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Europe’s Energy Crisis May Not End Until 2024

Europe’s Energy Crisis May Not End Until 2024

  • The EU gas storage units are nearly full giving some relief to fears of shortages
  • Challenges remain for the continent’s energy security as winter arrives
  • The challenges will persist into the winter of 2023-24.

The worst energy security fears of spring and summer as regards the coming winter in the European Union-EU, have been somewhat allayed. Earlier this year when war broke out in Ukraine and it became clear that the conflict would drag on for months, if not years, the EU appeared perilously in danger of a winter “Polar-Geddon,” as cold air gripped the continent. Largely forgotten and retired gas storage caverns, that hadn’t been filled in the expectation of a steady supply from Russia via the Nordstream I and II pipelines, suddenly were thrust front and center into the public eye.  Troubles often come in twos. The next shoe to drop was the deflation of expectations of much of the EU electric grid base load being met by wind and solar farms, when the elements refused to cooperate. Beginning in the middle of last year, it was noted that the wind wasn’t blowing and the output of solar farms was less than predicted. These two events appeared ready to converge upon the EU and presenting it with a stark, and chilly future for the winter of 2022-23.

As is often the case, the fullness of time alleviated the worst fears as energy leaders in the countries that make up the EU, sprang into action. They turned to Norway for an additional 90 bn cubic meters of gas to begin filling the storage caverns. The infrastructure was in place, it was just a matter of price…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Can Europe Avoid A Worst-Case Energy Scenario This Winter?

Can Europe Avoid A Worst-Case Energy Scenario This Winter?

  • European countries have done most things they feasibly could to fill gas storage units.
  • Overall in the EU, gas storage was 92.37% full as of October 17.
  • Weather will be the determining factor in how fast gas in storage would be depleted, so Europe hopes for the best and prays for a milder winter.

Europe’s gas prices fell at the start of this week to the lowest level in three months as storage is fuller than initially expected, LNG cargoes are coming in, and the weather is mild.   But European governments have been preparing for the worst-case scenario in which a colder-than-usual winter could quickly sap gas in storage, send gas prices soaring again, intensify competition for costly LNG with Asia, break consumers’ resolve to conserve energy in freezing temperatures, and force more businesses and industrial processes to halt operations.

Europe has done all it can to ensure the heating and lights will be on this winter, analysts say. Yet this may not be enough—a long cold, windless spell this winter would threaten to unravel all the efforts and lead to mandatory energy-saving targets, rationing, or rolling outages.

The Good News

All that can be feasibly done to ensure alternative gas supply after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Russian halt of gas flows to nearly all EU member states has been done. Floating storage regasification units (FSRUs) are being set up in Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland. Eemshaven in the Netherlands and Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel in Germany are expected to begin operations as early as the end of this year. Europe is paying a lot for LNG supply, outbidding Asia, which was the top buyer of spot cargoes before the war.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Europe’s Permanent Energy Crisis Gets Worse

Humanity’s Biggest Crisis Since WW2?

Humanity’s Biggest Crisis Since WW2?

Lights out, ovens off: Europe preps for winter energy crisis

ADDING FULL NAME OF BUSINESS  An employee pushes bread rolls into one of the gas heated ovens in the producing facility in Cafe Ernst in Neu Isenburg, Germany, Monday, Sept. 19, 2022. Andreas Schmitt, head of the local bakers' guild, said some small bakeries are contemplating giving up due to the energy crisis. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
An employee pushes bread rolls into one of the gas heated ovens in the producing facility in Cafe Ernst in Neu Isenburg, Germany, Monday, Sept. 19, 2022. Andreas Schmitt, head of the local bakers’ guild, said some small bakeries are contemplating giving up due to the energy crisis. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — As Europe heads into winter in the throes of an energy crisis, offices are getting chillier. Statues and historic buildings are going dark. Bakers who can’t afford to heat their ovens are talking about giving up, while fruit and vegetable growers face letting greenhouses stand idle.

In poorer eastern Europe, people are stocking up on firewood, while in wealthier Germany, the wait for an energy-saving heat pump can take half a year. And businesses don’t know how much more they can cut back.

“We can’t turn off the lights and make our guests sit in the dark,” said Richard Kovacs, business development manager for Hungarian burger chain Zing Burger. The restaurants already run the grills no more than necessary and use motion detectors to turn off lights in storage, with some stores facing a 750% increase in electricity bills since the beginning of the year.

With costs high and energy supplies tight, Europe is rolling out relief programs and plans to shake up electricity and natural gas markets as it prepares for rising energy use this winter. The question is whether it will be enough to avoid government-imposed rationing and rolling blackouts after Russia cut back natural gas needed to heat homes, run factories and generate electricity to a tenth of what it was before invading Ukraine.

Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has turned the war into an energy and economic crisis, with prices rising to record highs in recent months and fluctuating wildly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Germany To Nationalize Struggling Uniper In Deepening Energy Crisis

Germany To Nationalize Struggling Uniper In Deepening Energy Crisis

Germany on Wednesday announced a move to nationalize struggling natural gas supplier Uniper SE as it strives to keep the industry functioning in the wake of a global energy crisis, according to Reuters.

Uniper is Germany’s largest importer of Russian NatGas and has suffered tremendous losses after Russian energy giant Gazprom slashed Nord Stream 1’s pipeline capacity to zero, forcing the utility to purchase natgas outside contracts on the open market at record high prices.

Berlin agreed to purchase the remaining stake owned by Uniper’s parent company, Finnish utility Fortum Oyj for  $1.69 (1.70 euro) per share. Buying Fortum’s stake means Germany will own 99% of Uniper. The cost of nationalization comes as Berlin is set to inject 8 billion euros, equivalent to around $8 billion, into the utility.

The move is to keep the lights on across German homes and businesses as the risk of power rationings increases.

“This step has become necessary because the situation has worsened significantly.

 “The state will do everything necessary to keep systemically important companies in Germany stable at all times,” Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, said Wednesday.

Uniper shares crashed by as much as 39% to 2.55 euros. Shares are down 93% on the year…

In July, Berlin injected a whooping 15 billion euros ($14.95 billion) to save the utility though the move to nationalize ahead of winter shows further deterioration in energy security for Europe’s largest economy.

Here’s what Markus Rauramo, CEO and President of Fortum, said about the deal:

“Under the current circumstances in the European energy markets and recognising the severity of Uniper’s situation, the divestment of Uniper is the right step to take, not only for Uniper but also for Fortum.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Liz Truss warned of mass bankruptcies if firms left in limbo over energy bills

Prime minister to lead nation in a minute’s silence to honour the Queen’s legacy ahead of funeral.

Liz Truss is facing a political and economic baptism of fire this week with warnings of mass bankruptcies across the economy – even as the new prime minister prepares to lead the nation in a minute’s silence on Sunday night to honour the Queen’s legacy.

Before the Queen’s funeral at Westminster Abbey on Monday and her burial at St George’s Chapel in Windsor Castle, Truss will appear on the steps of No 10 on Sunday night at 8pm as part of a final national “moment of reflection” on the monarch’s life and legacy.

Downing Street is hoping that people will take part in their homes and on their doorsteps across the UK. Sailors, soldiers and air crews from the armed forces stationed overseas will also pause, including on ships and in bases, in what government officials believe could become a global event.

But with the period of national mourning ending after the funeral, when Truss will fly to New York to attend the UN general assembly, and with MPs returning to Westminster on Wednesday or Thursday, the transition back to normal politics will be sudden and potentially bruising for a prime minister who had only been in office for two days before the Queen’s death.

On Saturday night, leading UK business organisations were renewing pressure on ministers for “absolute clarity” on what help government would offer them with their energy bills and warning of dire consequences if they continued to be left in limbo over the level of support in the medium term.

The new business secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg, will make an announcement on support for business on Wednesday to be followed by a mini-budget by the new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, on Friday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Energy Shock

The world is in energy shock.

European imported coal prices increased 421% before Russia invaded Ukraine. German electric power price increased 518%. European natural gas jumped 765% and Asian spot LNG, 957%.  Since then, it’s gotten even worse.

U.K. natural gas futures price has increased +$99.86 (+574%) from $17.41 to $117.27 per mmBtu just since June 8 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. U.K. natural gas futures price has increased +$99.86 (+574%) from $17.41 to $117.27 per mmBtu since June 8. Source: MarketWatch, CME & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Now Europe’s energy crisis is on a path to even worse outcomes.

Russia announced on September 4 that gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would not resume in full until the sanctions against Russia were lifted. Finland’s Economic Affairs Minister stated ,

“This has had the ingredients for a kind of a Lehman Brothers of energy industry.”
–Mika Lintilä

Many governments are planning to subsidize consumers with price caps and to help industry with loans. My friend and colleague Nate Hagens recently noted that,

“Europe is committing economic suicide.”
–Nate Hagens

That is because these bailouts are happening at a time of economic contraction, high inflation and rising interest rates. That means increased and unproductive debt at a time that states cannot afford its service except with more debt.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently stated,

“What we are currently living through is a kind of major tipping point or a great upheaval … we are living the end of what could have seemed an era of abundance…the end of the abundance of products of technologies that seemed always available.”
–Emmanuel Macron

Meanwhile, OPEC+ has decided to cut production by 100,000 barrels of oil per day reversing 15 months of output increases. Although oil is relatively less expensive for Europeans than natural gas and coal, many countries have begun using diesel as a substitute to generate electric power.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Chief: Harsh Winter May Spark Social Unrest In EU Amid Energy Crisis

IMF Chief: Harsh Winter May Spark Social Unrest In EU Amid Energy Crisis

A number of countries in Europe may experience social unrest if the upcoming winter is harsh amid an economic crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Wednesday.

