Recognizing the existence of world scale problems takes time. For instance, the above Google “Ngram” search show that world hunger was not recognized as a serious problem until relatively recent times. However, starting in the 1960s, considerable efforts were dedicated to increasing agricultural yields (the “Green Revolution”), with a certain degree of success. But was the problem really solved? Or was it only postponed – or even worsened – as a result of agriculture becoming totally dependent on fossil fuels? Something similar may happen in the future for the problem of climate change; it may be recognized, at last, but that doesn’t mean it will be solved.
Apart from a small number of diehard deniers, most people are perfectly aware that we have a serious problem with climate change. The public is just confused by a bombardment of contradictory statements pushed in the media, but probably that all what is needed to change the terms of the debate is just a push in the right direction. The pope’s encyclic on climate – expected for this week – could do just that, reaching a “tipping point” in the general perception of the problem.After the tipping point, a consensus may be reached that the idea that climate change doesn’t exist or is not caused by human activity is not just wrong, but positively dangerous for society. Something comparable to such ideas as – say – that there is really no evidence that smoking causes cancers, that wearing a seat belt while riding a car is useless, and that crack is no more dangerous than coffee as a recreational drug.
Of course, we can’t be sure that the pope’s encyclic will have this effect; but, suppose it does, then what can we expect to happen? Optimistically, we could think that most of the work is done and that, from then on, something serious and effective will be done to stop global warming. Unfortunately, things will not be so easy.
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