the two countries negotiate a new deal that could lower the price of the fuel.
Ukraine has been shifting its reliance on gas from Russia to Europe, in large part because of growing tensions between the two countries that have previously led to interruptions in the flow of gas through a Ukrainian pipeline that also serves Western Europe.
Europe has been buying about half of its gas from Russia, and about 30 percent of its flows through Ukraine. Moscow has interrupted that flow three times in the past decade because of pricing disputes with Ukraine. Both Europe and Ukraine hope to end most or all Russian gas shipments by shifting to alternate sources of energy.
Related: Natural Gas Prices To Crash Unless Rig Count Falls Fast
Ukraine believes gas it buys under the current contract with Russia’s state-owned Gazprom is too expensive and has been negotiating with Russia for a lower price for the fuel as well as higher transit fees for Russian gas to European customers.
The expiration of the current contract also coincides with the end of winter, when Ukraine needs to buy less gas for heating.
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ISA MUNAYEV’S WAR THE FINAL DAYS OF A CHECHEN COMMANDER FIGHTING IN UKRAINE
ISA MUNAYEV’S WAR
THE FINAL DAYS OF A CHECHEN COMMANDER FIGHTING IN UKRAINE
IN SEPTEMBER OF 2014, I found myself standing on a narrow, potholed street in Kiev, east of the Dnieper River, in an area known as the Left Bank. I didn’t even know, at that point, whom I was meeting. I knew only that Khalid, my contact in Turkey with the Islamic State, had told me his “brothers” were in Ukraine, and I could trust them.
When one of them called me, I was given the address of a small street in the Ukrainian capital where I should go, and no other information. When I arrived, I found myself in a maze of Soviet apartment blocks. I immediately noticed two well-built men walking by; they were bearded, with black sunglasses and black leather jackets. When I looked closely, I could see sticking out of their jackets the barrels of small machine guns.
“Kandahar, Kandahar,” one of them said into his radio, after approaching me.
Could we go in? “No,” was the answer. The “commander” was still busy.
The armed men guided me past rows of Soviet-era apartment buildings, and then we waited in a wide, open square among the tall, concrete buildings. After half an hour of waiting, we wove through the housing complex until we approached a 10-story building, then took the elevator up to a mid-level floor and entered a small apartment. The single room was furnished with a bed, a kitchen table and two chairs.
Sitting inside the small apartment was Isa Munayev. I recognized him immediately, because he was one of the few Chechens serving in Ukraine who was photographed frequently without a mask. He was upset, and shouting into the phone: “We came to die for you, and you don’t even want to do what you promised.”
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Ukraine Enters The Endgame
Ukraine Enters The Endgame
Back in March 2014 we forecast that it in the aftermath of the US State Department-sponsored military coup in Kiev, it was only a matter of time before Ukraine (all of its sovereign gold having since “vaporized“) succumbed to full blown hyperinflation and economic implosion. Less than a year later, precisely this outcome has finally played out, and as a result, the entire nation has finally entered its economic endgame, one which has two conclusion: either it joins Greece in becoming a ward of Europe (of which it is not an official member) and the IMF (thank you Joe Q Public taxpayer), or it quietly fades away into insolvent “failed state” status.
This is in a nutshell the assessment by Goldman Sachs, presented below, which really doesn’t say much we didn’t cover earlier in “Ukraine Enters Hyperinflation: Currency Trading Halted, “Soon We Will Walk Around With Suitcases For Cash“, but which does lays out the (very unpleasant) alternatives for yet another nation brought to ruin through American neo-colonial expansion, in what may well be a record short period of time. Of these, the primary ones focus on yet another IMF bailout which the agency may find some resistance to as a result of the near-total collapse of Greece at the same time. And not only that but Goldman’s “base case of IMF fund disbursement in mid-March may not come quickly enough to stabilize the Hryvnia.” Oops.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
How Far Is It From Kiev To Athens?
How Far Is It From Kiev To Athens?