“There is certainly fear of recession in some countries, or even if it is not recession, that it would feel like recession this winter,” said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF.

“And if Mother Nature decides not to cooperate, and the winter is actually harsh, that could lead to some social unrest,” she added.

Attending the 2022 “Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture” held in Washington, D.C., Georgieva pointed out that Europe is directly affected by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, saying the war has led to “horrible” economic consequences and added fuel to fears of recession in some countries.

Georgieva said the current situation meant that the European Central Bank needed to be “mindful of the necessity to keep the economy going,” while also remaining persistent in fighting broad-based inflation.

“Inflation is stubborn, it is more broad-based than we thought it would be,” Georgieva said. “And what it means is … we need central bankers to be as stubborn in fighting it as inflation has demonstrably been.”

Second-Order Effects

Georgieva noted at the event that the global economy had two consecutive shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which contributed to surging prices and a cost-of-living crisis.

The disruptions in the flows of Russian gas to Europe remain the primary cause of Europe’s current energy crisis. The continent has relied upon cheap Russian energy for years to power factories, generate electricity, and heat homes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe Is Facing Energy Disaster And It’s Going To Bleed Over Into The US

Europe Is Facing Energy Disaster And It’s Going To Bleed Over Into The US

Though the situation is ever changing, currently the Russian government has announced an official shutdown of ALL natural gas exports to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and plans to maintain the shutdown until the EU ends its economic sanctions over the war in Ukraine. This means that around 40% of Europe’s energy resources are now gone, with supply chain issues surrounding the other 60% and prices skyrocketing for households and businesses.

Back in March in an article titled ‘The Biggest Lies (So Far) Surrounding Russia And Ukraine’ I noted that:

…There’s something else the media does not talk about much, which is Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and natural gas. If you want to see actual price inflation caused by Russia, let the EU ban Russian oil imports, or watch as Putin cuts off the supply. Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas for about 40% of overall energy production. They cannot even survive a single year without it. If Russia retaliated and blocked energy exports to Europe, the the EU would have to siphon oil from many other countries, reducing global supply dramatically. This would cause gas prices to explode to double or even triple current levels.”

Back in April of this year in my article ‘The Media Is Ignoring These Two Events Which Could Cause Economic Collapse’ I predicted that:

…The Russian economy is not about to fold anytime soon, and now the EU, which is reliant on Russian oil and gas exports for 40% of their energy needs, is about to face economic doom unless they submit to paying for energy in rubles (which they won’t) or find a replacement source for gas and oil (which is impossible)…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dead of Winter

Dead of Winter

There cannot be a crisis next week. My schedule is already full.” – Henry Kissinger

In the United Kingdom, a grassroots protest movement has broken out in response to the ongoing energy crisis. With the bill from its failed national policies coming due, ordinary citizens are organizing campaigns to ensure they are not the ones left holding the bag. The mission of Don’t Pay UK is to gather at least one million commitments from Her Majesty’s loyal subjects to simply stop paying their energy bills as of October 1, 2022. At the time of this writing, Don’t Pay UK has passed 130,000 signatures. We expect that number to grow.

In reading a recent profile of the movement by Euronews Green, we were struck by the framing of the crisis by some of the movement’s organizers. This quote from the piece and the photo we have reproduced below caught our attention (emphasis added throughout):

Lewis Ford, an organiser from Hull, agrees the movement is ‘a lot about solidarity’, especially for those forced to choose between heating their home and feeding their family.

‘We’re already talking about the idea of setting up warm banks, which is an absolutely preposterous idea,’ the 31-year-old IT consultant tells Euronews Green. ‘We’re one of the richest nations. So, it’s not like there’s no money, it’s the fact that the money is being kept in one space.’”

Unicorn hunter | Euronews Green

Sadly for Mr. Ford and the well-intended but totally naïve young woman holding out hope that the unicorn concept of “cheaper cleaner greener” energy is actually a thing, they are both victims of insidious propaganda…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Widespread Civil Unrest” Looming in UK Over Cost of Living Crisis

“Widespread Civil Unrest” Looming in UK Over Cost of Living Crisis

Movement to stop paying bills snowballs.

SOPA Images via Getty Images

The chance of “widespread civil unrest” occurring in the UK as a result of people being unable to afford to pay their bills due to the cost of living crisis is “inevitable,” according to one campaigner.

With energy prices set to soar even higher in October as a result of the sanctions on Russia, many Brits have resolved to refuse to pay their bills as part of a growing backlash some are comparing to the poll tax riots.

London was hit with violent riots back in 1990 in response to the government’s efforts to introduce the poll tax, and the new levy was eventually scrapped after a coalition of interest groups amongst both the working class and the middle class combined to defeat it.

A similar movement under the umbrella of the Don’t Pay organization is now urging people to cancel their direct debits in October if energy prices continue to rise.

Average energy bills in the UK for dual fuel are expected to rise to £3,615 by January 2023, an increase of 283 per cent on March levels.

“Millions of us won’t be able to afford food and bills this winter,” asserts the Don’t Pay manifesto. “We cannot afford to let that happen. We demand a reduction of bills to an affordable level. We will cancel our direct debits from October 1st if we are ignored.”

However, others have warned that a mass refusal to pay bills will only result in energy prices soaring even higher because more companies will leave the market, allowing fewer corporations to create pricing monopolies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bigger than you can imagine

Bigger than you can imagine

What I “remember” of the 1970s is actually very limited.  Most of what I think of as “my memories” have, in fact, been generated by various retrospective media coverage of the period which provide the framework into which my scraps of memory have been slotted.  And the younger someone is, the more their view of the 1970s will have been shaped by media rather than memory.  And so, it has been all too easy for today’s lazy news coverage to frame our current woes through the lens of an imaginary 1970s.

The crisis now unfolding, however, is entirely different to the 1970s in one crucial respect… The 1970s crisis was largely artificial.  When all is said and done, the oil shock was nothing more than the emerging OPEC cartel asserting its newfound leverage following the peak of continental US oil production…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Worst Of Global Energy Crisis Could Be Approaching, IEA Head Warns

Worst Of Global Energy Crisis Could Be Approaching, IEA Head Warns

The bullish narrative for oil markets builds as the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and a new Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) report, all separately, warned Tuesday about a further global squeeze on energy supplies.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the audience at a global energy forum in Sydney that “the world has never witnessed such a major energy crisis in terms of its depth and its complexity.” 

Birol continued and offered this apocalyptic warning:

“We might not have seen the worst of it yet … this is affecting the entire world.”

He explained that the global energy system is fracturing, and many factors contribute to this, including geopolitics, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“And as a result, we see that the entire energy system is going through a crisis

“Oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity prices, they’re all going up of the roof. Why? Very simple. Russia, the country that invaded Ukraine, is the largest exporter of oil and natural gas.”

Birol also said winter in Europe would be “very, very difficult,” adding this may have severe implications for the global economy.

Besides Birol’s warning, OPEC’s first oil-market outlook for 2023 suggests no relief, and crude output would need to increase even though many of its 15 members are already pumping at or near full capacity. OPEC expects global oil demand growth to exceed supplies by 1 million b/d next year.

The outlook for 2023 indicates supply strains will persist, and increasing production is desperately needed (something the group could have trouble with because of years of underinvestment and political instability).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

France Sees Nuclear Energy Output Plummet At The Worst Possible Moment

France Sees Nuclear Energy Output Plummet At The Worst Possible Moment

  • France, the European Union’s leader in nuclear energy, is seeing a massive decline in output.
  • Though it has been relatively unfazed by the bloc’s ongoing energy crisis, declining nuclear production could pose a significant problem in the coming months.
  • The collapse of French nuclear power generation and Putin’s retaliatory cutback on energy exports to Europe could be disastrous for the continent.

France has long been one of the world’s greatest champions of nuclear energy. France leads the European Union in nuclear production, with the most productive reactors in the bloc, and relies on nuclear power for a larger share of its energy mix than any other country in the world. It makes sense that France should lead the charge for nuclear energy development as they have long been the global poster child for safe and reliable nuclear energy – until now.

A recent flurry of unexpected issues at the Électricité de France (EDF), the state nuclear power operator representing the largest nuclear fleet in Europe, has caused French nuclear energy output to tumble to its lowest levels in 30 years. Around half of the EDF’s massive nuclear fleet has been taken offline, delivering a massive blow to the EU’s energy independence and security in the midst of a worldwide energy crisis.

France has become increasingly reliant on nuclear power in recent years. French President Emmanuel Macron has given nuclear energy an even bigger boost in his time in office. Indeed, in February, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he announced a  €52 billion plan to revitalize the country’s “nuclear adventure.” He has also fought for the inclusion of the emissions-free power source as a “green investment” in the nomenclature of the European Union as the continent moves toward establishing its green energy budget for the coming years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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