Riddle me this, Batman. I don’t think I get it, and I definitely don’t get why nobody is asking any questions. The IMF and EU make a lot of noise – through the Eurogroup – about all the conditions Greece has to address to get even a mild extension of support, while the same IMF and EU keep on handing out cash to Ukraine without as much as a whisper – at least publicly.
The Kiev government, which has been ceaselessly and ruthlessly attacking its own people, is now portrayed as needing – monetary and military – western help in order to be able to ‘defend’ itself. From the people it’s been attacking, presumably. And hardly a soul in the west asks what that is all about.
Why did Kiev kill 5000 of its own citizens? Because there are people in East Ukraine who had – and still have – the guts to say they don’t want to be ruled by a regime willing to murder them for saying they don’t want to be ruled by it. And just in case there’s any confusion left about this, yes, that is the regime we are actively supporting, in undoubtedly many more ways than are made public. All the doubts about the western narrative are swept aside with one move: blame Putin.
Of the two countries, Greece, despite its humanitarian issues, is by far the luckiest one. Ukraine is quite a few steps further down the hill. One can be forgiven for contemplating that the west, aided by President Poroshenko and the Yats regime in Kiev, is dead set on obliterating the entire nation.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Interventionism Kills: Post-Coup Ukraine One Year Later
Interventionism Kills: Post-Coup Ukraine One Year Later
It was one year ago last weekend that a violent coup overthrew the legally elected government of Ukraine. That coup was not only supported by US and EU governments — much of it was actually planned by them. Looking back at the events that led to the overthrow it is clear that without foreign intervention Ukraine would not be in its current, seemingly hopeless situation.
By the end of 2013, Ukraine’s economy was in ruins. The government was desperate for an economic bailout and then-president Yanukovych first looked west to the US and EU before deciding to accept an offer of help from Russia. Residents of south and east Ukraine, who largely speak Russian and trade extensively with Russia were pleased with the decision. West Ukrainians who identify with Poland and Europe began to protest. Ukraine is a deeply divided country and the president came from the eastern region.
At this point the conflict was just another chapter in Ukraine’s difficult post-Soviet history. There was bound to be some discontent over the decision, but if there had been no foreign intervention in support of the protests you would likely not be reading this column today. The problem may well have solved itself in due time rather than escalated into a full-out civil war. But the interventionists in the US and EU won out again, and their interventionist project has been a disaster.
The protests at the end of 2013 grew more dramatic and violent and soon a steady stream of US and EU politicians were openly participating, as protesters called for the overthrow of the Ukrainian government. Senator John McCain made several visits to Kiev and even addressed the crowd to encourage them.
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As IMF Extends $17.5 Billion Credit To Kiev, Gazprom Demands Debt Repayment
As IMF Extends $17.5 Billion Credit To Kiev, Gazprom Demands Debt Repayment
No sooner had the International Monetary Fund (IMF) extended $17.5 billion over four years in new credit to Ukraine, Russia’s private gas giant Gazprom was claiming $2.4 billion of it to settle Kiev’s gas debt.
That’s not exactly what the IMF had in mind. The international lender’s mission chief for Ukraine, Nikolay Gueorguiev, issued a statement on Feb. 13 saying the credit was meant to address “immediate macroeconomic stabilization as well as broad and deep structural reforms to provide the basis for strong and sustainable economic growth over the medium term.”
At the same time, Gazprom sent a letter to its Ukrainian counterpart, state-owned Naftogaz, seeking a payment of more than $2.4 billion, to cover $2.2 billion in debt, plus a penalty fee of about $200 million. The debt, which Kiev doesn’t acknowledge, will be the subject of hearings at the Stockholm Arbitration Institute in early 2016.
Discussing Gazprom’s demand on the Russian television station LifeNew, Kremlin Energy Minister Alexander Novak dismissed Ukraine’s stand on the status of the debt, saying, “Gazprom has every right to claim the funds” because the gas deliveries to Naftogaz are listed on invoices according to an active contract between the two gas companies.
So far, Naftogaz has been paying the $2 billion debt in installments. Now that Ukraine has received the IMF loan, Gazprom wants the entire debt paid now.
Ever since the autumn of 2013, when many Ukrainians were demanding closer ties with the European Union at the expense of Russia, its gross domestic product (GDP) has shrunk by about 7 percent, the IMF says. In February 2014, faced with a popular uprising, the country’s president, Viktor Yanukovich, fled to Russia, which responded by annexing Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
‘Get NATO, foreign countries out of Ukraine to end civil war’ – Ron Paul
‘Get NATO, foreign countries out of Ukraine to end civil war’ – Ron Paul
The best thing for Ukraine is to force NATO, the US, and regional players out of the country, former US congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul said. Without foreign meddling in the civil war, Kiev will focus on the nation’s economic collapse.
READ MORE: Ron Paul: Western powers fomenting Ukrainian conflict, US should ‘stay out’
“Get the foreigners out of there [Ukraine], get the Europeans out, the US out, get NATO out, and get the Russians out,” Paul said at the International Students for Liberty Conference in Washington on Friday.“There will be less of a civil war going on there because they will have to worry about their debt. This is an economic matter too. You have to realize that the country is totally bankrupt.”
“I’m not pro-Putin, I’m not pro-Russia, but I’m pro-facts,” Paul stressed when defending his stance.“Crimea is not exactly a foreign country, according to the Russians. But I’m neutral on that,” the former presidential candidate stated.
Paul – a 79-year-old retired doctor who spent nearly three decades in the US Congress representing the state of Texas – reiterated his previous statements, noting that what happened in Ukraine last year was a“coup” that was planned by “NATO, EU” and western Ukrainians. “One thing for sure that we do know, is we [US] had the conversations between our State Department and our ambassador before the coup – who will we put in place. And they planned part of the coup.”
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Ukraine fighting continues as ceasefire looms
Ukraine fighting continues as ceasefire looms
Fierce fighting breaks out in country’s east amid claims by the United States that Russia is deploying heavy arms.
Fierce fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian rebels has ensued just hours before a February 15 ceasefire, signed by European leaders, takes effect.
Friday’s fighting in eastern Ukraine cast doubts on the ceasefire and came as the United States accused Russia of deploying heavy arms to eastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Kiev warned that shelling of civilians in the rebel-held areas in the east had intensified.
Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, said continuing bombardment of civilians by pro-Russian separatist rebels was already undermining the peace plan reached in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, on Thursday.
The deal was negotiated by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.
At least 28 civilians and soldiers were reported killed in the latest upsurge in fighting.
Poroshenko expressed pessimism about the prospects for the ceasefire deal.
“Unfortunately after the Minsk agreement, Russia’s offensive has significantly increased. We still think that the agreement is in great danger,” he said during a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
“After what we concluded in Minsk, these are not only attacks against civilians but also against the Minsk agreement.”
The ceasefire, due to take effect from 22:00 GMT Saturday, will be the first test of the commitment by Kiev and pro-Russian separatists to the new peace plan.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
BBC AIRS MAIDAN FIGHTER ADMITTING HE FIRED ON POLICE BEFORE KIEV MASSACRE
BBC AIRS MAIDAN FIGHTER ADMITTING HE FIRED ON POLICE BEFORE KIEV MASSACRE
The BBC has aired footage of an opposition fighter who says he fired at police
Nearly a year after the massacre on Kiev’s Maidan left over 50 dead, the BBC has aired footage of an opposition fighter who says he fired at police in the early morning that day, bringing into question the popular narrative that riot police fired first.
READ MORE: Reuters investigation exposes ‘serious flaws’ in Maidan massacre probe
“I was shooting downward at their feet,” says a man the broadcaster decided to identify as Sergei.
“Of course, I could have hit them in the arm or anywhere. But I didn’t shoot to kill.”
According to Sergei, he took up a position in the Kiev Conservatory, a music academy located on the southwest corner of Kiev’s Independence Square, on February 20.
One day prior, he had met up with a man who offered him two guns. The first was a 12-gauge shotgun, while the other was a hunting rifle – a Saiga that fired high-velocity rounds.
He chose the Saiga and hid it at a post office that, along with the conservatory, was under the protesters’ control. Sergei told the BBC he was later escorted to the Conservatory, where, with a second gunman, he spent 20 minutes before 7:00 am firing on police.
Other witness testimony has corroborated his account.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Fighting rages in run-up to Ukraine ceasefire
Fighting rages in run-up to Ukraine ceasefire
KIEV (Reuters) – Ukraine and Russian-backed rebel fought fiercely for control of a strategic railway junction on Friday despite a new peace deal brokered by Germany and France.
A ceasefire is due to come into effect from Sunday under the agreement, which also envisages a withdrawal of the heavy weaponry responsible for many of the more than 5,000 casualties in the conflict that broke out almost a year ago.
Both sides accused each other of killing civilians. Two people were killed and six wounded when a shell hit a packed cafe in the Kiev-controlled town of Shchastya near rebel-held Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, a local official said, adding that other shells had struck elsewhere in the town.
“The town’s heating system is broken, power lines are damaged as well as the water supply … So this is how a comprehensive ceasefire is prepared for,” the head of the Kiev-controlled administration, Hennadiy Moskal, said online.
The rebels accused Ukrainian forces of shelling the separatist stronghold of Donetsk and the town of Horlivka, where they said on their website that three children had been killed.
They gave no details, and it was not immediately possible to verify any of the reports, which followed threats of further sanctions on Moscow from the United States and Europe if the rebels seize more territory.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Ukraine Ceasefire Deal Agreed After Negotiations All-Nighter; Doubts Remain About Its Implementation
Ukraine Ceasefire Deal Agreed After Negotiations All-Nighter; Doubts Remain About Its Implementation
It would have simply been too much to handle for Europe and the risk off algos if hours after the embarrassing failure of the emergency Eurogroup meeting in Brussels failed to reach any deal involving Greece, the Ukraine ceasefire negotiations in Minsk were also to fall apart. Again. Which is probably why after a marathon session lasting 17 hours, and following repeated trial balloons that a deal had and/or had not been reached, a short while ago all major media outlets were delighted to finally blast some Risk On news namely that leaders of France and Germany brokered a renewed deal to end Ukraine’s 10-month civil war in the separatist eastern region, which means that we have a Minsk-signed Ukraine ceasefire. Again.
As the WSJ reports, “details of the agreement weren’t immediately available” but it involves a cease-fire starting on February 15, Sunday, with each side pulling back heavy weapons, as well as steps to give greater autonomy to the Russia-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. All negotiators, namely Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Germany’s Angela Merkel, and France’s Francois Hollande said there are no alternatives to peaceful solution.
Some more from Bloomberg according to which Ukraine would start getting border control day after regional elections and full control after constitutional reforms, including decentralization, according to copy of document signed by contact group in Minsk, Belarus.
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The US’ Suicidal Strategy On Ukraine
The US’ Suicidal Strategy On Ukraine
We’re alienating allies & risking a much larger war
Ukraine is back in the news cycle and for good reason. The cease-fire has broken, fighting is intensifying, and the western-supported and installed leadership in Kiev is losing the campaign. At this point, the West’s choice is to either double down and bet even more on a badly failing set of policies, or admit it has lost this round and seek to deescalate the situation.
Meanwhile, Europe has finally woken up to the risks and seems to be ready to carve out a different path than the US. A lot hinges on the high level talks that are currently underway between Russia and Europe’s leaders.
As the President Hollande of France put it on Feb 7th, “If we don’t find not just a compromise but a lasting peace agreement, we know perfectly well what the scenario will be. It has a name, it’s called war.”
He’s not simply referring to an escalation of the factions fighting within Ukraine. He’s warning about the real deal: a wider conflict that could easily spread into Europe, and possibly, the embroil powers across the world.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
